axpiota59's Blog

NBA SAT 030709 early thoughts - value hunting

By axpiota59 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, March 07, 2009 12:58 AM   91 comments
Sorry in advance, I may not be as interactive if at all the next few days...I'm only doing this because I'm a superstitious capper and strongly believe that you DO NOT stop during a HOT streak. Plus I like the money.

Detroit at Atlanta @minimum value..no real indication which way the line is going but I'm liking the under.
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mrod112 says:
03/07/09 01:02AM
 stay hot!!!  great job today
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:09AM
Thank you sir. 
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:09AM
number not out yet but I'd buy this @201+

Washington at Dallas
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:14AM
oh boy...unless I'm missing something, this doesn't look right.

Golden State at Milwaukee @ 222

is saturday an extention of 'square' dancing friday?  just something really weird with this number.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:27AM
here's one that's absolutely screaming...pick me, pick me as your POD...hold on...

every game has gone under between these two this season

avg total 197.3 and covered by 15.7

Minnesota at Portland U 202.5

POR O/U 3-9 this season @ homewhen playing a team on the tail end of a b2b

add to this...when they're favored by DD O/U 1-5

the same analysis for MIN isn't as compelling but I think home team dictates here...

Close eye on this one

axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:31AM
Number isn't out on this either but it may be an option play with minimum value

Indiana at L.A. Clippers ... give me a good number please.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:35AM
Detroit at Atlanta
Washington at Dallas
Golden State at Milwaukee
Minnesota at Portland
Indiana at L.A. Clippers

I see 1 maybe 2 solid UNDER plays from this pool.


mrod112 says:
03/07/09 01:37AM
i know you play unders but what is ur take on clev/mia with total at 189 and wade and king doing what they did last time out ending with 207? 
Swoop says:
03/07/09 01:42AM
Any idea why Foye was out tonight for Minny?  Is he likely out or playing tomorrow?  This could add to your case for playing that under.  Without Foye and Jefferson, Minny has serious trouble finding the bottom of the net....  


yummyness says:
03/07/09 01:47AM
do you only hunt for totals?

what about games?

or are the lines too fishy to cap?

det getting plus points against atl who is struggling

mem getting small points against a very rested phi

guys take note mem just won a game SU did they ever win b2b games SU this season? im not sure if they ever won b2b games SU the past 3 seasons, did they?

 

insatiable says:
03/07/09 02:16AM
keep up the the good work buddy. BOL
BOOGIEMAN80 says:
03/07/09 02:19AM
lts41 says:
03/07/09 02:31AM
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 07:32AM


guys, tight on time...can't be as interactive...gotta run...going to check out some trends and buying one of 'em...GL
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 08:12AM
tboss20 and forty7, 
I was just going over some old post...always looking for an edge and angle.  I realized you two have been with me for a while...damn, thanks for the support during this HUGE run.  You two must be rich by now. 
Mad_Skillz123 says:
03/07/09 08:28AM
Ax, i got this from my bookies:

Portland U 203.5

Milwaukee U 223.5


 Those numbers are good for the under imo, what you think ?

I also like ATL ML @ 1.7 and MEM +5 , maybee 5.5...and INDY ML @ 1.8



tomius says:
03/07/09 08:35AM
I think Indy has some value since they try to make the playoffs and for the Clippers is a no-sense game.I mean if the Clippers lose they ll have better possibilities to end the season lower for having a % for the upcoming draft.The motivation is bigger for the Pacers than for the Clippers.

What 's your option about it Axpiota ?


akison03 says:
03/07/09 09:18AM
On atl
2fer1 says:
03/07/09 09:57AM
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:22AM

My friend...I love both of those numbers...I like the POR one better.  May want to fade me though cause I'm due...LOL  GL brother.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:27AM

tight...tight...super tight...this one could go either way.
FlippaCoin says:
03/07/09 10:33AM
Good morning Ax,  wish I only played ur picks, yesterday. 

That will be my strategy for today.  ingenious, I would say. 

 

Speaking of geniuses....I'm glad ur helping us all make that money.

 

indy/clipp is at 210.5

axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:35AM

This team is hurting...I look at last nights game...POR plays better D and scores less than the Lake Show.  That puts us roughly around 200.  I really think the POR D is going to be the story here, what I can't rely on is MIN.  Do they give up 100, 110, 120 to POR?  I do ike this game alot.
FlippaCoin says:
03/07/09 10:36AM
under Den 

under Det 

almonst a pick, under Lal 

 

Thank you for work.

axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:37AM

Only unders on this thread and no sides for me.  feel free to discuss your action but I don't have much input on the O or sides.


axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:39AM
insatiable, BOOGIEMAN80, lts41

thanks guys 


therealdjlaura says:
03/07/09 10:40AM
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:42AM
greenfield says:
03/07/09 06:59PM
LFTNUT says:
03/07/09 01:47PM

team=Cavaliers and site=home and date>20090201


not to sound stupid or anything. what dat mean?

LFTNUT says:
03/07/09 01:50PM
ok

thanks

corndogking says:
03/07/09 11:15AM
How much do you consider the referee's tendencies when looking for an under spot? (provided ref info is known beforehand)
Forty7 says:
03/07/09 03:10PM
Thanks for everything.

 

I was on Portland first thing this AM, I hate going with the public, but i hate more not following my gut.  I am excited aboy both of these plays!!!.

Deezy135 says:
03/07/09 05:09PM
 
Thank you as well very much!!!!! been reading what you got to say and its been great keep up the good work
Deezy135 says:
03/07/09 05:23PM

Man i like this guy he's smart and he keep's it rea !!!!!
Deezy135 says:
03/07/09 05:30PM
 
S p o r t s D a t a B a s e 
Chooch77 says:
03/07/09 07:09PM
Hey Pal, great job last night!!  What are you going to do with all your money?  Good luck tonight and thanks for the data website, i'm going to play around with some trends.
Chooch77 says:
03/07/09 08:17PM
Very true!  Knowledge is power.  I use trends in football and it eliminates the house edge. 
psantana357 says:
03/07/09 05:59PM
ok ok man show us your final picks, am getting kind of crazy reading all this post..........

best of luck man!!!
psantana357 says:
03/07/09 04:58PM
axpiota what time will you post your final card??
CoFred says:
03/07/09 07:11PM
Ax. Just caught on to your intelligence after reading WBA's posts for a while. Keep up the good work and hopefully together we can make some


orr888 says:
03/07/09 11:54AM
  Ax, u have a new fan. Betting the Unders is the only way to have Mr. Time on my side. Wash/ Dall under my play.
Fathomable says:
03/07/09 08:02PM
hey ax. havent said hi in awhile cause i really havent had anything to contribute. looks like ur r doing well as always brother.          


covers has lines up for tomorrow. im looking at the spurs game (naturally) and they have pho at san anton at 219.5. looks like a good spot to me. any gut feeling here? im sure u havent capped it yet but man, it stood out to me. bol bud
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 08:17PM

My friend...I have looked at this already and this thing is so OFF.  The public is so crazy with PHO and their new "old style" run and gun, no defense.  I should take this to a new thread BUT...did you know that since 1995...no SAS has ever had a total of 220+

O/U is 3-13 when the total is 210+
throw in that SAS is at home O/U 1-7-1 when total is 210+

I see in some books that it's 220.  this is like a broke alcoholic waking up with a full bottle of vodka in his hands...
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 07:19PM

you too pal. 
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 07:14PM

Chooch..no problem pal and thanks.

you know...I was really surprise to find out that people don't trend their own games...man, those trends they throw at you like here on covers ain't gonna cut it.  You need to trend on your own by building a collection of queries.  When people ask for advice...one thing I tell them is to learn SDQL...Once you learn this...you won't believe the difference it make in profitable units.

GL my friend...
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 07:15PM

Welcome sir and share your ideas and let's collect together!  
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 07:09PM

All my plays are 1 Units each...no game is worth more than any other.  Since everything is a guess, how do you know to lay more on one game than any other?  

Whenever I have 3 plays, I consider a 3teamer parlay opposite of every single play I make.  3 teams pay 6-1 and if I happen to tank and go 0-3...I get all my money back with a 1/2 unit insurance play.  This minimizes your winnings but sometimes it's worth it.  

0-3...break even
1-2...you lose
2-1...you profit
3-0...you profit

I think it's just worth it and with this run i'm on...i see an 0-3 night in my future...just being a realist and not ignorant enough to think i can keep this up.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 06:31PM
Hey guys, sorry...Saturdays are bad enough but extra busy today.  I have a play in for the GS/MIL under for 8:30...got no action for the early games... GL all 
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 06:51PM
I think there's plenty of value left @220 for the GS/MIL game.  Posted this as my POD on WBA's thread.

I locked the MIN/POR game @202 but wouldn't suggest buying it now @199...no value left IMHO

I'm still going to dig a little deeper with the IND/LAC game now @212.  I happen to like the crew on this game and it supports some trends and stats I'm looking at.

My card:

GS/MIL U222
MIN/POR U202

maybe ...IND/LAC U212

I'm going to hedge this now with a .5U opp parlay @6/1...with this current run, I need insurance...No one, I mean no one can keep this pace.

BOLTA 
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 06:52PM
test...test...
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:45AM

Wouldn't you freakin know it...I was hoping for 211...I know it's just a hook but buying the hook is artificial value and doesn't jive with the economy of the board and therefore is NO VALUE at all.  watching this closely and if it hits 211...that's value but at the very minimum.  could be better value elsewhere on the board.

there's only one stinkin' genius and that's Arnie...some of yu guys know who I'm talking about!
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:46AM

Thanks Turc, get it back today brother, I think your capping and analysis is SOLID!  
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:47AM

That was a hell of a night..for flippin coins LOL.  Thanks pal.  
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:50AM
thanks DJ.  Good luck brother!  

ok all...being paged...time to be Mr. MOM.  gonna get to some more  capping this afternoon.   sorry...wish I had more to give y'all...tight on time.  peace..

axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:48PM
run the querry @sportsdatabase.com

axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:49PM
FYI fellas  

Indiana at L.A. Clippers has an UNDER crew of zebras
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:42PM
For those looking to play MIA/CLE

run this:

team=Cavaliers and site=home and date>20090201

simple but straight to the point for the best defensive team in the NBA
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 02:53PM
Turc...the only problem I have with MIN/POR...the public and the money ...well...we're all in brother.  GS/MIL...public on the over but the number is going the other direction.  We're with the smart money.  BOL 
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 02:59PM

I'm really not a big fan of buying points...it's artificial value.  In the long run, it's been mathematically proven that it's a losing strategy.  That's just me though...with that said...199 is no value IMHO.  Check out GS/MIL or  IND/LAC...you may find some value .  GL 
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 03:18PM

Thank you pal...love exchanging ideas...GL..


My 5 dogs are calling...time to get back to house and family responsibilities...catch y'all around gametime...


axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:53PM
 

thanks homie...i've locked in but the damn lines moved on us overnight (not the same value if I posted now)...i'm looking for value with the current lines
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 01:58PM

Thank you...I'm just your average everyday player and I DO NOT have a system...I have a capping routine.  this thread isn't a tout or nor do i intend anyone to tail my own plays.  we trade ideas here and after some back and forth, you guys help me pick a few games and we all cash in.  welcome and GL...
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 02:07PM

Damn...we go way back...there were nights I was punching my dashboard cause Arnie pissed me off and then the next minute, I'd be laughing my ass off.  
Love those first two plays but the MIA/CLE game I capped @188.  Hank and I were off large with this one.  
Sorry Hank...I missed your post this morning...I had a ton of crap I had to do.


axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 02:13PM

I locked in too good to be true @ 222 and the out of whack McHale's crew playing a better defensive team than the LakeShow and not so good offensive threat Blazers @202.  I loved both of these when they came out.

May not be close to these numbers now but there are still some value on the board.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 02:22PM

did you get a chance to run the query I posted proguy?  This is a stay away game for me.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 02:23PM
Not a huge factor but I do look.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 02:31PM

We don't use that 'O' word around here LOL, but when I looked at that game, it was looking that way.  I trended this with both teams and seeing conflicting trends.  Coupled with me capping this game @ 208 and really some inconsitent performances from both teams...I'm going for other options.
jlippens says:
03/07/09 07:00PM
like it, axp!
ThePatriot says:
03/07/09 01:58PM
what games have you locked in homie?
ThePatriot says:
03/07/09 01:42PM
in this thread we only speak of UNDER!! never the o word lol. but yeah thanks axpiota59, brother for last night! cant wait to see for today, what do you have locked right now?
rms8325 says:
03/07/09 03:02PM
thanks for your help
rms8325 says:
03/07/09 02:44PM
hey ax i just started following your picks yesterday good job on them. My book has portland/minn at 199 do you think i should play that or maybe buy points
Wildcats08 says:
03/07/09 03:40PM
Hey Ax, sorry if I missed it, but do you have any plays today?  I see a bunch of leans...I'm liking the GSW under.
t20boss says:
03/07/09 01:58PM

Thanks to WBA's daily NBA thread, your thought process and mine were right in line on most games. Just a natural gravitation, bud. But like you've always said, we're essentially just guessing right ?   We're in it for the long haul, and I've learned from my earlier days to avoid guys like Stu Feiner, Mike Warren and Jim Feist for cappin' advice. Done much better going with my own stats/knowledge, and finding some form of validation from other good cappers such as yourself.

I know which Arnie (stinkin' genius) you're talkin' about. Heard him 1st time back in the day on One-on-One Sports, before it became SNR. The guy was and is hilarious. Good stuff.

Tend to agree w/you on Minn/Port. Down to 199 w/ my book. But I still feel good about that going under. That and the Indy/LAC game appear to have the best "value's" for going under - everything else has dropped too far.  I agree w/ Hank that the Mia/Clev game may be a good play, but the line is up to 191.5 now. Still lookin' at that one a bit closer.  

proguy747 says:
03/07/09 10:56AM
Miami game should go over.   Miami is giving up 45% from 3pt land and cavs are shooting 45% from 3pt land.  This is where the cavs score in bunches. Mo williams is on fire beyond the arc.  Lebron  was embarresed last night and will light it up again going against wade.    wade will get 35-45 and after last nights game against the celtics everybody will see how to attack the cavs D. They will pound it in the paint causing a alot of fouls and free points.   With this combo I believe this gave is a definant over.  with a first half over for sure. 
proguy747 says:
03/07/09 11:51AM
starting to reconsider miami cavs being over. 
proguy747 says:
03/07/09 06:23PM
nice link to sportsdata.com      scary though becuase I feel like I can figure all the games out.  LOL  sounds like trouble.   patience, hardwork,  "Value"      thanks ax
JaySmooth says:
03/07/09 01:53PM
"

#44Posted: 3/7/2009 10:42:47 AMFor those looking to play MIA/CLE


run this:


team=Cavaliers and site=home and date>20090201


simple but straight to the point for the best defensive team in the NBA"

 

 

Ax and Hank, I've just gotta ask about your system and how you are doing it. I've been following you both for a couple of weeks and you guys are great doing all this to help out one another. The numbers you are crunching are legit! I've never believe that these sites would have guys like you that would help out others out with some picks. I've heard scam threads posting "free picks or pay for lock picks" that it was all set up by vegas to get you to make picks that aren't even locks.

 

I really wanted to let you know that I really appreciate your work and help. I would love to figure out how your system works or if you use some kind of fomula that could be explain that way I can start capping like you and helping others that stuggle as well.

KicKA55 says:
03/07/09 03:58PM
 
KicKA55 says:
03/07/09 03:58PM
 
tudelu says:
03/07/09 11:59AM
i shall tail you! i shouldve tailed you since before haha.
looks like you have two new fans haha
Flipside715 says:
03/07/09 12:33PM
damn ax, only if i listened to your picks last night, i woulda banked more...

i only took the cavs/celtics over and the spurs/wiz under

for today tho...LOCKDOWNNNN pick for now is over on the bobcats @ knicks 206

charlotte's tired legs playing off a b2b should benefit knicks run n' gun style and nate robinson's back....the cats should still put up points since the knicks are statues on defense (knicks gave up at least 105 pts, the last 6 games)
Philip_Rivers says:
03/07/09 07:00PM
Hey ax, just started tracking you this week.  You are the man my friend.  What does it mean when you said ".5U opp parlay".  BOL man.  Thanks.
Philip_Rivers says:
03/07/09 07:17PM
Thanks AX.  GL tonite.
corndogking says:
03/08/09 02:01AM
38 point 4th quarter lands the game on 211.

And I got locked in at 210.5!  ahhhhh

good stuff, still.
corndogking says:
03/08/09 02:05AM
That 4th was ridiculous BTW.  I think we saw like 14 points in the final 6 minutes to land where it landed.

Actually had 1 unit at 210.5, 1 at 211.  so that miraculous iceberg the clips struck wasn't *all* for naught.

Great call on the Portland game, too.
Fathomable says:
03/07/09 09:00PM
no, i didnt know that. thx for the input ax.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:25PM
pulled the trigger on IND/LAC U212.  damn...it's been a long day...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:12AM
It's was a humbling 2-1 evening.  It is almost a relief to get a loss.  You know it's coming but when???  That GS/MIL game was a damn joke...I have to agree with nbafan's thread about not touching DN's team for a while.  The MIN/POR was solid and man...this last one...sorry corndogking...it sucks when we can't ALL cash in.  We'll get 'em next time pal.  Time to take this to the next thread...jope you guys have had a chance to check that out.  Some value on the PHO/SAS matchup...
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 02:04AM
Sucks to hear that corndogking.

Miracle cover for us, ax!!! The Clippers' crappiness knows no boundaries!!!
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