wouldnt football be more fun if....

Instead of immediately enforcing a personal foul a team could save them up like timeouts to be used whenever they want.

Driving for a game winning field goal...nope your nose tackle stomped on a dudes head 2 qtrs ago.

3rd and 26....the other teams diva wide receiver proposed a to a cheerleader in the endzone.

This should happen.

Yeah nothing to do with gambling.

gl all

The Kennel

The brokerman's favorite dogs will be kept here. Fading has been a good tactic as I have had a streak as bad as 4-21 recently. I try to be systematic about my picks, that way I learn something even when the bookie is conjuring up a nice dark alley to render my legs useless.

I bet with big odds so 40% wins will put me up by a good margin at the end of the year.

On to my sorry picks....all moneyline
Central Michigan 4.50
Auburn  4.30
texas tech 3.95
iowa  2.60

total risk 12.65 units

possible payout 48 units(each bet calibrated for 12 units if won)

1 win puts me near breakeven. Anything after that is gravy.

starting bankroll 20 units

bama vs. gators...just look at the rosters

These two teams are who we think they are

Bama is better at the 4 positions I consider key in big games(qb, LT,RB, TE)

Thats a big advantage and what I need to see out of a road favorite.

After that I simply ask myself which group of guys I would take in a street fight.

Alabama all the way.

60 to 1 parl....errrr lottery ticket#2

Miserable fail yesterday with 3 ml dogs who failed to even cover.

Today's money down the drain

on Carolina x Tennessee x chicago

this will lose and not even be close

but should this parlay ever ever ever ever hit I reserve the right to be insufferable in this thread.

auburn/tennessee/kansas parl.....errrr lottery ticket

Just need a place to brag should this highly unlikely parlay come through for me

60 to 1 odds

save your caps lock condemnations

I know its going to lose

however i reserve the right to be insufferable should it hit

You guys realize that tonights outcome was the equivalent of a touchback right?

Series doesn't start to someone loses at home. I didn't bet on the Heat so I'm more worried about OKC figuring out how to beat Dallas and get to the finals. But lets be serious here guys. About 5 things happened tonight that are not happening again in this series.

Is Noah really going to average 8 off. rebs a game? If so lets put him in the Hall right now.

Are the Bulls going to shoot 50% from 3? Noone does that

Are the Bulls really going to beat Miami to every lose ball throughout the series? Lets not forget who the best 2 athletes in the Nba are.

Is Bosh going to avg 30?

Are Lebron and Dwade going to avg a combined 33?

This game told us nothing about Chicago.

The Heat played awful. Lets not take anything away from Chicago but at the same time lets not all start blowing each other yet either. That was 10 guys dialed in and that was a thing of beauty. But it was pretty much just the opening kickoff being kicked out of the stadium. Impressive but not very meaningful in the grand scheme.

Manifesto outline

*I will use Vegas, books, linesmakers interchangeably. There are referring to whomever is charging juice.

*Vegas is the best predictor we have.

*Plenty of  computer geniuses have free for the  public systems available however none of them have a lower margin of error than Vegas.

*If something seems too good to be true 50 percent of the time it is.

*Until you can create a method to make lines that have an overall lower margin of error than the books you will not be able to beat them.


This is more information that any author gives you and they charge you to boot. I'm giving it for free and opening myself to insults from those who aren't in on the joke. What a great guy I must be.

This ML dog brought to you by Crack(TM)

I am 0for on my quest to luck up and get at least one moneyline dog in the last 6 weeks of the season.

I am not pretending to be nostradamus here. WHat I know is that the reason odds exist is because sometimes shit happens. I try to search for the spot where I think shit can happen. I think shit can happen in Nevada tonite. I watched every play of the VTech game. Boise should not have won that game. Their defense was worn down heavily by VT who just kept bringing it the whole game. I think Nevada has a similar qb but a much better offense. I don't think they are as mistake prone as the V.Tech offense.

I think Boise is the no. 1 team in the country but think their ultimate weakness is the running qb who can make plays with his legs as well who happens to have some play makers around him.

So tonite I have thrown my cash away on Nevada 5.75 to 1.

gl

This board is boring

Too many people saying things that too many other people can logically agree with.

If you make a post about a dog that can't be ridiculed then you are going to lose that bet more often than not. Its very simple.

step 1. Read Covers
step 2. Note percentage of observers that will agree with the points made
step 3. go the opposite.

My take on a possible 72 wins in Miami

IMO, Wade and James are a bizarro version of Pippen/Jordan. As a tandem they are probably going to be as productive as MJ and Pip but neither is as good as MJ, but both are probably better than Pip.

What people forget is that Rodman was the perfect fit for that team. He wasn't necessary for them to win a chip but no other player in the league could have played the Rodman role so well that the team would win 72 games. The closest we've seen since to a player like that was Big Ben.

However, what people fail to realize is how bad the teams are these three have played on. They will each improve just by the nature of the beast. Throw in a top 5 garbage man in the league(Haslem), and a top 5 three point marksman(Miller) and this team could end up being historic. Emphasis on could.

As far as Lebron goes, I think people need to realize that he is not a guard. He is a huge fool who is capable of doing guard things but he is not a guard. He hasn't had a chance to win because he has yet to play along championship level guards. No great big man has ever won without playing alongside a championship level guard. So, lets all stop pretending that Lebron is a guard and reserve judgement for what he does this season and the next 4 or 5 that follow. I can't give him that excuse anymore.

I like to see things that have never happened before. I'm rooting for the first player-gm trio to stick it to the league, players, and fans. I'm sick of great ... [More]

At the end of the day rings talk

Everyone saying that Lebron legacy will be tarnished is forgetting how quickly we all forget. Jordan was pegged as a scorer who would never win a title. We all forget, and I'm pretty sure some of us said it(I'm too young to have said it but it might have been me). Kobe was one more championshipless year away from being a joke. You wouldn't know it from listening to his fanboys. The Celtics were supposed to be a 45 win team after they added Allen and Garnett. Now we all saw there championship potential coming. It goes on and on.

If Miami wins championships people are going to respect the ring. If they win 70 games people who said they could never win a title will be saying I told you.

Revisionist historians get ready to do your thing.

Duke v. Butler in the finals

Black president all white championship game.....whats going on in this world?

seton hall ml

This is a simple capping job IMO. West Virginia is a top 5 team IMO. However, when you look at their numbers by category they really only excel in one are(oreb). WVA wins games by getting more shot attempts at the rim. Seton Hall is not as good as WVA. However they present a tough matchup because they are no. 2 in the country in T.O percentage. This means that they are going to get 3 or 4 extra looks at the basket that the average team won't. This will negate WVA's main advantage. They could win this game by more than 3 points.

gl all

1 week into new system

Goal: start with small amount and make it grow

Theory: Games can be grouped into types. I came up with 4 types of games. Long story short I give each team a ranking of + or -. The 4 types of games are the different permutations.

Strategy: Find similar games where I think the dog will win and create 3 ml parlays per night each involving 2 teams. If I hit one I am profitable. This works with any parlay involving odds of -110 or higher. You profit at least 20% of your total bet amount if you hit 1 parlay. With ml parlays this is a much more powerful tool.

So far: So Good. I have had nights of hitting 2 of 3. I have had nights where I missed all 3. Most nights I only hit 1. On Saturday I was able to bet 18 games. So that was 3 nights worth of work.

I started making 3 bets of 10 dollars. I am now making bets of 40 dollars. I increase my bet amount 20% each day. I am plus 357 dollars with a total investment of 30 dollars.In two weeks I should be betting the maximum. Just in time for March.

gl all

why the dunk contest sucks

Because all these fuckers make so much money now.

Back in the day the risk of Michael Jordan losing the dunk contest was less than the opportunity cost of not going after the extra publicity/notoriety/credibility.

Now Lebron James has already made more money than Jordan did during his first 10 years in the L.

FWIW, I wouldn't get involved in this contest if I was a top player either.

Nova reminds me of Wake in 05'

Lots of offense no fucking defense...led by an incredibly efficient point. That being said, Gtown reminds me of a suckier Gtown 07'. I'm taking Nova to the bank in my hometown.

gl all

Lebron vs. Durant????

Come on fellas,

1. Lebron is doing things that havent been done since Jordan was in the game.  His avgs 29, 8, 7 career in the playoffs.

2.  Lebron shoots 55% gets 8 rebs and 7 ast,
    Durant shoots 52, gets 7 rebs and 2 ast<--------
   Lebron avgs 27.2 pts per 36 mins
   Durant 26.8 pts per 36 mins

Kevin Durant does nothing as well as Lebron inthe major categories.
He bests him in 3pt pct and ft pct if you want to hang your hat on something.

3. For anyone bringing up Kobe....come on man...has done nothing in his career without another all-star. Nothing!

Go on 82 games and look up clutch stats. Lebron shoots 55%(42% from 3). The only category Kobe beats Lebron in is shots attempted. And Lebron kills him in assists.

looking ahead to final four

IMO,
Duke and Kansas are locks. Im not trying to get into those reasons.

What I want to discuss is the Merrits of several other teams to get those other two spots. What final four teams always have is great point guard play. Or, at least better than everyone else. 2006 was probably the worst year the NCAA had ever seen for point guards. That year was followed by several straight years of great point guard play. This year doesn't compare to last year, but there are still some outstanding point guards.

Just going straight by offensive rating(ratio of plays ending in points to total plays ended by to, shot, assist, oreb, or fga). The average player has a 101 offensive rating.
These are the best point guards who don't play for Duke or Kansas but play for a pretty good team. I limited this to top 30 teams.
IMO, we better watch out for BYU and Baylor. I'm looking into futures right now.

cuse- triche 111
byu- fridette 122
wiscy- taylor 111
kentucky- john wall 114
maryland- vazquez 110
missouri- taylor 117
k st- clemente 110
ohio st.- turner 110
mich st.-lucas 113
wright- 113
baylor- carter 127
marquette- odom 110
utah st.-quayle 115
az st.-glasser 111

Is anyone on this site really an expert at reading lines?

I can only speak on my own record when I get on or off a play because of the line and it is not good. In 2004-5, I played nothing but consensus plays that I disagreed with before I knew they were consensus plays. This however led to me being unable to form an opinion without knowing what the line was first. Call me stupid I guess. Anyway......

I can remember one guy who made 4 and 5 team parlays off reverse line movement in college football each saturday morning and he hit most of them that I saw. I considered that significant because most of us can't even hit one of those season. He was hitting more than one a weekend. Anyway....

I'm just getting sick of reading about this line and that line being "fishy". Or reading about what "vegas" wants on a particular game. The reason why they make money(presumably they are profitable) is because we as a betting public have no clue about how they accomplish that goal.

Maybe lines aren't fishy. Maybe books have loss leaders the same way that retail stores have loss leaders.

update on the 80% system

I've been trying to write a program that will pick me 80% winners (su). As I've said before anything above 67% has been impossible. I started to get close by combining some aspects of the different programs but as soon as I posted I got blasted that night.  I tweeked a few things and am back. Lets see where this gets me. Or gets us if this turns out to be able to produce profits.

My system gives every single favorite a numerical rating. The top half of those teams win straight up about 85% of the time over my two weeks of data. I should probably back test further than when I started keeping this information that would be a giant pain in my ass and take some of the fun out of this process.

Now the bottom half of the favorites win less than 50% of the time. This is where I'm going to try and exploit the books.

There were 12 teams in the bottom half of my ratings. I narrowed them down to my favorite 6 and put them in a round robin.

Oklahoma City at Atlanta (Moneyline ) Oklahoma City 3.30 Towson at St Josephs (Moneyline ) Towson 3.85 Western Ky at Middle Tenn St (Moneyline ) ... [More]

I like La Tech +6.5 tonight

Houston's record when they win the ft battle 4-0
   *those teams were Troy, Nichols St., Citadel, Oklahoma
   *those teams were all ranked 300 or lower at fta other than         
          oklahoma ranked 130.
Houston's record when they lose the ft battle 3-3

La Tech is ranked 49th in getting to the free throw line.

In the games where Houston won while losing the ft battle they shot at least 57,64,and 52 efg(ncaa average 48.9). Those teams give up 47, 55, and 52 to their opponents.

LaTech is giving up 49.1.

Of the 3 losses 2 were to teams in the top half of the country(no.27,no.103) in TOs. The other team just absolutely clobbered them at the ft line(San Diego)

La Tech is ranked 61st in TO.

In the the end La Tech looks poised to pull off an upset

La Tech ML

gl all
   

stanford giving 14????

There is plenty to like about the dog in this matchup.

1. The first thing I always look for is a matchup where the favorite's best asset is something the dog does horribly. That leaves less to cap because that will always inflate the line as if its a given and there is never a such thing as a given. Right now James Madison(against bad competition albeit) has shown that is can play +margin basketball without winning the turnover battle. Meanwhile Stanford has lost 2 games recently in which it won the turnover battle. Red glag.

2. The next thing I look for is some aspect of the game where the dog is one of the better teams. James Madison is 14th in country right now in def fg%. They held Ohio St. to one of its lowest offensive output(106pts/100 possessions) of the season pre-turner injury. The only team that made it tougher on them was UNC. And Ohio St. also played Cal and FSU.

I don't think Stanford is a very good basketball team right now. James Madison ML

gl all

NFL week 17. The lines suck this week

I hate this week's slate of games. It is filled with wrong team favored games. By that I mean games where "the public" will think the wrong team is favored. I was looking forward to getting Houston and Cleveland as home dogs. They are favorites. Houston is a big favorite. I was looking forward to possibly taking NYJ as a -1 or lower. Wrong!

Oh well, as a dog bettor I'm stuck with my one big play of the day.


Kansas City ML prob around +400 or more

gl everyone

Michigan St over Texas tomorrow will probably be my biggest play to date

Lucas will be the best point Texas has played this year. Texas creates alot of turnovers by playing against Point guards who are uncomfortable with their length and athleticism. Lucas will be ok under the pressure if not great. Also Texas gave up 48% shooting(more if you give xt credit for 3s) to UNC on Saturday. And I think Deon Thompson just missed another layup. It took Texas a 25 off rebound effort to beat UNC. I didn't come away with a great confidence that they could beat a big team with a confident point guard.

I'm sure the line will be high and I might just ML that one depending on how tonights wagers fair

gl all

Here's some fodder for you mommy's boys.....Oakland straight up tomorrow

Denver is still soft. Oakland has been doing some things right like hitting opposing qbs and running the ball when their still in the game. Denver can be run on and their qb can be gotten to. I like Oakland and won't be surprised if they mop up the field with Denver.

gl all