We've all heard or know how big
momentum is in the game of football and how tough it is to get it
back after it is lost whether that be through a loss or a break in
action (bye). But check this out:
Since the NFL playoffs expanded to 12
teams in 1990 with the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference owning a
first round bye there have been 23 times where a #1 or #2 seed has
LOST their final regular season game (more often than not resting
starters and tanking) and then had their bye. But unbelievably only 3
of those 23 #1 or #2 seeds that lost their final regular season game
went on to win the Super Bowl!!!! 3 out of 23 in 19 years! I think
that speaks volumes as to how big of a factor momentum is in this
game and just how utterly STUPID it is to rest starters and tank your
final regular season game if you have a bye after that, effectively
killing any momentum.
The 3 winners?
1999 Rams
1994 49ers
1991 Redskins
It's interesting to note that it has
not happened in 10 years and two of the wins came back in an age
where power teams ruled and a wild card or lower seed making noise
was almost an afterthought.
Look what has happened just since 2002
(when the NFL expanded to 8 division winners and only 4 wild cards
got in):
Since 2002 there have been 12 #1 or #2
seeds that have lost their final regular season game. They are 0 for
12 in Super Bowl wins. Half of them (6) have gone down on their home
field in their first game. 3 more have gone down on their home field
in the conference finals, and of just the 3 teams to make it to the
Super Bowl all 3 have gone down in the big game. Those 12 teams
combined to go an ugly 7-14 ATS and suffered many SU losses as
favorites.
I guess the message is here if the
Colts, Chargers, Saints, or Vikings/Eagles (this year's potential #1
and #2 seeds) decide to tank Week 17 then it is just about the
equivalent to suicide as far as their Super Bowl hopes go. I'm not
saying they won't win the big game if they lose in Week 17 but holy
shit, history certainly says their chances are slim at best!