The Vikings Defense.........

I know the postseason is a "new" season and all situational spots are different but I'm just wondering what Vikings backers have to say about this:

If you throw out the garbage game at the end of the year where the Giants quit, did you know Minnesota only played 6 games all season against offenses ranked in the Top 20? That's right, they played 10 of 16 games this year against offenses in the bottom 12 of the league (counted the Giants here because they quit).

Look what their defense did (or didn't do) against those 6 offenses in the Top 20:

Points allowed: 23, 31, 27, 26, 30, and 26 for an average of 27.1 per game.

Yards allowed: 424, 448, 259, 331, 398, and 397 for an average of 376 per game.

Opposing QB completion %: 70, 65, 54, 63, 69, and 64 for a total of 137 passes complete out of 212 or 65%.

Opposing QB Yards Per Attempt: 10.4, 9.0, 6.7, 7.0, 8.9, and 9.1

Opposing Yards Per Carry allowed: 4.8, 4.5, 5.6, 4.7, 4.5 and 3.1

Opposing QB Ratings: 110.6, 109.2, 87.8, 108.5, 127.7, and 123.2

Opposing QB TD/INT Ratio: 14-1


The Vikings went 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in those games with 2 wins coming over Green Bay and the other on a last second missed FG by Baltimore.

Telling trends about playoff teams that tank in Week 17

We've all heard or know how big momentum is in the game of football and how tough it is to get it back after it is lost whether that be through a loss or a break in action (bye). But check this out:

Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990 with the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference owning a first round bye there have been 23 times where a #1 or #2 seed has LOST their final regular season game (more often than not resting starters and tanking) and then had their bye. But unbelievably only 3 of those 23 #1 or #2 seeds that lost their final regular season game went on to win the Super Bowl!!!! 3 out of 23 in 19 years! I think that speaks volumes as to how big of a factor momentum is in this game and just how utterly STUPID it is to rest starters and tank your final regular season game if you have a bye after that, effectively killing any momentum.

The 3 winners?

1999 Rams

1994 49ers

1991 Redskins

It's interesting to note that it has not happened in 10 years and two of the wins came back in an age where power teams ruled and a wild card or lower seed making noise was almost an afterthought.

Look what has happened just since 2002 (when the NFL expanded to 8 division winners and only 4 wild cards got in):

Since 2002 there have been 12  #1 or #2 seeds that have lost their final regu... [More]

Warning to #1 and #2 Seeds Tanking this Week...................Check This Out......

We've all heard or know how big momentum is in the game of football and how tough it is to get it back after it is lost whether that be through a loss or a break in action (bye). But check this out:

Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990 with the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference owning a first round bye there have been 23 times where a #1 or #2 seed has LOST their final regular season game (more often than not resting starters and tanking) and then had their bye. But unbelievably only 3 of those 23 #1 or #2 seeds that lost their final regular season game went on to win the Super Bowl!!!! 3 out of 23 in 19 years! I think that speaks volumes as to how big of a factor momentum is in this game and just how utterly STUPID it is to rest starters and tank your final regular season game if you have a bye after that, effectively killing any momentum.

The 3 winners?

1999 Rams

1994 49ers

1991 Redskins

It's interesting to note that it has not happened in 10 years and two of the wins came back in an age where power teams ruled and a wild card or lo... [More]

NFL Week 1 Plays

Last year posted: 74-53 (58.2%)

Sitting here half drunk and decided to punch in some of the plays I was looking at for Week 1 so I figured I might as well post them too. Plus, I'm a degen and football is cool.


Dallas -3

Seattle -7

Arizona -6.5

Washington/NY Giants UNDER 39


Square looking plays for the most part early but that's why I'm on em early as I think these lines probably won't get any better for me and there's a good possibility they get worse. Other Week 1 plays I'll probably be on where I should get better or equal lines than what is currently available: Titans, Browns, Packers.


Football, I sport I can bet on and make money on and actually watch without wanting to shoot myself unlike, you know, baseball.


GL

Football's great variable................................................The Turnover

One of the interesting things about Football is just how big of an effect Turnovers have on the game, especially at the professional level. We've all seen the stats: "If a team has a +3 turnover margin in a game they win the game 90+% of the time", etc. But just how big of an effect do Turnovers have on a season, how many games is a large deviation from the mean (+ or -) in the turnover department worth?

I say turnovers are a variable because they really can't be controlled. It is true that good defenses force them and good offenses don't give them up but that margin doesn't really count for a whole lot when you consider the majority of turnovers happen to be "right place right time". Think about it, how many interceptions are the result of tipped balls just happening to land in the right hands? And how many times does a rolling fumble happen to roll a defensive players way when it could have easily bounced the other way?

The mean # for turnover margin for a team in a season is 0. Anything other than that is a deviation and IMO anything + or -10 is a significant deviation that I would classify as an anomaly. If a team has for instance a -15 turnover ratio in one season that probability is extremely high that in the following season their turnover margin will be significantly greater as it "regresses to the mean" of 0. Regression to the mean is a key element of statistical analysis that is often overlooked in sports betting but many astute ... [More]