Posted Sunday, February 03, 2013 08:47 PM
prolly should not have made it at all
this is always is why i write from my mom's basement
Posted Thursday, January 17, 2013 09:23 PM
Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 01:09 PM
As always keep the points Ill take the ML
As always my pick is based on guard play and situation.
Make no mistake, Lville is a final four team. I am not betting against Lville because of a lack of talent.
L'ville has a giant case of the darn arounds right now. I've caught a couple of their games on replay and this is a bored bunch. To me, thats what happens when you have a couple college level prodigies toiling in obscurity. Noone's watching and they're good enough to screw around and win.
Now, they have to bring it up to Uconn who has been playing with something to prove. Uconn has great guards. They play efficient basketball and don't force the issue and put their less than stellar teammates in great positions to make contributions.
L'ville guards play exactly the opposite. They don't play particularly efficient. They are relentless. They just leave scraps for their teammates when they cant get anything going for themselves. They easily run circles around most combos on offensive end and render them nuetral on the defensive end. Tonight they have met their match. 2 guys who equal them in talent but play much smarter.
Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 01:57 PM
As always gimme the ML.
1st clue is the line. Books could probably get 50/50 action on 3.
2nd.I rate the point guard matchup at even. I usually like to take the better guards. Here I am getting a home favorite with an even matchup at the key position. The hidden difference is in foul calls. Dillard doesn't foul and lives at the foul line. I will take that at home each and every time.
Butler is more talented. Thats not in question. Just dont think it will be their day.
Posted Thursday, January 10, 2013 05:40 PM
This is all about Miami. They struggle against big guys who defend the rim without fouling.
Portland has noone who fits that description.
Miami has lost 4 of last 10. 3 of those losses came on the 3 lowest totals of the stretch. Each was under 190. The 4th loss came on a back to back against Milwaukee.
The total tonight is 194. Portland may be on the rise but they are not ready to handle the 3 olympians coming off an embarassing loss.
Avoid overthinking this one.
Posted Thursday, January 10, 2013 05:20 PM
As always the books can have the points. Gimme the ML.
As always gimme the better guards as dogs in the right situation.
Durand Scott and Larkin are too much for young Marcus Paige and crew. Why Williams has been increasing his minutes as of late befuddles me. These cats are active defense and they do it without fouling.
UNC is not playing well though they do have superior talent. I think Roy Williams has lost it. They will get it together by tournament time just like they have the past couple of years. But tonight is not their night.
Posted Wednesday, January 09, 2013 01:47 PM
Got Denver 3.75 to 1 to win SB last week. Hopping on Seattle 3 to 1 to win the NFC this week.
Denver has elite qb and homefield against a pretty weak AFC field. Elite qb are limited to Manning P, Brady, and Rodgers. Everyone else can just calm down. Non-elite qbs need a few years of great draft classes around them to make the superbowl. The Ravens are old. The Texans qb situation is just too awful. That the Texans have let Schaub guide them through this small SB window is a travesty. Their GM needs to be tried in front of the inquisition.
In the NFC Green Bay has just dug themselves too big a hole. With homefield they probably had a shot at the superbowl against a field that doesn't include a red hot Giants team. But without it the 15-1 team of last year proved that this group was Shaky and needed to improve. What did they change? They arrogantly came back status quo as if that Giants ass whippin was an anomoly. It wasn't.
SF decided to change from a great team led by solid qb play to a boom or bust squad. They brought back a team that was 2 fumbled punts against the NY Cryptonites from going to the Superbowl. And then they upgraded the receiving core and their younger players improved greatly. Why switch to the Giants gameplan of boom or bust qb surrounded by talent. It took 6 years for that to work there. That may work at some point in the future but they missed a golden opportunity this year. They are talented enough but its not all coming togeth... [More]
Posted Wednesday, January 09, 2013 12:27 PM
I don't need the points at all. I'll take the moneyline.
Gimme the better guards in this situation every time.
Chicago's guards are awful. Charlotte has a similar small quick backcourt to Milwaukee and they were able to win by 10 as 10 point underdogs in Chicago on New Year's Eve.
Milwaukee is playing back to back. I'm assuming this is why the line is so high. Milwaukee does not have a player the caliber of Noah. However they do have a slew of above average rebounders and noone logs 30 minutes besides Jennings and Ellis who could probably play 6 days a week.
Posted Wednesday, January 02, 2013 01:08 PM
I am not a fan. Gambling for whats now more than a decade has ruined my ability to be a fan. On to the game. This is just from a guy thats seen every game and almost every play.
The skins are probably the most unique team in the league. They are horrible on 3rd down and have one of the top 5 offenses in the league. Take that in. This means they are winning 1st and 2nd down at an absurd clip.This means you have to throw almost every thing you know about the NFL out when you play them. Because thats not supposed to be possible.
It starts with Griffin. Noone can wait longer than him to throw the ball once he recognizes blitz. Watch he long he waits to throw the ball when a blitz is coming and then notice that every time he is able to get through his entire motion thus most of the time he ends up being hit somewhere on his back. Thank you Bill Polian for being candid and explaining that to us wanna be scouts. 4 man pressure is also never going to get to him. He makes players like JPP look silly trying to tackle him. He has this ability to wait to untill you fully commit until he jukes. Its uncanny. So your best chance is to lay good licks on him when he decides to stay in the pocket and throw and knock him silly. And he does this maybe 5 times a game and gets through is motion enough to protect himself. Where he takes big hits is running around past the line of scrimmage. Again this is unbiased. Im not a fan I'm just looking for betting angles.
Another uncann... [More]
Posted Wednesday, January 02, 2013 12:41 PM
Taking the moneyline. Yall can have the points.
How many times a year do you get the better qb with odds to back it up?
Florida has the lesser qb and a possible mismatch with their tackles against Marcus Smith.
That being said every other angle points to a big Florida cover. I think the qb disadvantage and bad tackle matchup point to an easy L'ville win over an overconfident Florida bunch
Posted Wednesday, December 19, 2012 11:12 AM
My purpose in wagering is not to make money but to see how close I can get to picking every game right. Since I'm typing in this forum and not snorkeling under a pile of nubile women you've probably guessed that this hasn't gone so well.
My hypothesis stipulates that since the books are able to put out numbers which empirically ensure middling the public their must be some group of accurate numbers that these numbers are based off of.
I have a few weeks of eurekas. So I'm come here to the testing grounds before I move to some island and corner the market on hookers.
These are not against the spread but SU. I've found that if you can pick 67% SU then you have a great chance of breaking even against the spread(i.e 53%).
If I hit 75/100 I'm officially selling to the highest bidder. Since this is highly unlikely I'll save you the ridicule. Whats the use of ridiculing a guy with such a ridiculously handle anyway? Some guy sitting at home drinking flat four loko wearing underwear with holes in the wrong spots? Ask yourself that before you hit submit on your zingers
Posted Saturday, December 03, 2011 02:58 PM
Instead of immediately enforcing a personal foul a team could save them up like timeouts to be used whenever they want.
Driving for a game winning field goal...nope your nose tackle stomped on a dudes head 2 qtrs ago.
3rd and 26....the other teams diva wide receiver proposed a to a cheerleader in the endzone.
This should happen.
Yeah nothing to do with gambling.
Posted Saturday, October 08, 2011 11:09 AM
The brokerman's favorite dogs will be kept here. Fading has been a good tactic as I have had a streak as bad as 4-21 recently. I try to be systematic about my picks, that way I learn something even when the bookie is conjuring up a nice dark alley to render my legs useless.
I bet with big odds so 40% wins will put me up by a good margin at the end of the year.
On to my sorry picks....all moneyline
Central Michigan 4.50
texas tech 3.95
total risk 12.65 units
possible payout 48 units(each bet calibrated for 12 units if won)
1 win puts me near breakeven. Anything after that is gravy.
starting bankroll 20 units
Posted Wednesday, September 28, 2011 10:16 PM
These two teams are who we think they are
Bama is better at the 4 positions I consider key in big games(qb, LT,RB, TE)
Thats a big advantage and what I need to see out of a road favorite.
After that I simply ask myself which group of guys I would take in a street fight.
Alabama all the way.
Posted Sunday, September 18, 2011 11:57 AM
Miserable fail yesterday with 3 ml dogs who failed to even cover.
Today's money down the drain
on Carolina x Tennessee x chicago
this will lose and not even be close
but should this parlay ever ever ever ever hit I reserve the right to be insufferable in this thread.
Posted Saturday, September 17, 2011 10:54 AM
Just need a place to brag should this highly unlikely parlay come through for me
60 to 1 odds
save your caps lock condemnations
I know its going to lose
however i reserve the right to be insufferable should it hit
Posted Sunday, May 15, 2011 11:52 PM
Series doesn't start to someone loses at home. I didn't bet on the Heat so I'm more worried about OKC figuring out how to beat Dallas and get to the finals. But lets be serious here guys. About 5 things happened tonight that are not happening again in this series.
Is Noah really going to average 8 off. rebs a game? If so lets put him in the Hall right now.
Are the Bulls going to shoot 50% from 3? Noone does that
Are the Bulls really going to beat Miami to every lose ball throughout the series? Lets not forget who the best 2 athletes in the Nba are.
Is Bosh going to avg 30?
Are Lebron and Dwade going to avg a combined 33?
This game told us nothing about Chicago.
The Heat played awful. Lets not take anything away from Chicago but at the same time lets not all start blowing each other yet either. That was 10 guys dialed in and that was a thing of beauty. But it was pretty much just the opening kickoff being kicked out of the stadium. Impressive but not very meaningful in the grand scheme.
Posted Sunday, February 20, 2011 12:44 PM
*I will use Vegas, books, linesmakers interchangeably. There are referring to whomever is charging juice.
*Vegas is the best predictor we have.
*Plenty of computer geniuses have free for the public systems available however none of them have a lower margin of error than Vegas.
*If something seems too good to be true 50 percent of the time it is.
*Until you can create a method to make lines that have an overall lower margin of error than the books you will not be able to beat them.
This is more information that any author gives you and they charge you to boot. I'm giving it for free and opening myself to insults from those who aren't in on the joke. What a great guy I must be.
Posted Friday, November 26, 2010 10:27 AM
I am 0for on my quest to luck up and get at least one moneyline dog in the last 6 weeks of the season.
I am not pretending to be nostradamus here. WHat I know is that the reason odds exist is because sometimes shit happens. I try to search for the spot where I think shit can happen. I think shit can happen in Nevada tonite. I watched every play of the VTech game. Boise should not have won that game. Their defense was worn down heavily by VT who just kept bringing it the whole game. I think Nevada has a similar qb but a much better offense. I don't think they are as mistake prone as the V.Tech offense.
I think Boise is the no. 1 team in the country but think their ultimate weakness is the running qb who can make plays with his legs as well who happens to have some play makers around him.
So tonite I have thrown my cash away on Nevada 5.75 to 1.
Posted Tuesday, October 12, 2010 12:07 PM
Too many people saying things that too many other people can logically agree with.
If you make a post about a dog that can't be ridiculed then you are going to lose that bet more often than not. Its very simple.
step 1. Read Covers
step 2. Note percentage of observers that will agree with the points made
step 3. go the opposite.
Posted Tuesday, August 03, 2010 09:29 AM
IMO, Wade and James are a bizarro version of Pippen/Jordan. As a tandem
they are probably going to be as productive as MJ and Pip but neither
is as good as MJ, but both are probably better than Pip.
What people forget is that Rodman was the perfect fit for that team. He
wasn't necessary for them to win a chip but no other player in the
league could have played the Rodman role so well that the team would
win 72 games. The closest we've seen since to a player like that was
However, what people fail to realize is how bad the teams are these
three have played on. They will each improve just by the nature of the
beast. Throw in a top 5 garbage man in the league(Haslem), and a top 5
three point marksman(Miller) and this team could end up being historic. Emphasis on could.
As far as Lebron goes, I think people need to realize that he is not a guard. He is a huge fool who is capable of doing guard things but he is not a guard. He hasn't had a chance to win because he has yet to play along championship level guards. No great big man has ever won without playing alongside a championship level guard. So, lets all stop pretending that Lebron is a guard and reserve judgement for what he does this season and the next 4 or 5 that follow. I can't give him that excuse anymore.
I like to see things that have never happened before. I'm rooting for
the first player-gm trio to stick it to the league, players, and fans.
I'm sick of great ... [More]
Posted Thursday, July 08, 2010 06:48 PM
Everyone saying that Lebron legacy will be tarnished is forgetting how quickly we all forget. Jordan was pegged as a scorer who would never win a title. We all forget, and I'm pretty sure some of us said it(I'm too young to have said it but it might have been me). Kobe was one more championshipless year away from being a joke. You wouldn't know it from listening to his fanboys. The Celtics were supposed to be a 45 win team after they added Allen and Garnett. Now we all saw there championship potential coming. It goes on and on.
If Miami wins championships people are going to respect the ring. If they win 70 games people who said they could never win a title will be saying I told you.
Revisionist historians get ready to do your thing.
Posted Sunday, March 28, 2010 10:03 PM
Black president all white championship game.....whats going on in this world?
Posted Saturday, February 20, 2010 10:59 AM
This is a simple capping job IMO. West Virginia is a top 5 team IMO. However, when you look at their numbers by category they really only excel in one are(oreb). WVA wins games by getting more shot attempts at the rim. Seton Hall is not as good as WVA. However they present a tough matchup because they are no. 2 in the country in T.O percentage. This means that they are going to get 3 or 4 extra looks at the basket that the average team won't. This will negate WVA's main advantage. They could win this game by more than 3 points.
Posted Wednesday, February 17, 2010 06:13 PM
Goal: start with small amount and make it grow
Theory: Games can be grouped into types. I came up with 4 types of games. Long story short I give each team a ranking of + or -. The 4 types of games are the different permutations.
Strategy: Find similar games where I think the dog will win and create 3 ml parlays per night each involving 2 teams. If I hit one I am profitable. This works with any parlay involving odds of -110 or higher. You profit at least 20% of your total bet amount if you hit 1 parlay. With ml parlays this is a much more powerful tool.
So far: So Good. I have had nights of hitting 2 of 3. I have had nights where I missed all 3. Most nights I only hit 1. On Saturday I was able to bet 18 games. So that was 3 nights worth of work.
I started making 3 bets of 10 dollars. I am now making bets of 40 dollars. I increase my bet amount 20% each day. I am plus 357 dollars with a total investment of 30 dollars.In two weeks I should be betting the maximum. Just in time for March.