atxcojo's Blog

Your welcome - Anyone betting Dallas/Lions MUST read this

By atxcojo | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, September 29, 2011 12:59 PM   10 comments
I am a season ticket holder for the Boys - and I get these press releases every week. It's a great read either way you look at it, may help you in your betting decision. These are the official game notes (also known as the white papers) for the game. Enjoy Covers brothers!

http://bit.ly/pr5rpp
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atxcojo says:
09/29/11 01:00PM
Whoops, forgot to link it

http://bit.ly/pr5rpp
atxcojo says:
09/29/11 01:20PM
You may want to print this out and put it in the bathroom lol, I just realized it's 27 pages of Cowboy information. I'll see if I can't continue to post these for you all.

My lean is on the Boys for a few reasons:

  • Det is possibly over-valued after facing 3 horrible teams (Bucs / Vikes / KC)
  • Cowboys are just getting a home-field advantage of a line in -3 (after no offensive TD's - this will change)
  • Dallas owns Detroit over the past decade (who hasn't) - and I still think they have the better personnel to do so again on Sunday
I have yet to make a wager on the Boys this season, and I think this may be the time to do so. This is still just a lean for me. BOL everyone
smartbets says:
09/29/11 01:25PM
good points, but this is not the same detroit team as before.
atxcojo says:
09/29/11 01:41PM
No team is ever the same - if this were true handicapping would be such a easy task. I guarantee that Rob Ryan will be dialed in for this game against a Det team that he knows can put up points, he will have the Cowboys D ready. This is the hardest test yet for a young and talented Det squad.

As for questions about injuries and the communication problems with the center/Romo in the past game -->

The Cowboys have gone on record to the NFL for them to review tape about someone on the Skins that was faking Romo's cadence (this happens quite a bit as I understand it) - but this threw off the young center *This will be corrected

Romo should be back to above 90% healthy for the game - and I won't expect any issues there
Miles should be back and ready to go

In the 23 games of the series there has been:
* 11 games decided by double-digits
* Eight games decided by three-or-more touchdowns
* Ten games decided by less than a touchdown
* A six-game winning streak by Dallas


Stats YTD show that DET should DOMINATE the Boys on paper
                                                          Cowboys          Lions
Record ................................................2-1 3-0
Scoring Avg. (NFL rank) ..........................23.0 (13) 33.7 (4)
Opp. Scoring Avg. (NFL rank) ................22.3 (16t) 15.3 (3)
Total Off. (NFL rank) ..............................412.3 (5) 400.0 (10)
Rushing Off. (NFL rank) ..........................78.0 (27) 78.3 (26)
Passing Off. (NFL rank) ........................334.3 (3) 321.7 (4t)
Total Def. (NFL rank) ..............................288.0 (5) 301.0 (6)
Rushing Def. (NFL rank) ..........................61.3 (2) 113.0 (21)
Passing Def. (NFL rank) ........................226.7 (12) 188.0 (4)
Kickoff Return Avg. ..................................18.7 (29) 19.0 (28)
Punt Return Avg. ........................................8.6 (19) 7.8 (22)
Turnover Margin............................................-2 (20t) +6 (1t)
Penalties ......................................................21 19
Penalty yards ............................................178 168
Opp. Penalties................................................9 24
Opp. Penalty yards..................................60 188

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The over may be the play here:
  • Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

  • Over is 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 home games.

  • Over is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 games as a favorite.

  • Over is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games as a home favorite.

  • Over is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games following a ATS loss.

  • Over is 11-2 in Cowboys last 13 vs. NFC.

  • Over is 16-5 in Cowboys last 21 games overall.



All of this again is still just a lean for me - I'll know more by Fri/Sat to decide if I want to put some of my hard earned money on America's Team. As always, BOL everyone.
Kgdetroit says:
09/29/11 03:56PM
"This is the hardest test yet for a young and talented Det squad."

This is also the hardest test for a Dallas defense still adjusting to a new scheme and coordinator. It works both ways. 

Disclaimer: I'm a total Lions homer. 

I'll be on the Lions. Everyone cites their opponent's combined record but 3 of those losses came at the hands of the Lions, so that 2-7 number is a bit skewed. 

People say the Lions will have a let down this week looking ahead to the Bears. I disagree, last week was their let down game.

All that being said, should be a close game. Dallas could easily be 3-0 and their offense simply cannot look as lost as it did on Monday Night. I'm expecting a high scoring affair and the covering machine that is the Lions to come through getting points. 

GL   

 
atxcojo says:
09/29/11 04:35PM


aaustinova67 says:
09/29/11 04:39PM

ROMO IS PLAYING HIS HEART OUT.

DALLAS WINS

END OF DISCUSSION

ChOdaZ says:
09/29/11 04:44PM

First point:  Beating the Bucs in Tamps on opening weekend is a quality win and should not be discounted.  They molested KC at home as they should of, game was never close so nothing to take away.  A win on the road in the division is always a quality win no matter how horrible the Vikes are.

Third Point: At worst the talent level is equal. Stafford, Su, Best, Johnson, and Pettigrew are all superstars.  

Cowboys secondary is very shaky.  Who is going to guard Calvin Johnson and Pettigrew?  
_keyser_soze_ says:
09/29/11 05:53PM

If Pettigrew is a superstar - I guess Witten is simply out of this world and universe.  To compare the two at this point and state that Petti is in Witten's class is ... laughable.


atxcojo says:
09/30/11 10:52AM
Pulling the trigger on Dallas ML -140 (I get f'd here locally in TX, but it's the right play)

This will be the right side - BOL everyone, hope you use the info either way you choose.

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