axpiota59's Blog

NBA FRI 020609 early thoughts - value hunting - posted POD (52-24)

By axpiota59 | View all Posts
Posted Friday, February 06, 2009 11:20 AM   39 comments
Here's what I'm capping today:

[851] ATLANTA +2-110

[853] ORLANDO -6½-110

[858] MEMPHIS -5-110

[864] NEW ORLEANS -4½-110

[862] TOTAL u205½-110 
(DENVER vrs WASHINGTON)

There's value on the board...just have to go shopping.  GLTA
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Fathomable says:
02/06/09 11:23AM
atl huh? was teetering on char. prob wont play it. no denver? whatcha think bout the memphis under ax? gl bro
jlippens says:
02/06/09 11:27AM
Axp:  you don't like Clips +5 with Davis having some games to have figured it out and Randolph back in the lineup? I've actually put money down on the Clips. I'm not saying it's a good bet, but Memphis -5 looks like a tomb.
ThePatriot says:
02/06/09 11:28AM
i had the same picks but not sure about the LAC vs MEM game. BOL brother
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 11:41AM

Man, I'm thinking of making ATL my POD.  I've got to do some more capping first.  This is strickly a value around the number thing for me.  I like (not love) the MEM under.  I'm going to wait for the lines to settle and decide if I'm going to make a run at it.  Bro, I posted my thoughts on DEN in your thread.  GL as always man.
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 11:47AM

jlip...not hating on the Clips...it's a Friday night home game thing for me.  I tend to cap differently on certain days.  i'm thinking MEM just shows up to play tonight.  they are 4-1 ats at home on friday night where the total is over 190.  so when the books expect them to trade baskets...they cover.  playing that angle tonight.  GL with your card tonight 
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 11:49AM

Sup pal?  man, for two real crappy teams, they generate a lot of attention.  GL bro. 
therealdjlaura says:
02/06/09 12:46PM
Looks good to me.

JLZone says:
02/06/09 01:05PM
Hey Ax, good to see your value plays early, im still researching too many games tonight that I need to be careful on controlling my emotions of betting on tonights games; I like your picks except with orlando, but still searching for clues on that game, when you have a strong total post it men! I will be waiting for your total of the night. G.Luck
chump says:
02/06/09 01:06PM
AX ... big night last night for me ... ( 6-0 ) ... I was looking for Boston to win ( for you ) in OT but it won't meant to be !!!

 

You should now realize that the Celtics are # 3 in the East ... Cleveland will be soo tough in the post-season with a healthy WEST ... and Orlando will get the bounce back in their step when NELSON gets back ... Boston had their fun-in-the-sun last year -- it's over now !!!

 

Baseball season right around the corner ( my best $$$ sport ) ... I see it being a long season for your Sox ... soo sad !!!

 

The under tonight in the Denver / Washington games looks good but Denver minus the 6 1/2 looks better ... GOOD LUCK with whom ever you pick !!! 

mpnyc76 says:
02/06/09 01:10PM

No way the Celts are #3 - they are the champs, Chump and are number 1 until proven otherwise.  don't read too much into the reg season especially with a defending champion - we all know the playoffs is a totally different season - and this is coming from a Lakers' fan.

6-0 last night?  why don't you post all of your plays?

axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 01:24PM

thanks dj.  GL man  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 01:27PM

Man, you are killing that POD.  Keep it hot!  the board is loaded with value tonight.  Didn't expect it but not complaining.  Let me do some more detailed capping and I'll get a total up if the numbers are right.  Good luck man...as if you need it right now.  
Forty7 says:
02/06/09 01:27PM
I think the Clips are on the verge of being back so getting this many points seems a value.  I like that neither of these guys defends it is Friday i love the OVER....
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 01:35PM

Chump, thanks for the support my friend.  it was a very small homer play but I cared more about them just winnning.

Oh man, I can't quite agree with you on your Boston analysis.  I think the East going to be tighter than last year but I'm feeling confident about Boston.  That team can win anywhere.

Hey, I'm glad to hear that baseball is your $$$ sport because it's mine also.  This is going to be interesting season.  I hope you'll be posting for baseball.  looking forward to your insght.

That denver line moved to -7 and I think it lost it's value there.  I'm going to look at some other games of course but as always...BOL2U.

BTW...you killed your book last night...You buying a new car??  Take care pal.  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 01:41PM

forty7, i'm curious to know what you have this game capped at.  I like the fact that you cap around a number to find value.  a better bet might be the 2nd half after watching the 1st.  GL with your card tonight 
t20boss says:
02/06/09 01:53PM
Ax - Both CP3 and Bosh out for NO/Tor game, and the line has moved down to 3 - curious what your angle on NO is ?

 

Den/Wash - Agree w/Chump, Den should roll tonite, but I like the under as Wash will be lucky to get to 90 pts.

t20boss says:
02/06/09 02:05PM
Tonight would be the night to play your beloved C's - Even tho the line is at 7, and Boston just played last night, Knicks will be playing LAL, Clev and Boston all in one week. C's will be pissed at losing to LAL last night, and should roll at the Garden against my Knicks. Any homer action for you ?
chump says:
02/06/09 02:26PM

Five of my 6 wins were in college basketball ... I don't want to "muddle-up" Ax's thread ... he's not into the NCAA ... I probably should not of even mentioned my 6-0 night but it was my best of the season ... good luck to your Lakers -- tough tough !!! 

axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 02:29PM

My 1st angle is that with both of these guys out...it's a push.
2nd...Friday night home game for NO..they are 3-1 SU (by 9.2)...I look at this as a SU situation because the line is NOW one possession (<=3)
3rd...need to win 
4th...Raptors on the road on Friday LWLWLW..next up L (crazy trending LOL)

I must admit there are trends that favor TOR also...therefore I go to stats.  again, both stars out is a push.  all statistical indicators minus the stars point to a victory by NO.

trends=even
stats=NOH
situational=NOH

and yes...I think I'm going to do with the DEN/WAS under.  GL pal
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 02:31PM

GL with your play Buzz...my god, these two teams are pathetic.  Well, they're on the board so we gotta cap 'em.  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 02:34PM

Yes t20, there will be some homer action for me on the under.  when the c's need a win, it's their D that tightens up.  I didn't post this because there's so much other value on the board and didn't want to give people the wrong idea.  1/20 unit play on the under.
JLZone says:
02/06/09 03:08PM


Thanks for being polite sir, but honestly everybody can have a great run, the important is to be consistent, thats why I think that you are the one that is killing the board with your 52-24; thats my idea but I just post over 20 picks...need at least 50 to prove that the record wasnt just a lucky run... so its a long way to go, have you post your POD ? Im amost ready for mine
jmarkog says:
02/06/09 03:21PM
Mostly i like Utah and Orlando...good luck with your choices
chump says:
02/06/09 03:25PM

What in the world are you trying to say ... AX is a "model of consistency"  ... his 52-24 sets the bar ... very few ( if any ) will be at 68 % after 70 + plays !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

chump says:
02/06/09 03:30PM
AX ... just reviewed all your possible plays and and see the under in the Denver / Washington game as the best play for the evening ... regardless - I'm out the door on my way to a poker tournament in up-State Michigan for the evening ... good luck tonight to you and to all in tonight's games !!! 
JLZone says:
02/06/09 03:40PM


Thats exactly what I trying to say Chump, sorry my english sucks, I said that Ax is one of the few with that consistency, and I would like to have that kind of record after 50 plays, by the way you are also doing great . Not saying something bad about you Ax, is my poor english
UnkleSam says:
02/06/09 04:03PM
Nice calls yesterday AX, though it took a lucky OT in the Celts game to make it work. Sorry for the homer loss, damn refs were killin your boys. Have heard that many whistles blown since biddy basketball.

 

 on your plays. My lean is the under as well and Denver -7 (Wiz just do not match up well for this game at all, and a few of their players look to be hurt)...but I know little.

UnkleSam says:
02/06/09 04:39PM
Ax, meant to ask you...do you see any value with the Jazz at -2.5. I know the Jazz are weak on the road, but do the Kings really pose that much of a threat? Does the b2b play into this that much?

thanks for any advice

axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 05:12PM

Thanks JLZ.  A bit sluggish today.  still battling the flu...and thankyou for the kind words.  I'll be posting soon enough.  BOL on your card tonight.  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 05:12PM

Thank you sir and to you as well.  
GotRice88 says:
02/06/09 06:05PM
hey ax been following you, one of the greatest cappers on here!! So what u liking tonight bro??
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 06:39PM

Thanks for giving my opinion a consideration.  Whyt...man, GL with ATL...I don't list those in order of preference...that's just the way they are listed on the board as I start picking games to cap.  With that said, all my plays are equal 1 unit plays.  (except to satisfy an itch for the home team 1/20).

btw...I'm playing 2H again tonight so check your PM.

good luck pal.  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 06:41PM
Thank you GR88.  I've posted my POD on WBA's thread.  GL  with your play(s) tonight.  Thanks for dropping by. 
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 05:16PM

Damn Chump...you really need to stop.  You ain't that far off pal.  What are you?? like 3 games behind me.  C'mon man...I check your play EVERY day.  But thank you my friend for the kind words.  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 05:18PM

Thanks pal.  I was thinking the same thing.  I'll end up playing it as my only total tonight and some side action.  Poker???  Damn you got all of it covered.  Best of luck Chump.  We'll keep the home fire burning.
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 05:19PM

LOL.  we're all in this together and you're English is fine.  no offense taken!!  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 05:21PM

It all evens out, there'll be whistles in our favor.  Thank you U S and always the BOL to you!!  
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 05:28PM

I looked at this game in the morning and thought...this is the bargain on the board tonight.  after my excitement to lay the lumber on this, I did some capping.  UTA is like that crazy girlfriend you had in HS.  Which Sybil will you get tonight?  The best thing to do on a Friday night is to leave Sybil alone.  There are other girls to go out with.  Good Luck U S 
axpiota59 says:
02/06/09 11:19PM
Whytt..thanks but please be respectful on the other thread.  I post there because I think he's a good 2H capper.  I'm happy you're making some $$$ tailing my plays.  If you're interested, I posted my UTA/SAC 2H there already.  Thanks man and let's bring this home.
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