axpiota59's Blog

NBA SUN 030809 early thoughts - value hunting (5-31)

By axpiota59 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, March 07, 2009 08:21 PM   168 comments
just posted this as a carry over...PHO/SAS 220

This thing is so OFF.  The public is so crazy with PHO and their new "old style" run and gun, no defense. 

...did you know that since 1995...no SAS has ever had a total of 220+

O/U is 3-13 when the total is 210+
throw in that SAS is at home O/U 1-7-1 when total is 210+

I see in some books that it's 220.  this is like a broke alcoholic waking up with a full bottle of vodka in his hands...
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axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 08:22PM
LMAO...

I just noticed...i think there's a a number missing...oh man...I SUCK

LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 08:44PM
2 games warrant some consideration...

Philadelphia at Oklahoma City...no number yet but I'll might buy if this comes out @198+

Denver at Sacramento...@212...it's worth a look and some more detailed capping.

So. Those are the ONLY 3 games I'm going to consider.  There's only 7 games and I think I already found the sale on the board....anyone think differently?

LOL...I keep laughing everytime I see that record...I am hitting 13.8% of my plays...LOL 
Fathomable says:
03/07/09 09:08PM
now, will this # go up or down? im thinking we should take it when we see it. hopefully it goes higher but i kinda doubt it.
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 09:16PM

take it...
proguy747 says:
03/07/09 10:08PM
Thanks for the sight info.  saved me on the cavs game.  Good stuff
axpiota59 says:
03/07/09 10:23PM

good to hear bro..those numbers were quite compelling.  
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/07/09 11:06PM


Ax, you're atrocious!

Haha, on a serious note, did you lock into PHX/SAS U220 yet? It has already dropped to 219.5  in my book. Also, do you think this game could turn out like PHX/HOU on Friday night? Some felt that 225 was too high and they still went over that, even though Houston plays a relatively slower pace than most teams.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 12:28AM
ax utah under looks historically like a good play.
PDudek7263 says:
03/08/09 12:32AM
chump says:
03/08/09 02:03AM
San Antonio / Phoenix  ( under 219 1/2 )  looks to be the best play of the day !!! Forget the first 3 games that Phoenix scored 140+ because those were "adrenaline" games for the new coach Gentry ... the eight games since the Suns are averaging 114 points. The Suns will find it difficult to put up such a number against the top defensive team in the West in San Antonio which is averaging 93 PPG on defense. This is the Suns 4th game of a 4 game road trip ... they dropped the 1st 3 and in doing so perhaps dropped out of the playoff picture ... the season is over for the Suns ... this road trip was a disaster for them so I don't see them rising to the occasion against the Spurs.

 

What say you AX ??? 

axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:28AM

This is an excellent point!!!  Similar teams defensively at home...when SAS or HOU allows 100+...the game is over the number period...perfect O/U this year @home.  I did lock this for my base.  (I'm not sure if you're familiar with this part of my betting strategy, I've posted this in the past).  I'm going to cap this some more and we'll have to talk this out.  I believe HOU is actually a better team @home this year than SAS.  Good lookin...PnP
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:32AM

What worries me here is the lack of defense from TOR lately...I tend to give more weight to home teams dictating even a little control over the game and I don't think TOR dictates (or tries) by playing D...What do you think pal?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:39AM

I say welcome back with some THUNDER pal!!!!  Man, I'm ready to make this a full unit play and stamp POD on it...Excellent write-up.  And...National TV game on ABC.  There you go Pick-N-Pop...lock it in...

Thanks again for the email the other night Chump...meant a lot...she is doing well...almost too well...already gave me a project to tear down a wall in the livingroom next week.  Geez.... 
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:41AM

Everything is well pal...thank you...it was a long day with some family obligations and trying to keep this streak going.  Not bad 2-1 night for me.  You're cashing in like a madman!    Let's keep this going.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 02:41AM


I'm just shocked that I'm actually contributing something to y/our success, haha. I already locked in at 219 for 1 unit as soon as I saw Chump on the same side. Considering putting another half unit on it now though...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:42AM

KB ???? are we rolling or what? 
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:47AM

I honestly believe so...I say buy some now (maybe not a whole unit if you're not 100% sure), do some more diggin, buy some more tomorrow, sell it back and eat the juice or just let it ride.  I think the more people read this game, the more attractive the under looks.  I'd be curious to know what you ended up doing chase...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:49AM

I'm sure you know by now I'm full unit locked in after reading Chump's post...the guy is a stinkin' Genius...LOL, I miss Arnie...
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 02:56AM
Yeah, ax, I saw. Whenever you two are on the same side (or more aptly total in our case), it seems to breed success more often than not, with tonight's POR game being a prime example. That's the only reason why I'm considering bending my money management a bit in this situation.

re: UTA/TOR --> You are worried about TOR's defense lately? It's been like this all season. If a snail team like Miami can put up 108 on us, I shudder to think what Sloan's system can do...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:58AM

Chase...you do realize you're asking a C's homer if you should bet against my beloved Celtics right??  LOL I think you know my answer...No letdown here for the Celtics, this team got a taste of blood the other night and can still smell first in the East...take that with a grain of salt from a homer...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 03:01AM

Man, that's why I love the back and forth in this thread...I have a TOR expert right here.  Safe to say that the under may not be a smart play.  Thanks pal...please keep visiting this thread...love it!
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 03:04AM

LOL Turc so tomorrow your subject line will read 'Saturday'?  My drink of choice is JD, neat of course...

Your 'system' has gained my respect Turc...better yet, not your system but your capping has gained my respect. 
pnelson says:
03/08/09 03:06AM
GOOD STUFF GUYS I DO THINK U CONSIDERING D RITE GMS TO PLAY ON I ALSO LIKE BOS-3 AT HM WHAT DO ANYBODY THINK ABOUT HOU&MEM
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 03:06AM
Turc: admittedly this does look too good to be true, with 9 of the last 10 staying under this number, with the only over being an OT game. Hopefully we're on the right side of the total though!
corndogking says:
03/08/09 01:40PM
Is there a way to pull a stat for the totals record of day games played at 1 PM or earlier local time?

I firmly believe guys whose bodies are used to playing basketball at 8pm can't just roll right out of bed and knock down shots at noon, !PM (and this could be exaggerated when you see western teams heading east to play day games)......

With that in mind, daylight savings lost hour also plays into this line of thinking today.

And.....Phx/SA is what, 1:30 local start?
HoldenRg says:
03/08/09 02:23PM
BOL ax hope all is well at home glad to hear evertything went well at tthe hospital  PEACE!
BigWaveDave says:
03/08/09 09:36AM


Since you love the back and forth............certainly hope you don't mind me posting an alternate view for you to respond to...........


As things stand, Orlando still has to know Cleveland is the fav to get

1st in the East. Since Orlando is a dead cert for 3rd - no better or

worse - that means Boston (in coming 2nd in the East) is going to cross

their paths in the playoffs (Orlando has no basis to think Boston will

be knocked out before the Conf semis, just as they'll have no thought

they dont make the Conf semis themselves). So Orlando, having gone 0-2

vs Boston this season already, is trying to make the March 25th game in

Orlando (which KG is likely to be available for) a game they're out to

win to tie the season hth record at 2 a piece, rather than one they'll

be out to win to avoid going 0-4. What would going 0-4 or 1-3 mean

psychologically for the Magic facing the Celts in the playoffs without

HCA? I think this game would be all about the coming playoffs, not

regular season final standings possibilities.


Orlando has very few games to care about from here on out in the reg.

season, but this as far as I see it is one of the exceptions. I'd

personally love to see them win this game SU, because they then won't

give a shit about Detroit the next night, even thou Detroit recently

beat them in Fla.

axpiota..........your thread is a must read for me each day.  I can only hope some of your brulluuance rubs off on me.
Thanks for taking the time each day to share and help so many.

LaDaddy says:
03/08/09 09:29AM
.........gl today
Gambleholic says:
03/08/09 11:58AM


This would be wonderful
Deezy135 says:
03/08/09 09:56AM
axpiota..........your thread is a must read for me each day. 
that's what im talking about guys!!!
but seriously no luv on hou????
Deezy135 says:
03/08/09 09:13AM



any thoughts on hou under?
Chooch77 says:
03/08/09 12:07PM
Well Ax, another profitable night for you!  Well done.  I couldn't take port und because I had it at 199.5. 

 

A person with NBA ties once told me that Saturday nights take the overs because a lot of the players have their girlfriends in the crowd and want to play well for them.  Do any trends back that up?  Apparently the girlfriends don't like to see defense

Fathomable says:
03/08/09 09:23AM
yea, i been eyeballin that hou game myself.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 03:21AM

ditto
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 03:16AM
PnP--got this capped @213...@220, this is the perfect 3 possession cushion I always look for.


axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:09PM

You like the HOU side deezy?  You're you to give MEM DD?  please share...I can't cap sides and you know that.  
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:13PM

LMAO proguy...we're only joking about that 'O', it's just that we tend to or I tend to play 99% unders since I personally think there's more value there.  Only my personal preference....

man, learn how to use that thing...I can already tell you're getting good info from it.  have you downloaded the NBA manual for that...helps a lot bro...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:16PM
Flippa,

very minimum value on the under in phi/okc @195.  I was hoping for 198 so no play for me on that game...slight lean though...

PHO/SAS still looks good @218.5

GL brother.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:20PM
VegasAce,

217.5 is minimum value.  I toald flippa that 218.5 still looked good but didn't mention it was minimum value also.  I know, I know, seems like only a few points but it's all about the confort level....just be careful from here with this number...GL
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:24PM
Chooch,

Thanks pal...I'll take a 2-1 night.

Saturday night this season

O/U:79-68-5 (2.8)avg total: 197.6

53%...ouch...filp a coin...LOL...I wouln't make a play on that alone pal...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:03PM

Excellent situational analysis BWD.  Be careful my friend, you have ORL looking ahead to a possible split with BOS after they win @ home about 3 weeks from now.  I understand the gravity of this game for ORL but I ask myself this..."is ORL a better team now than the previous 2 meetings?"  I don't think they're putting together strings of wins like they were previously.  "Are the C's a better team now than then?"  The injuries certainly hurt. 
 I'm on this game purely as a homer...I don't even post it as a play.  Thanks for the kind words BWD...love to hear more of your insight in the future.  
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:06PM

Our local TOR expert PnP may agree...I defer to you on this game...for all it's worth...I'm NOT taking the under and I'll leave it at that.  GL with this Crock 
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 11:44AM

Huge discrepancy depending on where these two play...you would think there's a pattern. MEM this season avg totals is right @194.

Looks like vegas didn't have to do much research tos et this totals line. 194 holds true since the calendar turned 2009. witht that said the O/U is split and no real trend.

yes 4 of last 5 on the road for MEM has gone under but my stats just don't jive with this. I don't think it's a good buy personally.

whacha got for me?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 11:50AM

Ok Hamk...let's do this...by the numbers

Utah at Toronto 206...damn...are we way off 
Phoenix at San Antonio 213...this has to be the POD
Denver at Sacramento 200...I really think ypou have a more reliable number here and this is looking like a decent play.

Saturday was hell but things are getting back to normal.  I must say, she's recovering quicker than we thought .  BOL pal.  We'll need to do a "lessons learned" session after the season just to discuss STATS analysis.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:41PM
I like it...if this goes over 111 in the 1H then the whole damn game is in trouble.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:34PM

you looking to go under 111 1H ace?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:42PM
KB, you are correct sir, I do not do 1H...I dabble with 2H sometimes...but your logic is sound...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 01:28PM
covers or home email KB?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 01:21PM

I'm personally staying away myself. 

Still wondering if the PHI/OKC under has any value @ 195 since I was really hoping for 198.  that 3 point diff is a whole possesion and that could be some ticky-tack foul or some scrub scoring the last seconds of the game,  DEN/SAC looks interesting and I'm not sure if I like it or just trying to convince myself if I like it.  The deviation is too much for me to be comfortable with.

 

 

axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 01:24PM

 

take care pal..6 on the board tomorrow...no rest for the wicked...I'm still not sure if I'm going to be around this week...but then again...I really didn't think I was going to be around this weekend...one day at a time

 

BOL

axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:28PM
frozen, going to wait and watch some more.  I have a heavy lean on this game and will let the public and the money keep moving this up.  When I see it peaking It may become a play...on the under of course.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:35PM

FYI...this is Chump's POD...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 12:47PM
test..test..test..for the 3rd time
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 01:58PM

I know the matchup section on covers has that broken down for day/night games but I personally don't know if sdql can query that.  anyone???
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:29PM

Excellent...thanks for this.  I agree that they will likely give up the 100 easy.  As you said, they barely score 100 themselves lately.  The question now boils down to how much can DEN score over 100 and how far under 100 does SAC go?  I certainly hope I'm not liking this game only because I'm looking for late night action.  Honestly, I'm not entirely sold on the under here.  This will seriously be a game time decision for me but for now...not locked into anything...

BTW, looks like we have my SAC Kings' source.  just like fathomable is our SAS source and PnP is my our TOR source, Chump (CLE) and plenty of BOS homers too.  Lots of others I haven't mentioned.  This is good stuff...if you got a team you follow and have good info...let us know!!!

BOL pal
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:30PM

Thank you my friend.  Much appreciated! 
jlippens says:
03/08/09 03:16AM
Pinnacle, the sharpest lines anywhere, has this line dropping a full point by 1AM, so honestly, I agree with the assessment of buying now and deciding later whether you want to buy out of it. There's a real possibility of it dropping so much you can a) be further reinforced in the call of the line move or b) have a small opportunity to middle.
vegasace99 says:
03/08/09 12:25PM
Thanks Ax ur awesome....will wait til gametime n see if it doesnt move back up a bit...will otherwise hold off. GL!!!
vegasace99 says:
03/08/09 02:32PM
My line went back up to 218...thinkin bout gettin in at this spot. what does everyone think of 111 1st half???
vegasace99 says:
03/08/09 11:27AM
dammit! might have missed the boat on this one...at 217.5 now...has it lost its value here Ax???
vegasace99 says:
03/08/09 02:37PM

was thinkin so, yes....

vegasace99 says:
03/08/09 02:42PM
lets do this!!
Crockie says:
03/08/09 09:55AM


Utah @ Toronto is going over in my opinion

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Toronto

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah's last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games

I think it's gonna be a shootout with no defense from Toronto. The total will be ~220 points.

FlippaCoin says:
03/08/09 10:37AM
Good morning Ax,

 

It's a beautiful day so far.  yesterday was a 1-2 for me cuz I bought clippers under early morning at 210.5.....a half pt kick in the bum, for me.  Today I will take revenge with your help.  Currently I see 5dimes has phx/sas game with the lowest o/u at 218.5.   I truely believe that they are one of those books who spy on covers cappers.  lol

 

currently phi/okl is at 195. 

your thoughts on this, please.

FlippaCoin says:
03/08/09 10:42AM

 

it is now at 218 for phx/sas

....and of course, I locked it in at 219.5 last night, thanks to you.

proguy747 says:
03/08/09 10:38AM
Do not listen to me I do not no what the hell I am doing.  These #s are making me crazy.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 10:39AM
Ax was looking for 198+
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 12:20PM
Manual,  what is that ?  Is he the guy mowing my lawn?  Instructions are for girls.  Pictures that is what men need.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 10:03AM
I dont yet know how to enter the sdql, but maybe someone could find out sunday morning early game totals.  Then even better the early game after spring forward.  

My thinking is everybody is tired so would nba guys wo like to stay up to all hours being thugs.

proguy747 says:
03/08/09 10:06AM
Sorry about the english, I am tired.  No proof reading
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 10:19AM
I am starting to learn it and it looks like tronoto has the edge and the over is looking good. Sorry wrong thread to say that.  Lean away the unders.  better?
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 10:21AM
"edit" about tronoto having the edge.  just the "O"
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 03:11AM

Actually it was double overtime that took it over 220.

 

Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 03:13AM
proguy747: even better!

Oh and ax, curious as what number you capped for this game? It's always amazing/entertaining to see how close you actually came to the final score.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 03:44AM
Fuck it, bought another unit to bring me to two full units on this. Pop knows that his geriatric team cannot possibly keep pace with Phoenix for a full 48 and thus will need to dictate a slower tempo. What does worry me is that Parker will punish Nash all day long. I mean Aaron Brooks lit him up for 30 pts on 20FG on Friday night... What's gonna happen when you have one of the premier PGs take him off the bounce? Not to mention that the Pick-N-Roll with Parker and Duncan is like fuckin' clockwork, and their counterparts in Nash and Shaq are arguably the worst PnR defenders at their respective positons in the entire league since Nash has no lateral quickness and Shaq doesn't step out to the shooter...

I am going to sleep now before I worry more and go crazy.

BOLTA!!!
morefun says:
03/08/09 05:00AM
PS vs SAS = 219 Under

Thanks AX

GL to us followers.. LoL


frozengopher says:
03/08/09 12:17PM
Ax, looks like the public is heavy on over Nuggs-Kings. It's at 212.5 right now, will this rise more? Seems like a nice number to get under. Thanks!!!
Philip_Rivers says:
03/08/09 02:15PM
Hey Ax, Kings fan here...For what it's worth there are some factors I have considered in betting this game under:

1.  Since the Kings lost Johns Salmons (their 2nd leading scorer) they have only gone over 100+ 2 times.

2.  They haven't played since Tuesday.  The Kings are notorious for coming out cold after a long lay off.

3.  Since the trade deadline, the Kings have slowed the offense down, supposedly in an attempt to get the new guys acclimated.

4.  Kevin Martin will be able to get his usual 20+ points, but questionable who can back him up.

This being said, I too feel strong about the high total for this game.  My book has them it at 213.  The only thing that concerns me is that the one constant here (trades or no trades) is that the Kings play absolutely no defense.  I see them giving up 100+ here.

BOL pal!  
LFTNUT says:
03/08/09 02:47PM
hey ax, my house o/u is set at 215 for the pho/sa game. you think its a good bet or not?
LFTNUT says:
03/08/09 02:54PM
corndogking says:
03/08/09 02:46PM
matchbook went from 217.5 back up to 218.5....now it's down to 217.5 again and about to go lower. If you've still got a 218 I'd jump it.
corndogking says:
03/08/09 04:30PM
Moving down nicely :)

i LOVE fouls on duncan

corndogking says:
03/08/09 04:37PM
Suns did_not_score in the final 5:18.

HUGE!

corndogking says:
03/08/09 05:08PM
Yep. I'm going for the middle with half my play (put 2 units on U 219.5 to start).

211-219 is double money.

corndogking says:
03/08/09 05:24PM
As the 3rd Q has shown us here, sometimes you're in a position to middle at the half due to the fact that you were on the right side to begin with :)

Would take an obscene 68 point 4th to foil us here, 59-68 for us middlers getting greedy with it.

Suns need to push it.....no OT PLEASE!

corndogking says:
03/08/09 05:41PM
yeah that denver number does look *FAT*

At this point I don't think they'd hit 220 WITH OT (though maybe i'd catch my little middle haa)

BigWaveDave says:
03/08/09 06:33PM
       
BigWaveDave says:
03/08/09 07:12PM
BigWaveDave says:
03/08/09 06:58PM


Best news of the night...............lol!!!!

And may I add:

My nomination for Best Idea of The Year:

We'll need to do a "lessons learned" session after the season just to discuss STATS analysis.

BigWaveDave says:
03/08/09 04:46PM


Chump...................nice one!!!! 


mrod112 says:
03/08/09 05:40PM
ax i see denver at 214 is that a good play considering it was at 212 earlier? 
chump says:
03/08/09 05:57PM
AX ... overnight numbers are out for tomorrow ... no time to celebrate ... let's get to work !!!
chump says:
03/08/09 04:56PM

Good thought ... I was tempted but did not ... did you ???

chump says:
03/08/09 04:44PM
The 106 1/2 number put up for the second half coupled with the 103 first half makes me smile
chump says:
03/08/09 04:05PM

SA must work a bit harder on D because of the absence of Manu Ginobili ... regardless, the under is the ticket !!!

chump says:
03/08/09 04:10PM

Hmmm ... I remember a quarterback in the NFL that had five dogs ... here in East Lansing you're only allowed to have two !!!

chump says:
03/08/09 04:13PM
When AX takes his FIVE dog for a walk only TWO are allowed to take a dump on any given walk because it's UNDER the number.
jpesoo says:
03/08/09 06:37PM
nice work
jpesoo says:
03/08/09 04:34PM
that qt was HUGH 117 pt cush
jpesoo says:
03/08/09 04:49PM
r u guys gonna ride the u 220 out or play the over 2nd half and try to catch the middle
Humbled2ManyTim says:
03/08/09 07:52PM
Ax -

Another great call - always appreciated and, again, many thanks...


Gambleholic says:
03/08/09 04:33PM
If there's an opportunity, I might try a middle in the 2nd half for half a unit.  Just don't feel comfortable that this doesn't bust out in the 2nd.
Gambleholic says:
03/08/09 04:33PM
Well, we should have 6 points or so

Gambleholic says:
03/08/09 06:03PM
Ole_Gunslinger says:
03/08/09 05:57PM
FatterWallets says:
03/08/09 07:19PM
Hey Ax - i know ure modesty will protest - but u seemed to have excelled at the art of 'discipline' - kudos to you!  I'm trying to get there..slowly...but wud like to give praise where its due.
Kinda a newbie to the site - but appreciate your knowledge and capping know-how.

TailingExpert says:
03/08/09 06:26PM
Deezy135 says:
03/08/09 03:18PM
sorry for the no resPonse Ax went back to sleeP
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 03:22PM

just in time for the POD game...You're missing a hell of a finish in Boston
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 03:32PM
Good call to the many ORL backers.  Now I'm depressed cause I'm a die hard homer. whoa, that lasted a whole minute  .  let's make some money!  gotta go walk my 5 dogs but bringing my sports beeper with me...yes, they still make beepers.  LOL, this one is only for sports though...I'm old school...maybe just old...BOL everyone.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:57PM

Thanks Turc, I have 4 hours left to change my mind about this game...I'm afraid of overcapping the PHI/OKC and DEN/SAC games.  When the PHO/SAS pays out...I'm going to call it a day.  LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 02:53PM

WOW, that's pushing it.  I cannot personally buy in @ that number.  Plenty of games left this season...no reason to force a play.  GL
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:21PM

Nice PnP...thanks for the heads up on your Raptors...that game did indeed go O...

I think I saw Crockie put 3 units on this one...twice @220 and 1 @219.

Nice way to spend a Sunday afternoon.  
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:18PM
OK guys, As you can tell, I a passed on the PHI/OKC game.  After a quick look over my capping notes, I just didn't have that feeling.  This is good news though.  Going to take a fresh set of eyes and start trying to get a read on the late game.  

philp_rivers is not feeling good about the under play here.  any up to the minute news on the west coast we should know about?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 06:48PM
I am going to be completely honest with you guys...Got back from walking my dogs, sat down on the couch (about the 2Q) and I just freakin woke up...I had no idea what the hell happened.  I'm going to go back and read some of these posts...BTW...I think I said this earlier...after I cashed in on the PHO/SAS game, taking the rest of the night off...I mean it...it's been a tough weekend...

give me 5 minutes to get the sleep out of my eyes and I'll change my mind...LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:09PM
From what I can gather...we weren't looking that good early...holy crap...240 pace?

Ok, Chump came on to reassure us that we had the right side.  Turc still confident but it looks like a close game so there's that sound in his voice (j/k).

Now Chump busting my balls about my 5 dogs...we're only allowed 3 so I use a different address for the other 2.  Now more ball busting from Chump about how many actually take a dump...you were wrong pal...it was the OVER...three.

LMAO, proguy is going to have a smoke and I think he just quit smoking this morning.  He's back and he lloks like he feels better.  

Now there's talk of middling.  Crockie has joined proguy...biting nails.  Turc tries to calm people down but still has that doubting sound in his voice.  Ok, BigWaveDave joins in busting my balls.  more talk of middling.

a little help for philip_rivers...(we've all been there pal) and flippa is nice enough to help.  proguy also lend a helping hand.

It must be looking good cause KB sounds confident.  LOL mrod is already looking ahead to the DEN game (i'll take a peek later pal).  Proguy is a mess, he's praying "NO OT, NO OT)

crap, now Chump is already looking at overnight lines...

We must have hit at this point because ther are a lot of HAPPY people.  except for hank who feels the need to jump on me while i'm down and bust my balls about the dogs.  LOL

guys, this post was all in good fun...no offense ok.

man, we put in some crazy work today.  THANK YOU.  Together, we create the best capper anywhere.  
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:56PM

Thanks PnP...DEN is in a tough spot...they can't afford to look past anyone.  The more and more I look at this game, the more I'm inclined to take the night off or watch the 1H and maybe small action on 2H.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:57PM

How do you feel about NO PLAY?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:58PM

anytime pal  
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 08:02PM

isn't it late night in Germany right now?  LOL...ok Crockie...let's hear it cause I'm not feeling this game...this number is a little tight for me.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 08:03PM

Lood lookin out PnP...going to do that right now...Thank you
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 08:08PM
We'll catch up tomorrow Crockie.  Good night pal
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:22PM

Thank you sir.  I'm just a guy guessing just like everyone else.   But thank you for your very kind words.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:25PM

Turc, I know it was only one game but I won't forget this Sunday anytime soon.  Just reading the post really gave me a sense of what was going on.  Had we all been in the same sportsbook in Vegas, it would have been a great setting for a movie.  We had all the characters...freakin hilarious!


axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:47PM

already on it...did you see my new thread?  looks great!  I'm going to have someone look in my ear because I think you're in my head...LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 09:03PM

Good play...our resdient TOR expert PnP was on the money with that call also.  Talk to ya @halftime...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 09:27PM
If this thing doesn't stay close...I won't be able to cap 2H...looking like a big letdown for DEN thus far...
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 09:48PM

Sorry Deezy...I think I misled you earlier telling you that this was Chump's POD...While this under hit...I shouldn't be making these kinds of mistakes.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 08:44PM

LOL, I think NO PLAY is a good idea boss.  there may just be a 2H play tonight...what else do I have to do?...I already have my play for tomorrow.  You cash in today pal?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 10:11PM
t20boss...Got nothing 2H...margin too large to cap for total...leaning DEN side though...you?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 10:12PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Daigia-Gamble]
you are very good AX

anything for monday bro
[/Quote

Thanks man...MON value thread already posted and locked in...GL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 12:03AM

Yeah, No play all around on DEN/SAC...it was another good day.. already hard at work and have a decent read of MON's board.  Good night to you sir..
Daigia-Gamble says:
03/08/09 10:05PM
you are very good AX

anything for monday bro

jlippens says:
03/08/09 04:52PM
yes, there's a decent middle here....do we eliminate the loss and have a chance to double up?
vegasace99 says:
03/08/09 02:46PM
locked in 111 U 1H...wow, the side dropped all the way to 4.5...was at 6 last night here in LV
vegasace99 says:
03/08/09 06:20PM
Ax...any thoughts on the 3 remaining games 2nite? strong leans???
Crockie says:
03/08/09 06:36PM
Crockie says:
03/08/09 06:51PM
welcome back - we hit it
Crockie says:
03/08/09 07:21PM
great
Crockie says:
03/08/09 04:34PM


agree but i haven't a good feeling about this game...
Crockie says:
03/08/09 07:31PM
axpiota i got already a game for tomorrow

lakers @ portland 203.5
Crockie says:
03/08/09 07:31PM


Yes that's right
Crockie says:
03/08/09 08:06PM


okay thanks for your opinion i'll think about it

yes it's late - 1 am but i'm so happy today with my great bets. the last 2 unders for me are looking great at the moment. but i'll go to bed in a few minutes
FlippaCoin says:
03/08/09 04:54PM
Phx and Over 107
FlippaCoin says:
03/08/09 05:06PM

even though you got under Phx 219 for the whole game. you are trying to hit over 107 for the 2H and still win both because there is a good cushion of points in between.

example.  you win over 107 2nd half and still win under 219 for the game totals.

FlippaCoin says:
03/08/09 06:16PM

WOW.......

   The geniuses hard at work

Much appreciated. 

t20boss says:
03/08/09 08:25PM

Did you say possible 2H action, Ax ? Finally - I've been waitin' for that. LOL. Not just an 'action junkie', right ? Seriously, watch the Kings out here in Cali many nights - at home I would say they have a fair chance of gettin' to 100, so I'm inclined to lay off till halftime. No play may be safest.

t20boss says:
03/08/09 10:12PM
Just as I thought - Sac town is scoring tonight at home. Will hit 100 easily. Thought's on 2H play now that Den is within 12 ?
t20boss says:
03/08/09 08:59PM

Yeah, my POD on WBA's thread was Utah/Tor over. Damn, I used the O word in this thread. Bad boss, bad.  

Will watch for a possible 2H post from you in about an hour or so, partner.  

 

t20boss says:
03/08/09 11:52PM
Hope you layed off that Denver 2H play, Ax. Hit the 2H over thanks to Den just staying close enough in the 4th qtr. Profitable day for both of us, and is all that matters. Look forward to seeing how things go tomorrow, especially on your Atl under play. Buenos noches, amigo.
t20boss says:
03/08/09 10:21PM

Since you're more of an under player, probably a 'no play' for ya ? Me, I'm thinking over - line is going up also. If Denver is going to get back in this one, it'll go over.

proguy747 says:
03/08/09 06:02PM
   
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 05:40PM
please no overtime please no overtime.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 05:08PM
rivers bet #1 under for game 219.

Bet #2 107 over .  if the final score was between 218-210  you win both bets.  first half score was 103.  hope that helps.

proguy747 says:
03/08/09 04:31PM
I need to take a walk. this game is making me nervous.   My feeling is that spurs pull away and then slow it down second half.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 04:32PM
looking better.   spurs starting to step up the d the last 4 minutes.
JJ802 says:
03/08/09 04:03PM
WOW is right. Spurs are not slowing the game down. No Def,  instead they are trying to keep up off. If this keeps up Spurs might lose the game. 
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 07:47PM


No problem, ax. Just glad that I'm able to give back to your threads. Thank you for being the best capper alive!

As for the late game, how much does your capping take into account B2Bs? Since Denver is hosting Houston tomorrow night, they might be inclined to "save some in the tank" for that game and possibly overlook/underestimate the Kings.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 07:59PM
Ax, you should read ValueForRent's write-up on the game. Another very insightful piece of information. Apparently the Kings coach enforced defence in practice yesterday
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 07:15PM
I'm VERY glad I decided to put that second unit on this game!

Congrats all!
Joe_Vienna says:
03/08/09 06:17PM


Thank you!
Joe
Philip_Rivers says:
03/08/09 05:14PM
Thank for the info guys...I'll think about doing that next time.

BOL to all!
Philip_Rivers says:
03/08/09 06:48PM
Thanks, Ax for the info today.  The 214 total for Kings game looks tempting, but as a Kings fan, I'm thinking about staying away.  
Philip_Rivers says:
03/08/09 04:58PM
Hey guys, can someone help me out.  What does it mean to bet a second half middle?
Philip_Rivers says:
03/08/09 03:37PM
SAS needs to do a better job covering that outlet pass.
Philip_Rivers says:
03/08/09 07:42PM
Ax, this is just my opinion in my analysis of this game there are two things coming to a head: (1) How much will Denver score against a very poor Sac Def and (2) How much Sac can score (they do have the capability to score close to 100 in this game).  

This is why I feel iffy.  If anything, a small play should be safe I suppose.  Take it for what its worth.  Just my opinion.  But no significant news out here.  BOL fellas!  
Philip_Rivers says:
03/08/09 10:25PM
Sorry Ax,

Just got home and read the posts.  Yeah NO PLAY was the play for the Kings game.  I know its after the fact but you were on today with the POD anyway.  

See you guys tomorrow.
avilaraf says:
03/08/09 06:02PM
Ax,very well done....thanks
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