atxcojo's Blog

DO NOT BET ON THE SUPER BOWL WITHOUT READIN THIS(Fact vs fiction)

By atxcojo | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, February 07, 2010 03:31 PM   24 comments
In terms of teams which made the playoffs, the Colts and Saints had three common opponents. They both beat up on the Cardinals. They also both beat the Jets by roughly the same number of points - the Colts also lost to the Jets but that can't really be counted as it was 'meaningless' and Mannning and the starters got pulled. There was a big difference in their games vs. New England though. The Colts barely beat the Patriots, winning by a single point. Meanwhile, the Saints pounded the Patriots by a score of 38-17.

Advantage: SAINTS


Below is the ACCUSCORE DLR:

ROT101102
TEAM PS UNITS YTD OU UNITS YTD SIM WIN % VEGAS LINE OPEN VEGAS LINE MIDWEEK VEGAS LINE SIM LINE PREDICTION
NO -500 -500 46.3% 55.5 56.5 56.5 56 UNDER
IND 20 -290 53.7% -4.5 -5.5 -4.5 -3 NO



Advantage: SAINTS

I also take into account some of the respected Covers Community picks....The best cappers we have here on this site are majorly in favor of the Saints and the points. With that said.....


Report Abuse
 
24 comments
comment Post A Comment
atxcojo says:
02/07/10 03:31PM
  • In 34 of the 40 (85%) previous

    Super Bowls, all you had to do to win your bet was pick the Super Bowl

    winner --- Forget the spread. It’s irrelevant. Now there's a

    trend worth writing about.

I know there have been 43 Super Bowl

games (not 40), but three ended up in point spread ties and therefore,

have nothing to do with this discussion.

In 34 of the Super Bowls, where there

has been a point spread winner, the favorites have covered 24 times. In

ten games, the underdogs not only covered but won straight up, needing no

help from the spread. That's what you call a pattern!

BadBear72 says:
02/07/10 03:33PM
NIce
atxcojo says:
02/07/10 03:33PM
I do not take credit for all the information in these paragraphs, but it may help you in your decision. Here are my plays

-1


NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[101] NEW ORLEANS +6-120 (B+½)

2400 /

2000

-1


NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[102] TOTAL u59½-130 (B+1)
(NEW ORLEANS vrs INDIANAPOLIS)

2600 /

2000

Feb 07 05:25 PM

-1


NFL
NFL
2T TEASER
[101] NEW ORLEANS +12-110 (B+7)
[102] TOTAL u62½-110 (B+4)
(NEW ORLEANS vrs INDIANAPOLIS)

2800 /

2000

Feb 07 05:25 PM

-1


NFL
NFL
PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[101] NEW ORLEANS +6-130 (B+1)
[102] TOTAL u59-130 (B+1)
(NEW ORLEANS vrs INDIANAPOLIS)

2000 /

4178


atxcojo says:
02/07/10 03:34PM
The VALUE is WITH NO...Take the smarter and more educated bet IMO.

-1


NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[101] NEW ORLEANS +6-120 (B+½)

2400 /

2000

-1


NFL
STRAIGHT BET
[102] TOTAL u59½-130 (B+1)
(NEW ORLEANS vrs INDIANAPOLIS)

2600 /

2000

Feb 07 05:25 PM

-1


NFL
NFL
2T TEASER
[101] NEW ORLEANS +12-110 (B+7)
[102] TOTAL u62½-110 (B+4)
(NEW ORLEANS vrs INDIANAPOLIS)

2800 /

2000

Feb 07 05:25 PM

-1


NFL
NFL
PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[101] NEW ORLEANS +6-130 (B+1)
[102] TOTAL u59-130 (B+1)
(NEW ORLEANS vrs INDIANAPOLIS)

2000 /

4178


MDAAKD says:
02/07/10 03:36PM
BOL man, but I don't agree with your logic. 
Qb4011 says:
02/07/10 03:36PM
with what you just said why tease the saints, why not take ml
misfit_aka says:
02/07/10 03:37PM
No, this is like a home game for colts, another SB same staduim...they cover the -4.5 I got em at...points however is different...i went over on 56 becuase its  more like they each avg a TD score a qtr.
atxcojo says:
02/07/10 03:38PM
Simple for me: Probabilities

I majored in economics with an emphasis on statistics and econometrics...so I naturally make many of my decisions based on them. With all of my bets I am clearing a 74% probability that I will win...I'll take those numbers all day.
fel2718 says:
02/07/10 03:50PM
What about the Colts beating the Rams 42-6 and the Saints almost losing to them?
vincenzococotti says:
02/07/10 03:52PM

this is in running for dumbest post of day>>>regardless of the outcome....they played there how many years ago...they have played at every other stadium as much in the last 4 years...not to menton they are playing a southern team in the south....if u want to say its an experience thing then fine please say that..but calling it a home game cause they played a superbowl there a few years ago is silly....

BigNiner says:
02/07/10 03:59PM

I was just going to ask the same thing

fel2718 says:
02/07/10 04:08PM


Not to mention the Colts/Pats is one of the biggest rivalry games in the NFL, probably the biggest rivalry of the past decade.  A rivalry game is always much closer and a much tougher opponent.  Especially since the Saint rarely played the Patriots and the Colts do at least once a year.

You play different teams at different times and there going to be up and down.  Sanchez had won 2 playoff games and was coming in hot so I think the Colts had the Jets at a much tougher time.

Come to think about it they also both played the Dolphins and the Colts beat them without a defense basically.  Manning had the ball for 15 minutes and dominated that game.  I don't know if you just went off the top of your head or not but they've had 5 games against the same team if you don't count the Jets game where the Colts pulled their starters. 


gametime2008 says:
02/07/10 04:12PM
so what is the play?

atxcojo says:
02/07/10 04:21PM


From their comments they are obviously on the Colts...BOL guys
2EAEBB4088AB42B98C789E04843CC80E says:
02/07/10 04:29PM
Thank you for all the info  guys  from what I just read  glad I am on the  Colts.  somebody must think they are going to win or the line would  have ended at 2 or something.   gl  
fel2718 says:
02/07/10 04:30PM


Nope, didn't bet the game..just a Colts homer
nbafan88 says:
02/07/10 04:35PM
its the fucking superbowl.. this is not a regular game
BigNiner says:
02/07/10 04:44PM

I actually don't even know if I am betting the game. If I do I will most likely be on the Saints.

The whole point is you are begging people to read your information and you don't even have accurate info.

Can you at least admit that instead of deflecting the fact that you did not do your homework properly?

norseman67 says:
02/07/10 05:02PM
That rationale never works and you know it.
shark_apreza says:
02/07/10 05:05PM


NOT TO MENTION .. THAT THE SAINTS DIDNT FACE  ANY TOUGHT DEFENSE IN THE PLAY OFFS ..  THE CARDS AND VIKES .....OMG  ....  didnt  u see the cards-gb game ..   it was a shoot out none of them had defense at all .... the vikes  rolled over dallas ..wich of the NFC play off teams had the toughest defense .. shall i remind u they kicked saints ass in their dome.... that being said ..... the saints didnt face a defensive line that pushed drew to the limit and they almos lost to the vikes ... in the other hand ...  the colts faced the toughest defenses in the league .. and delivered ... and not oly that ...  the colts are known for their ground defense to stink ... and  they were able to  keep the strongests ground attacks in the play offs scoreless in 2nd half .... so .....  what u have to say about that .... saints defense its way below that of ravens and jets and its ground attack as well .... manning will feast on saints secondary and the colts ofenssive line will finally have a  walk in the park ..... not to mention ...  colts defensive line will have drew brees runing for his life
pjlvio says:
02/07/10 05:37PM
Hey sharks albiet jaws are you telling all of us that Indy has a good defense? You have to be kidding right...
pjlvio says:
02/07/10 05:42PM
My money is on the Saints plus the points and the moneyline. One man Manning does not make a team, Saints have to many weapons for Manning to keep up with and both defenses are suspect with an edge to neither.
pjlvio says:
02/07/10 10:10PM
I was with you all the way, had your bets doubled with my books, a really nice day. Great write up...
atxcojo says:
02/08/10 12:48AM


I'll take a nice 10k any day... it was the biggest betting day of my 3 year capping career. The stars aligned and I hit my first parlay of the entire season.....Now back to the grind....I may try and get with Estes on his MLB

Great season everyone!!!!
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: atxcojo
Joined: September 2007
Location: Texas
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Occupation: Student

Recent Posts

Archive

open2012
open2011
open2010
open2009

Categories

Advertisement