looking ahead to final four

IMO,
Duke and Kansas are locks. Im not trying to get into those reasons.

What I want to discuss is the Merrits of several other teams to get those other two spots. What final four teams always have is great point guard play. Or, at least better than everyone else. 2006 was probably the worst year the NCAA had ever seen for point guards. That year was followed by several straight years of great point guard play. This year doesn't compare to last year, but there are still some outstanding point guards.

Just going straight by offensive rating(ratio of plays ending in points to total plays ended by to, shot, assist, oreb, or fga). The average player has a 101 offensive rating.
These are the best point guards who don't play for Duke or Kansas but play for a pretty good team. I limited this to top 30 teams.
IMO, we better watch out for BYU and Baylor. I'm looking into futures right now.

cuse- triche 111
byu- fridette 122
wiscy- taylor 111
kentucky- john wall 114
maryland- vazquez 110
missouri- taylor 117
k st- clemente 110
ohio st.- turner 110
mich st.-lucas 113
wright- 113
baylor- carter 127
marquette- odom 110
utah st.-quayle 115
az st.-glasser 111

Is anyone on this site really an expert at reading lines?

I can only speak on my own record when I get on or off a play because of the line and it is not good. In 2004-5, I played nothing but consensus plays that I disagreed with before I knew they were consensus plays. This however led to me being unable to form an opinion without knowing what the line was first. Call me stupid I guess. Anyway......

I can remember one guy who made 4 and 5 team parlays off reverse line movement in college football each saturday morning and he hit most of them that I saw. I considered that significant because most of us can't even hit one of those season. He was hitting more than one a weekend. Anyway....

I'm just getting sick of reading about this line and that line being "fishy". Or reading about what "vegas" wants on a particular game. The reason why they make money(presumably they are profitable) is because we as a betting public have no clue about how they accomplish that goal.

Maybe lines aren't fishy. Maybe books have loss leaders the same way that retail stores have loss leaders.

update on the 80% system

I've been trying to write a program that will pick me 80% winners (su). As I've said before anything above 67% has been impossible. I started to get close by combining some aspects of the different programs but as soon as I posted I got blasted that night.  I tweeked a few things and am back. Lets see where this gets me. Or gets us if this turns out to be able to produce profits.

My system gives every single favorite a numerical rating. The top half of those teams win straight up about 85% of the time over my two weeks of data. I should probably back test further than when I started keeping this information that would be a giant pain in my ass and take some of the fun out of this process.

Now the bottom half of the favorites win less than 50% of the time. This is where I'm going to try and exploit the books.

There were 12 teams in the bottom half of my ratings. I narrowed them down to my favorite 6 and put them in a round robin.

Oklahoma City at Atlanta (Moneyline ) Oklahoma City 3.30 Towson at St Josephs (Moneyline ) Towson 3.85 Western Ky at Middle Tenn St (Moneyline ) ... [More]