atxcojo's Blog

Posted Friday, January 09, 2015 01:43 AM

One of the, if not the, best reads of the Dal vs GB game (credit: swiftwings88 via reddit)

Three Things the Cowboys Need to Stop in Order to Beat Green Bay

The inside run game.  Contrary to most pundits I don’t think that Murray is the key to Sunday’s game.  Don’t get me wrong I think he is extremely important and that Romo’s (whose play is the key to the game for Dallas) success hinges on his play, but the run game isn’t where Dallas will win and lose.  Where beating Green Bay starts however, is the run game.  Realistically, the Cowboys defensive backfield is probably in for a long day. Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb, and Co. have been absolutely dynamite at Lambeau and against better DBs than the Cowboys field.  Rodgers has dominated Rod Marinelli coached defenses (used to coach in the NFC North) and Green Bay just seems to have the magic touch at home on the deep ball.  Moreover, Rodgers hasn’t thrown a single pick at Lambeau in over two calendar years. TWO!  So why am I harping on the interior run game? Simple, Rodger’s calf.  Rodgers will play on Sunday for sure.  He may even be 95%, maybe 100% even.  But the Packers aren’t about to take any chances in the cold.  Rodgers is going to likely be extremely conservative with scrambles and rollouts and will likely play much of the game from the pistol or shotgun. So how do you defend a non-mobile QB?  Well you block well for starters and Green Bay has the No. 1 pass blocking unit. ... [More]

Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 08:13 PM

2H Overs?

Do these teams slow down at all? Thoughts on the 2H's here guys?

Posted Friday, March 21, 2014 02:10 PM

TENN/UMASS Line Movement & Pick Discussion

Opened at -4, now at -6 and -6.5 in some places.

Anyone local in Vegas know what the line is at MGM?

With so much movement, is TENN still the play (I had a heavy lean on them earlier). Who does everyone have?

Input/discussion welcomed.

Posted Monday, November 04, 2013 06:17 PM

Lang and FF on PACKERS. Go Bears!

"Lang and FF on PACKERS. Time to load up on DA BEARS!"

Just saw this tweet, made the fades of these 2 awesome people be with us all.

Posted Thursday, August 08, 2013 03:20 PM

19 wins to go for $10,000 - GO TWINS

Dropped my entire bankroll on a future this year and have not bet a single MLB game all season. It's now crunch time.

Let the countdown begin.....

Twins Over 67.5 - 135

51 games left. I need 19 to be the happiest guy on these forums (and to have a bankroll for football haha)

Yes, this is a real bet. If you come to bash or trash, leave. I need all the positive energy a man could get right now.

Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 07:39 PM

Twins O/U 67.5 thoughts

Ahead of schedule at this point to reach the over (not sure how). Just wanted to see what everyone thought of this season win total and what your final Twins season outcome will be. Thanks for the input.

Posted Tuesday, April 02, 2013 07:28 PM

BASES 2k13


Tex-180 2.5 units
Tex/Hou U8-120 2.5 units

Posted Thursday, March 28, 2013 04:43 PM

Rangers O/U 87.5 Total wins Discussion

Want to get this out on the table and see what everyone's thoughts were.

Basic public opinion will have the Rangers "down" this season, but how down?

I think they have the best pitching in the division, you add in a lowly opponent in HOU (More free wins), there is still great offensive production potential, and one of the best infields in the game.

This years w/l total is about 6-7 games less than it was last year. Also, if my memory serves me right, the Rangers have covered this bet the past 3 seasons, and I think there is some great value for them to do it again here.

ALSO, I look for them to go after some good pitching at the break which will help them down the stretch. (They have the $$$ and resources)

What's everyone thinking about this team/division/wins this year?

Posted Monday, January 21, 2013 10:04 PM

+53 units in Playoffs (11-3) | Super Bowl Pick Play Inside

(10-3) Sides/Totals
(1-0) Teaser

+53 Units 

Not a bad run here for me. A few key penalties in the SF/ATL game cost me my under. 

My other losses were the Hou/NE Side and total (Just bad reads there)

Moving on....

Baltimore +4 (-110) 10 units

...may add some more of my winnings on top of this. Lined dropped to 3.5 after I put my play in, so...gonna wait on some action to move it back up (which I think it will finalize at 4)

Best of luck gentlemen. 

Posted Sunday, January 20, 2013 06:25 AM

8-2 in playoffs | Dogs will bark! | Break even or gonna hit em' HARD

(8-2) in the postseason thus far. 

Now time to up the ante and play with house $$$$.

+33 units 

ATL +4.5 (-120) 10 units
ATL/SF Under (-110) 10 units
RAY LEWIS FAREWELL TOUR +8 (-110) 10 units
3 unit teaser (ATL +14.5 ATL/SF Under 59 Baltimore + 18) 3 units (3.6 to win 3)

BOL everyone 

Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 03:20 PM

Shooting for a PERFECT 10-0 in the playoffs after today!!!!!! (7-0 w/ 8 about to cash)

On a very, very solid run.

My thread was bumped that I started, can't find it anymore. Refer here:

8-0 when Falcons game finishes.

Texans & Under to round out the day!!!

Posted Monday, January 07, 2013 05:41 PM

MIDDLE OPPORTUNITY on ALA/ND - Needs thoughts/advice

Already locked in on Bama -6.5, book now has it at -9...Think I may can grab ND +10 before game time.

Thoughts/concerns on a middle opportunity here gents? Ty for your feedback.

Posted Saturday, January 05, 2013 04:39 PM

CoJo's Playoffs

Hou -3 (-140) (bought point) 10 units
Hou ML 1st Half (-180) 3.5 units
Hou/Cin Under 44 (-130) 4.5 units
GB - 7 (bought 1/2 point) (-120) 5 units

Posted Thursday, December 13, 2012 04:30 PM

Before you lay $$ on the Cowboys/Steelers (MUST READ)

Again, I am a season ticket holder, get my rep to send me the "White Papers" on the game for every game. Great information, may help in your read.


Posted Thursday, December 13, 2012 03:19 PM


The landing of Josh Hamilton is going to drastically over inflate this value and price here for the Angels. UNDER allllll day baby!

The only thing worse about being a lifetime Ranger fan is we lost to both LA teams in the offseason. 

Thank god I can get a free $$ outta this. 

Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 03:15 AM

COWBOYS/BUCS Game Notes "White Papers"

Haven't been around in a while, having bet in that same period too...Moved from Texas to Hawaii. Blah blah, anyways...I posted these last year. 

I am a season ticket holder of the Cowboys, and I receive these every week from the team. It's a great read, and may lead you to a more informed betting decision on their games.


Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 06:57 PM

MIA ML (-170) or IND +8 (-180)

If you had to lay all of this chalk, which would you lean...and why? Just a good hypothetical that should get some discussion going.

I'd take the 8 in a heart beat.

Posted Friday, December 23, 2011 12:47 PM

Need Hedge expert's (possibly DoubleUp4Life's) advice and take on this

I haven't really played much NFL b/c I put all my eggs into 1 basket this season. Now I am sweating bullets.I have 2 chances to limit my loss with the Bills playing DEN and NE the next 2 weeks. I know that the NE line will be over-inflated and the Bills will be undervalued (with what little value they still have) - so this Saturday may be my only chance to help cut my losses.  Below is some very simple scenarios that I have drawn up, If ANYONE has any advice on a better route to take, please take a few moments to outline your path.

BILLS over 5.5 wins -120
Risked 2,400 to win 2,000

Scenerio 1

-2400 = -2400 (Let it ride and Bills don't win 1 of next 2 games)

Scenerio 2

-2400 + 2000 = -400 (Bills under 5.5 wins and Broncos ML win)
+2000 - 2900 = -900 (Bills over 5.5 wins and Broncos ML Loss)

Scenario 3

Hell freezes over and the Bills win - which will take me having balls of still to have confidence in them at this point, which I don't

Posted Sunday, November 27, 2011 03:15 PM


Let's get some good dialog flowing on this game y'all. I have been intrigued by this game all weak with a HEAVY lean on Seattle.

I closely watched the Skins/Boys game last week and it was a very physical game. The Skins definately had to "get up" for the divisional game and are no doubt deflated after knowing they could have beaten their long hated rival. With this motivational angle, mixed with the well known cross-country mixed with Seattle's known home field craziness..I can't get off pulling the trigger with them at -3 +100 locally here. Below is more info for the case for the Seahawks...Again, I welcome Skins backers to explain to me why they are laying their money on them.

  • Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC

Posted Saturday, November 26, 2011 09:36 PM

Stanford 2h discussion

I'm guessing it may be Stanford -3 or possibly a pk for the 2H - from watching the game, I don't see how ND can hang...I really thing Stanford rolls. What do you all think?

Posted Saturday, November 26, 2011 01:02 PM

Big line movement in Duke vs NC - anyone know why?

Watched it jump from 11 to 13 in a few minutes on many books - anyone have a read or info on this game?

Posted Saturday, November 19, 2011 11:42 AM

HOW is TEXAS a favorite today? Open Discussion - Please post

I live here in Austin, followed the team all yet and yet to place a wager on them. I look at all the "square" numbers on the game and see this as an outright K-State win, especially with our injuries and lack of run game which is key to take the pressure off our no-so-talented QB's at the moment. Please shed some light and your thoughts on this game.

Posted Thursday, September 29, 2011 05:28 PM

Where is fade friend thread?

Always funny, and profitable - DONDE ESTA MIS AMIGO?

Posted Thursday, September 29, 2011 04:41 PM

MLB Series Futures Discussion

Tampa Bay Series
Texas Series

Posted Thursday, September 29, 2011 12:59 PM

Your welcome - Anyone betting Dallas/Lions MUST read this

I am a season ticket holder for the Boys - and I get these press releases every week. It's a great read either way you look at it, may help you in your betting decision. These are the official game notes (also known as the white papers) for the game. Enjoy Covers brothers!

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