andarmac99's Blog

Posted Sunday, September 02, 2012 12:56 PM

NFL Week 1

Denver +1

Flashback to last January and the Steelers were a banged up and weary squad coming into Denver to play a playoff game in which they ultimately lost. Now with the exception of Big Ben having a healthy left foot this time around let's look at the current state of the Steelers: Due to injuries and 2nd round pick/presumptive starting LT Mike Adams sucking ass the Steelers will enter this game with exactly 1 starter on the offensive line that was in that same position when they started training camp a few weeks ago. What was supposed to be a revamped offensive line perhaps finally fixing a longtime weakness the Steelers instead have more questions on this unit filled with retreads than they did at the end of last season. Starting at RB last January was Isaac Redman who will get the start again here but he's missed two full weeks of practice with a bad hip and now has an ankle injury on top of that. Mike Wallace actually played in that game in January but with an entire new offense to learn it will be a challenge considering he is just now reporting to camp. This offense suddenly doesn't look too great, especially with an offensive line held together by duct tape going up against a good pass rush. Defensively the Steelers also have problems. James Harrison may not even play in this game after preseason knee surgery. And Ryan Clark will most likely miss the game as well with a sickle-cell disease. That means Pittsburgh will start two new starters in the secondary. T... [More]

Posted Sunday, January 17, 2010 08:13 AM

The Vikings Defense.........

I know the postseason is a "new" season and all situational spots are different but I'm just wondering what Vikings backers have to say about this:

If you throw out the garbage game at the end of the year where the Giants quit, did you know Minnesota only played 6 games all season against offenses ranked in the Top 20? That's right, they played 10 of 16 games this year against offenses in the bottom 12 of the league (counted the Giants here because they quit).

Look what their defense did (or didn't do) against those 6 offenses in the Top 20:

Points allowed: 23, 31, 27, 26, 30, and 26 for an average of 27.1 per game.

Yards allowed: 424, 448, 259, 331, 398, and 397 for an average of 376 per game.

Opposing QB completion %: 70, 65, 54, 63, 69, and 64 for a total of 137 passes complete out of 212 or 65%.

Opposing QB Yards Per Attempt: 10.4, 9.0, 6.7, 7.0, 8.9, and 9.1

Opposing Yards Per Carry allowed: 4.8, 4.5, 5.6, 4.7, 4.5 and 3.1

Opposing QB Ratings: 110.6, 109.2, 87.8, 108.5, 127.7, and 123.2

Opposing QB TD/INT Ratio: 14-1


The Vikings went 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in those games with 2 wins coming over Green Bay and the other on a last second missed FG by Baltimore.





Posted Sunday, January 03, 2010 07:44 AM

Telling trends about playoff teams that tank in Week 17

We've all heard or know how big momentum is in the game of football and how tough it is to get it back after it is lost whether that be through a loss or a break in action (bye). But check this out:


Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990 with the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference owning a first round bye there have been 23 times where a #1 or #2 seed has LOST their final regular season game (more often than not resting starters and tanking) and then had their bye. But unbelievably only 3 of those 23 #1 or #2 seeds that lost their final regular season game went on to win the Super Bowl!!!! 3 out of 23 in 19 years! I think that speaks volumes as to how big of a factor momentum is in this game and just how utterly STUPID it is to rest starters and tank your final regular season game if you have a bye after that, effectively killing any momentum.


The 3 winners?


1999 Rams

1994 49ers

1991 Redskins


It's interesting to note that it has not happened in 10 years and two of the wins came back in an age where power teams ruled and a wild card or lower seed making noise was almost an afterthought.


Look what has happened just since 2002 (when the NFL expanded to 8 division winners and only 4 wild cards got in):


Since 2002 there have been 12  #1 or #2 seeds that have lost their final regu... [More]

Posted Friday, January 01, 2010 02:21 AM

Warning to #1 and #2 Seeds Tanking this Week...................Check This Out......

We've all heard or know how big momentum is in the game of football and how tough it is to get it back after it is lost whether that be through a loss or a break in action (bye). But check this out:


Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990 with the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference owning a first round bye there have been 23 times where a #1 or #2 seed has LOST their final regular season game (more often than not resting starters and tanking) and then had their bye. But unbelievably only 3 of those 23 #1 or #2 seeds that lost their final regular season game went on to win the Super Bowl!!!! 3 out of 23 in 19 years! I think that speaks volumes as to how big of a factor momentum is in this game and just how utterly STUPID it is to rest starters and tank your final regular season game if you have a bye after that, effectively killing any momentum.


The 3 winners?


1999 Rams

1994 49ers

1991 Redskins


It's interesting to note that it has not happened in 10 years and two of the wins came back in an age where power teams ruled and a wild card or lo... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 02, 2009 06:19 AM

NFL Week 1 Plays

Last year posted: 74-53 (58.2%)

Sitting here half drunk and decided to punch in some of the plays I was looking at for Week 1 so I figured I might as well post them too. Plus, I'm a degen and football is cool.


Dallas -3

Seattle -7

Arizona -6.5

Washington/NY Giants UNDER 39


Square looking plays for the most part early but that's why I'm on em early as I think these lines probably won't get any better for me and there's a good possibility they get worse. Other Week 1 plays I'll probably be on where I should get better or equal lines than what is currently available: Titans, Browns, Packers.


Football, I sport I can bet on and make money on and actually watch without wanting to shoot myself unlike, you know, baseball.


GL


Posted Wednesday, August 26, 2009 04:08 PM

Football's great variable................................................The Turnover

One of the interesting things about Football is just how big of an effect Turnovers have on the game, especially at the professional level. We've all seen the stats: "If a team has a +3 turnover margin in a game they win the game 90+% of the time", etc. But just how big of an effect do Turnovers have on a season, how many games is a large deviation from the mean (+ or -) in the turnover department worth?

I say turnovers are a variable because they really can't be controlled. It is true that good defenses force them and good offenses don't give them up but that margin doesn't really count for a whole lot when you consider the majority of turnovers happen to be "right place right time". Think about it, how many interceptions are the result of tipped balls just happening to land in the right hands? And how many times does a rolling fumble happen to roll a defensive players way when it could have easily bounced the other way?

The mean # for turnover margin for a team in a season is 0. Anything other than that is a deviation and IMO anything + or -10 is a significant deviation that I would classify as an anomaly. If a team has for instance a -15 turnover ratio in one season that probability is extremely high that in the following season their turnover margin will be significantly greater as it "regresses to the mean" of 0. Regression to the mean is a key element of statistical analysis that is often overlooked in sports betting but many astute ... [More]

Posted Monday, August 04, 2008 03:08 PM

Colorado Rockies Magical Run .................Part 2???

It's a bit more of a longshot than last season but I think we could see another Rockies push and just maybe to the playoffs?


With the glut of good teams in the East and Central divisions I doubt that the Rockies could get the wildcard so they would have to go through the NL West.


At this time last season the Rockies were 56-53 and 3.5 games back of the wildcard but had to jump over 5 other teams. This year in order to win the NL West they will have to jump over just 2 teams but this season they are 3.5 games farther out as they are currently 7 games behind the D-Backs with a record of 51-62. From this point on last season the Rockies went 33-20 (.623 win%) down the stretch to get into the tiebreaker game. So why do I think the Rockies can make a legitimate playoff push, you ask? Well it's simple, it all has to do with the schedule and health.


The Rockies remaining schedule is a joke. First of all they play 56% of their remaining games at home which is a big boost as they are 31-22 at home this season. Secondly of their remaining 49 games they play a whooping 25 (51%!) of them against easily the 3 worst teams in the NL in San Diego, San Francisco and Washington. An important factor with all those teams is that they cannot score to save their lives right now it will be a big struggle against the raking Rockies (which i'll get to shortly). The Rockies also have a combined 1... [More]

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