axpiota59's Blog

Posted Thursday, August 20, 2009 04:20 AM

That was quick

seems like only yesterday we were wrapping up the NBA playoffs with a crazy run.  get that prep work done so we can have another profitable season.  looking to play more sides this year.  just wanted to touch base with some friends since i've been traveling most of the summer and making loose change on MLB.  looking forward to killing the books again this NBA season.


Posted Tuesday, March 17, 2009 05:31 PM

My friends and fellow cappers



Posted Sunday, March 15, 2009 10:00 PM

NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

Back to work Monday.  No number set for this game yet but I have a very viable buy-in number @193.  This is a very realistic number that the books could release.  I'm thinking even a higher published number.  Give it to me and I will buy the under @ 193+

Portland at Memphis 


Posted Saturday, March 14, 2009 12:07 PM

NBA SUN 031509 early thoughts - value hunting

The Ides of March is upon us and Sunday is a perfect day to celebrate the roots of our passion tracing back to the times when real warriors battled to their deaths at The Colosseum.  We no longer wager goats and other livestock on the outcome of death matches but we carry on the tradition proudly.  On this day 2053 years ago, the mighty Caesar met his fate.  Today, we have come a long way from the men of steel drawing blood to men in shorts bouncing a ball and attempting to place it through a cylindrical piece of iron.

With that...I'm pre-capping Sundays games since Saturday's board looks like crap.  I have a buy-in number I want to run by some of you cappers out there.  Any chance Indiana at Toronto opens @218?  

11 games on the board tomorrow and I'll update this as I think there may be some value for us.



Posted Thursday, March 12, 2009 05:27 PM

Totals



Posted Tuesday, March 10, 2009 10:20 PM

NBA WED 031109 early thoughts - value hunting

My friend Turc is on to something and I shall not steal his thunder...I respect the man's capping abilities so I will let him publish his POD under for WED.  I love his play...

for me...I have strong early leans on these unders

New York at Detroit U207
New Orleans at Washington U194

I may lock one tonight...I'll post if I do...

thoughts...


Posted Monday, March 09, 2009 10:20 PM

NBA TUE 031009 early thoughts - value hunting

YTD (not sure)...you can always look it up if you really want to know.

oh boy, oh boy...I'm getting ready to be flamed all day with my potential POD...Let me dig around some more but it looks like the best value on the board is gonna get me in hot water...

be back in a bit...throw 'em out there if you got em...


Posted Sunday, March 08, 2009 10:44 PM

This is only a test



Posted Sunday, March 08, 2009 07:44 PM

NBA MON 030909 early thoughts - value hunting

First game on the board looks very good.

New Orleans at Atlanta...189

this is like the slot machines near the entrances of the casinos.  It's programmed to pay out and draw you in deeper into the VOID.  first game on a monday just to get you hooked for the rest of the week.

The thing is...this is actually good value @189...I'm still shopping


Posted Saturday, March 07, 2009 08:21 PM

NBA SUN 030809 early thoughts - value hunting (5-31)

just posted this as a carry over...PHO/SAS 220

This thing is so OFF.  The public is so crazy with PHO and their new "old style" run and gun, no defense. 

...did you know that since 1995...no SAS has ever had a total of 220+

O/U is 3-13 when the total is 210+
throw in that SAS is at home O/U 1-7-1 when total is 210+

I see in some books that it's 220.  this is like a broke alcoholic waking up with a full bottle of vodka in his hands...


Posted Saturday, March 07, 2009 12:58 AM

NBA SAT 030709 early thoughts - value hunting

Sorry in advance, I may not be as interactive if at all the next few days...I'm only doing this because I'm a superstitious capper and strongly believe that you DO NOT stop during a HOT streak. Plus I like the money.

Detroit at Atlanta @minimum value..no real indication which way the line is going but I'm liking the under.


Posted Friday, March 06, 2009 12:48 AM

NBA FRI 030609 early thoughts - value hunting

63-31 




What's in the bargain bin for this Friday evening?

SALE ... Milwaukee at Chicago ... SALE


Posted Wednesday, March 04, 2009 09:57 PM

NBA Thursday - Value Hunting

Is it Christmas???  I thought for sure that with only 2 games on the board, there wouldn't be much to go on BUT..

Portland at Denver @198...Not jumping on it yet but damn...

I'm not in a good mood right now...just got back from taking care of the dreaded W-2G...and life is not good...




Posted Wednesday, March 04, 2009 12:04 AM

NBA WED - Value Hunting

Call me crazy but I'm going to share this early.  Chump, you're a CLE guy, what say you?  I jumped all over this.

Milwaukee at Cleveland U197

I feel like I should stop capping the other games since I only make one play a day but...could be more value on the board...


Posted Monday, March 02, 2009 11:09 PM

NBA TUE 030309 early thoughts - value hunting

YTD (60-31)

Line isn't out on Denver at Detroit yet but this is the matchup I have my eye on.  I'm hoping Vegas throws us a bone here since the rest of the board isn't presenting much value.  

I'll be watching the Memphis at L.A. Lakers line movement overnight.  It's a stretch but like I said, there isn't much O/U value on the board.  Worst case...I'll take the day off.




Posted Monday, March 02, 2009 12:53 AM

NBA MON 030209 early thoughts - value hunting

These numbers look very attractive.  No cap notes yet.

Atlanta at Washington U199 (possible POD)
Cleveland at Miami U186.5


no line on this one yet but I like it @192

San Antonio at L.A. Clippers U


Posted Thursday, February 19, 2009 09:34 PM

NBA FRI 022009 early thoughts - value hunting

My oh my...Where did this number come from?

[868] TOTAL u233-110 
(OKLAHOMA CITY vrs PHOENIX)





Posted Thursday, February 19, 2009 02:18 AM

NBA THU 021909 early thoughts - value hunting

58--26 YTD...that's a lot of  
2 games with no lines yet but I already know from the totals angle that we're going to get nothing but crap from Vegas.  Hey, let's hope I'm wrong and we end up getting some value.  What to do, what to do?
Since I'm a C's homer, I started capping their game first. Here's what I got until I stopped because I realized there isn't going to be any value no matter what spin I put on this game.
BOS@UTA
if total is less than or equal to 195
Over is 6-1 last 7 between these 2 in UTA
195-200
Over is 1-0
Greater than or equal to 200
Over is 2-2 BUT......UTA is 4-0 SU and ATS


this season 
UTA is perfect home dog 1-0 SU and ATS
UTA vs ELITE (.700+) teams Over is 5-2......2-0 when total is 200+
BOS vs .500+ teams as road favs 5-1 SU 4-2 ATS O/U 0-6

STOP...
There is an angle for some though...I think this is a perfect time to fade my beloved C's and chase the fade the next 4 games.  UTA as a home dog has a little value.  I don't play the chase but I know some people do.  There's a nice b2b situation on the 22nd and the 23rd where DEN catches them on the tail end.  This is by no means a recommendation.  I'm just throwing this out there.  If I were to chase anything, which I won't, I'd chase the under starting with UTA.
I looked at SA/DET...another home dog situation where there isn't going to be any value in the total.  
First I was disappointed but hell, it looks like a day off.   Friday is sure t... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2009 12:33 PM

NBA WED 021109 early thoughts - value hunting

Hey all...still under the weather but I ran into a nice trend so I'll share.  Please don't ask me for picks...I feel like crap but I'll manage to post my POD later in WBA's thread.

O/U: 13-3-1 (7-0-1 last 8)

This season on a WED where there's a home dog and the total is over 200.

BTW- that home dog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10

I'll share more as I find them.

GL



Posted Saturday, February 07, 2009 10:08 PM

NBA SUN 020809 early thoughts - value hunting

saw this and jumped on it.

[806] TOTAL u211-110 
(NEW YORK vrs PORTLAND)


I have a few more but I want to go line shopping...


Posted Saturday, February 07, 2009 12:24 AM

NBA SAT 020709 early thoughts - value hunting

saw this and jumped on it.  

[504] TOTAL u193½-110 
(MIAMI vrs PHILADELPHIA)


We'll see what the board looks like in the morning when all the numbers are out.

The lines are starting to tighten up on me.  I've been collecting 2H data and been playing for a few weeks now.  I've posted some 2H plays the past few days and the results have been positive.  I've actually made more money on 2H plays the past 2 weeks.  I'm going to play this by ear and won't force anything.  I can't wait for baseball!!  Good luck everyone.


Posted Friday, February 06, 2009 11:20 AM

NBA FRI 020609 early thoughts - value hunting - posted POD (52-24)

Here's what I'm capping today:

[851] ATLANTA +2-110

[853] ORLANDO -6½-110

[858] MEMPHIS -5-110

[864] NEW ORLEANS -4½-110

[862] TOTAL u205½-110 
(DENVER vrs WASHINGTON)

There's value on the board...just have to go shopping.  GLTA


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