axpiota59's Blog

NBA SUN 031509 early thoughts - value hunting

By axpiota59 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, March 14, 2009 12:07 PM   521 comments

The Ides of March is upon us and Sunday is a perfect day to celebrate the roots of our passion tracing back to the times when real warriors battled to their deaths at The Colosseum.  We no longer wager goats and other livestock on the outcome of death matches but we carry on the tradition proudly.  On this day 2053 years ago, the mighty Caesar met his fate.  Today, we have come a long way from the men of steel drawing blood to men in shorts bouncing a ball and attempting to place it through a cylindrical piece of iron.

With that...I'm pre-capping Sundays games since Saturday's board looks like crap.  I have a buy-in number I want to run by some of you cappers out there.  Any chance Indiana at Toronto opens @218?  

11 games on the board tomorrow and I'll update this as I think there may be some value for us.

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vegasace99 says:
03/14/09 12:08PM
love the intro!!....gl today Ax....
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 12:10PM

Got your PM bro...will do!!!
proguy747 says:
03/14/09 12:39PM
The craptors are due for an under and a win ats. toronto will come out around 213 that is my guess.
proguy747 says:
03/14/09 12:40PM
utah under pick does show some promise. Both teams with 2 days rest come out slow.
fatdan215 says:
03/14/09 01:25PM
Ax whats your pick Bro....my fault if you took that game yesterday Brotha...turned out the wrong way....and i want to thank you for that Atl under game i tailed you all the way on that....BOL BRO
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 01:32PM

No problem brother...I don't blame any of my action on anyone.  If I lose a game, it's because I played it.  I'm glad we got to cash in on that ATL game...I like games like that...winner all the way.  Good luck with you card today pal.  
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 01:35PM

I played the UTA/MIA under posted on my blog...strictly for action...I get that way sometimes Turc.  Better to address the problem head on than keep it bottled up inside.  It's a battle everyday when you're a gambler, it's the ones that keep it under control that turn a profit...I've been very good this season...only a few out of control days...BOL with you plays tonight Turc...they look solid!  
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 01:56PM
MM,

I see the Clips scoring mid 90's TOPS...the problem is what will DEN go off for?  If Denver goes for 110, your action is already shot.  Add the potential gabage at the end of every NBA game and this becomes a very TIGHT number...IMHO.  GL bro...I'm not going to force anything today for full Units.  It may be an action Saturday for me at 1/20U, just like throwing money away at the  but enjoying the food and drinks.

BOL
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 01:57PM

Hank, it looks like you have company...MM was saying the same thing...
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 01:58PM
Guys...this is for Sunday's board....
Crockie says:
03/14/09 02:33PM
Atlanta-Portland / Detroit-Memphis / Milwaukee-Boston

waiting for the lines. perhaps one of them looks good for an under
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 02:37PM
Reading my mind on the POR/ATL game Crockie.  If this was in POR, we'd have a great chance of seeing 190 but it looks like it's going to be significantly lower in ATL.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for 190 but this one's is going to open in the mid 180's or a little higher which means I'm probably not buying.
BOOGIEMAN80 says:
03/14/09 02:39PM
keep doing your thing bro!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Crockie says:
03/14/09 02:44PM


Would be great if it opens @ 190. But I don't think so. Like you said: 180-185
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 02:44PM
MEM/DET is also another good one to keep an eyeball on.  I'm in fantasy world if I think for a second I could possibly buy this thing @191 but that's where it would have to be for me to consider it.  The books are going to come out with a number nowhere near this.  What we do have going for us is that DET is a much different team and I'm hoping the books think the public is thinking more scoring than what we saw for most of the season.  Let's hope.
HoldenRg says:
03/14/09 05:18PM
 PEACE!
trainer4u2 says:
03/14/09 02:59PM
over sunday lakeshow dallas has no choice
timemaster says:
03/14/09 03:12PM
great intro
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:12PM

LMAO...I'm sure there are a few people out there that doesn't think this is too funny.  No offense fellas...all in good fun.  
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:15PM

I'm hoping but I think you are closer with your first set of numbers.  Hey, they might just throw us a bone for the early game!
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:16PM

may be the smartest play today Joe...I haven't locked into anything yet...
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 02:55PM
This BOS/MIL game must be giving the books fits right now...I have no idea where this number is going to land.  I'm thinking there's some change in the way Boston has played lately.  The absence of KG is making its impact on how Boston plays against the totals number.  I'm a half-dumb assed homer stupid enough to go blind over on this one.   LOL, did I just say that?  This is what I get for trying to cap my hometown team.   When will I ever learn?

Be back in a bit with some more buy-in numbers.
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 02:45PM

thanks brother...and you do the same...you've been on a roll!  
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:18PM

How the hell can you sleep with all the action you have?  Time to move to America Crockie, that's it man...time to move stateside!  
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:19PM
no sweat Joe 
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:19PM

Appreciate that timemaster 
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:22PM

Ouch, don't I know that feeling?  I know you've been seeing the same thing as me...good value on the over with this team until KG gets back.  Gool luck Homie   
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:27PM

Thanks Brother, gamblers need a holiday too...some prefer the Super Bowl while others love the orgy they call March Madness...I like to take it back old school when winning meant dying at a later day...isn't that what 90% of gamblers do?  There are only about 10% or less really turning  a profit in this business.  It's so much like the Gladiators..."Winning simply means dying at a later day"


axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:30PM

Thanks Crockie...While this doesn't grab me by the...they're both viable options.  Will have to wait on the rest I guess.  Thank you sir
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 02:57PM
Crockie, I know you're halfway around the world but I think we've caught a ride on the same wavelenght here!!  I should have some more thoughts before it's time for you to go to bed.  
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:34PM
Lines slowly coming in...damn, that MEM/DET number looks low @ 183.5...
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:39PM
Dallas at L.A. Lakers @211.5 looks interesting.  Maybe the public moves this up a bit since it's Sunday.  Board's not looking half bad so far.  There seems to be value floating around.  Not really anything to jump on overnight but I think we can find a play or two when the dust settles.
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:47PM
If the Utah at Orlando number is anywhere near 202, this has the potential of being the UOD.  I'll leave it at that until the numbers come out and I can do some real capping...
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 05:56PM
what happens when two teams with a combined record of 29-102 meet?

run it with SDQL and what you thought will be supported by the numbers!!!
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 06:06PM
Anyone want to throw out a number for Phoenix at Golden State?  I actually have a lean for the side on this one.  Back to the totals:

last few in GS

227.5
234.5
229
224.5
216.5

Anyone looking at this opening around 226.5+?
Crockie says:
03/14/09 05:31PM
You're welcome I'm going to bed now. Good night
Crockie says:
03/14/09 05:24PM
Ax I have some lines from Sunday for you
Crockie says:
03/14/09 05:25PM
Boston @ Milwaukee 199
Portland @ Atlanta 187
Crockie says:
03/14/09 02:52PM


yes you're right. detroit is a different team. did you see detroit-toronto yesterday? the line was 193.5, the game went 194 but this after the overtime... i thought this game would go over 194 before gametime. but it would have been a big under when there was no overtime. i hope the books will set here a higher total.
Crockie says:
03/14/09 02:54PM


okay gl with this. i played the under
Crockie says:
03/14/09 02:55PM
i like to play over at the moment ax. yesterday i went 3-1 with my totals. the teams like to score at the moment.
Crockie says:
03/14/09 02:56PM
my over @ miami-utah looks very good at the moment
Crockie says:
03/14/09 03:08PM


yes that's right and i'm happy about it

this is what i don't like i have to take my bets bevore i go to sleep. i cannot watch any game cause they are in the night. when i wake up the first thing i do: watch the scores
bostonsbetter says:
03/14/09 04:28PM

Hey ax,

I hear ya with the hometown thing... I played 6 plays last night. Went 4-2. The 2 were boston under and boston -12.5. O well...

Anyway, I like the blind over call as well... Boston definetly playing a different game right now.

FlippaCoin says:
03/14/09 03:01PM


I was hoping to win 2 goats and cow, tonight. 
That's all good, I can wait. 

FlippaCoin says:
03/14/09 06:09PM


Why because they're vegans? 
No offense vegan-ians,
Was only joking, I play with monopoly money. 

I'm just happy I was able to climb back out of the hole that I fell into the other day by playing that back and forth CBB, sitting around for 5 hours...reading through stupid chatter just to end up losing.
Wasted a whole day. 
No one to blame but myself.  
We live, we learn.
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 06:12PM

This one looks low but I had an estimated line of 184.5-186.5. That will probably keep me away from this one unless I don't like any other games and I see something in the numbers or trends here when I cap it.
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 06:14PM

I haven't looked at this one yet but I will right now and give you my guess
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 03:07PM
I think we will see a 212-214 line for Pacers/Raptors. Maybe it will be inflated by a few points and we could see a  216-218 since the Raptors have went over in 8 straight.
Joe_Vienna says:
03/14/09 03:07PM
no good under plays today in my oppionion .. but if there was a gun involved I would say NO @ CHI!
SAS @ HOU also looks good but I won't play any of this!



BOL
Joe
Joe_Vienna says:
03/14/09 03:08PM
Sorry! Didn't noticed this thread is for sunday!!!


Hustler99 says:
03/14/09 02:47PM
char and over.  Played it as a 5pt teaser!!!
I think it could hit 200+
WizrduvOdz says:
03/15/09 12:00AM
I like Mil +6.5

 

Boston is weak 1st game on road after home win (close one against Mem)

Mil 0-6 ats streak

No Garnett, no Redd, Big Baby hurting.......sounds like inside game for Mil.....

 

Any thought, Ax?  or anyone else?

ChuyenTinhDenDo says:
03/15/09 02:40AM
I like WAS and NJ (1st Half)
Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 06:58AM
Hey Proguy..

 

Do you really think Jazz/Mia will be tired?  They came off 3 day rest before yesterdays game, and would have the whole afternoon to recoup.  Miami's game is early, but Utahs is later.

Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 12:13AM
JCY, Ax, anyone else considering the GSW unders.

 

You all have some s 

 

 

 

Gambleholic says:
03/14/09 11:01PM
I agree, the GS/PHO game will be released in the 230s. I am going to guess 233-235.

 

 

Bruuuuce78 says:
03/15/09 12:51AM

I hit my under for the Denver game but..........

 

Bruuuuce had the Miami/Utah Under.................only missed by like 70 but shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiittt

 

I think the Knicks/Cleveland total will be above 200........I dont think there is any value in any Knicks game total, we might as well wipe them off the board............

Look forward to doing some under research tomorrow morning.........later bro

madashman says:
03/15/09 10:43AM
Utah/Orlando is 205.5 at Bookmaker.  This looks like the best play on the board.  I think I'll take some small action on Boston/Milwaukee, just don't see how these teams take it into the 200's.
Fathomable says:
03/14/09 07:55PM
i got 234-236 on the pho/gs game        
Fathomable says:
03/15/09 11:02AM
looking at sac/was at 210
Fathomable says:
03/15/09 11:04AM
trends are against it but i think they set this line high
Fathomable says:
03/15/09 10:52AM
lol @243 for the pho game
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:32AM
Hey guys, I want to let you know I'll be doing the updates of this on the forum thread only and not the blog. weird how the thread updates the blog but not vice versa. peace
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 08:51PM
I think this PHO/GS is the highest number I've come up with this season: 240. WOW
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 11:07PM
I'm tired of waiting.  Maybe I started my pre-capping routine too early but I'm ready!  Bring it!
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 06:21PM

Yep JCW...looks low and actually has a chance to still go under...not good for value shoppers....
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 06:22PM

You got a preference JCW?  O / U?
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 06:20PM

Still LMAO bro...I'm saying maybe there are still people betting goats and livestock.    Man, I know I'm weak @ CBB cause I can't stick to one conference.  I jump around like a mad man and have no idea what the hell to do when the numbers come out.  That's why I stick to the NBA, I least I know a little bit about the league.

I'm up over 30 Units for the season and I can't complain...but it's wearing on me...I'm not really a big fan of the NBA (shocker!!!) I'm counting the hours to opening day!
axpiota59 says:
03/14/09 07:39PM

Thanks JCW...I know everyone is busy with so many CBB games on tap.  I appreciate it!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:58AM

Will do and thanks for stopping by.  If you have something to share, we'd love to hear it!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:40AM

Nice  that NOH/CHI was money...I saw that was Chump's POD but that OKC/PHO I was thinking was going to be one of those.  Damn, the under covered by 30+.  Gotta find one of those for Sunday...one that covers the under by at least 20 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:04AM

LOL I had the under on that game also...posted play on my blog.  Wow, if you're going to lose a play, that's how you do it.  Congrats on the under on DEN though 

Bruce, I don't recall even listing them on this thread.  I agree with you, there's absolutely no value on the O/U of that game.  Got a few I'm eyeballing.  We'll find a good one by mid-morning.  'night bro!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:07AM

KB, I'm hoping that by the time this game rolls around, I've already been to the window and will have absolutely no need to touch this game! 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:15AM

Hey Phil_Riv, good to see you bud.  Did you happen to see my earlier post on this matchup?  These are very, very.......very bad teams.  Still waiting on the numbers but just be careful with this game.  If you don't normally play SAC totals, this may not be the game to start.  I'm still shopping myself...I know there won't be any major movements tonight but I can dream...BOL pal.  Let us know when you find that gem!  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:33AM

Interesting...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:19AM

I know I said it may be a good idea to go the blind over in this matchup but looking at the situation you just mention:

Boston's 1st game on the road after a home win this season
O/U 2-10 with the avg number @ 190 and the under covers nearly by 8 points.  Current line is 199...that's not a bad trend

As for the side: C's are 5-7 ATS in this spot.

Now looking at this angle from the Bucks point of view:

O/U 8-6 with the avg about 195 and covers the over by about 6.  this is around the current number.

ATS: 7-7
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:20AM

just an option but I personally don't think I'll ever get to considering the game since there are a few before that.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:21AM

Thanks for this JCW...I'm going to see if I'm anywhere near the rest of your numbers
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:23AM

that's the only problem with no action tonight...just a bit anxious...things are shaping up though, got some real good number crunching in tonight.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:27AM

I wonder how many people cashed in on the under in this one.  I can't believe PHO also covered...I may just stay away from any PHO action for the rest of the season.  I can't cap this team 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:43AM

eyeballing that play also, hoping for a public bump
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:47AM

I'm going to run some more numbers when they finally publish some lines...hate this waiting game!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:49AM

 me too pal...hoping for a better option.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:50AM

How about the Boston side Crockie?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:52AM

I wish we had some numbers to go on.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:53AM

Good eye PnP...I like the former better than the latter.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:11AM

Thanks pal...was looking for confirmation on my 1/20U homer play. 

Catch y'all in a few...gotta get some sleep!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:56AM
boss, I called this game my possible UOD, post #50...

Man, you're making me feel old...you going to start talking about Hogan's Heroes and F-Troop next boss?  I did love Blood, Sweat and Tears!  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:05AM
JCW, if you're interested in my buy-in numbers, just add minimum 3 possession (7 points) to any of those numbers.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:20AM

Excellent thank you.  Now I have some finishing work.  I love the destruction part.  Now she's got plans for the color, blah, blah...LOL  Got about 2 days left.

axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:23AM

really boss?  I'm more with Bruce on this one...just 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:30AM

Let's do that Brother!
jlippens says:
03/15/09 11:32AM
Fathomable: you are right when you say the trends are against it. When two terrible teams play each other the overwhelming trend is for games to go OVER the total. Both get to play schoolyard ball against each other with no defense in a "competitive" game.

Dichotomy can be found in a general trend of two elite teams facing off tending to go UNDER the total.

It's a simple and effective general trend to follow. I don't play many overs, but this is going to be one of them.
Crockie says:
03/15/09 10:57AM


yeah this line is unbelievable... i took the under
Crockie says:
03/15/09 02:39AM
Ax I like the under @ Boston-Milwaukee. Yes Boston is a different team without KG. I think they will score 100 points. But will the Bucks also score 100 points? I don't think so. I think Boston will keep them less than 90 points.
Crockie says:
03/15/09 03:08AM


Hmmmm difficult... I think the Celtics will win this game. But will they cover these 6.5 points - I don't know Perhaps I'll play Celtics 1 half.
Crockie says:
03/15/09 10:48AM


I like Boston/Milwaukee
Crockie says:
03/15/09 10:41AM
lines are out!
FlippaCoin says:
03/14/09 11:21PM
Still waiting on three more totals for tomorrow.
You might even like some of those better.

Drink up, rest up, enjoy your evening.
Tomorrow will be a great day, I can feel it.

  

JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 11:39PM
Here is what I came up with when I predicted Sunday's lines lines:
Pacers/Raptors- 213
Blazers/Hawks- 186.5
Heat/76ers- 197
Celtics/Bucks- Not Capping
Grizz/Pistons 185.5
Mavs/Lakers 209.5
Knicks/Cavs 196
Jazz/Magic 198.5
Kings/Wizards 206
Suns/Warriors 230
Nets/Clips 203.5
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 11:09PM
The higher the number the better I'm really starting to like the possibility of playing the under.
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 07:45PM

I just hate when there isn't a good NBA card it forces me over to the college side(gotta have some action ) where I'm not doing near as well as I am in the league
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 06:20PM
I came up with 229-231
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 06:26PM

I haven't looked into it yet. I spent most of my free time today capping the NCAA. The only thing I have done so far today for tomorrow is my estimated lines.
JCWhy83 says:
03/14/09 06:36PM
I had 208.5-210.5 for the Mavs/Lakers. If the public move the line up another point this could be one the first games I look to cap. Leaning under after first glance.
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 03:11AM
I have never bet a 1H in a basketball game but I'm thinking about the Blazers/Hawks. What peaks my interest here is Portland playing a very good Hawks D at 10:05am their time. I don't think I'll pull the trigger here but something I'll watch closely.
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 02:33AM
After I have looked at the Knicks game closer. I don't think I factored the pace in correctly in my earlier projection but I still only have it at 202. If it opens at something in the 208-210 range it will be on my short list 
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 01:04AM
I want to see the Heat, Knicks and Suns lines 
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 01:56AM

I'm starting to cap the games for my number. The first game I did Pacers/Raptors I got 204
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 01:58AM
I made a mistake. 210 is my number for that game
t20boss says:
03/15/09 02:06AM

Hadn't scrolled all the way back thru this thread - now I see your earlier post - Like this one and agree w/JCW on NY/Clev as a possibility as well.

How'd that wall removal project come out ? 

 

t20boss says:
03/15/09 01:51AM
Ax, how do you see the Jazz/Magic game ? I'm seeing it as a good possibility for under value myself - capped it at around 192.

 

Ides of March ... great sound called 'Vehicle" back in the day right ? Sound kinda like Blood Sweat and Tears with the horn section and all...  

proguy747 says:
03/15/09 02:29AM
based on those #s lakers looks like a good play.
proguy747 says:
03/15/09 02:33AM
The problem with capping the jazz  and heat tommorrow will be that everyone knows they are tired.  That will spell trouble on the defensive end of those teams and opposing coaches should try to have an up tempo game.   With them both being on the road it will be hard to dictate the pace.   Not sure if those numbers will be overs or unders on the fact that each team could get blown out.  Too much to think about.
proguy747 says:
03/15/09 03:13AM
It is time to go to bed, but I think the lakers play is the pod based on numbers.   However maybe someone knows more about the lakers clinching playoff and how phil will play the starters.  my guess is phil always keeps the pedal to the medal.  see you guys in the morning.
JJ802 says:
03/15/09 03:43AM
Hey Ax, been following your thread the past week.  You are great at what you do, and have got me very interested in unders now.  I really like Por/Atl tomorrow. I came up with 181 give or take a point and was suprise to see you there too.  I decided to pull the trigger on it tonight.  GL with your pick. 
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 02:44AM
Based on your numbers Ax, are POR-ATL and DAL-LAL in the mix for POD? The Laker total is almost guaranteed to rise tomorrow too I would say.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/14/09 11:19PM
It might go under.....cause GS is gonna blow them out of the water if PHX play tomorrow night like they did in the first half against the Thunder!
Philip_Rivers says:
03/15/09 02:28AM

Good call Ax...I agree...There's better value out there.  Let's get that POD!
Philip_Rivers says:
03/15/09 01:04AM
Sup Ax,

Good to see you on the boards again.  I'm looking at the Sac/Was game.  I see one these teams scoring in the 100's and one in the 90's. So if a number over 200 opens up, I would consider this.  I don't really play Sac game totals though.  I'm just like you today...little action = analyzing a lot of games for tomorrow. 

BOL pal!
uwmattyk13 says:
03/15/09 12:32AM

I only took 2 NBA games tonight,  in both the Chi-NO under and OK-Pho under, nervous about both until the half in each 
uwmattyk13 says:
03/15/09 12:46AM
If you find one let me know, I'd love another game where I can be certain by the half.... btw i've been reading your threads since i joined a week ago and have already learned alot, thanks ax
jim844 says:
03/15/09 09:43AM
hey ax will you be posting a list of you plays?
i sifted through the few pages of forum and have only found some leans and things that seem ok but were awaiting confirmation and such

jim844 says:
03/15/09 10:59AM
any confirmed picks guys?

compita_luigi says:
03/15/09 02:45PM
Ax, i realy don`t like the orlando line movemnet.. the game will be somewere in the 205`s.. about 4 points movement?.. the game will be just there..
LFTNUT says:
03/15/09 02:25PM

if my bookie is still at 211 is there still the value to play the under?

 

highside107 says:
03/15/09 03:01PM

Forgot if this was a trend or not.. do Sunday morning games tend to go Under normally?
highside107 says:
03/15/09 02:41PM

Thanks. Saved me 10 pages of reading
highside107 says:
03/15/09 03:07PM
Guys - Utah/Orlando going back up to 203 everywhere
mrod112 says:
03/15/09 11:48AM
i was trying to read ur plays to see if you posted any but didnt see n e with all the posts but im leaning under dallas have it now at 211 but man phx game is 234.5?
mrod112 says:
03/15/09 11:49AM
sorry 243.5
ree says:
03/15/09 12:43PM
i like your picks Axpiota
chump says:
03/15/09 12:46PM
The LA Clippers have lost their last 7 games averaging 90.8 points per game ... sooo the under 203 1/2 looks inviting since NJ hasn't scored 114 points in a game since their home win over Denver back in the beginning of February when all the players sampled Five-Hour Energy drinks before the game !!!

 

 

chump says:
03/15/09 12:48PM

You can like AX's picks all you want ... I like your avatar's ass !!!

chump says:
03/15/09 01:46PM

Yes ... but not any lower !!!    Good Luck 

chump says:
03/15/09 01:16PM
SBG Global's numbers  ( my book )

 

LA Lakers 209 1/2

Cleveland 211

Orlando 205 1/2

Washington 211

Golden State 245 1/2

LA Clippers 203 1/2

collectNOW says:
03/15/09 03:13PM
AXP...what do you think about a 6 point teaser for utah-orl and the lakers? It would be around -165,but you get 6 "free" points since all the lines are tumbling under.I know you have to win both games,but isn't this better than buying the utah-orl game up from 202 to 205.5? Buying 3.5 points for 1 game  would be -180 juice.I guess what i am trying to say is.....is it better to buy points and have to win 1 game,or get a 6 point cushion,but have to win both?
tim0307 says:
03/15/09 03:19PM
Ax, so let me get this right, you like the ORL/UTA Under? at 203
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/15/09 12:48PM
Hmmmm, BOL bro i'll be rooting for ya............personally im staying away..........

 

Bruuuuce78 says:
03/15/09 12:44PM
Im not seeing alot of under stuff I like, Im gonna look some more.....
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/15/09 12:59PM
After further review, I think there I great value with the Lakers game under..........I personally thought the total should have been 205.............have a steady line with alot of OVER action............just something to look at....
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/15/09 12:59PM
i bought it just now at 211
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/15/09 12:43PM
Is there any verdict yet AX?
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/15/09 01:10PM

 

 

Im happy at 211...........Im not alarmed by the upwards movement........there still is going to be alot of over action at 211.5..........

Ole_Gunslinger says:
03/15/09 01:08PM


You are right about that PHI team and their less effort def. But I also take into account, that bookmakers set the spread at 7.5 like they don't expect a close game with lots of fouls at the end - maybe no blowout, but an exhausted, less competitive MIA team.

Think I'll give it a shot.

BOL to us
Ole_Gunslinger says:
03/15/09 12:50PM
Hey Ax, I'm already with you on UTA/ORL but I'll stay away from the PHO/GSW under even @ 244

I also like a game which seems to fly under the radar. I'm talking about MIA/PHI with the line set @ 197. The average total in previous meetings this season was 185. Okay, recently both teams put some decent numbers on the board, but with MIA coming from that 3OT game with tired legs and PHI dictating their pace do you expect to see that many points?
Forty7 says:
03/15/09 12:16PM
I am not sure what your play is but if you think the GSW PS is safe i do not.  Everyone thinks so but this could go very high with several 40 point quarters....I am not saying anything other than ...
CoFred says:
03/15/09 12:14PM
Ax, did you lock in a full unit on the Utah/Orlando under?
CoFred says:
03/15/09 12:30PM
Bodog doesn't have lines posted for the Utah/Orlando or Sacremento/Washington games. They say its due to injuries and stuff....Idiots
CoFred says:
03/15/09 01:04PM
Well it's the first book I started with and I haven't had any problems with deposits or payouts. I get frustrated with it sometimes because it doesn't have all the options I would like and they post everything so late. I honestly think that they wait and see if anything gets pounded when it opens so they can avoid losses but who knows. Anybody have any suggestions for an online book for US players?  Oh, and one that has lots of soccer
CoFred says:
03/15/09 03:08PM
Ever any problems with Bookmaker?
CoFred says:
03/15/09 02:42PM
After my third call about the lines, they tell me they sometimes put the lines out late to prevent "syndicate betting."  I need to find a really good book.
CoFred says:
03/15/09 03:03PM
I know you're joking Ax. I just wish I could've gotten the same number as you guys. Because if I get it at 202, It'll be 203 and I'll lose and everyone else will win.

Ax, what book do you use?
CoFred says:
03/15/09 01:40PM
See, now Bodog can open it at 203.5 and not worry about the good cappers who bought this at 205 or 206. 

Bodog
CoFred says:
03/15/09 02:28PM
I have to wait until 4pm est for Bodog to post the lines to that game and the Sacremento game. I hate when they do this to games I wanna bet.
CoFred says:
03/15/09 03:21PM
Collect, the only tease I can think of is your avatar. She is smoking man. Please tell me you took that pic or she gave it to you
Fathomable says:
03/15/09 12:21PM
i hear ya 40. gs games scare me. how many folks r really gonna take this over?
SUP3RMAN says:
03/15/09 12:11PM
1) 243 looks like a bait =P
2) my play of the day is MIA +7.5

LETS DO IT!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:12PM

Looks like you've already read my thoughts sir.  I'm passing on the big number although the trends support the play under and yes I also like the LAL play but I already have the UTA/ORL which is shaping up to be the UOD...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:15PM

DAL/LAL would likely be my personal 2nd choice...I just can't believe this 244.5 number though....
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:12PM
unbelievable...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:13PM

the former more so than the latter
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:21PM

Hell Crockie, I think I'm jumping on this one with you...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:22PM

BOL proguy...liking your DAL/LAL action
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:24PM

GL with your card pal  244.5 now...may just be worth a little investment...I haven't locked it in yet but...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:26PM

Yes sir Phil_Riv, may Caesar's spirit grant us this festive day of wine women and livestock...but if not...the under on this game will do. 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:18PM

thanks pal
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:19PM

Looking forward to seeing your card my friend!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:50AM

I ran the numbers on UTA this year on the 5th of 5 on the road.  O/U 2-2 (avg line 194.6) and the under covers by about 2.5

couple that with ORL dictating at home and their tendancy towards the lower numbers...I have a heavy learn on this to go under...IMHO

run this:

team=Jazz and p:site=away and pp:site=away and ppp:site=away and pppp:site=away and season=2008
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:53AM

That's the biggest complaint I have about this forum from many readers...No picks ...what we do here is throw out some possibilities for the Under of the day.  We go back and forth with information and you will start to get a sense of where we all stand on one game...I do post a POD on WBA's forum .  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:55AM

Hank, how'd your numbers come out for UTA/ORL?  I just can't believe Lakers number is dropping 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:56AM

Good eye, good eye 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:45AM

Thanks man, just curious what number you bought.  GL sir.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:46AM

Lakers number dropping...say it isn't so.  Losing value...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:38AM
Good morning everyone...give me a chance to catch up.  you must know by now from all of last night's postings which number I jumped on.  From what I've seen on the board this morning, it was a no brainer.  Don't look to much into the 3OT game.  These guys are pros.  Remember the Q's and Huskies going 6 then the very next night the Orange took it into OT again?  It wasn't till last night that the legs finally gave in and they were probably going to lose that game anyway.
IMHO, this is the game with the most O/U value on the board.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:59AM

I haven't seen your card yet Crockie...are you locked on this?  I think BOS drops a bunch on these guys...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:01PM

I thought I was nuts when I projected this number @ 240...and the books went even higher...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:07PM

GL Crockie  ...looks like a pass for me on this.  I know that since 1996, there's never been a total set this high.  the total has only been over 235 9X since 1996 and the O/U is 2-5-2

looks like a good play
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:09PM

excellent point jlipp, 29-102 combined...if I were to play the over today...i believe i couldn't turn this one down...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:05PM

Where PnP?  I only see it at 206 at Bet Jamaica, everywhere else it's 205.  Watch very closely then.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:05PM

man, i should have waited
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:07PM

Shop around pal, check out covers promoted books.  If you have problems, covers says they'll go to bat for you.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:55PM

Slinger...yeah bro, it's exactly those recent numbers that throws me off.  Not just Miami's but the PHI defense also giving up a little more lately.  If PHI dictates and stays true to form at home like they've been doing most of the season and discarding some of both team's recent play, this doesn't get out of the 180's.  I just can't pull the trigger on this though.  I wish you luck and will be rooting for this to go under!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:56PM
Turc, your POD is out?  I missed that, going to go check it out now!  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:02PM

Let us know Bruce...seems to be a lot of interest on the under in that game...looks like it's moving back up
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:03PM

I'm looking at 211.5 now and may move up even more.  I may just be getting greedy.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:31PM

thank you sir, I hope you had your own reasons for taking the play.  If you have some thoughts about other games, throw 'em out there.  These kind folks will let you know their supporting or counter arguments.  BOL 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:33PM

LOL forty...the voice that's pulling me back.  I haven't locked yetand I've got some time to overanalyze this.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:35PM

chase, i'm thinking UTA 3OT game yesterday=tired legs= no defense...and public places heavy emphasis on this.  just my best guess.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:36PM

I guess $$ is on this...can't believe this movement.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:38PM

BOL Crockie, I know you had to pull the trigger since it's almost bedtime for ya.  I'm going to hold off since I have a whole day.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:39PM

You like that book Co?  I've heard only bad things?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:45PM

Yeah, Locked in UTA/ORL U205.5 when it came out.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:20PM

I think I'm going to...may just be my 2nd play today.  damn, that's a high number.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:29PM

I did sir...I saw it open this morning @ 205.5 and didn't have a choice...the pick had a life of its own...now I'm just shopping around for a possible 2nd and looks like I'm jumping on that huge number...but haven't lock it yet
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:50PM

I must be getting old...there's another one I missed 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:51PM

Thanks Bruce...BOL to you also pal
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:49PM

Damn Chump, completely overlooked that.  That's a very good point.  I have about 8 hours left on that one, going to start running numbers.  Thanks pal..
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 12:46PM

Thank you ree, GL to you
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:29PM
FYI

UTA/ORL down to 202.5...approaching minimum to no value

got some interesting late games though.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:30PM

Wow, that really sucks.  It's time to sever that relationship.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:31PM

BOL JCW 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:47PM

we know ace...board watching is such a big part of what we do...it sucks when something like this blindsides us.  more like a sucker punch...WOW
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:28PM

even at 211 I didn't lock in since I was hoping for a bump up...some things just aren't meant to be.  I'm not going to force this one.  GL 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:51PM

DAL/LAL under officially off my shopping list and filed in the cylindrical container next to my desk.

axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:52PM

Don't give up hope...it's not over yet...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:36PM
OK, listen fellas, if you look back, my buy-in number was 202 for this game at minimum value...Some of us were fortunate but there's still value here guys...you can wait this out but watch this thing closely!!!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:37PM

I think PnP was hoping for a bump up and if it showed any signs of moving down, he was going to lock in...2.5 was NOT something he or any of us expected.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:11PM
ok guys, grabbing some lunch and will focus much on DAL/LAL after.  got a couple of hours before tip.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:31PM
Holy...WTF is going on here...happy I got in early for UTA but I may have missed the boat on the LakeShow U...the economy of the board at work today...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:06PM

I'm not sure what this trend is Highside but you had me going for a second though.  I was racking my brain then realized you're on the left coast, LOL, of course I don't have many morning games on the east coast.  I used that same theory for yesterday's early game with UTA/MIA...only missed that under by about 70 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:57PM

Chump has set this minimum value @ 202.5...I haven't really worked this out since it's such a late game for me.  Sorry Crockie.  Maybe Chump can chime in.  GL bro.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:58PM

interesting...how's the public feeling right now?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:48PM

thanks luigi...we're almost at that point where the safest acion is none at all.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:52PM

OK, OK I confess

I moved the lines when I bet 50 big ones on both the UTA and LAL games accross 10 books.  geez, I didn't think putting $10 all over the place would have this effect...

Please know I'm joking, don't flame me or I'll have to doctor up a ticket.    No offense to those that do this.  I mean you no insult.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:43PM

doesn't hurt to read some of it HighSide...some guys have come out with some good plays...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:41PM
Posted: 3/14/2009 5:47:42 PM
If the Utah at Orlando number is anywhere near 202, this has the potential of being the UOD.  I'll leave it at that until the numbers come out and I can do some real capping...

WOW, this one was called early...fingers crossed
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 01:45PM

On the money boss...3 possession cushion still available here.

lunch still cooking...damn, I'm hungry...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 02:37PM

One thing about NY is that they consistently give up about 108-109...this is what worries me.  CLE can just blow up.  You are correct about their defense though...they are the best defense in the league after all.  I think CLE's last road trip is skewing the numbers a bit.  If they play true to form, they are DD better by the half.  Hope this helps pal...just my humble opinion.  GL
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:07PM

I have a few and also local options but I'm with Bookmaker mostly.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:09PM

There you go CoFred...the way it's been going for you and PnP today, you'll buy this and it'll bump all the way to 204 or something.

BOL man
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:10PM

Never...but some even here at covers have...hit some of the threads for book shopping, there are lots of good info.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:18PM

I am going to be completely honest with you.  I neither buy points nor do I tease.  It's just my personal philosophy and the mathematics behind the whole advantage the house already has on all of us.  I don't believe that creating artificial values reflects the true values naturally created by the economy of the board.  This is only one person's opinion but I do wish you the very best. 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:13PM

caveat, there are times when a team has built up a big lead and they become content to trade baskets the rest of the game.  Up by 15 1H and trade baskets the rest of the way is a dangerous scenario for us unders players.  GL Proguy
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:15PM

Proguy's already been to the window!!!
SlicerDicer says:
03/15/09 01:26PM

www.thegreek.com   loads of soccer and US Players can bet there.

 

SlicerDicer says:
03/15/09 11:58AM
Accuscore Totals:

 

Ind/Tor  212.4

Atl/Por  183.6

Phi/Mia  191.6

Celt/Bucks  195.5

Det/Mem  183.6

LAL/Mavs  208.3

Cavs/Knicks  205.5

Orl/Jazz  201.5

Wiz/Kings  213.5

GS/Phx  246.4

Nets/Clips  200.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

jlippens says:
03/15/09 12:06PM
In the past six meetings, 243 was the high total. This was back in the day, high flying Phoenix. I like the UNDER here. Although its so high you wonder. Screw trap lines I guess. Just take the 243.
vegasace99 says:
03/15/09 01:33PM

am i missing something? y would u wait for it to DROP?

vegasace99 says:
03/15/09 01:13PM
Mornin Ax!... w ya on Orl U....also small parlay on ORL, LAL, LAC, PHI U. Dumb, i know, but what the hell:)

 

PS they moved ORL to 206 here as well...an hour AFTER i played it at 205:(

vegasace99 says:
03/15/09 01:44PM
gothca...nor could we know on that point move..didnt mean anything by it i was just curios
vegasace99 says:
03/15/09 02:32PM
NYK PG Duhon out as well
vegasace99 says:
03/15/09 02:29PM
Ax what bout CLE?? look at recent home games they seem to D up. NYK have scored lots o pts away mostly due to Nate R goin off....contain the lil guy n keep this one well under??? Only thing is NY allows alotta pts but if cle can put this one away early it should be good.
vegasace99 says:
03/15/09 02:37PM

scroll back to prev posts...#50

Crockie says:
03/15/09 02:52PM
Ax do you have opinions to the game Clippers @ Nets? The line opened @ 20.5 and is now down to 200.5. one of my bookmakers has it still at 205. do you recommend this game for an under?
Crockie says:
03/15/09 02:56PM
Wow looks like the first 5 games go all under
Crockie says:
03/15/09 02:58PM
okay thanks Ax
Crockie says:
03/15/09 03:10PM
CoFred write me a pm. I have a booksmaker who has it still at 205
Crockie says:
03/15/09 03:10PM


good question i don't know
Crockie says:
03/15/09 11:41AM


@ 244 now
Crockie says:
03/15/09 12:27PM
If you jump with me on the GS under I wish us the best I think the game will end  235-240. This is the only game where I think: under or no play. And this doesn't happen so often
Crockie says:
03/15/09 12:11PM


thanks, hope i'm not wrong with this
Crockie says:
03/15/09 12:04PM


yes i have. i will post my plays in a few moments
GOLDENGREEK111 says:
03/15/09 02:35PM
axpiota59

 

What are your plays and leans do far

 

Thanks in advance

BoyDiamonds says:
03/15/09 11:47AM


my book jumped to 244.5 already
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 01:45PM
 at the lakers and magic lines dropping before I made a decision. 
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 02:15PM
Locked in with the Jazz/Magic 203.5 and Knicks/Cavs 211
t20boss says:
03/15/09 01:41PM

I agree -  I capped this game in the 192-195 range, so considering the 3 possession rule, 203.5 is still a good number IMO....

t20boss says:
03/15/09 01:26PM
Jazz game down from 205.5 to 204 at BetUS ... oh oh
t20boss says:
03/15/09 01:32PM

Gotta wonder if someone is injured or something, P N P ?

t20boss says:
03/15/09 11:40AM
Morning, Ax - now that we actually have some lines to reference, I'm sticking to my pick w/Jazz/Orl under 205 as the best value out there IMO, with GS/Phx under 243 a close 2nd. Seems like more than a few like LAL under as well. Thoughts ?
MisterMoss says:
03/15/09 01:02PM
My book moved the Orlando total to 206 already
proguy747 says:
03/15/09 12:11PM
a few picks for you .    atlanta -4  under 189.

lakers under 212.     

proguy747 says:
03/15/09 01:24PM

big money just shifted orlando down to 203.5. 

 

Chump clipps at 202.5 at my book.  Still a value?

proguy747 says:
03/15/09 03:11PM
Guys I mentioned the raptors were due for a win and an under. anybody have the ba**s to play them?  I did
proguy747 says:
03/15/09 03:09PM
i think the cleveland has value.   the cavs will go off but at home they will go up early and put on the cruise control.  the knicks do not have an inside game that will give the cavs trouble.  I believe this game will be over early with cavs dominating d the first half.
proguy747 says:
03/15/09 03:20PM
fire baby 4-0   I am so happy I have been getting killed by the hook.  Ax if your jazz pick hits for me PM me your address and I will send you a nice filet from the best butcher In orange county california.  Thanks for the isight ax you are the man.       Can you tell I am happy? 
JJ802 says:
03/15/09 03:19PM
hey ax, the under on the por/atl game hit, hopefully you got a piece of that action. keep up the good work.  still looking into the orl/utah game. 
mistahfob says:
03/15/09 01:36PM
yea it was weird.. the ORL totals line suddenly dipped to 203.5 right after i got it at 206
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 01:41PM


That is exactly what I was doing.

BOL with the play, ax! Time will tell if I will be on it as well.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 01:24PM
WTF UTA-ORL just dropped to 203.5. What in the hell is going on with the totals today???
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 01:13PM


Pinnacle.

DAL-LAL took a big hit though.....down to 209.5 now.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 01:30PM
As soon as it dropped slightly I was gonna buy. But how does one predict a 2.5 point drop???!!!
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 01:50PM


Tell me about it! My stomach hurts right now, although maybe it is because I haven`t had lunch yet either, haha.

Might as well dub today ``Sharp Sunday``
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 12:59PM
I agree with Chump, LAC has had a lot of trouble scoring lately.

Also, the UTA-ORL total has rose to 206 now Do I take it now or wait and see how it moves?
Philip_Rivers says:
03/15/09 01:03PM
Me too..my book has Utah/Orl at 206.
Philip_Rivers says:
03/15/09 12:12PM
Ax, I'm locked and loaded on the Utah/Orl game.  My book had it at 205.  BOL to all of us. 
jim844 says:
03/15/09 12:15PM


yea i took your advice on the UOD and locked in ORL/UTA
love your picks and the discussion you facilitate
helps us novice's get a handle on how to approach games to be capping ourselves
keep em coming!
jim844 says:
03/15/09 11:48AM
ax you liking the utah/orl under and the pho under ?

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 02:35PM
UTA/ORL down to 203.5 on my book
XhuegoX says:
03/15/09 04:49PM
Yo ax, I just noticed the suns/warriors line, 244 ...wow thats a huge number, are they serious???? i might play the under just because that number is so funny...so 120-121 the under will hit
XhuegoX says:
03/15/09 08:36PM
mpnyc76 says:
03/15/09 05:30PM
 
JBIRD-55 says:
03/15/09 08:34PM
AX

 

Every Game today has gone under with two to go.  Do you think N.J.  should go over now?

highside107 says:
03/15/09 08:50PM
thanks for the pick, ax
highside107 says:
03/15/09 05:49PM

So is this total (GS/PHX) a NO play for you, ax?
highside107 says:
03/15/09 06:00PM

Got it. The thing with ANY GS/PHX total is that you KNOW you probably have at least 1-3 points of value here as the oddsmakers are automatically going to inflate this line regardless, making the "under" attractive.  The flip side of the coin is that these are such shitty teams (especially on D) that anything can happen
highside107 says:
03/15/09 03:29PM

ProGuy, where is this best butcher in Orange County you speak of?  I live in Huntington and work in Newport Beach
highside107 says:
03/15/09 04:13PM

Ax has only one POD that you have not missed yet. See post #50
highside107 says:
03/15/09 04:37PM

An "over" from Turc?
highside107 says:
03/15/09 07:16PM

2H total for Utah is pretty much right on the game total (depending on what line you got) of 204
grindstone says:
03/15/09 07:48PM
Hey AX just got in from work ,did you have a play today?? Can I help out with anything.
grindstone says:
03/15/09 08:02PM

 

 

 

Congrats awesome AX let me get that info for you

grindstone says:
03/15/09 08:11PM

PHX/GS   open 242.5     current 244.5

17% over

83% under

 

New Jersey         open 203.5       current 201
 LA Clippers

63% over

37% under

mrod112 says:
03/15/09 08:01PM
ax & turc =read your posts and thanks for the all input but what do yall think of playing new jersey and over and wow that total huh? i been trying to read yall info on that game
trainer4u2 says:
03/15/09 07:17PM



nj/sac? ax walk away from the computer lol
trainer4u2 says:
03/15/09 04:34PM


ax zac is going to play i know it's the clippers but i see know value playing the under here with eric gordon and zac in the line up, they still will play to win and foul
my 2 cents
chrisb02us says:
03/15/09 07:55PM
Hopefully, Orlando keeps its 17 point lead well into the 4th, and Utah pulls their starters, and fold the tent for the night giving us the under.  I also took Orlando -5, and teased it (Orl Even, under 210)

 

chrisb02us says:
03/15/09 08:20PM
I am liking our chances w/ 3:55 left 
MPSJ says:
03/15/09 08:32PM
ax....

 

ty...anything on late games...1 winners short 4 week....

MPSJ says:
03/15/09 03:27PM
ax.....

 

just got in...how we doin today?

 

whats left to cash?

 

thx

MPSJ says:
03/15/09 03:42PM

thx bro...i missed the wedding...hope i dont miss the party...

are u done 4 the day?

dreadedrasta says:
03/15/09 06:06PM
lakers go under 209.5 after 120 pt 1st half

 

insatiable says:
03/15/09 08:45PM
good job buddy
insatiable says:
03/15/09 08:14PM
like the under on GSW and Over LAC. BOL

 

Lets get the under on the orl!

insatiable says:
03/15/09 08:20PM
ax, you like both under on the 2 late games buddy? GL buddy  
Granpa says:
03/15/09 08:28PM

That's funny as hell.

Granpa says:
03/15/09 08:37PM

Actually Joe's been quite helpful to several of us regarding CBB the past few days and has proven himself as a solid capper. He's offered me some solid advice and as mentioned earlier, turned me onto you (Champ also) as solid NBA cappers. It's great to finally find a few guys who are interested in helping, listening and conversing as normal people rather than a lot of people here who are more interested in touting their wins and units won. I'll definitely be around from now on.

Thanks!! Granpa

Granpa says:
03/15/09 08:43PM

Joe... Could certainly see as soon as I read through the posts Ax is a class act. Nice to have you both around and look forward to helping each other smash the books.

Granpa says:
03/15/09 08:56PM

As I just told Joe, it's hard to find people who can check their ego at the door while helping others. Just from what I've read today I can see this is a solid following with good people who have good insights. Glad Joe turned me onto to you and everyone else.

Think I'm going to call it a night. GL to you all.

G

Granpa says:
03/15/09 06:39PM

Most definitely, thanks for the invite.

Granpa says:
03/15/09 04:44PM
Afternoon Ax. Got turned on to your thread from Joe_Shmoe and it seems you really know your stuff. I see you discuss o/u FG, but do you ever look at 1h or 2h bets?

 

Thanks for your time.

 

Granpa

Granpa says:
03/15/09 05:33PM

Thanks for the reply and I'll definitely be checking your thread each day for capping info.

GL

collectNOW says:
03/15/09 08:52PM
Thanks for the utah under win axp   I bought 3 points to get it where you had it @205.5,but it's all good.A win is a win.I'm sure as word get's out about you,many will start tailing and  posting your picks as theirs.   Immitation is the best form of flattery,or just means there's a whole lot of wannabe's in the world.Continued GL to you!!!
collectNOW says:
03/15/09 09:03PM
Thanks joe     Sorry axp,but you seem ALOT  BETTER THAN THE AVERAGE GUY
irishone says:
03/15/09 07:57PM
no worries poorguy
irishone says:
03/15/09 08:45PM
UB4RSHapollo says:
03/15/09 09:01PM


ax - when I read post #491, im under the assumption you have a 4teamer there, am i wrong?
UB4RSHapollo says:
03/15/09 08:56PM



UB4RSHapollo says:
03/15/09 09:07PM


DOH! ahha i'm up for the day and week so i decided to end tonight with a possible bang. I just 4teamed that lol... 50 pays out 550
UB4RSHapollo says:
03/15/09 09:12PM


hahaa all good my man! let's just hope it hits for the both of us
UB4RSHapollo says:
03/15/09 06:08PM


thanks ax... you just schooled me also
Humbled2ManyTim says:
03/15/09 09:14PM
Ax -

Getting through this (at present) 21 pager is like slogging through 'War & Peace' (just kidding) - all good, though - always appreciate reading constructive collaboration.

And to you, good sir

And if Turc returns in this particular thread, a hearty as well...
Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 08:29PM


Good work everyone, thank you!
Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 07:12PM
They stopped scoring as soon as I changed it!


Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 07:04PM
time to turn off the TV and hope for the best

Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 04:11PM
I need a recap...   Been sleeping all day.

Gonna be work just going through this thread

Looks like I missed lots of nice unders today :(
Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 05:32PM


Okay, I lied... I scanned it
Gambleholic says:
03/15/09 05:17PM




Read it anyway as its the best part  

I have what's called Degenerate Gamblism, so sometimes I play 2 games a day, and take everyone's opinions into account.


NYCOWBOY says:
03/15/09 09:03PM
don't want to reiterate everything granpa wrote, so, I'll just say thanks - my first time reading your thread and it was good work/info/atmosphere - thanks again....
NYCOWBOY says:
03/15/09 09:06PM
by the way, that goes for everyone in here, you guys are great, I like to see it as US vs THEM, everyone lends a hand...GREAT WORK by ALL - THANKS.
madashman says:
03/15/09 08:38PM
18,000 hits in one day Great job today.  Got that under in both games (Bos/Mil for me) and got some more for the second half.  Any final thoughts on that NJ/LAC game?  Sorry for asking but can't really go through the last few pages of the thread.
rykersisland says:
03/15/09 03:56PM
cubboy says:
03/15/09 06:07PM
 ax so under 203 in jazz game was your strongest play
cubboy says:
03/15/09 06:10PM
cubboy says:
03/15/09 07:21PM
 joe are you taking over in cavs 2h
cubboy says:
03/15/09 08:42PM
 that i see thanks and good luck to all
cubboy says:
03/15/09 08:28PM
 thanks ax and thanks for pointing me to the man joe
cubboy says:
03/15/09 08:27PM
 up to 244.5 in suns total
cubboy says:
03/15/09 08:26PM
 lets get it back joe what you like ..  how is under looking in jazz game..ax
Fathomable says:
03/15/09 08:49PM
9 outta 9 unders so far today. if we only knew                      
Fathomable says:
03/15/09 05:30PM
im 2-0 today and thinkin bout pressing my luck with the sac/was game. does this line look bloated to anyone else? i know trends say to run away, but this line seems high to me.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:16PM
what do you think of these PnP?

team=Clippers and site=home and rest=0 and season=2008

and

team=Clippers and site=home and 100.*Average(oo:points < o:points@o:team and o:season)<50 and season=2008

first one is Clips at home no rest and second is Clips at home playing bad teams (<.500 teams)


axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:29PM

LOL...this is SDQL and you're suppose to copy it and paste it as a query on the SDQL engines on the web...sportsdatabase.com, killer cappers.com, etc.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:42PM

No man, perfect time to get your feet wet.  The hardest part is learning the language but I've already done that for you.  Go ahead PnP, try that out and a new world will be avalibale to you.  GL man... I'm a NOOB too.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:43PM
Please come back and give us your thoughts...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:44PM

All you needed to read was #1, about the goats and stuff then #50, the UOD.  LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:18PM
I'm with you though PnP, tough read.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:19PM

Damn, you went through this whole thread?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:52PM

When I get into one of those action junkie modes (once a month or so) I've been known to just sit back and watch 1H and play the 2H totals.  I rarely play 1H.  Some guys here have a nice routine for 1H that they share on this thread when the spot presents itself.  Thanks for stopping by and do us a favor and kill that book!!! 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:55PM

Yeah, that number is WHACKED...I went back to 1996 and did not find a number this high (NEVER 240+).  I posted the numbers for the 9 games published at 235+ and the under is a good play.  Can't remember what that was but it's on this thread.  Why not the under?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:52PM

yes, locked in when published
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:01PM


axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:02PM

You jinx'ed 'em KB...the under was ...well more like the over got 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:02PM

post #50
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:34PM

Fath...the bloated number is 244..  You never know what you're going to get with these two teams (29-102 combined).  Well, except bad play that is.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:54PM

Man, I got this and the NJ/SAC I'm debating.  actually maybe overanalyzing.  Gametime in 3 hours so I'm still on the fence!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:56PM

3 possessions but I woudn't go pounding anything.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 05:59PM

that's a tough one...we don't have any locks here ...we do have a value play #50  GL
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:00PM

axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:26PM

LOL  Congrats proguy...WE worked all night last night, together...you owe me nothing but that filet does sound nice.   bring out the dancers
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:44PM

Crockieeee!  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:38PM

you did brother, you did.   I'm afraid to to say i didn't take any action on my hometown C's: side or total.  damn game is STILL stressing me out thought...well played brother 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:29PM

Oh man Mad_S...that's some nice sh1t you're sayin.  Thanks brother, that means a lot from a capper like you.  Thank you sir, thank you.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:29PM

#50 bro
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:22PM
good point Turc.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:23PM

yes, last night, I would have bought it at 202, Turc has minimum value at 203...we got lucky this morning and locked in at 205.5


axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 03:24PM

NICE!  JJ also been to the window 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:15PM

Many already jumped on the U on this...I have not...I'm capping the NJ/ LAC game right now
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:25PM
Anyone on this yet...I know Chump likes this play

team=Nets and site=away and total>=200 and season=2008

and

team=Clippers and site=home and total>=200 and season=2008

Let's start with these and would love some feedback...we've got time to talk this out since it starts at 9:30 Eastern

Thanks guys
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:26PM

Good night Crockie..thanks for the input today.  

I'm going to hit tomorrow's board once the last game tips..Thank you.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:38PM

love your eye Turc 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:39PM

yep...that's what I was trying to get at...I'm on the other side of Chump on this. I think this will go over.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 04:40PM

Which way you leaning on this PnP?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:30PM

man, i didn't say anything then...it's such a sensitive thing with so many people ya know...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:32PM

yes bro...i said that last 5 of the 2Q was going to be telling...it told us a lot!!!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:04PM

point taken KB, thank you.  really strating to lean on the O on NJ/SAC...2 hours  to go
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:42PM
Joe, I actually have a spreadsheet that I enter numbers into when I want to pace a game out.  Geek stuff.  LOL  I love the ESPN CBB gamecast.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:18PM
that was the 'telling' part.  we've got a good pace and I agree with Turc.  
Hey, we're not going to win 'em all and we're certainly not going to win 'em all by 30.  We just need to be on the right side of the number when all is said and done.  Or as Turc would say, "It's not over until Carney Wilson sings".  I saw that a few weeks back and still crack up.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:26PM

it's ok once in a while bro...action junkie!  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:27PM

I know, I know...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:28PM

letting it ride!!!  liked this play last night, can't doubt myself now
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:29PM

i like that play Turc...almost like a gift if such things exist.  GL
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:01PM

that's hilarious!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:03PM

I'm actually trying to cap that game ...STILL...at this point, it seems like I'll be forcing a play either way.  That's not a good feeling.  An hour or so to go before tip
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:51PM

good to see ya brother.  we got UTA/ORL U...looking for some public info on the last two games for the night if you got 'em.  thanks man
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:57PM
I'm liking our chances...but not going to jinx anything 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:05PM

luck is a small part of it...I can't remember what percentage they've put on it but they've done studies...yes, studies.  luck has a singledigit  percentage role in the outcome of games.  that goes for good and bad...just so happens the under got the good and the over got the bad.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:10PM

LOL, you just schooled yourself bro, I just pointed you in the right direction. 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:49PM

Holy crap, when that dude said joe_shmoe turned him on to this thread, I thought he was kidding.  Sorry for doubting your existence Joe.  Will add now.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:03PM
yes, only one
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:08PM

actually my only play today so far...had other leans that turned out well
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:07PM
off to dinner fellas!  back to number crunching shortly for the final two games.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:07PM

 in the bank now...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:06PM

Joe...damn old friend...you crack me up man.  That PM was hilarious! 

I haven't had one of those 2H nights in a while...I've been a good boy and I'm trying to stay that way.  Come back and visit again soon "Joe"...if that's really your name!   Keep it hot pal, 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:07PM

What's going on???it's not that bad is it?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:52PM

hey man, I'll never turn a tip down.  I can't say I'll play it but I will always consider my options.  Thank you.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:54PM

No problem Hank...get yourself back in bed and take care of yourself...we need you healthy here pal.  Don't worry about us, just get yourself well.   off to bed.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 07:13PM

if it's "sizeable" then you got to go for it bro!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 06:58PM

The last 5 of 2Q is going to be telling.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:49PM

thanks pal.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:49PM
 god i love this avatar.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:46PM

LOL, i have a parlay for 1/20U on NJ O and PHO U.   
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:47PM

Great call as always Turc, when I saw your play...I knew!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:48PM

Thank you very much PnP, that means a lot to me.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:39PM

I haven't seen a sharp all day KB  but my parlay is the PHO U and LAC O.  why not?  please no tails, this is just for action...seriously 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:40PM

I've had a lean that way all day but I can't pull the trigger
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:44PM

We'd be happy to have another resource.  That's how we win here.  It's not me...it's all of us.  Chump is a solid no nosense guy.  you'll see him around.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:41PM

Thanks Joe. I appreciate the kind words 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:42PM

 thank you
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:30PM

welcome aboard...joe's an old friend 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:32PM

didn't realize Joe's an old friend.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:33PM

We've been on this damn game since 7pm last night post #50 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:34PM

I never get tired of this damn Riverdance Flippa...NEVER 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:34PM

Thank you sir
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:37PM

I'm glad you're a lot calmer now Eagle, you were worrying me more than I was worried about the game.  LOL 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:35PM

I know what kind of day you had PnP, I was there the whole time with ya.  This is the best possible outcome.  WINDOW!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:36PM

play just for action...look back about 15 posts
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:24PM

playing the public I think on a 1/20U parlay.  NJ/SAC O with PHO/GS U

axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:22PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by eagle123]
axpiota59

I am worry, any chance for us....
[/Quote

looking fine eagle...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:27PM
Eagle is hilarious...I'm not sure if I want to be in the sportsbook with you on an everyday basis.  Just kidding pal...all in good fun 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:25PM

I'm going to parlay this just for the action...I've been on the fence all day with this one.  rathing than forcing it...1/20U parlay will take the edge off 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:28PM

make your way to the window  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:29PM

Thanks pal..and really good to see you again..
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:15PM

Thank you for this brother, much appreciated!!!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:00PM
I like the 4Q numbers for both teams ...i need to shut up LOL 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:17PM
If I somehow pull this one off, I'll play 1/20U on a public parlay for the 2 late night games...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:18PM

Get it Joe, Get it!!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:19PM

Sorry pal...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:04PM

the team just to i.d. the game.  NJ O menat the NJ game over...just two plays.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:05PM

thank you, come back soon and give us your insight!!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:02PM

You know me well my man.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:58PM

Thank you very much...we got to cash in today.  I'm just your average guy and people seem to like to read what I write.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:59PM

welcome aboard, lots of great cappers here.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:01PM

See you soon Granpa
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:56PM
[Ticket #: xxxxxxxx] PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
03/15/2009 @ 06:15 PM NBA [890] TOTAL u244½-110 
(PHOENIX vrs GOLDEN STATE)
03/15/2009 @ 06:35 PM NBA [891] TOTAL o201-110 
(NEW JERSEY vrs LA CLIPPERS)

axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:50PM

Well, we hit a few...Can't wait for Crockie to wake up and see all these unders...LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 08:51PM

My pleasure
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:06PM

LOL, nope...just another guy. BUT I do have this one sharp eye for an out of place number...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:30PM
Can someone please tell my girl I'm a decent capper, she wants to use my time remodeling the damn house...I just want to cap games.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:20PM

anytime Korrupt...I think we started capping this mess last night...oh man, I'm tired.  Not too tired to collect.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:21PM

I'm with you...let me get my lucky boxers on...LOL.  I wish you the best 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:22PM

Too funny...Read #1 and #50 and you got the whole story.  LOL  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:18PM

Man, that's great.  I'm happy to see my friends are cashing in with me.  Thanks for the kind words pal.  We've got work to do, tomorrow is already here.  Love the dancers wth the money bags. 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:08PM

Cowboy, you'll start meeting the regulars when you come around...bunch of GREAT guys and plenty of skills in capping games.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:10PM

OH CRAP...sorry bro, damn, I have to make myself more clear.  I'm sorry brother.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:19PM

You nailed it alright.  It's a tough thing we do boss because there's so many factors to consider.  What's important in one spot may not be in another.  We have to sort through capping notes, spreadsheets, trends, watch the line movements, etc.  This isn't easy.  On top of that, when someone you respect has a differing opinion, you can't igmore that!

thanks for the kind words sir.  I know no other way to treat people.  Everyone has something to offer.  We all learn that way.

I'm not watching that track meet.  LOL, I'm watching the US about to mercy rule the Netherlands.  I'm almost in full MLB mode.  Had my draft last week for my dynasty league.  keep everyone and 2 round draft.  We are in our 9th or 10th year.  I strongly believe that if you're a capper, you MUST play fantasy sports.  

I am so tired of working the NBA everyday.  But there's plenty left to be made here pal...tomorrow is another workday! 
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:20PM
damn...121
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:44PM

LOL, been happening at the window alot lately. I'll join ya next time  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:47PM

Well, this is all I do...I have to work more than 20 minutes a day.  What would my girl say?  Oh yeah..."Can we remodel the livingroom and get new pavers for the driveway and collect more dogs and ..."LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:48PM
Ok guys...going to start capping Monday's games!   
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 09:43PM

Been with this one for over 10 years...this one's a keeper...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:31PM

staying the hell away...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:24PM
As with all my value thread, I always try to wrap it up with some closing words.  I want to thank everyone that dropped by today to add the little pieces that we needed to make this monster capper that's going to give the book a run for its money (embellishing obviously LOL).

Seriously, thank you for your insight, contributions, counter-arguments,etc.

Let's get 'em again Monday. Believe me when I tell you, if we work together instead of
bashing each other, we can all walk to that window together.

BOLTA

Ax
Mad_Skillz123 says:
03/15/09 03:25PM
Ax, buddy, dont you get it...????

You are saying those games have the value and all of them are betting right away and THEY move the line opposite from your favor...DAMN!!! And after you cant bet cause there is no value 3-4 pts from opened line


I locked LAL U212.5...GL buddy, whatever you play


ps. this thread is by far the best thing that has happened to covers
Crockie says:
03/15/09 03:41PM
Now I know why I loved the under @Milwaukee
Crockie says:
03/15/09 04:29PM
you're welcome have fun the next hours
Crockie says:
03/15/09 04:23PM
Ax here are the lines for tomorrow

San Antonio @ Oklahoma 189
Houston @ New Orleans 182
New Jersey @ Denver 208

Good night! 
FlippaCoin says:
03/15/09 08:30PM



           



I bought the Utah under at 205, bought some more at 203!!!
....because I BELIEVE!!!!

........ now I can give all my Riverdancers a raise.  
Thank you AX.  You are Gold!
FlippaCoin says:
03/15/09 09:36PM





Where can I get a pair??
I guess for now, I'll just were my heavily starched undies.
It will have to do, for now.
I might need to get a new maid. 

Please, don't exhaust yourself.
Really, you should value hunt for maybe 20 min to an hour....get some well deserved rest and wake up with a fresh pair of eyes in the morning.

Thanks again, to you, Ax
and ur awesome board of intuitive fellow contributors.
FlippaCoin says:
03/15/09 09:41PM
hmmmmm......

*wear* not were.
Not even a drop of beer in me, either.

Good night ALL.


JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 09:33PM
Ax, Sorry about bumping into you at the window earlier. I was too caught up doing this

 

Going take some time off to grill some steaks then I will be hitting tomorrows card.

 

GL on your late night plays

t20boss says:
03/15/09 09:50PM

Nailed it, Ax ! Called it at 192 last night, and that's what it was - all that worrying when the line dropped from 206 down to 203, all for naught. Should just stick with what we capped it at, instead of over-analyzing. I know Bruce was leaning on the over on NY/Clev - glad I went with my notes and JCW's validation on that under play as well. Never a doubt in that game.

After pooring thru all of the posts today, it's easy to see why so many new folks gravitate towards you, pal, and are discovering what many of us 'old-timers' have know for some time. You're a class act, who takes the time to respond to all who have a fair take and contribution to the cause.

Spent most of the afternoon starting to get into the MLB data - play a little fantasy baseball to go along with cappin' games, which seems to help you have a better feel for where a side/total  might end up each night. Like you, love pooring thru stats when I have the time.

Now just sitting back now and watching the GSW/Phx game w/o any defense being played whatsoever. Damn, it's like the pick-up games we used to play back in my college days....   

billy416 says:
03/15/09 09:06PM
1ST QUARTER CLIPPERS +0.5!! 3 units!...

POD!

 

KorrupteD says:
03/15/09 09:12PM
AX,Turc, and everyone else who has contribute to this great thread im GLAD we cashed in, i hit $1200.00 with my local bookie...this game took forever since it was my only play today which started at 6pm. Im glad we are on the winning side tonight..BOL Everyone.

Once again THANKS AX and TURC for your hard work and appreciate the good advice.
KorrupteD says:
03/15/09 07:18PM
fucking magics up by 20 and they pushing the ball and shooting with 16 secs on the shot clock left...thats why stan van gundy will never win a ring.
JJ802 says:
03/15/09 08:31PM
Great job ax, keep it up. 
NBA-plus says:
03/15/09 09:44PM
Dear JOE I'm glad to C U here @ this page I know U"ve been vevy good  with 1haft ncaab & 2haft so will you start to post game here ? please do JOE to have us make $$$

THANKS monky

NBA-plus says:
03/15/09 09:19PM
Hi joe
heartattack says:
03/15/09 04:10PM
axp, any opinions on the o/u for the suns/gsw game?
poorguy says:
03/15/09 05:49PM

Ax - What's the safety cushion for this orl/uta game? I want to pound it now but it's at 203. O_o

poorguy says:
03/15/09 07:16PM

I was shitting myself with both teams not missing anything in the 1st half. They need to stop scoring so much in the 2nd half :)

poorguy says:
03/15/09 06:52PM
Both teams need to brick their shots from now! They're not missing ANYTHING :o
poorguy says:
03/15/09 07:56PM
Is anyone sweating this one out? :P
poorguy says:
03/15/09 07:59PM
Well Superman's on the bench!
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 05:39PM


I guess I am still a noob...
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 05:02PM


The Nets have cracked the 100 point barrier the last 5 games in a row, with the 6th game at 99 points which should have been much more considering they shot 42.9% in that game against the Bucks. And this is a team that is 22nd in the league in pace factor.

On the other hand, Clippers went over 100 only twice in their last 10 games, with those against the run and gun Pacers and Warriors.

Tough game to read, IMO.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 05:26PM


I think there is something wrong with my computer or browser, but I am not sure what I am supposed to see whenever you post those.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 04:37PM
Hmmm.....

Over is 11-2 in NJ last 13 overall.
Under is 6-2-1 in LAC last 9 overall.

My feeling is that the Nets will get their`s, but will they concentrate enough on defense knowing they will own them offensively...
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 08:40PM


Absolutely agree with that second paragraph!!!
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/15/09 08:31PM
Thanks for another winner, ax! Line movement had me messed up so I only had half a unit at 204. Luckily I put an additional full unit for 2H U 104. So in essence, I gained half a unit more than I would have if I locked in at 206. Sometimes things work out!


canuckfan77 says:
03/15/09 09:11PM


Ax, You are waaaaayyy too humbl. We enjoy what you write because you don't just post plays and explain what you are thinking. This really helps people, especially a noob like me!

Thanks for sharing the wisdom, and and even more for being a class guy!

Good call on the Utah/Magic under Ax and Turc!  we're not worthy!!

All the winners from today   


cmobama says:
03/15/09 05:52PM
Hey handycappers

 

I only need "one lock" for tonight. Can I get just one?  Thanks

cmobama says:
03/15/09 06:00PM
And what is value play # 50?
cmobama says:
03/15/09 06:11PM
Hey Ax

 

Let me give you one lock, It is a future. Alabama to win NCAA National Champ---22/1 Money

 

cmobama1@charter.net

Philip_Rivers says:
03/15/09 06:07PM
Luck is on our side...Lakers Under pick cam through.  Now fasten sea belts...here comes Utah/ Orl.  Bol boys.


joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 06:42PM
Axpiota, please add me as a friend.  I want to PM you something.  Don't worry, I'm not going to ask you for plays or your system.
joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 06:56PM

Sent you that PM.

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 07:08PM
I got a pretty sizeable middling opportunity in the Cle game.  Damn, what to do, what to do.  Any suggestions Ax?  Anyone else in the same spot?
joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 07:16PM

Already played it.  Played it for .33 of my original bet. 

Gonna take the under in the Was 2H as well.  Just gambling today. 

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 07:01PM

Ax, go into degen mode.  Start tossing out 2H plays.  Do it brotha! 

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:00PM
Man, we need to get this guy named unitedpangea or something like that in here.   His avatar is of a dancing chicken.  It brings good luck.  I'll find him from one of my threads and drag him in here.
joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 07:26PM

yes, but only b/c i have the under for the game and it's a good middling opportunity for me.  only for .33 of my original bet.

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 07:46PM

I hate to admit it, but I do the same thing.  That's why I was asking.  Haha.

 

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 07:38PM

Ax, quick question.  What do you use to keep track of pace/efficiency for the games.  ESPN gamecast makes it really easy for ncaab, but not so much for NBA.  Do you just watch the scores and keep a mental track?  Thanks man.

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 07:30PM

Doubt yourself?  Hell, I doubled down on it!  I loved that pace to end the 2Q. 

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:56PM

CollectNow, I know you're one of the guys I told to check out Axpiota.  Just an FYI about Axpiota, he usually doesn't buy pts.  The best way to follow him IMO is to check his thread early on (he posts the night before as he is looking for value plays).

And just try to get the best lines possible but it's probably not a good idea to buy pts, especially more than just the hook!!!  Anyway, glad you made it here and glad you cashed. 

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 09:34PM

Good of you to join us.

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:35PM

Ax, I think eagle may be one of my "referrals".  Haha.  That's why I had to PM you.  I thought things might get interesting.

Cubboy and Granpa... I told you guys that Ax was the man to see.  He's been doing it all year long.  No one has a better record in the NBA, PERIOD.  And no one is as considerate and friendly either.  Real class act. 

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:49PM

check yor PM granpa.

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:17PM
Man, I need 6 pts in 17 secs in that Cavs game for the middle.  PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEE!
joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:18PM
Geez, 6 missed FT's in the last 3 mins.  That was my middle right there...
joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:20PM
What a dud.  Missed my middle.  Glad I only put .33 of my original play on it.
joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:21PM

under in phx game, over in clips game.

joe_shmoe says:
03/15/09 08:27PM
Money in the bank.  Good job as usual Ax. 
uwmattyk13 says:
03/15/09 03:48PM

I'm Confused
uwmattyk13 says:
03/15/09 03:34PM
Ax, looks like I found todays under to cover by 30, Mil/Bos just about to end, you take it at all??
bigal5409 says:
03/15/09 08:15PM
anybody?
bigal5409 says:
03/15/09 08:12PM
hello what the good play for for late game gs under and the nj ?
StreakForCash says:
03/15/09 10:59PM
suns over is on pace looking like 
StreakForCash says:
03/15/09 11:21PM
suns over 244 
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 10:34PM
forget this match and looking for tomorrow
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 10:23PM

can bet on over on second half ax?

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 10:13PM
2H line 121

 

go for over again?

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 08:55PM
Ax, I am from Hong Kong. Just because lost too much money on my own bet and search for betting forums to look for some advise.

 

Have to offline now.

 

Looking forward to smash the books with you in the future

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 09:30PM
looks like Sun will over on this one
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 08:14PM
both team pls slow down.....
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 08:20PM
axpiota59

I am worry, any chance for us....

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 08:25PM
1:43 left
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 08:26PM
looks like we are going to make it
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 08:32PM
Thank you so much ax and Turc
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 06:02PM
i also got LAL U, lucky win thought is over after first half.......
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 05:59PM
bet on under right? is that the only game you bet for today?>
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 05:48PM
axpiota59

 

Did you bet on the ORL/UTA game already?

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 07:17PM
axpiota59

half time 100, still have confidence on the U?

need to bet 103.5 O on SH ?

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 07:47PM

63-78 2:37 left in 3rd

any hopes guys?

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 07:34PM
seems like they are not slowing down.

 

worry.....

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 07:56PM
67-85

last quarter left

pls slow down to score.....please!!

eagle123 says:
03/15/09 06:05PM
GL to us
eagle123 says:
03/15/09 06:10PM

GL man, see u later

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