IMO,
Duke and Kansas are locks. Im not trying to get into those reasons.

What I want to discuss is the Merrits of several other teams to get those other two spots. What final four teams always have is great point guard play. Or, at least better than everyone else. 2006 was probably the worst year the NCAA had ever seen for point guards. That year was followed by several straight years of great point guard play. This year doesn't compare to last year, but there are still some outstanding point guards.

Just going straight by offensive rating(ratio of plays ending in points to total plays ended by to, shot, assist, oreb, or fga). The average player has a 101 offensive rating.
These are the best point guards who don't play for Duke or Kansas but play for a pretty good team. I limited this to top 30 teams.
IMO, we better watch out for BYU and Baylor. I'm looking into futures right now.

cuse- triche 111
byu- fridette 122
wiscy- taylor 111
kentucky- john wall 114
maryland- vazquez 110
missouri- taylor 117
k st- clemente 110
ohio st.- turner 110
mich st.-lucas 113
wright- 113
baylor- carter 127
marquette- odom 110
utah st.-quayle 115
az st.-glasser 111