Whodeysb09 says:
Kinda agree leaned Miami, not playing anymore.  The line is telling me that they are expecting a blowout.  Miami's secondary allows 8.5 yards a completion one of the worst, maybe the worst in the NFL.  They haven't quite played a passing attack like this. 

Glmm says:

MIght look at the Pats TT..Should be below 30.

alwayson22 says:

Glmm & WhiteRussian -  The over could be a strong play, both on the NE team total and the game.  If the NE team total is under 30, I'm jumping all over that one. 

BOL to everyone! 

GunShard says:

This game is most likely an OVER according to the trend.

Last season trend:

Dolphins @ Patriots. Dolphins won.

Patriots @ Dolphins. Patriots won.

Also be aware that the Patriots will look stronger statistically than they appear because of the 59-0 score, Titans game.

Dolphins have a smarter coach than the Patriots in my opinion.

 

alwayson22 says:

Nutter,

You do make several valid points.  Miami had a great ball control game against the Colts (over 45 minutes!) and they really should have beat the Saints.

That being said, I think this is a good situational play against Miami.  They just had to travel up North last week and only gained 100 total yards against the Jets.  I think the fact that they somehow managed to win that game gives the Patriots some added line value.  I'm basically looking at it as the Patriots off a bye, at home, against a team making a second consecutive roadie up north.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Miami kept it to single digits, but I strongly feel that this game has blowout written all over it.

heatfanz says:
This is a 100% stone cold LOCK. Pats will win this one big.

daprospecta says:
Call me crazy but have you watched the Phins play lately....not saying they cover but i don't think they will get blown out but just thoughts

Nutter1313 says:

Once again this is coming from a complete dolphins homer, but I honestly believe that the dolphins could take this one.  The Pats run d is just so-so, the dolphins run game has the potential to chew up  a lot of clock.   The Pats run O is just so-so (especially now without F Taylor who was getting most of the carries before getting hurt) and the Dolphins run D is pretty darn good.  The one thing that concerns me is that the Dolphins get too conservative on D (known to happen in the 2nd halfs of games; cost us against the Saints and almost cost us last week against the Jets) and Brady has too much time to pick apart our questionable secondary.  So I think my feeling of a Dolphins victory has some impartial supporting evidence.  If I was you, I would seriously play the value and put some money on the Dolphins ML.

Nutter1313 says:


I remember another thread where everyone was all over the Pats jock during week 2 when they played the Jets saying some of the same things; Belichek was some ridiculous record against rookie qbs and the Pats were going to pass all over the Jets.  I think we know how that turned out. 

mrusso says:

The Pats' will roll tomorrow. No one is better than Bellicek at game preparation, especially when given an extra week. His resume speaks for himself.

While their 2 previous victories were over lightly regarded TENN and TB, as you former (or current) baseball players like myself know, sometimes a couple of rounds of batting practice to get your timing down and confidence back is all you need, especially when your cleanup hitter is named Brady.

Last weeks MIA win over the Jets was truly fortunate. Underachiever Ginn runs 2 kickoffs back, J.T. had a flashback from years past returning a fumble for a TD. Yes, these are all parts of the game, just not parts you can consistently count on, especially with MIA. Ginn is no Devin Hester or Dante Hall. He's not even a Wes Welker, especially when it comes to hands and route running.

Mia's young secondary has shown promise, no question. But when faced with the challenge of a top tier QB (Peyton, Brees), they looked like a high school defense and were completely shredded. It won't be any different with Brady, believe me.

I've been a MIA fan since probably before many of you were even around. Betting nearly as long too. My avatar is not just some hot MIA cheerleader for no particular reason.

For those of  you who like teasers, throw the PATS' in with your other favorite game, mine will be the Giants, who I expect to rebound resoundingly against SD this week. You'll be cashing in on Monday. 

Good Luck to all!!!

 

Plisskin76 says:
60 and sunny for real!

alwayson22 says:
I think NE puts up at least 31 points in this game.  I will definitely be backing up my NE -10.5 bet with an over play  

LarryTate says:

few points...

I do not believe there was anything "fluky" about the Dolphins win last week.  Special teams is a part of football and shouldn't be devalued.  The Jets outgained Miami 4 to 1 b/c Miami's offense didn't see the field for about a Quarter and a half in the 2nd half.  Yet they still put up 21 points thanks to D and ST.  When the offense did finally get in the game and with Mia only up 5, they drove right down the field and put up a TD in a big spot.

I think you have to be careful when you play the "lucky" or "fluky" card.  I can certainly say the Saints and Indy wins against Mia were of the same variety.  Or the Pats win against Balt could be considered fluky when you consider Mason dropped a sure 1st down catch in the redzone with under 2mins left that killed a drive and ended Balts chances.

As obvious as it is to all of us that NE had a bye and will be well prepared for the wildcard, it's as obvious to Mia as well.  I wouldn't be surprised and almost expect Mia to use a new wrinkle and hope to force NE to adjust to it.

Mia has been in games against better competition, and I although I'm not saying NE isn't good, they aren't nearly as good as their previous SB teams.  Especially on Defense.

NE is more talented and simply the better team, I would never expect Mia to win this game but I also don't expect Mia to be overwhelmed. 

If NE covers it'll be more nerve racking than easy.  This isn't Tenn or TB, it won't be 44-7 going into the 4th...