andarmac99's Blog

NFL Week 1

By andarmac99 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, September 02, 2012 12:56 PM

58 comments

Denver +1

Flashback to last January and the Steelers were a banged up and weary squad coming into Denver to play a playoff game in which they ultimately lost. Now with the exception of Big Ben having a healthy left foot this time around let's look at the current state of the Steelers: Due to injuries and 2nd round pick/presumptive starting LT Mike Adams sucking ass the Steelers will enter this game with exactly 1 starter on the offensive line that was in that same position when they started training camp a few weeks ago. What was supposed to be a revamped offensive line perhaps finally fixing a longtime weakness the Steelers instead have more questions on this unit filled with retreads than they did at the end of last season. Starting at RB last January was Isaac Redman who will get the start again here but he's missed two full weeks of practice with a bad hip and now has an ankle injury on top of that. Mike Wallace actually played in that game in January but with an entire new offense to learn it will be a challenge considering he is just now reporting to camp. This offense suddenly doesn't look too great, especially with an offensive line held together by duct tape going up against a good pass rush. Defensively the Steelers also have problems. James Harrison may not even play in this game after preseason knee surgery. And Ryan Clark will most likely miss the game as well with a sickle-cell disease. That means Pittsburgh will start two new starters in the secondary. The Steelers walked into this stadium last January banged up and full of question marks and really not a hell of a lot has changed.

But this bet isn't so much about what Pittsburgh may or may not be able to field. This bet is about Peyton Manning. I'm not pretending to know how good Manning will be this season, whether he still has zip on the ball, or how long he will even last after a few games of taking hits. But I know this guy is one of the most competitive players to ever take the field. This is a guy for the most part that has never really faced many questions in his career. You knew you were getting 12 wins, a Top 3 MVP finish, 40+ TD'S and a division crown. Now suddenly people are wondering just what this guy has left. That seed of doubt has crept into everyone's minds. Not only that but he was outright cut by the team he helped put on the map. I believe we have all the ingredients necessary for a statement game. Everything is lining up perfectly for Manning (and the Broncos who so desperately wanted him) to come out in front of a jacked up crowd on a national TV showcase game and lay down a huge message to everyone who has doubted him over the last 18 months. Maybe Manning will suck this year who knows, but all great players have one last kick and I think Manning will give it everything he's got this year and no more so than right off the bat in Week 1.

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theclaw says:

09/02/12 01:22PM

The 49ers could very well be a better team this season, however that does not mean the will produce a better result.

The things the 49ers excelled at last season are not repeatable.

The 49ers will win fewer games and won't reach the NFC Championship game again.

chopperocker says:

09/02/12 11:26PM

im on DEN -1/+1 for all the same reason. i wont be looking to back them in week 2, but this is the right spot to back Denver. not that this has anything to do with my decision, but PIT is 9-16(36%) ATS on the Road vs Non-Division opponents and 3-6(33.3%) ATS on the Road in 1st three weeks of season.

YNOT_15 says:

09/03/12 12:34AM

This sounds like a "homer" statement. Just going to guess I'm dealing with a 49er fan.

Oh, and by the way, the best D in the league surrendered how many points in the post season last year? I'm sure it was somewhere between 55-60 in two games. That is a great defense? S.F. plays the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks 6 times a year. Don't forget that. As soon as the defensive unit faces an elite offense they look above average vs. elite. If Eli Manning can go into Candlestick and put up the numbers he did last January. Then I'm positive that next sunday, Aaron Rodgers is going to eat them alive on a nice sunny day in his back yard. If Alex Smith, and this "new", offense can put up 35+ points you guys have a chance. If not you lose by double digits.

Don't forget that this is the best team in football that had one bad day last January. If you don't think they are chomping at the bit to take the field and destroy anything in their path, then you sir are out to lunch!

Green Bay 37

San Fran 20

shakey12381 says:

09/03/12 11:36AM

gl this year mac

pavaman58 says:

09/03/12 01:30PM

PITT is going to put a beatdown on the Broncos under one condition, they quit that stupid run every first down and let Ben call the plays and alot of no huddle.

chillinmcm says:

09/03/12 02:00PM

Denver

Not seeing the revenge angle everyone is talking about. Last year in the playoffs Tebow mania beat the Steelers, they will be focused on Manning and not revenging last years loss to Tebow mania. Too many injuries and ? for Pitt. Denver D is gonna blow up Pitts O line and Big Ben will pay the price.

mushroomspore says:

09/03/12 02:39PM

Giving up 20 points twice, to an offense like the Giants with an elite QB is pretty damn good if you ask me.

mushroomspore says:

09/03/12 03:17PM

Their 4 losses last year - by 3, 10, 2, and 3. Their style of play tends to keep games close. Could Rogers light them up ? Sure. I just think it will be a close game regardless, even if he does throw for 350 yards (which he will have to with no running game). Stafford and Manning threw for over 300 on them, (Manning twice) Niners won two of those games and lost once by 3. Brees threw for 461 yards and Niners still won that game. Point made.

165yds says:

09/03/12 08:34PM

Always the best thread in the NFL forum and respect your opinion as much as anyone else here and love the discussion here.

I hate to say it but I see many red flags for Denver backers on this game, what the hell do I know though. GL as always.

REMYREVERE says:

09/03/12 11:02PM

GL Andy

Leaning Dallas/Giants O44.5. Last 6 match ups went over this number. I am thinking this is more of a balanced matchup but I see both teams scoring in the 20's.

tito40 says:

09/03/12 11:29PM

gl this season andy

andarmac99 says:

09/04/12 10:33AM

mushroomspore - You may be right we shall certainly see. But there were so many areas SF excelled in last season that have a high degree of variance from year to year in the NFL. I'm not going to get into them again but they are fighting history very hard this season. Green Bay won't win 15 games this year either but they aren't fighting to stay at the top in as many somewhat fluky categories as San Fran is. Even a slight downtick in their offense and medium uptick in the defense with a 12-4 record is a better Packers team than last season in my eyes. And San Fran certainly does not have a significant matchup in the coaching game in this one.

ayerphorcewon - Even with Kuper out a few weeks this may be the best offensive line Manning has played behind. He was hit 2 or 3 times and not sacked in 42 dropbacks in preseason. I know that's not the same as a blitzing Pittsburgh defense but this has been a good line for a few years.

165yds - I see a couple the same things. Stuff like that used to concern me but I think it depends on how you break down the game as to whether or not they do.

REMYREVERE - Nice grab on that Over it has moved across a couple of key numbers. Good to see you. GL this season.

andarmac99 says:

09/04/12 10:45AM

Another thought on the Packers and Ravens.

Almost every player who has ever said anything about it has said it is not the late December games where you are hurting that are the toughest, it is actually Week 1. That is because players are not in game shape. There is no way to replicate it in practice and playing the odd half of preseason football does not do it either. Plus this year in just about every report I have read says teams are practicing tackling little to not at all under the new rules. When you have a Packers offense that is going to give Rodgers even more control and will run even more no-huddle than they did last year I think that is a situation where they can wear down the San Fran front over the course of the game that will not be in 100% game shape and may be rusty tackling against some very shifty guys on the Pack. I can see those big guys sucking major gas in the second half and if they can't rush the passer that secondary will be exposed.

Same situation with the Ravens. They are going to run the no-huddle at a very high % this season (Flacco recently said the offense is completely no huddle, he's lying but you get the idea) as Flacco ran it in college and is comfortable with it. Cincy's strength is the defensive line and if the Ravens can wear these guys out they will be in good shape. Cincy also does not have much depth at all upfront so rotating quality players to stay fresh will be a battle. Starting DE Carlos Dunlap looks like a question mark to even play after not practicing since August 10th with a knee injury. His backup just starting practicing for the first time since July. And starting MLB Rey Mauluaga was hurt in the first preseason game and missed the rest of preseason. Even if those three guys play are they going to be in anywhere near the shape necessary to stay with a no-huddle offense?

andarmac99 says:

09/05/12 03:44PM

Locked in a couple:

New Orleans -7

For reasons discussed above. Plus, I will look to support these uber elite QB's at home at a TD or less until they stop covering at an absurd rate. More Griffin nonsense from the last few days where teammates have compared him to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Michael Vick. New Orleans does not have a great looking defense on paper I admit that and they have a couple guys banged up but the home opener, rookie QB, and Spagnuolo factors can help overcome that in this game. If a Redskins team with a rookie QB, questionable at best playmakers, and a below average defense can go in there and trade scores with Brees then I will gladly pay the man.

Green Bay +1/Baltimore pk tease

Just made sense based on how I view the two games.

I will be on Arizona as well but will hold out faint hope for a reasonably priced 3 but will take them as long as they are dogs.

GL this week.

BDub2308 says:

09/05/12 04:20PM

Hey andar, how did you end up last year in NFL ?

Louis_IV says:

09/05/12 04:24PM

gl mac

andarmac99 says:

09/05/12 08:04PM

Dallas +4

Been thinking about this game all afternoon. Giants backers seem to think Romo will be running for his life all game. We'll see, he was sacked a ton last few years against the Giants and still put up great numbers. The weakness of this O-line (or moreso lack on continuity) is in the middle. Free was a solid RT two years ago and now he's back in his natural spot and everyone loves Smith at LT. Giants are more of an edge rush team so I think is being overblown. Also, Murray was hurt early in the 1st game last season and missed the second meeting. Having him and Jones catching passes out of the backfield on checkdowns is a big weapon against the pass rush.

Here's what sold me on the play. The Giants can use the disrespect card all they want, they use that all the time. Truth is I don't believe for one second these guys REALLY feel disrespected after winning two Super Bowls in 5 years. The reality the Cowboys lost to this team twice last season and have been slapped around by them for years. Dallas spent the whole offseason revamping their defense and offensive line to beat the Giants. They now have that great mix of veteran players and younger skilled players needed to win. The window is closing on this team and this might be their last crack. If they are ever going to beat the Giants and make a statement this is the game right here. They have done everything they can to try to make that statement. Love the fact Witten is playing. He'll most likely be a non-factor but the fact that he was willing to sign a waiver to play and took a separate flight to NY last night with a lacerated spleen shows me how desperately the Cowboys want this game. There will be no bigger statement made in Week 1 than if the Cowboys finally take the next step and win tonight. The time is now for this bunch. If the Giants lose then so what, this game is nowhere near as important for the Giants as the Cowboys.

GL.

FadeOnly says:

09/05/12 08:08PM

larryhughes says:

09/05/12 08:10PM

Andy, GL this season

mushroomspore says:

09/05/12 09:51PM

GL Mac. Youre right about them dudes being out of shape early on. To be clear i was trying to make a point to our friend YNOT that just cuz the niners get lit up doesnt automatically mean a cover, as evidence by their record last year when giving up over 300 yds passing.

I think the Saints rally around their off season troubles - a "circle the wagons" game or whatever they call it, and come out to destroy week 1.

andarmac99 says:

09/05/12 11:50PM

Beautiful game by the Cowboys tonight. I have this group Over 8.5 wins as well and it was nice to see everything coming together. They have that great balance of experience and high-end youthful talent. They have the potential to be very good in both areas on both sides of the ball if everything continues to come together. They went in there tonight and shit on the Giants. Yes, they are in a tough division and will surely have 2-3 typical WTF Cowboy games but this is one of the best 3-4 teams in the league IMO and will be a factor deep into January.

nutinbutgas says:

09/06/12 02:18PM

Polar_Bear says:

09/06/12 05:24PM

Nice reading material. Thanks for sharing your well thought out opinions as always, and goodluck in the upcoming season.

Depersio says:

09/06/12 06:20PM

Nice pick, capped perfectly.

After a huge win, what do you think of Dallas in week 2 playing in Seattle? Possible letdown?

nepatriots_12 says:

09/06/12 07:06PM

Nice call on the Boys buddy...

strong leans to Saints -7/Chi -9.5/Mia-Hou Under 43....
slight leans to Kc ML/Tb ML/Ari ML...I think 2 of those 3 home doggies hit.

also locked in a Chi -2.5/Saints PK tease...like both to cover but see value in the 2 team tease also.

nepatriots_12 says:

09/06/12 07:09PM

Saints

Favorite play this week....rookie QB making his first start against a pissed off Saints team in that noisy dome...recipe for disaster IMO

REMYREVERE says:

09/08/12 09:37AM

0-1 ( -1.1 units)

Damn Giants get tackled at the 1 on an interception and fail to punch it in on the GL, settling for a TD and falling 4 points from the over. Going to be that kind of year.

PATRIOTS -6 (1 UNITS)

Hate to say it as a Jets fan but the Patriots might be as good on offense this season as they were in 2007. They are going to be very hard to contain this season and nearly impossible to shut down. NE run defense was suprising strong last season and I just can't see Jake Locker beat them through the air without Britt. I think after the dust clears NE will be the talk of the NFL.

SAINTS -8 (1 UNITS)

I agree with almost everything that was posted and now that the suspensions are reversed I think the Saints are even more motivated to go out there and make some noise.

PANTHERS -3 (1 UNITS)

Bucs are banged up and DeWilliams and Tolbert should more than compensate for the loss of Stewart. Lot of talk about Freeman emerging at QB but Cam is the real deal. Should be a close one (and part of me just wants to root on Cam) but I think the Panthers are the better team here

EAGLES -10.5 (1 UNITS)

Something about that .5 scares the shit out of me but I think this is going to be the year the Eagles breakout and play like the team we thought they would be last year. Rookie QB against that pash rush, Rookie RB who has been banged up all preseason. They might struggle to get 10 points. While CLE defense is solid Vick and Shady should put points on the board.

I see the Jets are a favorite on this thread. As a general rule I never bet on the Jets since I am a Jet fan and when they lose I feel like I lost twice. However I am w/Andy. The offense will struggle and it is the huge hole at RT that is the cause. Sanchez is not an effective passer under pressure (not many QB are to be fair) and Tebow is not Michael Vick. If they can establish the run and stay on the field for chunks of time and rest their defense which looks very very good, then I think they should win this game by a TD at most. If we get a lot of 3 and outs and turnovers the D will get shreaded. Key in this one is the OLine and Greene.

GL Everyone

glyde69 says:

09/08/12 02:38PM

Got a busy night ahead of me, so this might be my only time to post.

Saints -8. Snoozed on line, but I'm confident they cover anyway. With or without some key defensive members(Hawthrone, Lofton, Greer). Nothing really to say that hasn't been already said.

Jets -3/-2.5. I locked Jets originally when it hit 3, but it was one of those "circle" games and 100 was the limit. Added another 50 at -2.5 to complete the unit(and make me feel warm inside that I didn't get totally pawned on that line). Defense shuts down the Bills and grinds out an easy win.

Arizona +3. I know Seattle getting a lot of hype(deservedly so as they did some good things last year, built it into this preseason, and also possibly stumbled onto a good QB), but rookie QB making his first start on the road LAYING points?? Not my bag. Besides that, I can make an argument Arizona is the all around better team. Problems at QB hurt that argument, but I like their DL(all fat mean muhfuckas), their LB are all aggressive fast guys(I don't think Wilson has ever seen the speed these guys are gonna bring to the table), and the secondary is a decent group of veterans. Arizona has a special teams edge too(stop me if I'm wrong; left my notes at work). I'll take the home dog with who I believe is the better team.

Cincinnati +7. I don't think the Bungals are getting the respect they deserve after last year. With a rookie QB, they came pretty close to moving deep into the playoffs. They return a similar squad. They have the CB's to disrupt Flacco and his no huddle horseshit, they have a mean DL, a few weapons for Dalton to work with(Dalton another guy who gets no respect; all he did in TCU and Cincy was WIN). I'll take the TD and hope this doesn't turn into a fucking shootout.

Denver -2. Read Andy's initial post. That says it all. Pitt due for a down year, Big Ben talking about missing the game if his wife has baby, defense a year older, key injuries, blah blah blah.

All offseason, I had GB circled. I was planning on letting it drop down to the -4 area once the SF hype started, and then pounding them.......can't seem to pull the trigger though.

Lots of big dogs this week and I have a feeling a bunch of them cover. Looking at them though, it's tough to pick with all the baby QB's out there. People see Brady, Ben, Matt Ryan, Newton and think that all young QB magically are players right off the bat. That's not the case though. QB's need time to mature and let the game come to them, so putting my money on ANY of them is bothersome. First look was the HOME team, but Cleveland just looks like a festering infected wound.

Miami +13 is intriuhing. I can see this being a 23-13 kind of game. Rams +9 or so is also interesting as Bradford has shown some potential before(unlike the rooks getting trotted out everywhere else). Bradford has an okay running game to work with, Gibson and Amendola are serviceable, and coach Fisher brings some stability behind the scenes. Lions can score(in bunches), but no one ever said their defense was anything special. Bradford puts up 24, and that might be enough for the cover.

Tennessee I liked initally, but I'm staying away. Too much of a "wise guy" pick for me. It's like that piece of shit horse that takes insane money in the Kentucky Derby each year that always shits the bed. Bunch of braindead fools that THINK they are sharp because they are going against the public, and it rarely works out. That what the Titans feel like to me. Some wise guy pick. I ain't fucking with Tom Brady.

Looking at JAX +3.5/4 as well. Jax very sneakily had a good defense last year. Considering how putrid the offense was, their overall numbers were more than impressive. The superior dfefense in a game like this might set the tone and cruise.

Anyway GL to all. Jets, Saints, Denver, Zona, and Cincy are all locked and loaded. Might add one of those dogs tomorrwo(most likely Jax or St Lou), but card is mostly intact. Andy great thread as always.

44-dimes says:

09/08/12 03:46PM

Good start Mac-----------

I'm on the Broncos this week and I'm glad to see it's part of your ticket

DiscoD69 says:

09/08/12 05:23PM

mac

Like the Broncos but I'll probably be on the Skins.

BOL on your plays

AnthonyStarks says:

09/08/12 06:41PM

If I was peyton manning, after I beat Pitt tomorrow Id tell Mike Tomlin to go get his fucking shine box!

captainronrico says:

09/08/12 07:21PM

Thanks for the write up. Happens to be my best play for this week. My thinking there is:

#1: Denver's defense is perhaps one of the best in the league

#2: ditto your thoughts on Pitt's offensive woes

#3: Pitt's D is long in the tooth.

Playing 5 units on Denver @ a pick 'em

Playing un/44 5 units

BOL & thanks again

shivaseven says:

09/08/12 08:01PM

Thanks for the extensive right ups. It's greatly appreciated. I've got 2.2 units on a three team teaser.

Houston -2.5
Philadelphia +.5
N.O. +2.5

You guys pretty well covered most of the salient points on these games.

Like you guys I'm looking at the JETS as the line has been driven down to 2.5 from 6.0. Just off memory I remember reading that the JETS are 7-1 SUP against the BILLS and have won all those games by more than 3 points. LY the Bills were 9.5 dogs in NY but this year are going off around 2.5. Really, has this match up swung by a touchdown so quickly. I think Mario Williams will make everyone on the BUF defense better but it's early and the BILLS are still implementing a new defensive system. This should be a very interesting game.

If you want to talk about teams regressing, how about the LIONS. It seems as an organization they lack maturity and might have a tough time duplicating their success of last year. If I was going to play one of those DOGS tomorrow I'd look at the RAMS. The Lions are banged up in the secondary, which isn't their strength, and you should check the status of Delmas and Houston. Just the fact they brought in Drayton Florence this week and were thinking about starting him should tell you about their DB depth.

Anyways, I gotta run. Good luck on the season and once again thanks a lot for taking the time to produce the detailed right ups.

andarmac99 says:

09/09/12 12:28AM

Hey buddy nice to see you back hope you had a good summer.

GL this season.

andarmac99 says:

09/09/12 12:31AM

Enjoyed the thoughts on the game Remy but my goodness the lines! Can't you do any better than those?

GL regardless buddy.

andarmac99 says:

09/09/12 12:55AM

Great start to the year with the thoughts bro.

Jets or nothing just based on how the line is going and I actually envision the game playing out just like you say maybe even with Greene finally waking up but I just can't bring myself to lay points with that team in any capacity at the moment.

With you on Zona as well for the same reasons. Rookie QB laying points is an autofade for me. Plus, like we've already discussed Arizona's defense is way under the radar and may be just as good as Seattle and that to me is the biggest key to the game. Skelton + shit o-line is a concern but so is the fact Seattle has no receivers. I mean have you seen this unit? Yikes. Nice grab on the 3, I'm still holding out hope.

Haha we'll have to agree to disagree on the Bengals. Put me in the Dalton non-believer camp. Smart guy who can manage a game but I don't think he's much more than that. I've done a complete 180 on the Ravens. I thought they would be way down this season but I really like what they are doing offensively and call me crazy but Ron Jaworski is right Joe Flacco has the strongest arm in the NFL. I watched the Ravens in preseason and he can flat out rifle the pigskin. The defense has some losses and age up front but I saw something Bill Polian said the other day about this team and that is when you have cover corners you trust you can scheme entirely differently, disguise coverages, and design complex blitz packages. The Jets do it all the time and the Ravens have 3 guys who are developing really well at CB.

Man Miami is a hold your nose bet. No way can I bet a 3-13 team in Week 1, no problem betting shit after a few weeks but not so early. I agree it should be low scoring which favors the Fish if they can manage anything offensively.

Really been looking hard at New England the last few days. There is value just based on the line drop. I agree completely with your take as well. The go-out-on-a-limb/hero guys/trap line believers/guys scared of the mythical creature named Vegas always try to predict the year New England falls off but they always come out and throttle teams. Last year a scrappy Miami team getting points at home on MNF with a good defense was their pick but 600+ yards and 38 points later it was a laugher. Two seasons ago in the opener the Pats were only -4 or -5 at home to a Bengals team that just made the playoffs and that game was over after the 1st quarter as NE put up 38 again. This year their argument is the Super Bowl hangover (a stat that has been beat to death so much that it will most surely come to an end) and the Pats O-line. Funny that Brady played one half of football in the preseason with an o-line with guys off the street against Tampa and everyone makes a big deal out of it. Mankins and Vollmer are healthy and back and this group should be fine. Tennessee's defensive front is dogshit. They were horrible rushing the passer last season and won't be much better this year. Brady has looked ordinary against good front 7's and when facing pressure lately but this Titans group has neither. There is offensive talent in Nashville at the skill positions but I saw Jake Locker in preseason and I saw him at Washington and he still sucks. Think NE rolls here. I'll see where this number is in the morning.

GL buddy.

andarmac99 says:

09/09/12 01:11AM

I believe the Lions are playing without a secondary tomorrow. I've never heard of any of the 4 starters and I believe at least one of them is white. If the front 4 has an off game bad secondaries get exposed (see Giants, New York). On a related note how the piss does this game stay Under?

pjrez says:

09/09/12 11:41AM

andarmac99 says:

09/09/12 12:13PM

New England -4.5

Arizona +3 (-120)

For reasons already discussed.

GL this week fellas.

mtbaker says:

09/09/12 01:04PM

GL buddy

I haven't locked in a bet in over 3 months but I'm dipping my toes back in the water with some very very small plays

Bears -9.5 (Motivated defense, they remember what Tebow did to them another rookie qb last year, bitter end to last year with 4 losses, Indy has a bad line, and bears got lambeau on deck so they know they gotta wrap this game up)

Jags ML (great run D, great pass D, I'm expecting their pass rush to improve, Mularkey is not putting pressure on the team and everyone on their will play loose and with a fire, MJD has a better game than Peterson who's banged up and taking away from Gerhart's carries)

Chiefs +2.5 (Motivated team after last year's home opener blowout, injuries ruined their year last year, sure they are missing flowers but routt brings toughness and Berry's a stud, Johnson's activated they man up and bring it)

Browns +10 (Already played Eagles in preseason at home, it took them a half to settle down and get over the jitters of playing a talented team like this, Richardson will do well against the Eagles run D even though Ryan is in, and the Browns have good O-line to slow down the Eagles rush, and Haden and the two-ex Eagles in Brown and Sheppard should do fine, Vick's fragile)

Bears-Bills 7pt Teaser

andarmac99 says:

09/10/12 03:11PM

4-2 week. Few thoughts on the games I watched which may not mean much considering it was week 1.

WSH/NO - I was way off here. The coaching mismatch was evident from the opening snap. Shanahan had a genius gameplan for RG3 with short passes/screens early to settle the nerves, run plays, and called runs out of the option type schemes. The Saints were lost in every facet. It looked like this team hadn't been coached in months. B2B false starts, offense out of sync, missed assignments, guys jogging off the field, etc, etc. The hip word I've seen about today is Overreaction Monday. Meaning everyone now doesn't want to overreact to Week 1 which obviously means they are dismissing too much. Week 1 is very telling. This Saints team is in big trouble. Their defense is legitimate dogshit. I thought they would fall off to 8-8 after a riding some early momentum. Glad I have Falcons and Bucs tickets to win this division because this team will win as few games as possible with Brees as their QB. Obviously Griffin was A+.

NE/TEN - If the Pats had this team last year they would have demolished the Giants in the Super Bowl. Very physical team now. They look to be committed more to the run this season and Ridley + Vereen when he returns is a good combo. The front 7 is very good, best they've had in a while. The secondary is still not good though. Titans receivers were open a fair amount. As for the Titans they have a surprising amount of speed and skill on offense. If Locker stays upright this team is going to score this season. Unfortunately like I suspected the defense and front 7 in particular is just god awful.

SF/GB - Had a very sinking feeling just before this game kicked off that it would end the same as DAL/NYG. Big statement game for SF and they played angry. This team is so fundamentally sound that they are an auto bet as dogs and will be tough to knock off. Still not sold on Alex Smith on a deep playoff run but this team is top notch.

SEA/ARZ - Wow was this a bad game. The scoreboard and final statline won't show it but Russell Wilson has the "it factor". This kid is going to win in the NFL. He was a typical rookie in Game 1 though he held the ball too long early and then rushed throws later anticipating the rush. He'll learn though. Too bad his receivers really suck. Can't think of much to say about Arizona. They do have a good defense but the offense is so bad that is almost negates all their defensive talent. Worst offensive line in the league by a country mile. Big lookahead game for the Patriots next week but I have no clue how Arizona stays within 20.

PIT/DEN - Manning was manning really. Some concerns on defense but they really weren't that terrible. A lot of them getting there but Ben sneaking out and making Ben plays on 3rd downs to extend drives. Not too much to take away from this game for Pittsburgh as it was more of a spot game. If Manning stays healthy Denver will win the division though.

Baker - No bets in 3 months? Jesus man what have you been doing.

Glyde/Jets backers - Good call there that game was too easy. Everything feel perfectly into place for a Jets beatdown.

raems says:

09/10/12 03:33PM

Wilson is the real deal, was extremely impressed by him.

glyde69 says:

09/10/12 03:51PM

Nice week, Andy.

I'm gonna start digging into the NFL Short Cuts, and pop into your week 2 thread with some thoughts.

I'm starting to sour Cincy a bit. Not sure if I'm gonna juice the bet out(don't need any backfiring shenanigans this early in the season) though.

andarmac99 says:

09/10/12 04:02PM

It is truly mindboggling how many times I have heard the term Overreaction Monday or something similar already today in just about every form of media.

Rambler882 says:

09/10/12 04:09PM

Great analysis for this week, really enjoyed reading it.

andarmac99 says:

09/10/12 04:13PM

raems - Agree. Though if anyone who didn't see the game sees the statline they may think that thought is crazy. Kid just has the it factor. Haven't seen you in the forums much lately, don't be a stranger.

Glyde - Not sure how much I'll be around this week, out of town from tomorrow til late week. Not loving the early card. Have the Rams +3 already, not so much (though it is a part) because of the overreaction but more so just how I see the Skins mindset. Getting hyped all offseason to go in there and show what you can do against a power team like the Saints then making that statement is one thing. Having to go home to a great feel-good environment and THEN having to go back out on the road to play a 2-14 team is just a tough, tough spot IMO. Rams are much better than last year, that defense will be tough at home. The Redskins would have been much better served to play at home this week. They would have killed the Rams there. Jags, Steelers, and Packers only ones that stuck out early. Haven't looked much been looking at college today.

mtbaker says:

09/10/12 11:50PM

I watched a lot of that Rams-Lions game and they out hit Detroit in a tough environment. They will be very encouraged competing and almost winning against a mean playoff team after being the laughing stock of the league.

Pretty certain I'm gonna be on them hopefully I don't talk myself out of the play like I did with the Jets this week. Being a Niners fan that's obviously the only game I watched in the afternoon. I was very very impressed. I noticed 2 things- Rodgers really started to heat up and finally look comfortable in the 4th Q and the Niners are just polished at all positions. I'm interested in laying the chalk with both GB and SF. I had the Bears at -9.5, but they were not terrific on D and with a short week and less time to prepare for a great offense and angry team in GB that won't want to lose 3 in a row they will struggle.

mtbaker says:

09/10/12 11:53PM

Ya Kool-Aid we'd like to hear your thoughts. Good to see you bud!

andarmac99 says:

09/11/12 01:15AM

Ugh. Rams Center placed on IR with a broken foot.

Baker - SF just came out and smacked the Packers square in the mouth. Very tough, fundamentally sound team. I think it's either SF or nothing for the next few weeks. Pack line up to 6 at a stinky -110. Not a huge loss from 5 to 6 though I have a sample of 4,000 NFL games and games land on 6 the 3rd most of any number. I don't like the spot for the Bears on the road on short prep time against a team that was pushed around on their own field last game. Bears only get one practice before this one as well. On the other hand this is the biggest game of the season for the Bears until possibly Week 15 again against the Pack.

Pretty sure I'll be on the Steelers at anything under a TD. Just remembered PIT is in a spot that has historically been very strong for them. I'll have to dig up the exact numbers later I have them somewhere. Have a feeling the Jets are going to struggle scoring big time.

mtbaker says:

09/12/12 02:59AM

Haven't looked into the Pitt game yet and don't have a great feel for it but I'm intrigued to hear your thoughts if you get a chance to post.

As for the Bears game the more I think about it the more I feel as though the Bears will do very well here, contrary to my initial beliefs.

The short rest IMO may hurt GB more than Chicago. The Pack have a very similar team as they did last season and unfortunately for them have some banged up players (Jennings, Bishop etc). The Bears know this Packers team well having lost to them the past 4 matchups and am sure have been prepping for this big match like you stated in your last post.

The Packers are reeling right now and in b2b big home games got knocked around by arrogant and talented teams in the Giants and Niners. Usually I'd look to back an angry, talented team, but I think the Packers have some doubt in themselves and the last thing they'd probably want to face is another talented, cocky team in the Bears on a short 3 day week. They won't have the luxuries of calming themselves down and fixing those secondary mistakes and O-Line problems compared to a full week of practice and film. The Packers also know that this is a reloaded Bears team, not the lame duck Bears they have beaten up on the past couple of seasons. Cutler's interview set the tone that it's a new year and they are coming in for the kill against the wounded Cheeseheads.

Green Bay has not seen much of the Bears new offense. Usually a short week would hurt a new offense on the road, but Cutler and Marshall know each other very well and Michael Bush fit in well as the complementary back. I think the Bears will have some plays up their sleeves that the Packers may not be ready for.

I'm just shooting some thoughts that just came to my mind. Tough to fade Rodgers in Lambeau off a home fav loss but I think it could very well happen.

Stevedore says:

09/12/12 04:28AM

Pretty good analysis from you on GB, I know them inside and out. Jennings is banged up, a groin and may not play; Bishop as we know is out for the year. One lineup change which should help GB defense will be a switch at safety when GB goes to their nickel package. They played a lot of base against SF with Woodson and Burnett playing safety and MD Jennings replacing Woodson when they switched to nickel moving Woodson to the slot. Jennings blew the coverage on the Moss TD and was replaced later by McMillian who's a hitter and good at the L.O.S. They actually played better defensively in the 2nd half and he played a part in that, but SF was much better up front on both sides of the ball that day. As an aside, the officiating was atrocious in this game with SF getting every call in the first half helping their T.O.P. and then the blown block in the back that wasn't called on the Cobb runback.

Just Pathetic all the way around....

This seems like a good spot for GB on the short week, but my fears of a slow start by them haven't wained. Their training camp was a mess, racked with multiple injuries starting in the 2nd week. At one point 20 guys were out for multiple days cutting practices shorter then normal. The preseason was sloppy and it's spilled over into the regular season. Will they hit their groove against the Bears? Maybe, they'll keep on seeing similar schemes of 4 man fronts, backers playing 7-10 yards off the ball and deep safeties daring GB to run the ball. The Bears corners aren't as talented as San Fran's and Tillman is hurting for the Bears, Rodgers should be able to find more lanes against Chicago. Still, can't trust em' until I see better and can't fault anyone for liking the Bears here, my .02.

Rollbama1237 says:

09/12/12 04:45AM

This is continually the best thread in the NFL forum. Don't have to wade through any petty bullshit to get solid info and great angles. Thanks Mac

I was on the Saints with you, as I also thought RG3 was being way oversold, especially given how he struggled so badly on the road in college. He was absolutely horrible @ TAMU, @ OKST, @ TCU in '10...hell he was even mediocre for 3.5 quarters against Kansas. However the Saints were quite clearly in disarray from the months of speculation about bounties and dismissed coaches. Thankfully I had the Ravens and the Jets as well, but N.O. being a no-show got me a little perturbed to start the year.

Being a lifelong Dallas resident, I have got to say, if I'm getting the Seahawks at 3.5 I'm taking it and running with it. It would be just like the Cowboys to score their biggest regular season win in years and then piss it down the drain by losing to Seattle. Plus, Seattle has the corners to get physical with Austin and Dez, and the Seahawks were excellent at limiting big plays in the run game last year. DeMarco Murray made most of those big plays against the Giants by himself and I was unimpressed with the new guards Livings and Bernadeau in terms of creating holes in the run game. Now I'm talking myself into the Under 41.5 a bit, haha.

BOL this week; always look forward to your threads

Yanasaur says:

09/12/12 09:43PM

@ and99 - you said you have a sample of over 4000 games and 6 is the third most landed on number. I know that 3 is the most common, but I was curious what is the 2nd? Is it 7? I would guess 4 is the fourth, and 10 the fifth? I'd be curious to see the top 5 most landed on or top 10 even better if you wouldn't mind posting it.

andarmac99 says:

09/16/12 01:35AM

Haven't had much time to drop any thoughts this week, no sense in starting new thread. Rest of the card:

Pittsburgh -5

Yeah the D is old and banged up but they were more banged up last year and still held opponents to 10 points a game at home. Year before that it was 13.8. Only 3 teams have scored more than 17 in this building over that span. Jets offense to me is much more similar to what we saw in preseason than last week where everything fell into place. To me Revis + Keller (both already ruled OUT) are far more important losses than Harrison + Polamalu would be (both game time calls). Revis runs that defense and without him PIT can spread the field and find holes. Sanchez loses his safety valve and if PIT stops the run where does he go? If the Jets score more than 14 here against the best D-Coordinator in the game off a bad game then I'll tip my cap and move on. PIT will find points with plenty of speed against a spaced out D and quite honestly a lot of slow players in the back 7.

NY Giants -7

No idea why this line dropped to 7 and I couldn't care less. Last week Tampa closed +3 at home to Carolina implying if that game were played in Carolina the Panthers would be about -8.5ish. Are we really saying the Panthers are better on a neutral field than the Giants? Nonsense. These guys are the Super Bowl champs with one of the best D-lines in the game. That unit was terrible against the Cowboys and IMO will show up large this week and eat up a Tampa offense that really was not impressive at all against a bad Panthers D last week. This will be the real test for the new Bucs defense against a top notch QB and receivers that will be plenty focused this week. Think we have all the ingredients here for a "reality check" beating.

Still have Rams +3 and Jags +7.5. Bet the Rams early and got a bad line and have lost a strong feel for the bet. Bad combo. Just going to have to ride it out at this point and hope the initial read is correct.

GL this week fellas.

Yanasaur - Top 10 is 3, 7, 6, 10, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, and 11 in that order. Ranging from 15% at 3 to just under 4% on 17 and 11. Lot of people dismiss the 1 and 2 as dead numbers but about 1 in 12 games lands on 1 or 2.

shivaseven says:

09/16/12 02:56AM

Here is an interesting STAT that has implications in two games this week:

Teams as DIVISIONAL DOGS in HOME OPENERS are 10-2-1 since 2010. Also, note that they won all 10 games they covered as dogs.

CAR +3 vs NOR
JAX +7' vs HOU

avenue says:

09/16/12 05:58PM

good thread, appreciate your work

mtbaker says:

09/16/12 08:13PM

Rams buddy!

andarmac99 says:

09/17/12 07:38PM

Add:

Denver +3

We can talk about the offenses and no huddle all we want but this game IMO will come down to defense. I'm higher on this Broncos unit than most. Even though Champ Bailey is not the Champ Bailey of 5 years ago the Broncos still have 2 above average starting corners. They also have 2 (possibly 3 if you believe the praises of Derek Wolfe they are singing) above average pass rushers on the edge. Those are the pieces needed to formulate a decent pass defense. The Broncos D is weak up the middle. They will struggle against power teams that throat them up the middle (like their opponent next week). The Falcons best strategy here would be to pound Turner/Rodgers until Denver can stop em. But now with this new no-huddle and all these passing weapons I just think there will be a tendency to stick to the air. Like the Ravens yesterday letting Flacco air it out 40+ times while Rice gets 16 carries in a game they trail for all of 5 minutes. Not saying the Falcons pull a Cam Cameron but this staff has done some mind-boggling things in the past. This Broncos D allowed 4 yards a play last week with 5 sacks and would have had 10 if the opposing QB wasn't Big Ben escaping every play on 3rd down and making something out of nothing. TOP and the overall yards were close but Denver outgained PIT 6.1 to 4.0 YPP last week.

The Falcons can change coordinators and change the offense completely all they want that was never their problem. They've won 10+ games every year playing the style they had. The fact is they've always been soft as shit on defense and this year IMO nothing has changed. So much focus on the offense and they've got the same crappy defense. The defensive line is weak and they just lost their best corner for the year so they will be shuffling pieces. The Kansas City Chiefs punted a grand total of one time last week. If the Broncos turn it over 3 times like KC then I'll have to deal with it. Should also note from last week is that KC was missing half their starting secondary and the others guys were either playing their 1st game in a full year after knee reconstruction (Berry) or first game as a Chief (Routt). KC's only NFL caliber pass rusher also didn't even play. The Falcons better have put up some points last week.

Legit questions have been raised as to whether this is a statement game for the Falcons. Statement games usually occur when the better team is being disrespected/under-appreciated. I don't think Atlanta is the better team. Also this is Manning's first road game in about 20 months, this is the biggest concern for me but not enough to get off the bet.

GL.

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