Need Hedge expert's (possibly DoubleUp4Life's) advice and take on this

I haven't really played much NFL b/c I put all my eggs into 1 basket this season. Now I am sweating bullets.I have 2 chances to limit my loss with the Bills playing DEN and NE the next 2 weeks. I know that the NE line will be over-inflated and the Bills will be undervalued (with what little value they still have) - so this Saturday may be my only chance to help cut my losses.  Below is some very simple scenarios that I have drawn up, If ANYONE has any advice on a better route to take, please take a few moments to outline your path.

BILLS over 5.5 wins -120
Risked 2,400 to win 2,000

Scenerio 1

-2400 = -2400 (Let it ride and Bills don't win 1 of next 2 games)

Scenerio 2

-2400 + 2000 = -400 (Bills under 5.5 wins and Broncos ML win)
OR
+2000 - 2900 = -900 (Bills over 5.5 wins and Broncos ML Loss)

Scenario 3

Hell freezes over and the Bills win - which will take me having balls of still to have confidence in them at this point, which I don't

SEAHAWKS VS SKINS DISCUSSION

Let's get some good dialog flowing on this game y'all. I have been intrigued by this game all weak with a HEAVY lean on Seattle.

I closely watched the Skins/Boys game last week and it was a very physical game. The Skins definately had to "get up" for the divisional game and are no doubt deflated after knowing they could have beaten their long hated rival. With this motivational angle, mixed with the well known cross-country mixed with Seattle's known home field craziness..I can't get off pulling the trigger with them at -3 +100 locally here. Below is more info for the case for the Seahawks...Again, I welcome Skins backers to explain to me why they are laying their money on them.

• Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
• Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC

Stanford 2h discussion

I'm guessing it may be Stanford -3 or possibly a pk for the 2H - from watching the game, I don't see how ND can hang...I really thing Stanford rolls. What do you all think?

Big line movement in Duke vs NC - anyone know why?

Watched it jump from 11 to 13 in a few minutes on many books - anyone have a read or info on this game?

HOW is TEXAS a favorite today? Open Discussion - Please post

I live here in Austin, followed the team all yet and yet to place a wager on them. I look at all the "square" numbers on the game and see this as an outright K-State win, especially with our injuries and lack of run game which is key to take the pressure off our no-so-talented QB's at the moment. Please shed some light and your thoughts on this game.

Where is fade friend thread?

Always funny, and profitable - DONDE ESTA MIS AMIGO?

MLB Series Futures Discussion

801	Tampa Bay Series			+151
802	Texas Series			-171

Your welcome - Anyone betting Dallas/Lions MUST read this

I am a season ticket holder for the Boys - and I get these press releases every week. It's a great read either way you look at it, may help you in your betting decision. These are the official game notes (also known as the white papers) for the game. Enjoy Covers brothers!

http://bit.ly/pr5rpp

TTech vs USF backers Discussion

I see the guard play of TTech really giving USF some BIG problems...this is a small and fast team.Keep in mind, this is no longer the teams of Bobby Knight (who REFUSED to recruit talent based on them leaving college early)....Pat Knight has a great respect from recruits and Pat is not as disciplined as his father in recruiting 3-4 year players (allows for more talent to come and go). This is one of the seasons where you will see Pat's recruiting ability shine, and I see them winning this one. The only loss they had was at an underrated UNT team that was a "sleeper" if you will. There has not been a quality win from either squad yet...with both teams playing Liberty and Georgia Southern (basis of comparison)  Thoughts and opinions?

Lean: TTech -165 ml

49ers -3 Discussion thread

I wanted to get some good feedback/discussion from everyone here to get their thoughts here. Home field in the NFL is an automatic -3 points, and the bookmakers are saying that SF is only a field goal better than the Seahawks...I don't buy that. Pete got rid of all the veteran staff, and is under a lot of pressure in this spot with an inferior team. The 9'ers will win the west, and I think they roll here. Thoughts?

Lean:
SF-3

CoJo's College Pigskin Thread

Notre Dame - 3 (-120)
Risking 4.8 to win 4

Mississippi - 20.5 (-110)
Risking 5.5 to win 5

USC - 20
Risking 5.5 to win 5

CoJo's Pigskin Thread

No way Favre keeps this close...Going to be a ground and pound game for the Vikes. Favre had the best season of his career last season while facing one of the easiest schedules in the league. He will not repeat it this game, nor year.

Saints ML -250
Risking 12.5 to win 5

U49
Risking 3.6 to win 3

Baltimore Backers

At first glance, a circle is put around this game...why?

Cliff Lee
Baltimore

Should be a no brainier right? Am I searching too much on this game to find a reason to bet on the O's? I really like Seattle personally, and Lee has had good stuff this year, just hasn't had any run support. The M's just fired their batting coach and they actually won a game.

The line is -175 and -110RL here locally....may lay off cause of the juice. Thoughts and comments?

Did y'all just hear this stat from Marv Albert...? Those with dvr's please listen to this

I will immediately backtrack to see how valid this statement is, but Marv and Reggie were going on and on about how when a team is up 3-0, there have been 90 straight ( including today's Orlando win) closeout sweeps by the team that is up 3-0.

Laying some HUGE chalk tonight, big play and my logic behind it

I'm rolling with 2 ML's tonight, LAL and PHX. I also like the over on PHX game. Any of you sharps weary of these plays? Looking for some feedback here.

Logic:

• Grant Hill and Jason Richardson were a combined 4-21 shooting
  
• Phoenix was just 9-of-24 in the 4th Q, including 3-of-13 threes
• Phoenix is 30-13 (70.0%) ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more in its previous game

• The only time the Lakers lost this year was on the road in OKC when Bynum was out of the lineup...he had 13 points in his return last game
  
• I look for Artest to hold KD to another sub-par performance tonight.
  
• OKC may cover, they will not win!

I just might have had the best week in betting I have ever had!

I am just so f'n stoked, my local here in Austin does not like me, that's for sure. Just thought I'd share my success.

Internet / -1Apr 13 07:15 PM

NBA
STRAIGHT BET
[702] CHICAGO -4-120 (B+½)

1920 / 1600

1600
WIN
WIN
04/13/2010 01:52 PM Internet / -1Apr 13 07:40 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[906] COL -150
( J MAINE -R / G SMITH -L )

2400 / 1600

1600
WIN
WIN
04/13/2010 01:52 PM Internet / -1Apr 13 07:40 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[906] COL -175
( ACTION )

963 / 550

550
WIN
WIN
04/13/2010 06:46 PM Internet / -1Apr 13 09:52 PM

NBA
STRAIGHT BET
[706] PHOENIX -5-110

1760 / 1600

1600
WIN
WIN
04/13/2010 01:52 PM Internet / -1Apr 13 09:52 PM

NBA
STRAIGHT BET
[706] PHOENIX -215

3440 / 1600

1600
WIN
WIN
04/13/2010 01:52 PM Internet / -1Apr 14 01:20 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[952] CUB -135
( ACTION )

3375 / 2500

2500
WIN
WIN
04/14/2010 11:44 AM Internet / -1Apr 15 06:10 PM

MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[912] FLA -145
( ACTION )

725 / 500

500
WIN
WIN
04/15/2010 05:54 PM Internet / -1











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the Cavs opened last year's playoffs by going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS,

Don't expect to see a difference here against the baby Bulls.

Cavs - 11 POD

Mavs vs. Spurs Discussion

I'd like to get some real info out on the table and see what all of you think about this game tonight. The line has been moving lower due to some really big money being put on the Spurs...locally here in Austin I am getting the game at 5.5, been at 6 most of the day. This is a VERY VERY big game for the Mavs, and this is the biggest pointspread between the two teams this year, and the Spurs are playing some great basketball right now.

Here's the raw meat:
-Mavs want the #2 seed
-Mavs are a horrible 10-29-1ATS at home this year
-Spurs are off a long high-scoring affair with MIN & Spurs are not good on back-to-backs (especially against motivational situations like this)

I want to take Dallas ML here (-230 locally), I am scared of the back-door cover, or it could be just another Texas shootout. I don't see Dallas loosing this game....Your thoughts everyone?

Austin degenerates thread, get all the SXSW hipsters out of town!

I figured I saw at least 5-6 people posting that were here in Austin. I personally haven't pulled the trigger on any games yet, leaning towards SDST + 4.5 later tonight. We should get some beers and watch some games, talk some sports and make some cash. BOL fellas.

About to pull the trigger on Clemson, anyone wanna talk me out of it?

I have a heavy lean on Clem - 7 tonight, but I don't want to throw away profits, already 3-0 on the day after K St. (marq and NW cashed for me).....Thoughts on this game fellas?

CoJo's DoJo: ST Bases

ATL (-130) 1 unit
TOR (-125) 1 unit

I will beat Estes1717 this year in winning percentage and units

I figured I'd give myself a nice litmus test and go against the guy who dominated the bases last season. BOL this season again, and yes, my goal is to beat you on the bases. A little friendly competition never hurt anyone.

Bol everyone!

Pistons/Warriors Information that you cannot pass up, and a 3-0 card :)

Pistons are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played the second of back to back games.

Looking back further 4-12-1 ATS the last 17 times that they played the second of back to back games.

Golden State is 14-6 ATS on the season, when coming off a double-digit loss.


My last posted plays were The Saints and Under....a 10k night for me personally (largest I have ever had yet).

I am hammering away tonight
GS
UCLA
Wash St.

Josh Hamilton expects &quot;96 wins&quot; for the Rangers this year

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- Rangers pitchers and catchers were on the field for their first workout on Friday morning. Outfielder Josh Hamilton was with them.

He went right down the checklist.

"I feel good," Hamilton said. "I feel strong. I got all of my weight back. I'm running good, throwing good, fielding good. My back feels good, my abs feel good, my rear feels good. Everything feels good."

"I'm going to call 96 wins," Hamilton said.

He predicted 90 wins last year. The Rangers won 87 games, and they did it while getting basically a half-season out of their two-time All-Star outfielder.

Good news for my Rangers.....and their backers!

DO NOT BET ON THE SUPER BOWL WITHOUT READIN THIS(Fact vs fiction)

In terms of teams which made the playoffs, the Colts and Saints had three common opponents. They both beat up on the Cardinals. They also both beat the Jets by roughly the same number of points - the Colts also lost to the Jets but that can't really be counted as it was 'meaningless' and Mannning and the starters got pulled. There was a big difference in their games vs. New England though. The Colts barely beat the Patriots, winning by a single point. Meanwhile, the Saints pounded the Patriots by a score of 38-17.

Advantage: SAINTS


Below is the ACCUSCORE DLR:

ROT TEAM PS UNITS YTD OU UNITS YTD SIM WIN % VEGAS LINE OPEN VEGAS LINE MIDWEEK VEGAS LINE SIM LINE PREDICTION 101 NO -500 -500 46.3% 55.5 56.5 56.5 56 UNDER 102 IND 20 -290 53.7% -4.5 -5.5 -4.5 -3 NO


Advantage: SAINTS

I also take into account some of the respected Covers Community picks....The best cappers we have here on this site are majorly in favor of the Saints and the points. With that said.....


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