andarmac99's Blog

NFL Week 1 Plays

By andarmac99 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, September 02, 2009 06:19 AM

31 comments

Last year posted: 74-53 (58.2%)

Sitting here half drunk and decided to punch in some of the plays I was looking at for Week 1 so I figured I might as well post them too. Plus, I'm a degen and football is cool.

Dallas -3

Seattle -7

Arizona -6.5

Washington/NY Giants UNDER 39

Square looking plays for the most part early but that's why I'm on em early as I think these lines probably won't get any better for me and there's a good possibility they get worse. Other Week 1 plays I'll probably be on where I should get better or equal lines than what is currently available: Titans, Browns, Packers.

Football, I sport I can bet on and make money on and actually watch without wanting to shoot myself unlike, you know, baseball.

GL

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andarmac99 says:

09/02/09 12:39PM

Yes but championship caliber teams often don't cover the spread and sometimes lose straight up to inferior teams. It happens almost every week.

Granted, it was a bit of a different situation as it was a MNF game but early last season a championship caliber Giants team came to Cleveland as 9 point favorites in the midst of a stretch on their schedule against garbage teams. Before the game every single thing pointed to a Giants rout. They were CLEARLY the better overall team and they were thumped 35-14 by Cleveland. I believe the Browns were the more motivated and focused team for that game. They came out fired up and the Giants probably overlooked them as they were in a stretch where they thought they probably had a bunch of easy wins.

If the more talented team always won then sports betting and maybe even professional sports would cease to exist. It just doesn't work that way. This game is shaping up similar to that Giants game from last year. Every single stat, trend, whatever says the Vikings are the superior team and should roll. But IMO I think they get caught up in the talk that they are a great team and they should trounce the first 3 cream puffs on their schedule and be 3-0 before the season starts. I think the Browns may be a hungry home dog as well. They were raped on this field in front of the country last year to open the season by a "championship caliber team" and it ruined a season that they were expected to do very well. They know everyone is expecting them to roll over and die here again but I think they will not let it happen two years in a row.

Am I unloading my account on the Browns? No. Thought about going big but I'm going to treat it like any other game. The Vikings could win 45-0 and that would be fine. It means I completely misread the game and I should go back and see what I did wrong, learn from it, and move on to next week's slate.

My 0.02

Gold_Rush says:

09/02/09 12:49PM

My line on Dallas is now -4.5

I still like it Tampa bay is horrid

I also love your Under call on Wash NY

Gold_Rush says:

09/02/09 12:50PM

My book also has GB - 3.5 now

and Sea - 7.5

but I plan on buying half points - always worth it

GL bud

PrimeTimeBoys says:

09/02/09 01:15PM

I love the Steelers over the Titans wk 1, I will have my write up next week. I also think the 49ers win the NFC West, I see Mike Singletary continuing his winning ways by winning outright in Arizona the 1st week.

Mr_Hollywood says:

09/02/09 01:49PM

GL this year, mac

andarmac99 says:

09/02/09 01:58PM

Just like that Cleveland up to +3.5

Keep it coming boys

andarmac99 says:

09/02/09 01:59PM

I look forward to the read.

davy says:

09/02/09 02:21PM

I'm also on the NYG/WSH Under. I think its going to be the same outcome as last years week 1 game.

Gold_Rush says:

09/02/09 03:20PM

I think Wash will score more than 10 without a doubt

The Redskins Defense is just as good as the Giants

so you could say that NY may not even score 10

either way its going under GL

glyde69 says:

09/02/09 04:43PM

Looking good, Mac.

I'm with you 100% with Tennessee. Even though my "season" outlook for them is to take a step back, they are still a nasty team. I agree that their defense is the basically the same even without Haynesworth. I also agree that them losing last year in the playoffs was a hardcore chokejob. I remember watching that game in Atlantic City at a friend's birthday party, and after getting a nanny nanny poo poo from someone who bet the Ravens, my exact half drunken words were, "Motherfucker, if those two teams played each other 10 times in the next 10 weeks, Tennesee would win all 10. If they played next week, and the line was Tenn -10, I would pound Tennessee!" I still feel that way.

Pittsburgh on the other hand was a worthy team to win the Super Bowl, but they weren't perfect. Their offense disappeared for games at a time and it was against teams built like Tennessee that they seemed to struggle against the most. I think Tenn will be able to run the ball if they stick to it, and if Collins can make the necessary throws on 3rd and manageable, they have a good shot to win this outright. As it stands, Tennessee is getting 5(should be 3, imo), and I'm gonna hang on and hope to weasel +6 out of the books. +4.5 is the magic number, so if it dips to 4.5, and even if I believe it will jump back up, I'm gonna lock at 4.5. The risk of going to +4 is far greater than any reward of +5.5 or +6 in my eyes.

Originally I was looking at the Dallas-Tampa game exactly how you were looking at the Minny-Cleveland game. That was the game my gut sort of sniffed out a surprise home win by the seemingly inferior team. I'm not so sure now though. Like I said in that other thread, the guy calling the plays for Tampa is pathetic, and Dallas will eat up that sideways pussy passing attack. I also believe that Dallas has a lot of motivation after the Philly trouncing/Romo backlash/practice facility collapsing/scoreboard shenanigans/etc etc. I think they will come out fired up, and if they get a 14-0 lead, Tampa abandons their only chance of winning.....a steady run game.

I'm not so sure about your Cleveland pick. I don't know. It's not that I'm on the other side, but I just see Minnesota as a mean team who embody everything needed to put a whooping on the Browns. BUT STILL I can't bring myself to pulling the trigger on them. Part of it is the possiblity of the Williams being suspended. Part of it is sort of a backlash of "over-capping" in the preseason. After all the studying and breaking down these squads over and over, you sometimes get an attachment to a team you feel is talented. To me, if Minnesota can put it together(with or without Favre), they are my favorite to win the NFC. I say that with two good teams breathing down their necks in the division, and a nasty NFC East looking them in the eye. At the same time, I see a Cleveland team who looks like dogshit. So on paper, this should be a no brainer play on Minny, but it just isn't. Something in my gut is echoing that maybe Cleveland is a play here(kind of how I felt with Tampa), but my brain and all it's studying and liking for Minnesota is stubborn and don't want to go there; not in Week 1. Your reasoning for the taking them makes sense, but in the end I think I'm gonna pass.

glyde69 says:

09/02/09 04:49PM

I'm a waste at totals, and may play three a year, but your Wash under looks fantastic. I can't see this being anything higher than a 17-13 kind of game.

Something about the Skins I really like this year. I'm hoping that it clicks to 7 soon, so maybe gameday it creeps to 7.5. Then I'm all over the Skins. They are one of my early leans. I'm also leaning heavily towards the Bills not just this week, but to have a sweet season. Even with Dick Jauron as a coach. I hope Brady is reported to be all fine, so the line is double digits. I think the Bills can give them a serious game. Watch out for Lee Evans this year!

glyde69 says:

09/02/09 04:58PM

Oh yeah, I really like Seattle. I missed out on -7(up to -7.5), and I'm such a stubborn prick that I refuse to buy the hook(I'm not big on buying points ever) back.

I'm gonna keep an eye on it. If it goes back down, I'm on it. If it moves up, I'll probably suck up my pride and take them at -8. I don't want to go that high, but you snooze you lose. Good job procuring the -7.

One thing worries me about Seattle and it may be the most important thing to a football team.....The trenches. Their O-line is one gigantic question mark right now, and while they bulked up the D-line, they are a weak spot. It doesn't matter though. They rout St Louis regardless. That team is pathetic.

Gold_Rush says:

09/02/09 05:07PM

I am with you glyde

I like the skins chances this year also. 12 to 1 to win the NFC

it will be interesting to see how Campbell plays having the same coach and offensive system for more than 1 year

He has handled himself better than most players would after all the bullshit the team put him through.

Trooper64 says:

09/02/09 06:37PM

Andarmac99...like your card and trust you will do well....I believe that Minn-Cleve line will get steamed to 4.5 Wait for it! Best of Luck

andarmac99 says:

09/02/09 06:47PM

Awesome stuff again Glyde. Such a nice refreshing read from 95% of the other crap on these forums.

Yeah, like I said Cleveland is just one of the ugly gut feel type plays. Minny is the superior team but I've just got that feeling Minny takes the day off. However if the Vikings come to play it could be a rout.

GL Week 1 buddy

glyde69 says:

09/03/09 12:16AM

Gold Rush, you a fan of the Skins, or at least watching them closely? I like them for a lot of reasons, and I know they have their work cut out for them in the East, but I think they can make noise.

If you answered yes to my above question, I have a few questions for you. Maybe we can get some BS going back and forth.....

How has Philip Daniels looked coming back from his knee injury?

Do either Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas look like they are ready to step up and become the legit threats I think they can be? Has Orakpo been a beast in camp/preseason? How has DeAngelo Hall looked?

Just a few small things I was wondering that I think can impact the team.

glyde69 says:

09/03/09 12:16AM

Same to you, dude.

D-Town says:

09/03/09 07:54AM

Good luck Mac.

JD232 says:

09/03/09 09:12AM

BOL!

andarmac99 says:

09/10/09 03:57PM

I added more on Tennessee at the current prices just because I feel cheated at the shitty line I got. I'll be sniffing around for a ML play as well.

Still waiting for better numbers on Cleveland and I think I've talked myself into going overboard and betting the Panthers. I'll add em if I play em.

GL tonight.

glyde69 says:

09/10/09 04:04PM

Tennessee to the bank!

Strange. I was leaning Carolina the last week, now I'm thinking of jumping ship to Philly.

andarmac99 says:

09/10/09 04:13PM

I had no interest whatsoever in that game until yesterday when I talked it out and my gut jumped up and hit me in the face and said "Carolina!"

GL glyde.

andarmac99 says:

09/13/09 01:19AM

Adding:

Cleveland +4

Carolina +3

Ponied up and paid for the Carolina hook just to be safe

even though I'm money lining both these plays as well but for less.

Here's a few thoughts about the Carolina game I wrote in another thread earlier in the week:

I think Philly is overpriced here. Did

you know that there is going to be only 1 starting offensive lineman

for Philly in this game playing the same spot as Philly's last game

last year? That's got to be quite an adjustment and Philly's offense

may struggle as a result. Big losses for Philly on D as well. Jim

Johnson was MASSIVE. Brian Dawkins huge, Stewart Bradley huge and now

they've lost another starting LB for this game.

The Panthers

pretty much return the same team from last year. While I think they

overachieved last year, they were still a good football team and they

certainly bring an element of continuity that I don't think the

Eagles have at this point.

Good football teams getting points

at home are almost always worth a look for me. I have to question

Brian Westbrook as well. I don't think he's hardly played at all this

training camp/preseason, is he going to be in any kind of football

shape and how will he run behind an unfamiliar offensive line? I

don't know, Philly could be relying on McNabb to score for them in

this game and on the road do you really trust him? Gutsy.

One

other factor is Jake Delhomme. How is this guy going to respond after

single handedly choking away the Panthers season last year? He's had

all offseason to think about it and I think he comes out strong. He's

basically been written off and if I'm him I am PISSED OFF. In fact if

I'm a Carolina Panther I am PISSED OFF that my 12-4 team that was 8-0

at home last year is an underdog in our home opener to a banged up

team who won 9 games last season. FUCK that!

andarmac99 says:

09/13/09 01:24AM

Final Card:

Tennessee +5 (winner)

Dallas -3

Seattle -7

Arizona -6.5

Green Bay -3

Cleveland + 4

Carolina +3

Washington/NY Giants UNDER 39

Getting some strange vibes about the Seahawks. They may be in tougher than I thought but I'm in at a good price so I'll stand pat. Really like the rest of these.

As kickoff draws near I am really liking a lot of the dogs. Not going

to force plays in Week 1 (have a lot already) but a couple more dogs

tomorrow look intriguing.

GL this week.

tito40 says:

09/13/09 01:27AM

Hey andy - good to see you on Carolina, agree with all your thoughts there.

bol this season

Swoop says:

09/13/09 03:12AM

Big Eagles fan here, but I'm on the Panthers as well. No way this team should be laying 3 in Carolina. I'm really hoping some idiot local gives me an even bigger number tomorrow

Also on that Under in NY.

GL pal

RobertoFiory says:

09/13/09 04:06AM

I see some of the Hilton crowd here ....

Best of luck to you andarmac99 !

glyde69 says:

09/13/09 08:20PM

You have me sold on the Pack, my friend. I hit up the Pack, and while I'm gonna root my Bears, I think the money will be cashing on GB.

Nail this fucker and get a lil profit today.

weeble5672 says:

09/13/09 08:34AM

BOL andie

jmello1 says:

09/13/09 04:03AM

Hey andarmac99, i love your Browns play. I am not sure why so many people are on the Vikings on the road here laying points. Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, i don't know? I was originally going to sit out the first week and see how things play out but i am liking the browns and 4, maybe buy a half to 4.5. Good luck with your plays sir!

sporty_chic says:

09/13/09 05:02AM

*Houston

Houston OV

*Ravens

*AZ

Dallas

NFL sunday is finally here! yay!!!

boy, todays college was absolutely retarded... i got crushed

Luckily it just gets me through Saturdays---> until NFL sunday!

GLall...

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