aszzzbrokerman's Blog

Is perfection attainable?

By aszzzbrokerman | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, December 19, 2012 11:12 AM   20 comments
My purpose in wagering is not to make money but to see how close I can get to picking every game right. Since I'm typing in this forum and not snorkeling under a pile of nubile women you've probably guessed that this hasn't gone so well.

My hypothesis stipulates that since the books are able to put out numbers which empirically ensure middling the public their must be some group of accurate numbers that these numbers are based off of.

I have a few weeks of eurekas. So I'm come here to the testing grounds before I move to some island and corner the market on hookers.

These are not against the spread but SU. I've found that if you can pick 67% SU then you have a great chance of breaking even against the spread(i.e 53%).

Hou,OKC,NYK,SAC,LAC,Ind,Cle,Det,Pho,Mem,Was

If I hit 75/100 I'm officially selling to the highest bidder. Since this is highly unlikely I'll save you the ridicule. Whats the use of ridiculing a guy with such a ridiculously handle anyway? Some guy sitting at home drinking flat four loko wearing underwear with holes in the wrong spots? Ask yourself that before you hit submit on your zingers
20 comments
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aszzzbrokerman says:
12/20/12 12:29PM
8-3 SU
9-2 ATS closing line

Not bad so far but not perfect. Again I'm not into wagering so much as trying to be perfect. You have to reach 67% SU to reach even. My goal is 75%. Waiting for someone to make me an offer I can't refuse. Tonight I like all the home dogs to win SU.

Min,Dal,Por
PapaShango says:
12/20/12 12:33PM
Go away.
qster says:
12/20/12 12:59PM
If you think hitting 67% SU you will break even.. you are out of your mind. Unless all your SU bets are under -300.

track your SU bets and the "juice" and use a 1 unit wager and see where you stand after 100 games.
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/20/12 01:05PM
qster,

I am not very articulate. If you are good enough to pick the winner 67% of the time that will translate to roughly 52% ats. This information was gleaned from mining data from pick em leagues. Of course, this only works in pro sports where the line are usually less than double digit. I haven't gone through the college pick em data to find out what that number would be.
qster says:
12/20/12 03:06PM
So you get a better handle.

Lets say all your SU bets are under -9.5 (if you bet all favorites) and are getting on average -400 juice and all wagers are 1 unit ($100) bets.

Out of 100 bets you go 67-33 to hit 67%.
67 wins * 1 unit = 67 units or $6,700 (since ML bets are 1:1 if won)
33 loses * -400 = -132 units or -$13,200

So.. 67 - 132 = -65 units

They only way to offset this amount would be to take some underdogs and get Plus value on the juice.
c_had38 says:
12/20/12 03:34PM

He's not talking about money lines.

 

Mikado says:
12/20/12 03:43PM

That's BS, you're assuming all ML's are the same.  

"Translate roughly?"  Roughly within 20 percentage points?
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/21/12 07:17AM
Mikado,

I'm not assuming all money lines are the same. I'm saying that I went and studied what SU records translated to ATS in pickem leagues. I wanted to know how people who werent picking ATS would fair if a line was applied to their picks. I found that only those people who picked 2 out 3 would have stood a chance to make any money ATS.

That was a revelation to me. Why cap the line if you can simplify the process by just trying to pick the winner?

qster,
I have never considered betting favorites on the ML in any sport. I do see how it seems thats what I'm trying to convey. This is not my intention. I'm quite possibly remedial depending on which teacher you talk to. However, I do know that you cant take a bet that pays 3 to 4 and make money by only hitting 2 out of 3. That is not what I'm trying to convey. I'm trying to get the idea out there that the majority of the time the winner covers the spread. As I said in the original post I want to see how far this will get me by betting 100 straight games picking every game on the slate. And then of course sell to the highest bidder.


dalegend says:
12/21/12 08:19AM
Your perception of perfection in this industry is flawed. As long as your bankroll is growing, and the money is coming in..that my friend is perfection. 
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/21/12 11:19AM
Dalegend,
Thats one form of perfection. I'm reaching for the sky. And must be high to think its possible
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/21/12 11:21AM
10-4 SU
11-3 ATS closing line

Still not perfect. Still not bad either

tonights games. picking who i think will win and seeing what they do against the closing line.
gs,ny,lac,sanantonio,mem,tor,phi,cle,bos,was
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/22/12 11:16AM
16-8 SU
14-10 ATS closing line

Pretty f-ing far from perfect last night. 6-4SU. 3-7ATS closing line. This puts me right in line with what  I've found. Im picking 67% SU. I'm sure if I were wagering without the benefit of just using the closing line that 14-10 would look more like 13-11 or 12-12.

Continuing the "grind".

GS,Den,Mem,Mia,Por,NO,Mil,Atl,Det
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/23/12 10:35AM
21-12 SU
18-15 ATS closing line

Continuing the far from perfect trend. Would probably be below the mendoza line without the benefit of the closing line. Grinding on.

BK,Min,Orl,SA,Sac,Lac

aszzzbrokerman says:
12/27/12 01:41PM
25-14SU
22-17ATS closing line

I expect these number to diverge more as time goes on. I'm benefitting form a few teams playing near flawless basketball right now.

On to tonight.
Dal, LAC
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/28/12 12:55PM
26-15su
24-17ats closing line

finally got a night with an 0 in the loss column. problem is it was by luck ats and su. Im looking to pick su winners and let the spread sort itself out.

On to tonight
Hou,Phi,Lal,Den,Det,Lac,NyK,Atl,Ind,Tor,Char,Orl
qster says:
12/28/12 03:11PM
You see???
Its not as easy as it seems.

What you can't account for is player stupidity on the arena courts/floor.
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/29/12 12:10PM
who said anything was easy? Look at all my black stars. I was really successful when I first joined up in college basketball. I hit 65% or somewhere around there. Its documented on here. Problem being I was drunk and high off the stickiest of the icky for that whole 4 months. I.e I don't remember how I did it. Alas, It was probably luck to begin with. This is another in a long line of "projects" sure to go askew.
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/29/12 12:18PM
33-20su
30-23ats closing line

(7-5su,6-6ats last night)
Take out the first night and I'm below 50% ats which is beginning to match up with my winners picked percentage. Again tghe idea is that if I can't pick the winner 67% of the time my ats % will be below 52.

on to tonight
Hou,Gs,Den,Mil,Por,Orl,Atl,Bk,N.O,Chi
aszzzbrokerman says:
12/29/12 05:12PM
forgot Min
aszzzbrokerman says:
01/02/13 12:14PM
40-24 su
34-30 ats closing line

still ahead of pace...large number of games should fix that...no 67% su and I wont be picking above 52%...currently at 62.5su and 53.1ats

Also, I'm not good enough at picking games to figure this out. But I'm guessing pickin 75% ats will net somewhere around 6)+. So I'm wondering, hypothetically of course, what percentage would I have to pick su to have a chance at 100%. I'm guessing you would have to be able to pick 100% winners just to get to 75% ats. Just thinking.

on to tonights games
Mia,Lac,Por,Cle,Mil,Hou,Pho,Mem,OkC,Ind

lost my info on Chi and Min so I'll skip those two games...too lazy
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