Teaser (1.4 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) ---

NEW MEXICO ST. +14.5

OREGON ST. +10.5

New Mexico St --- The Aggies are finally getting healthy (returned their Top 2 WR and Top RB a couple weeks ago, along with a couple defensive players) and it showed against Fresno St (easily covered the 17 points).  The Aggies return to Las Cruces for their final home game of the year and they are not just playing out the string.  La. Tech just gave up 38 points at home to Utah St., so Holbrook (600 passing yards last two games) and company should have more than enough firepower to keep this game close.  La. Tech is a far different team on the road (the lone road win came in a driving rain storm against a depleted San Jose St. squad), so I'm going with the Aggies for the outright win (the 14.5 points I'm getting are just insurance).

NEW MEXICO ST.  34     LA. TECH   31

Oregon St --- The Beavers head into Tucson with visions of Roses dancing through their heads.  Arizona is always tough at home, boasting a solid defense and offensive firepower.  Oregon St. has been excellent on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and it took a couple games for the all the new players on their defensive front seven to get acclimated to the system.  The running game with Jacquizz Rodgers and the impressive special teams unit (standout WR's James Rodgers and Sammie Stroughter) will be enough to win a very close, hard-fought game in the Desert (and, once again, the 10.5 points I'm getting are just insurance). 

OREGON ST.  31     ARIZONA   27

Teaser (1.2 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) ---

OLE MISS +12

FLA. ATL. +11.5

Ole Miss --- Who is the better team in this game?  If you ask me, it's Mississippi.  Ole Miss has an incredibly balanced attack (203 passing / 188 rushing) led by Snead and his 17-11 ratio.  Meanwhile, LSU's Lee seems to throw a pick-six every other quarter.  Ole Miss is stout against the run (3.0 ypc), which should help neutralize LSU's only real weapon (Scott).  LSU is 1-14 ATS as an SEC Home Favorite (inlcuding 9 straight ATS losses), and Ole Miss has lost the 3 games in Baton Rouge by a combined 7 points against much better LSU teams than this current one.  (My teaser to 12 points is just insurance).  Another dog will be barking!

OLE MISS   27     LSU   24

Florida Atlantic --- Shhhh.  Don't t look now, but FAU has won 4 straight games, including a dominating performance against ULL (up 40-7 in 4Q) featuring a brilliant performance by the resurgent Rusty Smith (17-26, 290, 4-0 Ratio).  Meanwhile, Arkansas St. has lost 5 straight ATS after playing 4 of the last 5 on the road.  Ark. St. is playing at home off a bye, but I like the surging Owls to continue their hopes for a bowl! (Getting 11.5 is just a bonus). 

FLORIDA ATL.  30    ARK. ST.   24

Parlay (.5 UNITS to WIN 3 UNITS) ---

UTEP +15.5

NOTRE DAME -20

TULSA -29

UTEP --- I know this is not a very popular play on the boards here, but I love Vittatoe and his 27-6 ratio (Houston feasted on 5 Tulsa TO's).  The explosive UTEP offense is avg. 38 ppg over the last four, and UTEP is coming off two straight wins.  UTEP already has two good road wins under their belt (So. Miss. and ULL), and they will keep it within 2 scores as they look to become bowl eligible.

HOUSTON   42     UTEP   34

Notre Dame --- I liked what I saw from ND against Navy.  They really established the ground game, and hopefully the weather will allow them to throw all over the porous Orange D (allowing over 200 rushing and passing ypg!) .  ND vs. teams with losing records is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.  'Cuse was held to 150 yards of offense at home last week, and barring another 5 TO's by ND, this is a blowout. 

NOTRE DAME   41     SYRACUSE   13

Tulsa --- The Golden Hurricane avg. over 61 ppg at home!  Tulane just has way too many injuries to be competitive in this game.  The Green Wave have lost 4 straight by 17+ and have allowed over 1,000 yards of offense in their last two games (Houston outgained them by over 400 yards!).  Tulsa is 4-0 ATS at home this year and that trend continues in this mismatch.

TULSA   63     TULANE   17

Parlay (.5 UNITS to WIN 3 UNITS) ---

TEXAS TECH +7

PURDUE -12.5

OHIO ST. -20.5

Texas Tech --- Oklahoma has a potent offense and a D that has thrived on TO's (15 takeaways in last 4 games).  However, OU will have a very hard time slowing down the Tech offense because Harrell does not turn the ball over (36-5 Ratio).  The last team that didn't turn the ball over against OU?  Texas.  OU was outgained by Texas on a neutral field and TT outgained Texas by over 200 yards at home.  I'll take the points here.

TEXAS TECH   41     OKLAHOMA   38

Purdue --- Unlike Indiana, Purdue is not just playing out the string.  They outgained Michigan by 222 yards and battled Mich. St. and Iowa on the road, while the Hoosiers were busy getting outgained by almost 600 yards in their last two games.  Painter was 24-30 for 190 yards and 2 TD vs. Iowa, and the Boilermakers look to send out Tiller in style (Indiana is just the patsy to do it against). 

PURDUE   38     INDIANA   17

Ohio St. --- This looks to be a very popular pick on the boards and I can see why.  Ohio St.'s D will put 8 in the box to force Michigan to throw (which they can't).  On the other side of the ball, Michigan will have a difficult time slowing down Beanie Wells and containing Pryor on 3rd Down.  Look for Ohio St. to give the frenzied home crowd the blood they are looking for.

OHIO ST.   38     MICHIGAN   6

NORTH TEXAS +20   ---   Big dog play right here.  Mid. Tenn. has not scored more than 24 points in a game this year (though they will against NT, the offense is not very good) and North Texas has enough firepower to keep it within 3 scores coming off a bye.

Washington -6.5   ---   I want a reason to watch the Apple Cup, and the Huskies have actually looked like a 1-A football team at times this year (unlike Wazzu). 

FINAL CARD:

Teaser (1.4 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) ---

NEW MEXICO ST. +14.5

OREGON ST. +10.5

Teaser (1.2 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) ---

OLE MISS +12

FLA. ATL. +11.5

Teaser (1.2 UNITS to WIN 1 UNIT) ---

CAL -2.5

RICE -2

Parlay (.5 UNITS to WIN 3 UNITS) ---

UTEP +15.5

NOTRE DAME -20

TULSA -29

Parlay (.5 UNITS to WIN 3 UNITS) ---

TEXAS TECH +7

PURDUE -12.5

OHIO ST. -20.5

STRAIGHT BETS:

UNLV -6.5

RUTGERS -17

IOWA -6

NORTH TEXAS +20

INDIANA / PURDUE - OVER 51

RUTGERS / ARMY - OVER 44

WASHINGTON -6.5

GL TO EVERYONE! 

This day shows exactly why straight bets are preferable to teasers and parlays ...

Week 13 --- Down 1.6 Unites

I was 4-2 on my parlay plays.  Unfortunately, the two losses were in separate parlays.  UTEP, TULSA, PURDUE, OHIO ST. went just like I thought (see writeup), but ND and TT were disasters 

I was 5-1 on my teaser plays.  However, I only made .8 Units when I would have had 3.9 units betting them straight.    RICE, CAL, OLE MISS, NEW MEXICO ST., OREGON ST. - Never really had to sweat any of these with the points I was getting.  However, Fla Atl. got beat worse than the score indicates. 

Those were my top 12 plays of the week, and instead of going 9-3 straight up, I had to get crazy with them ...   Went 3-4 on the straight bets.  Note to self: don't bet games just because they are on TV (Wash/Wazzu) and don't take big dogs unless they are actually decent team (see UTEP vs. NORTH TEXAS) 

Oh well, next week it's on to bigger and better games!  I'll release some plays and writeups (I think I capped my top 12 plays pretty well).  Hope everybody had a good weekend, and feel free to give me your thoughts on my card (this week and next's week's when it comes out).  BOL, and I love NCAAF!