andarmac99's Blog

Colorado Rockies Magical Run .................Part 2???

By andarmac99 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, August 04, 2008 03:08 PM   9 comments

It's a bit more of a longshot than last season but I think we could see another Rockies push and just maybe to the playoffs?


With the glut of good teams in the East and Central divisions I doubt that the Rockies could get the wildcard so they would have to go through the NL West.


At this time last season the Rockies were 56-53 and 3.5 games back of the wildcard but had to jump over 5 other teams. This year in order to win the NL West they will have to jump over just 2 teams but this season they are 3.5 games farther out as they are currently 7 games behind the D-Backs with a record of 51-62. From this point on last season the Rockies went 33-20 (.623 win%) down the stretch to get into the tiebreaker game. So why do I think the Rockies can make a legitimate playoff push, you ask? Well it's simple, it all has to do with the schedule and health.


The Rockies remaining schedule is a joke. First of all they play 56% of their remaining games at home which is a big boost as they are 31-22 at home this season. Secondly of their remaining 49 games they play a whooping 25 (51%!) of them against easily the 3 worst teams in the NL in San Diego, San Francisco and Washington. An important factor with all those teams is that they cannot score to save their lives right now it will be a big struggle against the raking Rockies (which i'll get to shortly). The Rockies also have a combined 16 games remaining against Arizona and the Dodgers, the two teams the Rockies are chasing in the NL West so with wins against these teams they can make up lots of ground quite quickly. It's also worth noting that of those 16 games against the D-backs and Dodgers, the Rockies will be the home team in 9 of them. Outside of those 16 games with the D-Backs and Dodgers, the Rocks don't play a single game against anybody that is even close to .500. Their remaining games are against the Braves, Reds and Astros.


The Rockies are finally close to full health. They have been banged up all season and now with their ace Jeff Francis coming back they are now just a Todd Helton away from being last years team.......except they're better. This lineup is fully healthy and Helton's replacements (Stewart/Baker) I think are actually better hitters. Holliday is raking like a machine and Tulowitki is finally healthy and is hitting over .400 since his return. Since the return of the healthy lineup the Rockies have scored 5 or more runs in 16 of their 17 games since the All Star break and 10 of those games have been on the road. When you look at their pitching, sure the middle of the pen is shaky but the end is good and a front 3 of Ubaldo/Cook/Francis looks pretty good. Ubaldo is living up to the hype, Cook has been great this year and the ace Francis i retuning (he gave up 1 run in 15 innings in rehab starts in the minors). Even Glendon Rusch is chugging out quality starts. Take this decent starting pitching and combine it with the offense and you get a recipe for success.


Let's look back at last season for a minute. The Rockies had a great run in the 2nd half last year and from this date on last season they went 33-20 (.623 win%) to close out the year. Most of that was due to their offense that averaged 5.96 runs/game while the pitching was good not great giving up 4.37 runs/game. I believe the Rockies offense will be very similar to the one that finished last season and with 3 solid starters I think the pitching will actually be better. Another thing to remember is that at this point last season the Rockies were 12-8 since the All Star break averaging 5.15 runs/game while giving up 3.7 runs/game. So far this season since the All Star break the Rockies are 12-5 averaging 6.12 runs/game while giving up 3.8 runs/game, so they are actually already playing better ball than they were at this point last year.


One other thing to remember is that they finished last season 33-20 (.623 win%). Given the ease of the schedule they have to finish last season let's say they win .625% of their remaining games pretty much like last year. That would have them going 31-18 to finish and have them with a record of 82-80 at the end of the season. Now that may not look sexy but remember that the Dodgers and D-Backs are only on pace to finish 82-80 and 83-79 respectively despite playing tougher schedules (the Dodgers have lots of road games left too) that's very close to what the Rocks might finish with. Given the ease of the Rockies schedule and the way the pitching and hitting could come together, I wouldn't be shocked if the Rockies won more than .625% of their remaining games.


In Summary: Well the reason I wrote that obscene amount above is that I believe that the Colorado Rockies are going to make a playoff push down the stretch. The stars are all aligning: Joke of a schedule, hitters are healthy and raking and they have some good pitchers, also the teams they are chasing are mediocre. They have a long way to go but I don't think it's out of the question, which is what's important pertaining to wagering. I've only looked at a few sites but I'm seeing the Rockies anywhere between 8-1 to 10-1 to win the NL West, and that I believe given the circumstances is VALUE! The whole reason for writing this was because I believe we have a team here that has great value on it and is in a great situation that could make a serious run at winning a weak division. Of course the odds say they don't and they might not even make a run making me look like a total baffoon. Last season the Rocks went all the way to the World Series riding their 2nd half run. This season the odds of them doing that are somewhere are 35-1 to 50-1. I'm not saying they will do that at all but it could happen IF they make the playoffs and at these prices to win the NL West I think I'll take a shot.


Watch out for the Rockies.

9 comments
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bluesplayer says:
08/04/08 03:24PM
nice effort mac..
andarmac99 says:
08/04/08 03:45PM
Aren't you the one who said TOR would win the World Series ????

I certainly took a shot at 30-1 or whatever it was with the potential that the pitching staff had. If they could have gotten to the playoffs with the starters in tact I would have bet them again. But new year, same story, they can't hit and especially with runners in scoring position.

You'd think with the 3rd best ERA in the majors that they would at least be in the hunt........
andarmac99 says:
08/04/08 05:18PM
guess I'm alone on this boat....no more Rockies fever?
jrock88 says:
08/04/08 05:25PM
I was actually talking with a friend this morning and he was saying he still liked Arizona in the west despite Manny, and I said I liked Colorado. 

Jiminez is on fire, Francis has looked great in his rehab starts and Cook has been awesome all year long.  Tulo's beginning to hit, Holliday is a rock, and some of the role players are stepping up.

On the other hand, Atkins, who is typically a 2nd half player is slumping miserably.  His avg has gone from .315 to .293 and he isn't hitting for power.  Also, it would benefit to get Helton back as they have very few left handed bats, as their record against righties indicates. 

They definitely have the pieces, with 3 good arms and a wealth of bats.
BoSox829 says:
08/04/08 05:32PM
I'm not sure if I'm on the boat just yet, but I'm definitely pondering the idea pacing on the dock. Will be at Coors pretty frequently down the stretch so I hope you're right.
IWM8888 says:
08/04/08 05:45PM
The Rockies fully healthy and raking...

Will look in close and wacth out for the Rockies!

Very nice andarmac and goodluck to you!
HOFFA44 says:
08/04/08 09:41PM
They will make a nice run but I don't think that they will win the West. Should make their backers some $$$ the rest of the way.
MaineRoad says:
08/05/08 04:28PM
I placed this bet about 10 days ago at 10-1. I posted it on the basbell forum, but got no replies.
PhillyFan4Life says:
10/14/08 07:16PM
why u hatin on me dude
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