axpiota59's Blog

NBA MON 030909 early thoughts - value hunting

By axpiota59 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, March 08, 2009 07:44 PM   210 comments
First game on the board looks very good.

New Orleans at Atlanta...189

this is like the slot machines near the entrances of the casinos.  It's programmed to pay out and draw you in deeper into the VOID.  first game on a monday just to get you hooked for the rest of the week.

The thing is...this is actually good value @189...I'm still shopping
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axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 07:53PM
Another one for Monday...

Washington at Minnesota 201.5...could this possibly be even a better play?  fellas?
Crockie says:
03/08/09 07:55PM
Ax don't you like the game Lakers @ Portland?
poorguy says:
03/08/09 08:04PM
Are you on the under on your games or?
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 08:08PM


When`s the last time you saw ax on an over???

Crockie: IMO, Portland is too unpredictable right now.
Crockie says:
03/08/09 08:14PM


Yes that's right Pick-N-Pop First I saw the line my thougts were: that's too high. but then I thougt about it some more minutes this game ist too riskful because the Lakers is the most highscoring team in the league. They're able to score more than 100 points in Portland easily I think.
Crockie says:
03/08/09 08:24PM
I wouldn't choose this game too. I think they'll both hit over 100
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 08:31PM
What about CHI-MIA? Chicago is crap on the road and Miami will dictate their slow pace as the host.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 08:33PM
Agreed...I did some digging and nothing is signaling an under play on MIN/WAS.   thanks guys...

ALERT

Washington at Minnesota capping notes filed in the cylindrical container next to my desk.

Turc...sell me on LAL/POR!
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 08:41PM

PnP, how much will that CHI D give up on the road?  MIA is an unders machine when playing CHI.  Both matchups this year was under and this 205 number is significantly higher than the other 2.  

Only 1 problem O/U since Feb 1 when MIA is home

O/U:7-1-1 (12.5)avg total: 197.1

Over covers the number by dd
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/08/09 08:53PM
This is why you are the man, ax.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 09:08PM
Ax do you think the atlanta line will move in our favor?   Becuase I have whatever team cracks 90+ will win the game. I have this game  at 183.  That leaves 6 points.   I am hoping for more but will lock a few units for sure tonight at 189
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 09:15PM
Thanks for the insight Turc...I'm going to cap this hard and come back with something also.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 09:16PM
portland historically struggles in portland.
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 09:16PM
lakers struggle in protland.   sorry typo earlier
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 09:17PM

Already locked in with base bet and will cap a little more before I go full unit.  I think this starts to move down...IMHO
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 09:20PM
lakers total will go up more then likely.   laker fans always pound the over.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 09:27PM
you seeing any movement since the number came out PG?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 09:34PM

if this DEN/SAC becomes a blowout...DEN will be plenty rested after calling it a night by the 3rd...got to watch this close...thanks pal  
proguy747 says:
03/08/09 09:45PM
I believe it is to early for movement.  tomorrow is  when it will move as laker fans are not the sharpest tool in the shed.  They will get home from work and gamble there hard earned money on the lake show.  There reaasoning will be Kobe  Bryant.
CoFred says:
03/08/09 10:53PM
Hey Ax. I just wanted to thank you for the gift on the PHO/SAS game yesterday. Hopefully, we'll get this one today too.
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 11:14PM

You are quite welcome sir...I can't take all the credit obviously...I threw a game out there and the great cappers that follow my thread thought it was a solid play...it just took off from there.  We'll try to keep this going...this play is looking like the POD for MON.  
ThePatriot says:
03/08/09 11:55PM
nice job today bro! what games did you lock in so far?
axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 11:56PM
NOH/ATL

O/U
86%-14% yet:

Date Time Over Under
8-Mar 5:48pm 189 189
8-Mar 10:27pm 189 -104 189 -106
8-Mar 10:38pm 189 -102 189 -108

axpiota59 says:
03/08/09 11:59PM
this is it for me so far Pat...I'm just doing some last minute capping to see if this warrants a full unit play tomorrow
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 12:05AM

Yeah Turc, this may be the peak on this total...if we're wrong, hell we can always buy more..Nice hit on PHI/OKC btw...it starts all over again tomorrow.  
FlippaCoin says:
03/09/09 12:16AM

You are quite modest.  Clearly, you have an amazing ability of selecting a premium play as it hits the early books.  Your fellow cappers and friends help confirm or dispute ur choice.  Thankful for their expertise, as well.

Much appreciated for Phx under, today.    

....helped me out a lot. 

NBrunner says:
03/09/09 07:27AM
This is one of the best threads in the forum and it demonstrates what it is about, a cooperative exchange of thoughts and ideas. I would hate to see you move this to a blog because you are showing others what it is about and that people can have conversations without bashing and all the other nonsense. You add some class to the group and I hope you don't take that away, this thread is a great example of what it should be.

Thanks.
KnightofSorrow says:
03/09/09 06:59AM
good luck ax, personally I would like you to stay in the forum, but I'm sure you will make the best decision on that, as you make capping totals every night 
yoyo says:
03/09/09 02:15AM
 ax, how do you think of the orl/det  over 187  for monday's game?
yoyo says:
03/09/09 02:16AM


ax, your thought is very appreciated.
yoyo says:
03/09/09 03:37AM
thanks ax. bol to u too.
chump says:
03/09/09 11:29AM
AX ... I see No / Atlanta under 189 and Chicago / Miami under 205 both as good plays today ... please take a second look at the Chicago / Miami game ... I will post my thoughts later -- have a lunch appointment soon !!!
gr8ts1 says:
03/09/09 03:59AM
i like the lke show !!!!
sao_lao says:
03/09/09 03:00AM
You have made this NBA season the best for me. I love coming into your thread and read about the analysis on each game you pick. You have been a great contribution to this forum. Keep up the great work!!  Thanks!!
sao_lao says:
03/09/09 03:02AM
I AGREE!!!
Forty7 says:
03/09/09 10:25AM
For what it is worth.  I think with the new features Covers is giving Blogs are the way to go.

 

Too many people just trying to get there picks blessed...

 

like Hey Ax I think here are my plays....when i read that i think great plays start your own thread

 

Some ask about the Overs...

 

Or the real idiots Hey Ax I like the Lakeres tonight what do you think?

 

IMHO delete is a blessing and the best thing for alot of this bullshxxx

 

 

 

 

Forty7 says:
03/09/09 10:28AM
Also, i know i offer little and i appreciate your hard work, you are beyond most of us....

 

I really appreciate how you stick with the Under plays because everyone wants to play Overs, it make your plays Gems

 

Thank You

Deezy135 says:
03/09/09 09:51AM
for what its w0rth i really enj0y y0ur fr0rm al0t i think it is the best m0st interesting f0rm 0n c0vers f0r me i enj0y reading it think it and it has br0ught al0t 0f g00d discussi0ns and input fr0m al0t 0f 0ther g00d cappers i really appreciate it al0t thank!!!! s0rry my o and p buttns d0nt w0rk cant get it fixed until the seas0n is 0ver ya dig???
LTE23 says:
03/09/09 01:56AM
Early Lean on

+1.5 ATL
+2.5 PORT
-1 Det

ATL plays tough at home. LAkers dont do well at the Rose Center. and My Magic Cant win in DET and cant even beat them at Home. At 1st Orlando opened at -1 and Det was +1. I was going to call it a Underdog Monday for me...GL.
BOOGIEMAN80 says:
03/09/09 01:54AM
rokodesh says:
03/09/09 12:30AM
I love hawks/hornets under 189, it stuck out to me when i first saw it as well.  Looking at the past three hawks home games, they've all been under and Hornets are not a run and gun team.  BOL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 12:39AM

Thank you Flippa, I'm about to share this "amazing ability" of spotting overnight value.  There will be many that read right over this because I didn't give a play.  I didn't tell them what to bet.

I get in my car on a Monday morning and I already know my tank is near empty.  Monday is the day I get gas.  Before I even leave my driveway, I already know (have an idea) what the price of regular is at every gas station in my area and on my commute.  When I see a price I like, I pull in an fill up.

Do you have any idea how many people gas up at $1.98 and drive down the street to find it at $1.78.  Probably very few BUT do you know how many people have no clue what number they want before the numbers come out???  I'm willing to bet (because I'm a gambler) that 90%...yes 90% of bettors have no idea what number they are looking for so when Vegas comes out with a number, they don't know if they are getting a bargain or not.

I pre-cap the next day's board and I always have a good idea what I'm willing to buy at what price.  Vegas comes to me and says..."will you buy this for this?"  I either say "holy crap what a bargain" or "get that overpriced crap out of here".

I learned this very valuable lesson from a great capper. Humble, modest and had the sharpest eye for an out of whack number I've ever seen.  He may no longer be physically with us but he's on this board every day as I share his insights, values and betting philosophies with those that chose to learn...not those that scroll past "the words" looking for the lock.  Man, what a great guy and I hope I am half the capper he was.

Thank you for your kind words Flippa.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 12:41AM

This is slowly and surely becoming the POD on this thread.  I aven't locked in full unit yet.  I may sleep on this and watch what the 'sharps' do.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 12:51AM
back at ya chase
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:10AM
chase, the more i look at everything else, the more i'm thinking this may be my only play tomorrow.  i'm not really worried since it's an early game...if something else moves showing value, i may just jump on it
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:58AM

How you feeling about the total in this game...Can ATL hold NOH under 90?

GL with your card 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:05AM
Before I retire for the evening...let me run this by you regulars

how do you feel about me taking this out of this forum and going with the blog?  The popularity of the thread is a sure magnet for @$$HOLES with absolutely nothing to offer.  They'll have a pair of brass ones since there's no accountability online.  My avatar isn't just a picture, I'm a real fuck1n jarhead and can't stand pieces of sh1t that have alot to say because there's no threat of getting their clocks cleaned.

with the blog, we can still exchagne ideas but i have the option to delete some of the pure crap.

thoughts???
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:15AM


wala ako
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:50AM

Thanks pal...I was wondering when you were going to make it to my thread.  Our lines of communications are open now...I'll be emailing you that stuff tomorrow.

Let us know what you like about those games...I know there are a few guys here that really like that LAL/POR matchup.  I'm glad it's a late game because I can play the waiting game.  As I'm watching the number move on that...I think it was proguy that called it...those lakeshow fans are hitting the over early...

as for hockey...you're not going to believe this but ...as you know, hockey starts before the NBA so as I wait for the stats to come in for the NBA, in the mean time, I only bet hockey.  I actually have a "system" for the NHL and very different from the 'routine' I have for the NBA.  I was hitting about 70% on hockey before I moved my action to the NBA.  Why move?? because I don't know jack about the NHL...I bet a 'system' that someone taught me.  I shared this with a friend and we made a killing the first 2 months of the NHL.  i don't think i'll ever really be an NHL capper since it's the same season as the NBA (a sport I understand very well).  I'm willing to learn though if you have something to throw my way.

BTW, welcome aboard, glad to have you sir. 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:23AM

thanks yoyo...i can thell you i capped this game @188...

with that said, I can tell you with a lot of certainty I will not be playing the under in this game.

nice day today btw...keep it hot!  
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:26AM

that word is about as dirty as the 'O' word...I think you know me better than that PnP.  I absoulutely despise those people.  I give you my word, on my honor as a United States Marine that I will never go tout.


axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:42AM
interesting turn

5Dimes

3/8/2009 20:34

3/9/2009 1:44

3/9/2009 2:24

Over/Under (Total)
189 -110 (Open)
188.5 -110
189 -110

 

axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:44AM
format was off

5Dimes

Over/Under (Total)
3/8/2009 20:34 189 -110 (Open)
3/9/2009 1:44 188.5 -110
3/9/2009 2:24 189 -110

axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:08AM

add me as a friend and we'll talk nhl that way...don't want to clog this with nhl talk...thanks
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:49AM

no offense taken my friend. 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:32AM
Ok fellas, Just caught up...I'll keep the thread in the forum...thank you for the responses from the regulars and the background support people.  Hey, I don't mind if you guys just read and tail, you guys aint the problem.  It's the smart asses I can't stand, that's why I left covers a few years ago (another handle) and that's why I left madjacks to come back here.

just one more note to PnP...There's no way I can go tout...I actually know what I'm doing...ZING!!!

Ok...back to work...first thing first.  I see alot of people on the ORL/DET under...I ran some numbers and I'm not seeing it...I think I told yoyo last night that I capped this @188... I see Hank even has this higher @194...be careful guys, just be careful...I won't play this game but I'm going to cap the hell out of it to give you guys some comfort.


axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:36AM

New Orleans at Atlanta-182
Orlando at Detroit-188
Chicago at Miami-202
Washington at Minnesota-192
Houston at Denver-195
L.A. Lakers at Portland-200

Hank, according to this...we have a play for LAL/POR...I know there's been some noise for this game...Let's hear it from the pros out there...Chump?  Turc?  

If I recall correctly...Turc might have mentioned this game...

axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:40AM

Will do sir...the first thing I noticed about the CHI/MIA matchup are the recent performances.  the NBA has been scoring about 1.5 points more accross the board lately.  On top of that...these two teams in their last 5 have been killing that number...MIA alone in the last 5...110 for...110 against...OUCH

I'm going to dig deeper and trend this game...will get back with my findings

axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:43AM

LOL...the guy that taught me how to cap was obviously Pinoy...the whole damn country gambles I swear...

back to work...wacha got for me on the west coast...are you feeling this LAL/POR under?
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:45AM

LMAO...get that keyboard fixed deezy!
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:52AM

You playing the whole card mayor?
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:54AM

Thank you pal...hey how are you liking bookmaker?  I heard they have some new programs...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:56AM

Welcome...you are on the money...I do not give out picks...we just pick one or two together.  It works great.  Thank you for your kind words. 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 11:20AM

Philip_Rivers

bacolod, negros occidental
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 12:05PM

Thank you sir.  there are some very good cappers here that offer their insight.  you are always welcome here and i'm sure your country is very thankful for your service. 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 12:08PM
 
Love it, love it...I know that the LakeShow understands that if they are to win this year against the Cavs or  the C's, they'll have play D.  I'm starting to like this play...waiting to hear from the experts in here...salamat Philip_Rivers
akison03 says:
03/09/09 01:02AM
help me with my picks
akison03 says:
03/09/09 01:42AM
Nba picks for today give one solid play for nba monday
Crockie says:
03/09/09 08:56AM


Like these plays But not sure about the Wash/Min under. I think both teams will hit more than 100 points
lts41 says:
03/09/09 02:05AM
GL bro
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/09/09 02:23AM
Ax, as long as you don't go tout on us, I'm cool with any communication medium you choose! BOL tmr
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/09/09 02:45AM
Ax, I apologize if my previous message came out sounding wrong. You are probably the only capper here that seriously takes into account what other posters' perspectives are and factors that into your decision making. Your affability is arguably more impressive than your capping ability, and for that, I commend you sir.
canuckfan77 says:
03/09/09 01:33AM
Bol Ax, I've been taking a look at the Bulls/Heat and the Lakers/Blazers games too.

Hey, you ever bet Hockey?
Laostar says:
03/09/09 11:45AM
minnesota..over..202
verdeaccord says:
03/09/09 02:05AM
hey if you dont mind me asking what exactly is your NHL system? and your NBA capping is great keep up the good work and i am new and dont post much but i do read just about everyones and you put out great information thanks
Philip_Rivers says:
03/09/09 02:22AM

Dude...you pinoy? or you know tagalog?

Anyways, I thought I read that you like picking baseball too.  That's cool man. Can't wait for the season to start.
Philip_Rivers says:
03/09/09 12:00PM
On the Laker game:  The Lakers haven't won in Portland since Feb. 23, 2005 when they won 86-83.  Talking to the Laker fans out here, it seems they want to buck this trend and the only way to win tonite is to D up.  I'll take a listen to the local sports talk radio today and let you know if I hear anything interesting.
Philip_Rivers says:
03/09/09 11:27AM

Nice man....my family is from Olongapo.
surviveandwin says:
03/09/09 03:46AM
Dude, Don't throw us to the wolves.....There are I guess alot like me that have little to offer and sit in the background and use your skills to beat the bookiesWe will be forever gratefulAnd also as a man of honor (NZ Military still in 21yrs - SERE) I respect your honest comments. I would hope that the idiots out there don't ruin forums like this as it makes it much more insiteful and for novices like me it increases the odds but even better - that love to win money and beat the bookie Thanks and keep up the great work.
greenfield says:
03/09/09 12:19PM
KnightofSorrow says:
03/09/09 09:27PM
another great day
highside107 says:
03/09/09 06:23PM

Yep, I think the closer we wait til gametime, the higher the number will go... which is good for us "under" backers
highside107 says:
03/09/09 03:17PM

I think we could wait til closer to game time and it go up at least half a point. Wagerline is showing 77.4% on the over right now.
corndogking says:
03/09/09 09:09PM
chicken dinner

 

ax, again....

 

you_are_the_man

grindstone says:
03/09/09 09:20PM
CONGRATS   will you play the under in the LAL/Port game. Here is the lastest numbers

 

LAL/Port 202

 

Over 78%

under 22%

grindstone says:
03/09/09 05:51PM
Here are the lastest % boys

 

LAL/Port       80% over

202               20% under

 

ATL/NO        52% over

  188            48% under 

 

LAL line drops and public is all over the over , Vegas not adjusting the line therefore under is the play.

grindstone says:
03/09/09 01:56PM
Hey Ax would it be OK to get that info for your NHL system, being from Canada I'm a big Hockey Fan. Thanks in advance. I was also wondering do you guys just do totals are also discuss sides?

 

grindstone says:
03/09/09 02:05PM
As we speak here is the lastest %

 

LA/ Port        Open 203.5     current 202

 82% over

18 % under

 

Atl/NO            Open  189     current 188   

62% under

38% over

 

Hope this helps

HoldenRg says:
03/09/09 06:56PM
 I like your style ax PEACE!
UNDERdogin says:
03/09/09 04:51PM
I'll be playing the lakeshow under until the bench starts hitting shots,

 

chump says:
03/09/09 04:41PM
I spent some time trying to find out why the Chicago / Miami number is dropping but came up with nothing intelligent to report ... I just locked into three plays for tonight ...

 

NO / Atlanta under 188

Chicago / Miami under 203

LA / Portland under 202 1/2

 

Also made a play on the Cubs at 125 ... also played the Cubs for 8 in a row in the Survivor Pool ... will also give me 8 and 1 for March contest !!!

 

It's Monday ... take a shot day !!!!!!!!!!!!   Good Luck to all !!!

chump says:
03/09/09 09:26PM
Hmmm ... Santa Clause just  called me and said there is a present waiting for us tomorrow ...................................

 

NY - Milw   just came out at 222  

chump says:
03/09/09 02:14PM
Hmmm ... after deep review the Chicago game is a NO PLAY for me ... you're right AX ... all recent numbers trend against an under play here !!!

 

BUT ... a close friend of mine in Vegas told me this morning that this was the "play of the day" and sure enough the number went from 205 to 202 1/2 presently ... I don't see it - do you ???

chump says:
03/09/09 02:39PM

He's an old-timer like me ... lol ... he sits and reads the Racing Form in the horse racing / sports book at the Hiton every morning by the "big ticket" window and listens ... I'll make a couple phone calls -- I suspect someone is not playing tonight and we don't know about it yet ... stay tuned.

insatiable says:
03/09/09 06:44PM
keep up the good work buddy. BOL
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/09/09 04:41PM
yeah they win more often then people think............
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/09/09 04:30PM
Yeah man I agree, its always nice to work and make an educated decision then find out the public is against you.............hehe, sucks when you make a great pick and 97% of the public is with you......then its not exactly a nice feeling...........

 

BOL

Bruuuuce78 says:
03/09/09 03:58PM
Hey, I love the idea of hunting down the under............thats all I do also, I play some over but 80% of the time its unders...........The reason I'm playing the under to the Houston/Denver game is this............last 6 games Denver has played vs above average opponents 192 was the average total.............last 6 games Houston played vs above average opponents the total averaged 189 and that includes a game of 228 vs phoenix which is slightly blowing this average out of proportion.  So I have this game capped at like 187..............I don't think there is anyway this one hits 200..........
madashman says:
03/09/09 09:29PM
Thanks for the great picks guys.  Keep them coming.
dc254803 says:
03/09/09 12:09PM
VALUE = Houston ML
Denver = gives up leads, doesnt play D, and can go cold anytime with there jump shooting mentality
jclao168 says:
03/09/09 07:57PM
BOL ax !    O mag beer muna tayo. Cheers !         
Deezy135 says:
03/09/09 05:32PM
y0u think im g00na dr0p my cpu 0ff and miss y0u guys f0r a day 0r 2 N0 WAYYYYYY!!!!!!!! maybe play0ffs th0ugh.
Chooch77 says:
03/09/09 04:07PM
No problem buddy..Have to wait for the local to put the number out at 530.  188 or better and im buying.
Chooch77 says:
03/09/09 03:56PM
Hey Ax, another beautiful pick yesterday!

 

Here are some trends I found on NO game

 

NO, under is 9-3-2 in their last 14 Monday games, but the over is on runs of 9-3 as a favorite, 8-3 after getting a day off and 4-1-1 on the road. The Hawks have stayed under the total in five of seven at home, six of eight against teams with winning records and four straight on Mondays. In this series, the under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta.

LTE23 says:
03/09/09 04:01PM
AX not to good on those Total. I just know that ATL plays a Tight D in the 2nd half at home. They did it to Lebron and Co. Beat Det. Now have a team like NO coming after a Back to Back...maybe some tired Legs? Either Way I stuck with those picks...Update

+2 DET
+1.5 ATL

My bounus game is +2.5 Port.

small play on a 3 Teamer....Monday Are usually the Day I like to start rolling then I can Hang out for a couple of days then Get Back in it. GL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:43PM

I know, I know...bruce had me re-thinking this game...Maybe I stopped capping this game too soon...hey, it's another one to consider right?   
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:46PM

Thank you sir for sharing...I have a good feeling on 1 & 3 and will likely tail #2 just because I trust you and your vegas guy...good luck with the Cubbies and the rest of your card pal.  
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:55PM

"UNDER" dogin...I think that says it all.  GL bro
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:33PM
Don't I know that feeling...I start doubting when the public sides with me but hey, they win too...right?  BOL tonight
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 05:02PM

That's the goal...I think I started playing with house money by december....hmmm, can't remember...there's plenty games left in the NBA...but it's a marathon...one dime at a time...GL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 05:05PM

Thanks, have you tracked this at all?  I have no idea how this has done...I've never used it.  It's simulations right?  I wonder if anyone has backtracked this against the closing numbers...I'm just curious.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 05:10PM
dinner time...brb...dogs calling...Monday is martial arts night.  should be home right before the LakeShow take the floor at the Rose.  Will post my POD shortly but for all you guys that's been following this thread, I think you already know..
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:03PM

Nice chooch, thansk man.  What's your read on this game?...you feel comfortable with the under...you did make some good points with those over runs...I actually saw those same trends...are you locked in?
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 06:18PM
oh yeah...down 3 points to 202...interesting...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 05:45PM

how do i ban?  this is the stuff i wish i could delete
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 05:56PM
It's gone...wow, that was quick...

ok peeps posted POD on WBA's thread

[502] TOTAL u189-110 
(NEW ORLEANS vrs ATLANTA)

BOLTA 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 05:58PM

Thanks for the update, this is going to be a last minute play for me.  GL to everyone on the LAL/POR under 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 06:02PM
Did you guys catch Chump's POD?  If he's on to something, it's worth a look...Chicago at Miami Under

That damn number dropped like a pair of underpants on prom night.  This is a straight tail for me at 1/4U.


axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 06:25PM

this game has no value under 188...you're better off playing some of the more popular picks on this thread.  
my card only has the NOH/ATL game.  I have that straight tail based on Chump's inside info from his guy in Vegas (CHI/MIA u), Turc and many others like the u with LAL/POR.  There's also quite a few on the HOU/DEN u tonight.  

BOL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 06:25PM

This is good news Crockie!
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 06:07PM

Doesn't your local use Herald lines???  I think you can still get that @ 188 if not 189.  GL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:57PM

No question is stupid...welcome BTW...

yeah, check out my capping notes on the CHI/MIA game posted earlier today...you'll find my stats breakdown there...also, hit my space and look for any of my threads.  When I post my capping notes, I usually explain a little bit about the statistical analysis I do.  GL pal...let me know if I can clarify some stuff but via PM...don't want to clog this capping thread...Thanks bro..
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:50PM

bet against LAL on this coming road trip and use some sort of Matingale Money Management system to figure out what your next bet is until you WIN (Lakers don't cover)  When you win...you stop and move on...don't get greedy...for example, if you fade the LakeShow tonight and win...move on...take your money and move on...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:52PM

yeah...I had leans on PHI/OKC and DEN/SAC last night...laid off both...would have ended up paying the juice...No play is sometimes the best play...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:40PM

Nice........

this is good stuff, article was right on...

my thoughts...this is a great spot to fade and chase LAL...with all these road games coming up...I know chase players are licking their chops...and this aint going to be one of those trips through the East either...any chase players out thre.  Fade the LakeShow and cash in...if not today...within the next few days or week.  I don't chase but tought it was worth a mention.

Thanks for the scoop PR...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:43PM

LOL...funny how some still manage to sneak that word in here once in a while...mostly those new to this thread...I gather you locked the NOH/ATL play...I like it much...still waiting on Vegas inside info from Chump...If he has a good scoop, I may just blindly play a small amount...GL pal 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:20PM

Interesting movement on this number....76% of the public is on the over but the number is inching down...you might be on to something bruce...gotta love fading the public...

my only concern with fading the public is that it's Monday...this is going to sound crazy but i think there are square gifts early in the week and by the weekend, that's when the books get it all back and then some...I'm just paranoid like that...LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:23PM

I agree with you here jlipps and if anyone says 66%...wouldn't you jump on that percentage...good call. 
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:26PM

No problem brother...there are plenty of totals guys here...I wish you the BOL with your card tonight.   I'm not much of a sides capper.  
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:29PM

I know you preach this all the time...does this make WAS/MIN a lock for, dare I say...O...

those teams are god awful...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 04:00PM

I know...I watched that thing go from 204 to 201 around 11 this morning.  Thanks for this jlipp...I know turc is on this play also...will have to wait til tipoff and hope for that hook...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:26PM

damn kids are paying majong before they can even read!  LMAO...serious, they can't read yet but point to a tile and they'll tell you "west","four"...

LAL/POR under...starting to look that way...

Now I'm curious if the POD has shifted form NOH/ATL to LAL/POR...lots of people are loving the latter...well not really since 82% of the public is on the over...LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:31PM

Oh man...Chump...after you mentioned this to me this morning, I've been trying to wrap my head around the under.  I know some sharp money is on this but I'm not seeing that from anything I've looked at.  I wish I knew what that inside info was.  If this is the POD for the big boys, I need to find out.  Did he happen to say why?  Thanks for this pal..
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:03PM

I have no action on that my friend so I wish you well!    
I know Mad_S...we indeed had a nice little secret society where we were cashing in regularly.  You were there from the start...collecting next to me at the window...LOL...we've been exposed brother...One great thing that's come out of this...we have some real talent and sources here.  You for example is the Props master .  I know you're busy bustin books all over the soviet bloc but stop in once in a while when you have some good info.  Thanks brother, good to see you.  BOL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:09PM

that NOH/ATL matchup is the only one I've locked and loaded...loved it from the minute I saw it...You're holding the right ticket pal...I personally don't go big or small, I have One unit plays since NO one game is worth more than any others.  

i see guys go 3-1...should be a great night right?  except they bet $100 each on the three they won and lost $1000 on that lock of the year.  That's just my money managment philosophy...I know, people will say well, I'm so sure about this game...trust me...you're guessing like the rest of us...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:10PM

BTW...sorry for being rude but I forgot...Welcome aboard...glad to have you!  
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:17PM

Thanks brother...damn, you caught me off guard...hey, nothing wrong with changing you mind...did you actually buy your bet back and eat the juice?  We'll get it back bro...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:25PM

yeah man, that was going to be my original plan anyway but I was hoping it was going to be 205 by tip-off but now I''m hoping for the hook on 202...it's a cruel joke these books play on us...as of an hour ago, the public is still on the over @202 (-110)...with even money on the under.  Thanks pal.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:14PM

Thanks Jlipp...I'm feeling like I missed the boat on this one since this number headed south fast since mid morning...still value @202?...oh man, I feel like someone just kicked my dog
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 03:33PM

I bet they ain't loving you so much....
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:52PM

HOU/DEN

I won't go through the details since you guys know by now

the three stats categories I use.

190-197 (more on the high end)

194-202 (more on the high end)

180-192 (more on the high end)

With the current number @198...it's easy to see why I won't

play this

Trending

3 meetings and 3-0 for the OVER...average line 195.5 and

covers by whopping 14.5

Damn...makes me want to play the over...LOL

DEN at home in 2009 O/U 7-8

And with no rest at home in 2009 1-2 (last 2 going under)

HOU on the road in 2009 O/U 6-7

And playing on the road, a team with no rest 2-1

Just a small sample but enough to let me no there is no

reason to cap this anymore.  Just too

many things going in different directions.

 

axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:16PM

sure, I think we're already friends right?  send me a quick reminder and we'll talk NHL but not here...

Yeah this thread, as crazy as it sounds, is really looking for unders value...I personally think this is where the house has the smallest advantage since we know how crazy the public is on overs...and the sides...I have no clue how to begin capping that.  LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:22PM

thanks...

CRAP when did the public go under on the NOH/ATL game...this was 60/40 Over this morning...

liking the public on the over in LAL/POR tough...keeping my fingers crossed that they keep moving this up...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:07PM

Excellent sir.  I like this argument for the under...There's a point when the Lakers will have to slow their game down...I can't stop thinking about PHO...they thought they were going to be a better team by going back to run-and-gun...Defense wins championships...Yes, the Lake show rolled through the two C's...Celts and Cavs...try that for seven games without playing a lick of D...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:13PM

Haven't seen you in a while U.S.  

As of around 1:30pm  188 (-109)...still dropping little by little...this is absolutely minimum value for me tough.  If it goes to 187...I'm out

I think were slowly coming together on an Under play for LAL/POR...I'll post my HOU/DEN capping notes in a bit.  

Good to see you back pal!  GL
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 02:02PM

CHI/MIA capping notes

Stats-

Teams play as expected on neutral court (regression

analysis)

192-198

Away and home performances weighted and home team dictates

(geometric mean and weighted averaging)

193-197

What have you done for me lately (exponential smoothing)

209-219

This is where this whole thing is thrown off.  Both of these teams are scoring 100+ for and

100+ against.  With the number @202,

that's a very small cushion if both score 100 each.  That’s less than a one-possession cushion for

those crazy things that happen at the end of NBA games.

Trending

Both meetings and neither score 100

The O/U is 10-5-1 when MIA is at home in 2009

Since Feb 1, O/U is 7-1-1

Bulls on the road in 2009 O/U 9-6

Since Feb 1, O/U 5-3

It's numbers like these that make me say...stay

away...that's just me though...

axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:11PM
this looks like it's going to keep moving down even though the public is on the over 60-40

03/09 12:55pm NOR/ATL Over 188-103 Under 188 -107

the value window is slowly closing on this.  I'm not going to buy anymore personally.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:13PM

thanks ace...we'll keep i here and I'll just have to take deep breaths once in a while...LOL...thanks for you email too pal.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:15PM

Thanks flippa, I made a little...very little on the NFL...I switched my NFL 'routine' this year and learned alot.  I'm lookin forward to next season.  Got plenty of NBA left to make some $$$.  
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:29PM

Thanks Turc, i'm liking this play more and more...also have to look at the last COMMON team both have played.  gotta watch this line closely...
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:32PM

lots of capper on the under here but i'm not entirely sold...when I have this much doubt, it's a NO PLAY for me...but hey, there are great minds here that love this play.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:33PM
CROCKIE

why did you change your POD???  Bro, share....you must have some inside info????
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:22PM

Please keep moving up...public...keep moving this so I can get even more value.
axpiota59 says:
03/09/09 01:42PM

Welcome and thank you...one small things since you are new...we don't do "overs" in this thread.  No logic, no reason...it's just what we do here...It doesn't make sense to many people but we only cash in on the unders...sounds silly doesn't it?  LOL

GL tonight!  
justwin007 says:
03/09/09 01:35PM
 hey, new to this tread, just wanna chim in on the Hou/Den gm tonite.......I like the Over on this one at 198.5

first meeting totaling 198, second meeting 204 and the most

recent totaling over 228, just keep this one in mind later tonite! 

justwin007 says:
03/09/09 01:51PM
Ill keep that in mind, thanks Ax

 

SlicerDicer says:
03/09/09 04:57PM
For anyone interested Accuscore projected totals for tonight's games:

 

No/Atl  187.1

Orl/Det 183

Mia/Chi 200.5

Mn/Wash 201.7

Den/Hous 201.3

LAL/Port 201.9

jlippens says:
03/09/09 04:02PM
Also, general rule: two elite teams = under. Especially with the number as high as this. And Portland being a slowdown team.

The more I think about this the more I like it.
jlippens says:
03/09/09 03:02PM


Steve Merril, a tout (I know, a dirty word!) who is worth respecting, likes the UNDER in the LAL/POR game. So an additional opinion which likes that play.
jlippens says:
03/09/09 04:00PM
The reason the number is high (I am assuming) is because it's expected that this game is competitive. Now, will that mean the Lakers playing down to the high 80's-90's, or Portland getting to the century mark with the Lakers... I'd be inclined to say the earlier.

Or the number could be off and it could be a blowout. But it won't be a high enough scoring blowout for a blowout win to go OVER--not with the pace Portland plays. This gives us two of three possible positive results.
jlippens says:
03/09/09 03:54PM


Yes, the lack of the number moving north is mitigated by the fact that sharp money is pounding this number hard. Given the recent history of matchups, I think there's still plenty of value at this number.

01/04/09

LAL 100

-

POR 86 (199.5)
10/28/08

LAL 96

-

POR 76 (194.5)

vegasace99 says:
03/09/09 12:36PM
Hey Ax, just gettin in the forum here didnt see your post til now about whether to post in here or not. Youve already made ur decision but i think the blog is a good idea. u can delete as u mentioned, and between all of us monitoring the site we can invite others into the blog as needed so as we dont miss any of their potentially valuable info. anyhow BOL and lets get 'em!!
Mad_Skillz123 says:
03/09/09 02:56PM
MIAMI - CHICAGO: i bought it @205.5....under ofc...im maybe jumping in cold water but its ok

gl Ax, greay thread!!!

ps. do you remember some time ago, @ your thread only several of us discussed the totals and values...omg look now great thread indeed buddy....great inside infos, great cappers...great guys


GL TO ALL!!!!
Mad_Skillz123 says:
03/09/09 03:28PM
got LAL U205.5 also  i love my bookies LOL
Crockie says:
03/09/09 03:10PM


No inside infos Ax but not a good feeling about this. Look at the last 15 games between Orlando and Detroit. Orlando has only won 1 game of these! The Pistons have won both matchups in the season series. Orlando is this season as strong as they haven't been a long time. Now they are strong enough to beat the Pistons at home. They will do everything for this. The Pistons have speed up the game a little like vs. Boston or Denver. Yesterday against the Celtics the Magic had a bad game. I don't think that they will repeat this. Orlando will kill the Pistons with their 3pts.I think it'll be a very close game and perhaps the fts will kill the total. Perhaps it'll go in overtime. I'm still for the under at this game. I think the NO/Atlanta will be the better play. They will score ~ 180 points.
Crockie says:
03/09/09 03:45PM


No I did't buy it. I was thinking about it... But I think it's better not to be on it! I was leaning to the under @ Denver - Sacramento when the total was at 214.5. Good I didn't take it!
Crockie says:
03/09/09 12:33PM
Over 75% are on Lakers/Trailblazers over and the line moved from 203.5 to 202
Crockie says:
03/09/09 04:33PM


yes that's right but good i took the under at the second half of phi/okc & mem/hou
Crockie says:
03/09/09 05:00PM


oh sorry didn't see that. yes i think it has to get a chance. perhaps i'll play more games today i thought before
Crockie says:
03/09/09 04:38PM
The under @ Hou/Den is more interesting than I thougt:

  • Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.

    • Rockets 5th game in the last 7 days and they are back2back. Nuggets are also back2back.

    Crockie says:
    03/09/09 06:20PM
    Lakers total line is moving up now at my book ^^
    BlueKoala says:
    03/09/09 05:36PM
    exactly... home team is SUPOSSE to dictate play, so tendancy should be SLOW paced game.  My gut says the dog RUNS tonight.  I could be wrong, but like Ax says... the cushion is too small with less than a 1 possession game this is a now a NO play for me!

     

    Good luck to everyone!

    BlueKoala says:
    03/09/09 05:21PM
    Thanks Turc,

     

    I'm in the same boat too...

     

    BUT something in my guts just doesn't sit right with this game.  Am I just be paranoid, overthinking things???

    BlueKoala says:
    03/09/09 01:50PM
    Lakers / Trailblazers.

     

    The more I look at this game the more it looks appealing for the UNDER.  I agree with you and others on here that the Lakers need to be more of a defensive team in order to succeed this year and with the slower pace of play that Portland uses, this just might be the perferct spot for LA to impliment this defensive philosophy.  Although we all know that the Lakeshow can put up some numbers, but with Houston and SAS on deck, I'm thinking possibly they grind more so than run & gun, keepingplayer "fresh" for the final games going into the playoffs!      Opinions & Thoughts guys...???

     

    bostonsbetter says:
    03/09/09 06:02PM
    Hey ax,

     

    Just wanted to say what you and Turc are doing lately has been amazing!

     

    I like the under pick on the atl game... unfortunately I go through a local and he doesnt open until 6:30 pm so its not going to have any value as the lines gonna hit rock bottom...

     

    Have you finished your card yet?

    bostonsbetter says:
    03/09/09 06:18PM

    Sometimes but not usually... Most of the time he goes with the line movement

    FlippaCoin says:
    03/09/09 12:42PM

    maybe the keyboard is good luck for him. 

    I obstained from betting for 8.5 years.  Had a nice bankroll from NFL, thought I was a hot tamale and lost it all and then some on NBA.  Started playing again this year. I'm technically a novice too with very little knowledge of good value play.  Therefore great cappers, like yourself, are a blessing.

    JCWhy83 says:
    03/09/09 03:33PM
    Ax, Nice to see you on the Hornets/Hawks game. Also glad to see you not on the Magic/Pistons because I like this one to go the word you don't speak of
    UnkleSam says:
    03/09/09 01:52PM
    Ax my friend, good to see you still rolling in the hoops forum. Glad you decided to continue posting threads, I check your group of talents plays regularly. A move to the blogs makes sense to weed out the bull, just as long as I can find you!!

     

    On to the numbers, like the Atl under but can see this number dropping further and wondered where it loses value.

     

    Also was wondering the input you had on the Rockets number. Love their defense combined with the fact both these teams didn't really get a chance to rest last night as was expected (since Denver decided to get eaten alive by a poor team, and Hou let Memphis stick around).

     

    Thinking LAL has a lot of value considering the public % and the movement. Just was lookiing for an update and where things are headed. Thanks, and as always GL regardless

     

    gltom says:
    03/09/09 02:24PM
    Ax thanks for all the great insight. U are great asset too this site! I sent u a request too add me as a friend.Good luck!
    Martindc15e says:
    03/09/09 12:57PM
    Ax noypi ka pala... great job bro. I'll be tailing you. From Cavite...
    KingKobe says:
    03/09/09 03:47PM
    Hi Ax,

     

    I am very new to this... i've been reading your tread since last week and appreciate the hard work you put in.  Thank You.

     

    I have a stupid question.  Do you mind sharing the three stats categories that you use again?

    KingKobe says:
    03/09/09 04:01PM

    thanks AX!

    verdeaccord says:
    03/09/09 01:20PM
    hey was just wondering your thoughts on the det/orl under/over?
    Flipside715 says:
    03/09/09 02:07PM


    filipinos are gambling fiends bro...it's in my blood haha...out of all the games most confident in that portland/lakers under too...And im in favor of the blog too  GL guys
    Philip_Rivers says:
    03/09/09 03:44PM
    Sorry Ax...but forgive me for asking.  What does it mean to "fade and chase"?  I'm still trying to get the lingo down...but I have learned a lot this week from your posts.
    Philip_Rivers says:
    03/09/09 03:33PM
    Sorry for the mis information guys...I checked and Roy DID NOT SCORE 50+ vs. Kobe.  I thought that was wierd when I heard it on the radio.  I checked the last game they played at the Roase Garden and Roy did score 20+, but not 50.  Sorry boys.  Still think Kobe will be committed to locking down B. Roy.
    Philip_Rivers says:
    03/09/09 03:27PM
    Some points about the Laker game:

     

    (1)  The Lake Show has big time revenge on their minds (haven't won their sine 2005).  Just read this article....this game is definately on their minds: http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-lakers9-2009mar09,0,1240427.story.

     

    (2)  Last time Lakers played at the Rose Garden, Roy went off for 50 pts with Kobe guarding him.  Do you actually think, Kobe will let this happen to him again?

     

    (3)  Lakers play at Houston and San Antonio next and will want start this road trip on a winning note.

     

    (4)  DEFENSE...DEFENSE....DEFENSE. Plus an effort to slow down the game is what I heard this morning on sports talk.

     

    (5)  No Oden tonite as well..(For whatever that's worth).

     

     

    ILOVE2BETCASH says:
    03/09/09 03:01PM
    AX- I have been following along the last few days and finally registered to I can join in. Your picks have been great. Question - I went big with the NOR/ATL under... seems like you might be leaning away from that and maybe towards Lakers now?

     

    I got the Nor under at 189. You still like this play??

     

    Im also on the edge of my seat waiting to see what Chump has for us about the Lakers under... it is strange to see 82% on the over and it move down 3 points....

    ILOVE2BETCASH says:
    03/09/09 04:56PM

     

    Watch out for Mbenga haha ... im with you on the Lakers Under...

    People here seem to be very big on Lakers, Hornets, Houston under... i also parlayed them....

    Lets start the week off big!

    Would like to play with house money this week instead of trying to dig out of my hole all week

    masterkush says:
    03/09/09 10:48PM

    No No No    .....    Thankyou Ax and everyone else who contributed to this thread.
    chump says:
    03/09/09 10:02PM

    chump says:
    03/09/09 09:41PM
    AX ... go look at the Monthly Survivor contest ... know anybody in the top 10 ???
    chump says:
    03/09/09 09:52PM

    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:49PM

    I just saw the score...damn, that covered by 20...we done good.  you're looking good on your live action...GL
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:49PM

    we all will pal...we all will 
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:46PM

    and you know what's really funny...you got to 8-1 with a damn spring training game...oh Chump...share the secret pal...I need to know the secret!...

    Congrats buddy 
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:32PM

    very interesting...I had a guy jbrill email that to me @ 7 this evening...and he's asking me for advice...LOL, the kid's got a good eye...

    I thought Christmas was 3 months ago...hmmm don't tell Vegas.
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:33PM
     

    Thank yo sir...I try to be me...and no one else
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:34PM

    thank you kindly!
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:35PM

    Just got home...I think we're collecting again?
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:36PM

    Couldn't tell ya the final score...was busy getting my butt kicked in class...but I will assume it was WAY under.
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:37PM

    I'm going to sit this one out...already been to the window and looks like there's plenty of value on the board tomorrow...hmmm, I got 25 minutes....we'll see...I just got home and have to settle in...
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:38PM
    indeed...thanks to the great cappers on this thread! 
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 09:39PM

    agreed...what a great bunch we have here.  
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 10:14PM

    Anytime pal...and you know what...I'm going to make it my mission to give away a many free winner as I possibly can to put these "expert cappers" out of business.  I read a thread last night that broke my freakin heart from aselsan(?).  why the F would you buy picks when you got so many damn great cappers on covers?  some people think because we don't charge means we don't know what we're doing.  I pray for that guy...

    well, let cash in again tomorrow pal  
    axpiota59 says:
    03/09/09 10:22PM
    well, as you can tell I laid off the late game...I wasn't feeling it plus I'm tired and thought my energy would be better spent on capping tomorrow's board...Another great day of work fellas.  

    Thank you to everyone...Thank you. 
    axpiota59 says:
    03/10/09 01:05AM
    Ok, gonna wrap this thread up and put it away...

    POD - NOH/ATL easy winner

    other 2 concensus picks from the great cappers on this thread

    HOU/DEN hit
    LAL/POR miss 

    not a bad day of work guys...
    JpNetworks99 says:
    03/09/09 09:42PM
    Nice so your the totals man !!

     

    I played your play with OV HEAT

     

     

                                                                Thanks

    Pick-N-Pop says:
    03/09/09 09:56PM
    Ax, awesome as usual! Thank again for another winner!
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    User: axpiota59
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