amd's Blog

I realize the NFL is a passing league but....

By amd | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 06:42 AM   9 comments

Has the oddsmakers overcompensated on some of these totals?

Why is the Saints total 53? The absence/injury to Henderson has really limited New Orleans big playthreat down field. And, with the absence of Meachem, I really don't like the Saints chances to spread the field.

Vikings/Lions total 49... Are you kidding me? I don't care how bad the Lions secondary are, Ponder is NOT going to light the scoreboard and assuming the Vikings pass rush will be effective. the lions will utilize the clock by running more of a west coast offense rather than throwing downfield on every play.

Raiders/Broncos total 49....C"mon. The Raiders put up points last week against a tough Steelers defense but let's not kid ourselves, Carson Palmer's play last week was an anomoly. Sure, the Raiders might cover but it will be because of McFaddens legs and not Palmers arm. Teams are finally realizing that Mannings arm is actually a deficit downfield. Nickel defense from the Raiders should make things rough for Manning. Denver backers better hope McGehee is healthy today.

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elsonic says:
9/30/2012 7:44:13 AM
 Good work bro......I agree
thawv says:
9/30/2012 8:04:49 AM
You're a gambler amd, so I'm quite sure that you already know that the lines are not based on how much vegas thinks a team will win by, or how many points they think will be scored in a game.  The lines are a number that will get action on both sides.

In the 3 games that you mentioned, clearly all 3 should have been even higher.  Det has 60% bet on the over.  NO has 70% bet on the over.  Den has 59% bet on the over.  They need to put the lines high enough where people will want to take the under also.  They're clearly not high enough.
thawv says:
9/30/2012 8:11:12 AM
To expound a little on my previous post...I get the feeling that you are referring to this from a bettor's standpoint, and not the lines maker's standpoint.  If you like the under in these games, which it appears you do, then you have a great point.

amd says:
9/30/2012 8:11:26 AM

thawv...Thanks for the post. Yes, I understand your point but the oddsmakers still have to determine the number that will be a reasonable 50/50 split on an initial opening line. As a public bettor, most people don't cap a number and then look at an oddsmakers total....they look at a total and then cap off that number....big difference.

And...where are you getting these percentages? Who made these percentages? How do you know they're accurate? Not trying to be a smartass....just not an easy believer.

amd says:
9/30/2012 8:11:55 AM
And yes, I like the unders.
thawv says:
9/30/2012 8:25:05 AM

I use a site that tracks off shore wagers.  It gives how many total wagers bet on each game, along with the percentages of the side, total, and exotics.   I can only assume that it's accurate.  But I guess we really never know.

I don't like to be on the side of the public.  I would rather be on Vegas' side.  There are always a few heavily bet games where the public is all over one side.  That's when I go the other way.  Especially if Vegas doesn't move the line or moves it the other way!
amd says:
9/30/2012 8:32:30 AM
Again, I appreciate your response but another question I have is what constitutes your percentages that you follow? Are those percentages related to the volume of bettors or actual money wagered? I couldn't care less if I saw 70% of the public on a team because it's the sharps in the 30th percentile that are moving lines and totals which is why oddsmakes are obviously very careful when setting initial lines.
haukiann says:
9/30/2012 8:39:11 AM
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE post your final bet on Sunday please . Please . I need to win some money for fixing my broke old shit car for school. PLEASE !!! Thank you so much AMD so mu...c......c......c.....h
thawv says:
9/30/2012 8:49:51 AM

The percentage of bets on a team, not the amount of money bet on a team.  The later is what's important.  Since I'm not privy to the amount bet, I can deduce that if the public is pounding a side, and they don't move the line, or move it the other way, it's likely sharp money causing that action.  But as you already know, it's not quite that easy.  LOL.......

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