arizonaboy's Blog

THE 1 AND ONLY THING THAT GOT ME NERVOUS 4 TONITE IS,,,,

By arizonaboy | View all Posts
Posted Monday, April 05, 2010 10:26 AM   3 comments

Ok, i've been browsing covers and a number of other sites and i did some simple math and came up with a rough estimate that every 7 outta 10 people are playing duke tonite. I'm not one to get too much into the public bets and wise bets and the percentages involved with them but does anyone else feel a bit underconfident with their duke wager knowing that me, myself and I are on the dookies. I like to predict scores through a few calculations of averages and i got this game at 74 - 59 unless butlers' bench or 1 or 2 starters other than gordo heyward and s. mack score in double digits. Besides butlers 2 main stars and with howard suspect even if he does play, how can they keep up with a team that has 5 scores on the floor at all times.

So,, I just wanna hear some other expert takes on this as far as your confidnce on the duke play. Is it too much of a public bet? I know duke is shown at 46 percent on covers but by doing some other forum browsing and looking at just about 200 posts on this game it appears that about 70% + or - 2% are on duke with the spread. So whats everyone think? BTW, if your just posting to bash or arent gonna contribute info that is pertinent PLEASE dont waste time posting here. Good luck on your final day of mens' ncaa hoops,,,, till next year folks!

3 comments
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depeche2 says:
04/05/10 11:30AM
Public schmublic.  What do you think is the result which has a 50% chance or landing on either side.  If it's more than 7 then bet Duke...if it's less than 7 than bet Butler.  Personally I think the midpoint here is 5, so I'm betting Butler.  I got 48% Duke by less than 5 or loss; 48% Duke by more than 5; 4% Duke by 5.  I think Butler +7.5 is about 56-57% winner.  Holding out and hoping for an 8 which I would pound.
jennado says:
04/05/10 11:36AM

I think your scores are too high for this game.  Duke will not be able to score in transition, and if the game is tight, less than 10 points in the last 5 minutes, Duke will run 1/2 court offense, and eat clock.

 

I see this in the 65 - 55 range, and it makes me play the UNDER.  I dont think Duke gets to 70pts tonight.

paris says:
04/05/10 01:23PM
I doubt Duke will shoot the lights out again, so I like the under.  I agree with your assessment of the posters.  I think I have seen 3-1 Duke bets the last 2 days.  As we know though, the public wins games too
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User: arizonaboy
Joined: August 2008
Location: Arizona
Team: Oregon Ducks
Occupation: Management

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