Manifesto outline

*I will use Vegas, books, linesmakers interchangeably. There are referring to whomever is charging juice.

*Vegas is the best predictor we have.

*Plenty of  computer geniuses have free for the  public systems available however none of them have a lower margin of error than Vegas.

*If something seems too good to be true 50 percent of the time it is.

*Until you can create a method to make lines that have an overall lower margin of error than the books you will not be able to beat them.


This is more information that any author gives you and they charge you to boot. I'm giving it for free and opening myself to insults from those who aren't in on the joke. What a great guy I must be.

Duke v. Butler in the finals

Black president all white championship game.....whats going on in this world?

seton hall ml

This is a simple capping job IMO. West Virginia is a top 5 team IMO. However, when you look at their numbers by category they really only excel in one are(oreb). WVA wins games by getting more shot attempts at the rim. Seton Hall is not as good as WVA. However they present a tough matchup because they are no. 2 in the country in T.O percentage. This means that they are going to get 3 or 4 extra looks at the basket that the average team won't. This will negate WVA's main advantage. They could win this game by more than 3 points.

gl all

1 week into new system

Goal: start with small amount and make it grow

Theory: Games can be grouped into types. I came up with 4 types of games. Long story short I give each team a ranking of + or -. The 4 types of games are the different permutations.

Strategy: Find similar games where I think the dog will win and create 3 ml parlays per night each involving 2 teams. If I hit one I am profitable. This works with any parlay involving odds of -110 or higher. You profit at least 20% of your total bet amount if you hit 1 parlay. With ml parlays this is a much more powerful tool.

So far: So Good. I have had nights of hitting 2 of 3. I have had nights where I missed all 3. Most nights I only hit 1. On Saturday I was able to bet 18 games. So that was 3 nights worth of work.

I started making 3 bets of 10 dollars. I am now making bets of 40 dollars. I increase my bet amount 20% each day. I am plus 357 dollars with a total investment of 30 dollars.In two weeks I should be betting the maximum. Just in time for March.

gl all

Nova reminds me of Wake in 05'

Lots of offense no fucking defense...led by an incredibly efficient point. That being said, Gtown reminds me of a suckier Gtown 07'. I'm taking Nova to the bank in my hometown.

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looking ahead to final four

IMO,
Duke and Kansas are locks. Im not trying to get into those reasons.

What I want to discuss is the Merrits of several other teams to get those other two spots. What final four teams always have is great point guard play. Or, at least better than everyone else. 2006 was probably the worst year the NCAA had ever seen for point guards. That year was followed by several straight years of great point guard play. This year doesn't compare to last year, but there are still some outstanding point guards.

Just going straight by offensive rating(ratio of plays ending in points to total plays ended by to, shot, assist, oreb, or fga). The average player has a 101 offensive rating.
These are the best point guards who don't play for Duke or Kansas but play for a pretty good team. I limited this to top 30 teams.
IMO, we better watch out for BYU and Baylor. I'm looking into futures right now.

cuse- triche 111
byu- fridette 122
wiscy- taylor 111
kentucky- john wall 114
maryland- vazquez 110
missouri- taylor 117
k st- clemente 110
ohio st.- turner 110
mich st.-lucas 113
wright- 113
baylor- carter 127
marquette- odom 110
utah st.-quayle 115
az st.-glasser 111

Is anyone on this site really an expert at reading lines?

I can only speak on my own record when I get on or off a play because of the line and it is not good. In 2004-5, I played nothing but consensus plays that I disagreed with before I knew they were consensus plays. This however led to me being unable to form an opinion without knowing what the line was first. Call me stupid I guess. Anyway......

I can remember one guy who made 4 and 5 team parlays off reverse line movement in college football each saturday morning and he hit most of them that I saw. I considered that significant because most of us can't even hit one of those season. He was hitting more than one a weekend. Anyway....

I'm just getting sick of reading about this line and that line being "fishy". Or reading about what "vegas" wants on a particular game. The reason why they make money(presumably they are profitable) is because we as a betting public have no clue about how they accomplish that goal.

Maybe lines aren't fishy. Maybe books have loss leaders the same way that retail stores have loss leaders.

update on the 80% system

I've been trying to write a program that will pick me 80% winners (su). As I've said before anything above 67% has been impossible. I started to get close by combining some aspects of the different programs but as soon as I posted I got blasted that night.  I tweeked a few things and am back. Lets see where this gets me. Or gets us if this turns out to be able to produce profits.

My system gives every single favorite a numerical rating. The top half of those teams win straight up about 85% of the time over my two weeks of data. I should probably back test further than when I started keeping this information that would be a giant pain in my ass and take some of the fun out of this process.

Now the bottom half of the favorites win less than 50% of the time. This is where I'm going to try and exploit the books.

There were 12 teams in the bottom half of my ratings. I narrowed them down to my favorite 6 and put them in a round robin.

Oklahoma City at Atlanta (Moneyline ) Oklahoma City 3.30 Towson at St Josephs (Moneyline ) Towson 3.85 Western Ky at Middle Tenn St (Moneyline ) ... [More]

I like La Tech +6.5 tonight

Houston's record when they win the ft battle 4-0
   *those teams were Troy, Nichols St., Citadel, Oklahoma
   *those teams were all ranked 300 or lower at fta other than         
          oklahoma ranked 130.
Houston's record when they lose the ft battle 3-3

La Tech is ranked 49th in getting to the free throw line.

In the games where Houston won while losing the ft battle they shot at least 57,64,and 52 efg(ncaa average 48.9). Those teams give up 47, 55, and 52 to their opponents.

LaTech is giving up 49.1.

Of the 3 losses 2 were to teams in the top half of the country(no.27,no.103) in TOs. The other team just absolutely clobbered them at the ft line(San Diego)

La Tech is ranked 61st in TO.

In the the end La Tech looks poised to pull off an upset

La Tech ML

gl all
   

stanford giving 14????

There is plenty to like about the dog in this matchup.

1. The first thing I always look for is a matchup where the favorite's best asset is something the dog does horribly. That leaves less to cap because that will always inflate the line as if its a given and there is never a such thing as a given. Right now James Madison(against bad competition albeit) has shown that is can play +margin basketball without winning the turnover battle. Meanwhile Stanford has lost 2 games recently in which it won the turnover battle. Red glag.

2. The next thing I look for is some aspect of the game where the dog is one of the better teams. James Madison is 14th in country right now in def fg%. They held Ohio St. to one of its lowest offensive output(106pts/100 possessions) of the season pre-turner injury. The only team that made it tougher on them was UNC. And Ohio St. also played Cal and FSU.

I don't think Stanford is a very good basketball team right now. James Madison ML

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Michigan St over Texas tomorrow will probably be my biggest play to date

Lucas will be the best point Texas has played this year. Texas creates alot of turnovers by playing against Point guards who are uncomfortable with their length and athleticism. Lucas will be ok under the pressure if not great. Also Texas gave up 48% shooting(more if you give xt credit for 3s) to UNC on Saturday. And I think Deon Thompson just missed another layup. It took Texas a 25 off rebound effort to beat UNC. I didn't come away with a great confidence that they could beat a big team with a confident point guard.

I'm sure the line will be high and I might just ML that one depending on how tonights wagers fair

gl all