axpiota59's Blog

NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

By axpiota59 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, March 15, 2009 10:00 PM   472 comments
Back to work Monday.  No number set for this game yet but I have a very viable buy-in number @193.  This is a very realistic number that the books could release.  I'm thinking even a higher published number.  Give it to me and I will buy the under @ 193+

Portland at Memphis 
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ashdogs says:
03/15/09 10:04PM
thunder +6,5
trainer4u2 says:
03/15/09 10:07PM
just a thought raps just got their 1st taste of a win
jlippens says:
03/15/09 10:09PM


Axp's threads are about discussing O/U's (and more specifically, UNDERS) only.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:23PM
Thanks Miami, good start to some research!
chump says:
03/15/09 10:30PM
AX ... Already locked into the 189 1/2 under in the Sa / OKC game tomorrow ... but  number is tight ( I get 184 ) ... I see Durant being held in check and SA dictating the tempo ... interesting to note that OKC is 13-20 O/U at home.

 

Looks like we all had a great Sunday ... you got 'em all buzzing ... I love it !!!  

proguy747 says:
03/15/09 10:31PM

189 opener for portland/ memphis

191.5 spurs/OKC

184.5  nawlins/ houston

210  njn/denver

axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:37PM

That's EXACTLY the number I have and the reason I haven't locked in is my 3 possesion rule.  The O/U number you mention is even more compelling when you throw SAS as the other team.

We did have a nice Sunday pal.  I can't believe how a simple thread about the Gladiators, Romans, and goats turned into an Ides of March orgy of information...I too love it Chump!
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:38PM

PG, who's got these numbers?
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:41PM

This is too funny Turc...I didn't even look at this game because you had mentioned it earlier and If you were going to call this play, I didn't want to step on your toes...  I'll take a look pal.
proguy747 says:
03/15/09 10:45PM
vegas insider published these as opening numbers.  Not sure on the books though.
proguy747 says:
03/15/09 10:46PM
sportsbook has houson at 182
jlippens says:
03/15/09 10:46PM


Be careful if you're basing OKC's performance at all on recent results. They're a hundred times better defensively without Durant in the lineup (but really only ten times the team overall without him).

He scores points yet doesn't actually care about playing the game of basketball. He would be in heaven on a Donnie Nelson team.
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 10:50PM

I'm hoping offshore numbers are going to be a little more attractive
fatdan215 says:
03/15/09 10:51PM
Whats going on Ax...Back to reality after a heavy night of drinking and smoking ridiculous...Didnt even make it to the phone today to cakll my local to place bets but hell i would have done shit today....But looking to following your play tomorrow....BOL BRO
SHAKEtheBOOK says:
03/15/09 10:53PM
FATDAN KUSH UP IN THE AIR MY MAIN MAN
Hizay says:
03/15/09 11:36PM
Ax, i saw you mentioned in one of the threads back the website where you run all the querys that you have shown, but i can't seem to find it can you list that site again.
Thanks
chump says:
03/15/09 11:05PM

Durant is somewhat a popinjay ... he likes to hear himself talk and loves to watch himself on ESPN highlights !!!

Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 03:25AM


http://www.covers.com/sports/nba/basketball-matchups.aspx  (click on match ups, then stats)

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/referees/current_assignments.html  (ref assignments - o/u stats)

Its a good idea to at least review these basic stats for each match up.  Its very easy research, just takes some time.

Also see the sports data base dot come link that Ax posted.

Happy capping
Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 03:26AM
Oh yeah, and look at the days rest stats in the matchup page for every game. You can see how teams score vs the total when they are rested vs not rested.
timemaster says:
03/16/09 12:57AM
always great work AX
chi23city says:
03/15/09 11:05PM
hey ax.. been reading a lot of your post lately..

 

great info man..

 

if im not mistaken i read that NBA isnt even really your sport.. lol

 

but yet... YOU KILL IT.. HAHAHA

 

please tell me BASEBALL is your specialty.. i can not wait until the season gets going..

 

GO SOX..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(WHITE SOX) LMAO

chi23city says:
03/15/09 11:08PM

 

 

MIAMI.. Where do you get you STATS from if you dont mind me askin.. i love how it this does all the math for you with all the avgs and margins

 

thanx ahead of time

clutch22 says:
03/15/09 10:56PM
i can get 189 right now at loagans on the Sanantonio game. should I take it?
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 01:16AM
i do think that the Houston game have a good chance of getting over as yahoo sports shares this info.

"New Orleans is allowing 93.5 points per game and Houston 94.8. At some

point, however, both clubs are going to need more scoring than they got Saturday

night, as Houston lost 88-85 to San Antonio and New Orleans fell 97-79 to

Chicago."

is it me? or does the info shouts OVER all over ?

nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 01:12AM
i do think that the Houston game have a good chance of getting over as yahoo sports shares this info.

"New Orleans is allowing 93.5 points per game and Houston 94.8. At some

point, however, both clubs are going to need more scoring than they got Saturday

night, as Houston lost 88-85 to San Antonio and New Orleans fell 97-79 to

Chicago."

is it me? or does the info shouts OVER all over ?

nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 01:50AM
I really don't know man, but fatigue factor of Houston plus the situational plays for this game should go under.  So its either way!  Quite a hard game to cap imo.  Maybe the Charlotte, toronto and Nets, nuggets game would be better?
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:00AM

Gotta agree with you there...there are signals pointing everywhere.  Trends say one thing, stats say another, now add the situational and you can spin that in a few ways.  I'm not locking in overnight since there's just no value in doing so.  Going to wait until noon or so when the west coast is finally up and moving.  The lines should start to settle in shortly thereafter.  I should know by then if there's even going to be any action for me.  My only lean right now is for the "day off".  GL with your card and if I may say, a day off wouldn't hurt after a "not so good" day.  Start fresh Tuesday...you're really not going to miss anything with Monday's card.  IMHO.

Take care pal 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:35AM

After I posted this I started asking the same questions PnP.  This is a sure sign of forcing a play.  I've been doing this long enough to see the signs but unfortunately, I haven't learned a damn thing because I'm still ignoring them.  I'm on this site because I'm a gambler.  I thought I was under control most of the time...The demon shows its face at these moments.  Ok, I'm going to regroup and if there's no play...there is NO PLAY.  Thanks PnP..i needed that . 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:39AM

Thanks for sharing this...this certainly adds to the anti-under play argument plus you have a few cappers that agree with you on this.  I really initially thought over the second I saw the number...after some digging, I'm not so sure.  I don't know if you looked at my reply to Turc.  I'm just not sold on either side right now.  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:40AM

now, there's a great idea JCW...I may just join you
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:59AM

Thank you sir. 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:34AM

now it's time to find a winner but I'm not holding my breath.  The 193 I'm looking for in the POR/MEM game is not happening.  This sucks!  If there are no major line movements, I'm taking the day off.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:07PM

Well, I initially thought that this was an overs play after seeing the number but both times this year these two have met has gone under the number with an avg total of 182 and covering the under by 13 points.

NO this year when the number is less than 185 O/U 4-8 and again avg line @183 and covers the under by 3.  Take this spot to NO at home and the O/U is 3-3 avg total 184 and under covers by 2

HOU this year when the number is less than 185  O/U 8-8 with the avg total @181.5 and over covers by 3.  In 2009, O/U 2-4 avg line is 182 and over covers by 3.  Take this spot on the road and the O/U is 6-5 avg line 182 and over covers by 3.

HOU on the road this year (2009) vs good teams .600+ (O/U 1-3)
NOH at home this year (2009) vs good teams .600+ (O/U 2-3)

may have to go to the stats and situational on this one...


axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:09PM

LOL fatdan...we all need a day off.  Let's get back on track for Monday.  We're already looking at our options.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:10PM

Chump loves it and I'm still capping...I'm slow on the uptake sometimes  LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:13PM

LOL, I do ok in the NBA, it's just a lot of work.  I'd like to think MLB is my main gig.  It's been profitable in the past and I just love the game.  Thanks for reading my rants.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:14PM
Aint that the truth?  These kids...
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:45PM

TIme to get to work JCW
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:47PM

Turc, you've been a capping madman.  you took last Thursday off and that's just not going to do it.  The board doesn't look that great so why not.  If my one game doesn't land the right number...I'm out.  Good night brother, take care of that stuff at work so you can come back and do the stuff you love.  
axpiota59 says:
03/15/09 11:48PM

sportsdatabase.com or killercappers.com

GL
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:50AM
I was just thinking that maybe the best value for tomorrow would be NJ+ and I ran into yoyo's thread and I'm almost sold.  Let's face it guys, we're not seeing the totals value we're used to seeing.  I'm going to need serious help if I cap this side but I got great cappers here.  yoyo's been money and that's not a bad capper to support a thought.  

or...if you think I'm nuts...say so.  LOL  "stick to unders Ax, you nut"
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:51AM
damn, you're cashing nice Phil_Riv!  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:52AM

We can't start forcing play pal.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:55AM
BTW...Does anyone remember who promised me those filet mignons from Cali if we hit that UTA/ORL UNDER?

I'm hungry...


JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 12:10AM
Here is what I got minus the Nets/Nuggets:
Raps/Bobcats 189.5
Spurs/Thunder 189.5
Blazers/Grizz 191
Rockets/Hornets 181.5
JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 12:15AM
I don't see where I'm going to get a play. Maybe the Nets/Nuggets will look better, off to cap it now.
JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 12:22AM
I'll look at the Nets/Nuggets tomorrow to make sure Devin Harris is out
JCWhy83 says:
03/15/09 11:29PM
Well time for me to punch the clock and get my numbers together. Tomorrow's games don't look too attractive at first glance to me.
JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 01:14AM

I think I will just take tomorrow off and gear up for Tuesday's board where I think there could be 3-4 games with nice value.  
JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 12:49AM

Looks like I won't have a play for tomorrow either and that means no total 4 out of the last 6 days. That usually send me to the sides and thats  time. I think I can withstand the temptation tomorrow in part to a nice day today. I hate the end of the season 
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/16/09 01:10AM


Can the Nets stay competitive without their floor general, Devin Harris? Usually teams will step it up after their star is sidelined but that effort might have but used up in today's gut-wrenching loss which dawn on them as well. Not to mention that the Nets dealt Denver their worst loss of the season back in the Swamp, so revenge will definitely also be a factor. Wince also played 43 minutes tonight.

But on the other hand, yoyo has been hitting at a ridiculous 70% clip, so it might not be wise to fade him.
Philip_Rivers says:
03/16/09 12:48AM
If anyone deserves a day off it's you and Turc. I cashed in two weeks in a row thanks to you guys providing these boards as a tool for our success.  

BOL as always brother.  Hope to see you in dialogue tomorrow.


highside107 says:
03/16/09 11:19AM

ax - not sure if I asked you this before, but what kind of bets do you typically do in MLB? Sides or totals?
success1 says:
03/16/09 12:17PM
Port/Mphs now 188 at my book......
grindstone says:
03/16/09 11:50AM

Looks like the line is stabilizing around 204.5, therefore what should we look for AX in the next couple of hours??

grindstone says:
03/16/09 11:30AM
Het AX here the lastest % public

 

NJ/Denv        open 208     current 204

 

66% over

34% under

 

OK  AX, Vegas drives this line down and public is all over the over  and they keep dropping it. This reminds me of the PHX/GS game yesterday the line kept rising the public was all over the under.Over game is esy. This might have the same intention.What do you think AX???

 

Also lastest numbers

 

Port/Mem     open 189     current 188

75% over

25% under

Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 11:20AM
Guys, I think that was my post that messed page 3 up. Sorry

MODS!  please delete the one post jacking this up.  I was having trouble trying to past a table.
Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 11:23AM
My conclusion of looking at the basic stats for days rest on the Denver game was eliminate it from a potential unders play.  There would have to be good situational factors to consider it.  Probably not worth the effort to dig real deep.

I find it easier to eliminate games from potential plays, and then focus on the possibles.
Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 11:25AM
However, the line is now 204.5, and I saw 208 last night.... either someones in/out or someone thought unders was good.
Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 03:38AM
Initial look at the NJ/Den game take it off the board as an option.

Denver Under 208

NJ 10-8 12-6-0 103.1 101.7 204.7 13-5

1 Day Rest  





DEN 25-11 21-14-1 106.3 100.9 207.2 23-13


There would have to be a juice situational factor for this to be considered.

Ref assignments are not out yet.  Just showing a way to use the above links, powered by covers.
Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 03:39AM
Here, this should be better....(sorry)

Days Rest

NJ 10-8 12-6-0 103.1 101.7 204.7 13-5
DEN 7-11 8-10-0 94.4 99.8 194.2 6-12
1 Day Rest  
NJ 9-20 13-15-1 95.5 100.9 196.4 14-15
DEN 25-11 21-14-1 106.3 100.9 207.2 23-13
2 Days Rest  
NJ 8-6 7-7-0 101.5 100.1 201.6 5-9
DEN 5-1 3-3-0 104.7 98.7 203.3 2-4
3 Days Rest  
NJ 1-4 2-3-0 96.0 104.2 200.2 4-1
DEN 5-2 3-4-0 104.6 99.0 203.6 3-4

Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 03:40AM
Bruuuuce78 says:
03/16/09 12:39PM
I hate all these totals, I hope they all go to hell and over..............so we can get some great up and coming lines.......

 

BOL

sharpster_XX says:
03/16/09 11:36AM
That denver line is waaaaaaay too sharp its under or nothing

Ole_Gunslinger says:
03/16/09 10:43AM
POR/CHA total is 194 @ Pinnacle. Looks like an under play.
Ole_Gunslinger says:
03/16/09 10:50AM



Forty7 says:
03/16/09 09:30AM
Sorry i have had very little time the last three days, and like i am going to follow ...that many posts insane.  Thanks for the OM play i hope it stayed your POD and you stayed away from GSW!

 

Monday's the lines seems tighter to me.

 

But i like what i see so far.

Forty7 says:
03/16/09 09:34AM
KillerKardoogan says:
03/16/09 04:11AM
hey Ax, u mind telling me why a smart dude like u would ever take NJ tomorrow. I'm interested to hear.

I've got Den at 70% to cover the 9, which makes it a slightly above avg play for me.

BTW a good buddy of mine is a jarhead-capper. He did 2 tours in Vietnam, only to return home, go to his mailbox and find a letter telling him that he had just been drafted into the army.

axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:17AM
This thread looks whacky...format wise.  Is it just me?

Gambleholic...you come up with a conclusion to the NJ/DEN research?
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:17AM
I'll play along  BUMP
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:09AM

Ouch...that's a funny and not so funny story about your buddy.  

Semper Fi to him.

As for your NJ Q.  I retracted that comment after I put some thought into it.  It was late, I was frustrated at Monday's card.  I needed an overnight play...Man, I was forcing the issue which is never good.  There are times when I have to keep those thoughts in my head.  LOL

axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:12AM

no problem forty...geez, when i called for an Ides of March celebration, that is not what I expected.

Monday numbers extremely tight IMHO.  Like I said, I'm going to start shopping again around noon or so after the West coast settles into their daily routine.  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:14AM

LOL, I remember who it was.  He offered me a filet from the best butcher in Orange county.  Yummy.  He's a good guy.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:56AM
I would jump on this TOR/CHA if it weren't for the significant deviation from the way these teams have play.  In recent performances, both are scoring more and allowing more by numbers you simply can't ignore.

I'll do some trend analysis in a bit..
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:57AM

Looking that way so far Eagle
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:45AM

That sir is the number I am looking for.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:46AM

Check that...that's the TOR number...not POR
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:18AM
Hey Flippa.  Much better!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 11:44AM

Thank you for this grindstone.  Interesting observation.  It's really turning out to be one of those days.  I'm not liking the fact I'm trying to put a spin on these games in my head to justify a play.  The west coast is going to get moving soon and they'll have their say.  Let's give it a few ours and see how the numbers turn!  Thaks pal
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 11:26AM

That's come up a lot...I am a dog ML guy with some totals in certain spots.  I stay away from run lines...
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 11:27AM

No prob gambleholic...flippa and I just bumped to pg 4...all good now
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 11:28AM

agreed.  I dug even a little deeper and value starting to creep up on the other side of this...'O" my
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 11:09AM

Get some rest pal...Tuesday may have something to offer.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 11:46AM

I'm leaning towards the latter unless I can come up with that objective gem that tells me I'm not making the play up in my head.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 11:47AM

ash, you seeing a similar response from the team tonight?
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:05PM

I'm going to see if this moves up even higher.  I'm also going to be interested in the public ratio and where they start to settle in at.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:06PM

There's a plan...Working for the man.   LOL  enjoy the day off JCW!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:09PM

LOL, that's the life ash...wife shopping and you capping in your head.  These games just have so many different angles to 'em.  Gotta hand it to the guys in the back room, they did their homework.  Good luck shopping man!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 12:09PM
will be back in a few hours guys.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:36PM
Ok guys, I'm back...I was trying to find out why WBA was boxed.  Give me a chance to catch up.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:39PM

Wow, the previous numbers in this matchup just doesn't jive with this low number.  I was so sure the books were going to give us a lot more to work with.  I think yesterday's unders orgy has something to do with today's numbers.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:41PM

now what do we have here????  it does help to put these numbers next to each other.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:43PM

Mad_S,  isn't it just great to play with house money???  there's no greater feeling in the world!  Keep it hot my friend!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:45PM
Hank, that didn't format correctly:

Tor/Char 199
188

SA/OKC 181
184

Port/Mem 185
186

Hou/NO 190
177

NJ/Den 206
208
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:46PM

I'm with you here...nothing
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:47PM

Tuesday Bruce..Tuesday pal
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:48PM

Under Joe?
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:49PM

I'm going to throw these next to Hank and my numbers to get a big picture view.  Thanks pal
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 10:33AM

Thanks Flippa, I have some business to attend to anyway.  I just looked over the board again and that NJ/DEN game keeps jumping at me.  12 now...I know, I've been "flippaning" back and forth (you like that?).  Still no action for me.  Will be back in a bit.  
SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 12:49PM
Today's Accuscore as of 12:45pm EST:

 

Charlotte by 3.6 and 189

Portland by 2.7 and 185.7

NO by 7 and 184.6

SA by 8 and 187.8

Den by 9.9 and 208.1

Mad_Skillz123 says:
03/16/09 12:33PM
nice hit last night on the lakers under Ax...i cant believe how was that possible??? I gave up from my ticket @HT...and then...87 pts in 2H for the under....just great....love it...when its going...ITS GOING!!!

this is one of the best months i have had in betting...January was excellent but March...omg...great!!! and its still 17th, thats the good part   and damn...no good value on the prop plays

gl on your plays buddy 
Mad_Skillz123 says:
03/16/09 12:34PM
btw, i still can go with U 208.5 denver game...but i dont know if i pull the trigger...still havent decided yet
FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 01:20PM


Lines are pretty low today.
Maybe because most of the games yesterday were Unders?

FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 01:25PM


Wow, not cool.
Turc has had plenty of picks different from Ax.
When a game is that "juicy" then it's not uncommon to have similar picks.

Larry,
Percentages that I use are from Oddstracker, sponsored by Covers.  Which is the same with SportInsights.
Reiterating....
I'm not sure how accurate they are but if someone has something better, then please share.

FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:23AM
Yay........  Page 4.....

Good morning Ax.
I see you guys hard at work, last night.
Your time is much appreciated. 
However, I do think that taking a day off now and then is a good idea.

If it don't look juicy, no need to force it. The shopping cart will always be there.

Again, Thank you for Utah under.  
FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:15AM
Good morning Ax,

uh...oh...
this page is messed up.
FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:15AM
Help.....




FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:15AM
page 4 up, yet???
FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:16AM
bump
FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:16AM


FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:16AM
FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:18AM

IT won't come in here.  I tried b4.

FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:17AM
JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 12:00PM
GL to you guys today. Looks like I will be on the sidelines unless the Raptors/Bobcats total can somehow jump 2 points. Guess I can focus on my day job all day today
ashdogs says:
03/16/09 12:03PM
no idea ax, but taking unders here just looks to easy.. while be going through scenarios while im taking wife shopping.. im such a zoombie in the mall
ashdogs says:
03/16/09 11:45AM
they keep on driving it down, because harris obviously out.. but didnt you guys see last night what happend when he got hurt?
LarryD123 says:
03/16/09 01:20PM
grindstone or anyone else,

 

could you tell me where you get your public percentages, especially on O/U?? thanks

proguy747 says:
03/16/09 01:33PM
Good afternoon ax.   Last night I locked denver 208 under and nuggs -10.  I will say this everybody thinks about the player injured the team will rally thing.  That is true except for the point guard position.  The last point guard injury that I remember is nash.  Maybe there is #s with him being out of the line-up.  I think this is why the number changed so fast.  At 208 I believe it was a good play.  Nj offense is all about the guards. Billups and anthony will win this matchup.  Now with harris out nj will struggle big time with noone to set-up the offense becuase carter is a ball hog.  My only hestation about the current line of 13.5 is denver has some lazy players.  They did this against the clippers.  The nuggs barely covered the 13 points becuase they did not have a strong effort and took some points off.   I have considered middling my nugs bet on the fact that the under at 208 is good in my mind.  

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

Joe_Vienna says:
03/16/09 01:24PM


http://www.covers.com/sports/sports-matchups.aspx
Joe_Vienna says:
03/16/09 12:47PM
NJN @ DEN is the play!

BOL
Joe
eagle123 says:
03/16/09 10:56AM
Good morning Ax

So confirm to take a day off tonight?

eagle123 says:
03/16/09 11:07AM

ok, I am too tired that and need to get some sleep

will check out again tomorrow morning and see if you have any good advise

eagle123 says:
03/16/09 11:13AM
oh, forget to tell you that we have time different, it is monday night 23:12 down here, tomorrow morning means Monday night game in your side
BIGGEDD17 says:
03/16/09 06:21PM
AX YOUR THREADS ARE.......GREAT JOB,THANKS FOR THE INSIGHT
BIGGEDD17 says:
03/16/09 06:58PM

Got here late..with yao out does that make it a play for you?going through all of this thread is hard to find the answer..thanks

BIGGEDD17 says:
03/16/09 07:08PM

BIGGEDD17 says:
03/16/09 07:19PM
The more i look at the Hous/Norlens game i think w/o Yao tonight Hous will look to run a little more than usual.Therefore i think Hous will put up @94 pts tonight and Norleans will win this one,so i see the over 181has some value..looking @190-196 total..gl ev1 whichever way you go.... 
success1 says:
03/16/09 06:26PM
AX, do u buy the hooks?  My book is 194.5 on ur under Tor.........thx   (hate to get beat by the hook!).....
success1 says:
03/16/09 06:35PM

 

I hear ya!  lol!   Now I know.

playaplaya says:
03/16/09 06:11PM
Been reading your stuff ax..like what you are doing..Im going to tail your thread tonight. got it at 194 ..-105..! GL to us!
grindstone says:
03/16/09 06:36PM
Here are the lastest numbers % public

 

Tor/Char       open 194    current 194

 

50% over

50% under

 

GL AX let's do it

 

 

grindstone says:
03/16/09 07:01PM

4 mins left

 

52% under

48% over

grindstone says:
03/16/09 06:50PM
Right now 52% over and 48% under
grindstone says:
03/16/09 06:55PM
Back to 50-50
grindstone says:
03/16/09 06:44PM

No problem Bro I will update up until game time.

Still sitting at 50-50

grindstone says:
03/16/09 07:06PM

GL AX let's do it Pare

BigWaveDave says:
03/16/09 03:13PM
WOW!!!!!!!!!
Little slow today  - rushing off to work.
Just noticed the 2.5 possession cushion you had on the SA / OKC under is now gone as the line has dropped from 189 to 187!!!!

What's most interesting is the 85% of people betting the OVER!!!

Hmmmm...............wish I had taken the 189 last night.
I figured a .5 point cushion off for axpiota59 would be good enough for me............
trainer4u2 says:
03/16/09 04:34PM
Ax rockets/hornets not an under game. we hit nice on the clippers over!
trainer4u2 says:
03/16/09 06:21PM
Granpa says:
03/16/09 05:08PM

Thanks Ax. At least I'm on the right track. Just need to see where the actuals come in tonight compared to what I've got.

Granpa says:
03/16/09 04:10PM
Afternoon everyone. Being a noobie I'd like to know how much the last 4 to 5 games played by each team (not head to head) factors into your o/u calculations. I haven't run any numbers yet, but I would think teams recent play would be a factor when analyzing the numbers? Please let me know if I'm way off base on my thinking.

 

Thanks, G

Tailer187 says:
03/16/09 07:09PM
Lets get this one parekoy
collectNOW says:
03/16/09 03:53PM
Thanks axp....i won't buy(wish a woman  could tell  us  that) and will wait to see if 5d sets it at 195
collectNOW says:
03/16/09 03:18PM
AXP....5dimes has the char-tor total at 194.Since you have it ending at 188,wouldn't this be a play since it's a 3 possession game.....unless you are counting 3 pointers as a possession.I think if it goes up to 195 on 5 dimes,it's definately a play.What you think?
collectNOW says:
03/16/09 04:25PM
Char-tor up to 194.5 on 5d....i'm biting    Thanks axp and everyone.This is my only play along woth atl-wash 1st period over 1.5 goals
collectNOW says:
03/16/09 04:29PM
oops..hit send too fast.That atl-wash play is in hockey.I have been doing well on those 1p overs.aj pierzynski and   superbeets were hot doing those and got me hooked   GL to all. 
fatdan215 says:
03/16/09 06:36PM
So the play is Raps under...I got to go do some work and see how i like this one Ax...
fatdan215 says:
03/16/09 06:45PM

Ax im sticking with my gut and playing the over this game can definently go either way and im sticking with the over it all depends how the Craptors come out and play....They can put up a 100 any game but they can also let up 100 any game but im just sticking with this and one of us will get the "W"....BOL BRO

Ole_Gunslinger says:
03/16/09 05:41PM
Hey Ax, any early thoughts on ORL/CLE tomorrow? Line seems pretty high @ 194. With those elite teams clashing for the top seed in the east I can see alot of def tomorow.
Forty7 says:
03/16/09 04:37PM

 

Vegas Insider has 78% DN - points and 84% on ML and  63%Under

Forty7 says:
03/16/09 02:37PM

 

Forty7 says:
03/16/09 02:26PM
Ok one of the things i like to look at in these tight games and days is the public support on the side play. 

 

Denver is off the charts favorite by 13 or so.  Noway they cover 13 with 90% public support.  So lets say they win by 9.  Denver 107 and NJNets 98.  So what is next?  If you cap it at 208 as do I, we believe NJ will show up. 

 

Devein Harris is a great player but he is no point guard! Like Steve Nash a true point guard.  NJ covers and it goes well not Under.

Forty7 says:
03/16/09 02:34PM
IMHO  the only two Under plays tonight that even warrnt discussion.

 

Bob's both travelked to get here.  Rapt's and Bob's would rather play defense.

 

Hornets and Rockets both under machines as of late.

 

These four teams are the opposite of the Suns Nuggets Warriors.

 

 

 

 

cubboy says:
03/16/09 07:37PM
 just got home what is your play
CoFred says:
03/16/09 02:30PM
I agree Ax. If I were ever to pay attention to those plays, I would fade them as well. They always seem to be losers.
Fathomable says:
03/16/09 04:35PM


that atlanta game looks nice at first glance
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 04:56PM

Methuen!!!! right up 93...thank you sir
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 04:57PM

from playing anything at all.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 04:58PM

NJ plus all them free points and NOT the under???
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:02PM

For me personally...this shows me momentum in either direction.  This is the statistical analysis I refer to (as the regulars know), as the 'what have you done for me lately" factor.  In stats, it's called exponential smoothing.  You are not off base at all.  Now it's up to you to determine how much weight you want to give this data.  GL
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:02PM

you have quite a few here with you on this one.  GL 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:04PM

very BOL to you.  I'm rooting for you!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:05PM

Good night Crockie and as always thank you and wake up to some winners if you got any live ones tonight!  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:07PM

damn, I love this!...you guys are all over this game.  Now I'm going to have to seriously consider tailing.  I love this forum...
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 03:17PM

It's a mess today Dave...enjoy your day at work, you're not missing anything with today's card. 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 03:46PM

Oh man, slim pick'ens and actually a little value there.  can't foreclose on this opportunity if it presents itself.   that's me in the mirror punching myself
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 03:49PM

Thank you sir...this is very timely info.  That's alot of $$$ moving these.  If you hear anymore, please let us know...thanks again.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 03:27PM

yeah, you can never ignore the possibility of a three point play either from the arc or in an "and 1" situation.  That's why I consider 7 points to be the minimum value for a 3 possession cushion.  Sounds silly to some but it's just the way I've always decided my plays.  Let me add, as a reminder, that you shouldn't buy this number up because the value disappears and creating artificial value is no value at all.  Let the board dictate where the value is.  Lot of board watching for us today.  it may pay off , it may not.  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:34PM

Concrete argument...I'm slowly starting to get pulled back into this game...both the side and the total.  Given one play only, would I go with the 13 freebies or the NOT under???
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:35PM

doesn't it strike you as odd that both plays they publish are unders after a day like yesterday?  I often wonder who the ghost writers are.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:54PM

Wow...play nice chase.  Turc has come up with some clutch plays and he's a hell of a handicapper.

There was some  going on with that play last night.  The over got  hard on the LAL play.  I need to see some trending after an unders day like yesterday.  It seems all the lines are just a bit lower today.  I hope the books just overadjusted and get burned tonight...just wishful thinking.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 01:55PM

I think i should have read this first before I posted my last comment.  Good call flippa!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:02PM

You've got a nice middle here proguy.  You have to look at this from a business perspective.  It cost about a dime a hook.  You've got seven dimes of value by risking one dime in a middling opportunity.  Why the hell not?  If it were me, since I'm really not crazy about this game anymore, you have a great chance to score some big bucks on what I would call a NO PLAY situation.  Your guradian angel has given you a gift!!!  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:06PM

Excellent point and I wish we had more tracking to go on.  I love the fact that you tracked this against the delta and not actual numbers.  This is a very telling indicator.  One I use often but with my own buy-in numbers.  Hence my obsession with the 3 possession cushion (7+ points).  I'm about to compare your previous numbers to the others I've already posted.  Since TOR won last night, we really have nothing to go on.  When was the last time TOR was in this spot?  Coming off a win.  LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:08PM
Tor/Char 199 HANK
188 AX
189 ACCU

SA/OKC 181
184
187.8

Port/Mem 185
186
185.7

Hou/NO 190
177
184.6

NJ/Den 206
208
208.1

does this tell us anything???
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:09PM

LOL Joe...
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:13PM
Have you guys seen the Pick n Roll cover's NBA best bets?  I tend to fade these plays as I go through my capping routine but take a look...two unders?
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:38PM

Wow, on the money analysis 

team=Hornets and o:team=Rockets and date>=20071231

you locked in?
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:41PM

I can respect that...we have 4 hours to find that gem that calls one of these games.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:44PM

thanks rain...any idea how this is doing this year?  I know the service has a hell of a following but he's spread thin across all sports.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:48PM

Zeus, you feel comfortable calling this the UOD?  These numbers are compelling to say the least!  We can wait and monitor the numbers but it's hard to argue against this and my #24 post


axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:51PM

My thoughts also my friend...I have a heavy lean on NOT the Under in that NJ/DEN matchup.  It looks like a no brainer but we are afterall still guessing.  Why can't I get that book from "back to the future?" 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 02:58PM

BOL to you sir 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 03:01PM

Thaks for the insight Z...I'll be calling my game later today if I have anything at all.  GL with this 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 03:01PM

thanks rain...with today's card, every little bit helps.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 03:10PM

Here's a good number to look at...DEN has been DD favs at home 6X this season.  O/U is 4-1-1 avg total 205.5 (higher than the current 204.5) and covers the over by an average of 6 points.  according to these numbers, the total lands on 211-212 tonight.  That's the 3 possession cushion I'm looking for.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:42PM

Well thank you and welcome!  I am a statistical capper first only because that's the method I use to spot funny numbers.  Without going into details and boring the crap out of the regulars that's heard this a million times  I cap games hard with stats, trends and situational only if they are identified as having a questionable number.  Every game is different so the I weigh these factors accordingly.  From there, I post these games in here and have this great group of cappers go at it in a very civilized manner.  We don't ever just agree on everything which is what makes this so great.  I'm just one of the many cappers in here and my opinion is no more important that all the others.  My responsibilty is to start the thread and direct the conversation to finding that gem of a play.  The Under of the Day.  

I'm going to keep my user name's origin to myself for now.  No disrespect to you sir.

Thank you for stopping by...
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:30PM

Thanks Turc, I think that was your gut pick from yesterday anyway.  Gotta go with that sometimes when you aint got nothing else to go on.  LOL  BOL
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:45PM

let's play nice now...LOL, I've got nothing pal.  I'm ready to jump in head first with the rest of the crew here but the book isn't cooperating.  the damn number just dropped to 194.  my god, can this day get any worse?  BOL with any play Turc...I have no action at all. 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:47PM

Jlipp would agree with you 100%.  He's drilled that into my head on numerous occasions.  I'm about ready to hit tomorrow's card since today's just been a sh1tst0rm.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:51PM

Try this out for size...I was just trying to justify still jumping on board @ 194

team=Bobcats and op:site=home and opo:points < op:points and o:rest=0 and season=2008

CHA at home playing a team on a b2b and winning the first at home and no rest this season.  TOR has no rest and won yesterday in TOR

sick O/U 1-7-0 avg line 185 and under covers by 7 which gives us 178 for this game.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:13PM

let's bring this one home 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:09PM

that was a nice call on NJ/LAC last night

Tonight, Zeus has called this HOU/NOH to be a NOT under game also.  The numbers are there!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:10PM

Slice, when you lock, can you let us know..GL bro
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 04:53PM

This is also going to answer PnP's Q.  Even at 195, I'm iffy on this game...if you noticed last night, I didn't establish a buy-in number for this game.  There's just so many factors to consider other than just being 7 points off the number.  Please play this at your own risk if the number does hit 195.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 04:53PM

curious what you come up with KB
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 04:54PM

slice, you're adding fuel to my fire for the NOT under play on this game!!!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:12PM

Excellent write up sir.  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:13PM

you locked in anything yet?
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:15PM

Thank man.  Seems to be some love for the TOR/CHA U195 here.  I'm going to take your advice and stay away from the NJ/DEN game.  too much going on there...way too much.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:16PM

we're still sorting it out with less than 2 hrs before tip...lots of cappers liking the TOR/CHA matchup to go U.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:22PM

I think Slice's last writeup sold me...I have to wait until this hits 195 but I think I'm going to lock this one in.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 05:29PM

I'm iffy on the first and the third since there's been arguments on both sides but I can tell you most here love the second.  GL man...this isn't a bad outcome considering the crappy card we were handed.   and thank you.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:03PM

Timely info..thank you
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:04PM

Respect that bro...I wish you luck sir.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:04PM

showtime!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:05PM
 

I have no action on this
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:40PM

That's what everyone likes and I'm on it.  Let us know fatdan!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:41PM

yep, i think he is...the news of flu-like symptoms been making the round earlier today.  that certainly changes a lot of things
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:42PM

Good call on this from the start Slice.  Solid analysis on your part and I thank you.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:20PM

now let's start turning some profits for ya!!! BOL sir
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:39PM

This...I like...Thanks always grindstone.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:31PM

Never, it just doesn't make sense on totals.  If you get beat by the hook tonight...you're good for a few years...GL 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:33PM

you too homie!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:34PM

ouch...i'm sorry Z, I have nothing for ya...I'm the worst sides capper you'll ever meet LOL
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:35PM

I'm tailing also...but I like this play...GL JCW.  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:21PM

I'm in 1/2 U myself just in case the line bumps.  I have no problem going full 1U on this @194 but I can wait 30 minutes  BOL PnP
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:23PM

me, you and just about everyone else on this thread!  I love the value of the ticket we have.  BOL to you also 
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:24PM

Thank you, stop by anytime and give us your thoughts, we're all in this together!  
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:24PM
 two back at ya.  BOL
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 06:06PM
yeah...me too.  thanks to those I'm tailing tonight

[502] TOTAL u194-110 
(TORONTO vrs CHARLOTTE)
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:33PM

Yes sir, let's do this!
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:34PM

Sorry man, this was a tough call to make so I have no action on it.
axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:35PM


axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:35PM

Turc's POD on this is the big O
Daigia-Gamble says:
03/16/09 05:23PM
I think all good cappers in this threat is taking

San/Ok under 191.5

Tor/Bobcats Under 195

Houston/New Over 184

 

Ax, please corrercts me if I'm wrong.

Thanks for all your good work

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 04:56PM
I have to say, doing my own thing, 195 seems pretty high.  The cats are not a high scoring offense combined with their defensive pressure and being at home needing the win, I gotta think the craptors will be in the tank on this game and under looks pretty good.  I'm thinking 94-84 type game here.  With the accuscore trend being 5 pts and could reach 6 if the line hits 195, I'm trending to the under here.

 

I'm not touching the NO/Hou Under 182, too many factors in on this one and the numbers point to an over for me but it is close.

 

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 06:40PM
1full unit play 194, couldnt get 195 but I'm feeling this game in the 175-184 range anyways.

 

Let's win

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 01:50PM
BTW Ax, I have been tracking Accuscore vs. Overs and Unders, interesting note, when Accuscore is 5+ points difference from vegas line on Unders the current record is 5-4  (only been tracking about a month), before this though it was 5-1 until suffering 3 straight losses over the weekend. 

 

Looking at this, the only play that shows is Tor/Char U 194 as Accuscore has 189.  Considering Charlottes need to win this game, and at home, possible defensive pressure turned up a notch tonight.

 

Though I hate to bet on any craptors games.  Just my opinion and insights.

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 03:34PM

 

Only change at 3:34 pm EST is Denver adjusted to 11.6 and 206.4

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 04:00PM
BTW, No/Hous is tracking at 2.6 Over the total of 182, Overs of 2.1-2.9 are 7-3 in the system over the past month of my monitoring.
SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 05:08PM
Further validating the Tor/Cha Under play, last game they played each other was in Toronto on 11/26/08 they scored by quarter:

 

49,48,46,36 for 179

 

Despite Toronto shooting 50% from the field and with Bosh scoring 39!

 

That was still 15 points short of tonight's line which meant at least a 51 pt 4th quarter.  If this game is anywhere close in the 4th, knowing Charlotte MUST win this game, it will be defensive lockdown time.

 

That's it for me:

 

1.  Toronto doesnt shoot 50% on the road

2.  Bosh doesnt have 39 tonight

3.  Charlotte in a must win situation against a sub .500 team

 

Only 2 games this season:  179 and 168

 

My POD going on Tor/Char U194 or more if you can get it.  I'm holding for 195 at my book cause i see the majority of books at 194.5 and we know pub's love overs. 

vegasace99 says:
03/16/09 03:16PM

wow! is Ax callin the O on the DEN game???!

Mad_Skillz123 says:
03/16/09 02:48PM
lol Ax i fade those plays too....they suck!!!!

so imo, i will fade em again...i will NOT play under Denver...way too low...Denver can score 120 anytime, so that gives NJN 84?? wow...

I can see a score like 111-99....and @204.5 my lean would be over....so i will stay away from this game cause i am 80% under player
Crockie says:
03/16/09 04:25PM
Ax there are no good games today I think... But here are the first lines for tomorrow

Orlando@Cleveland 194
Sacramento@Atlanta 201.5
Boston@Chicago 195.5
Detroit@Dallas 188.5
Philadelphia@LAL 203
Minnesota@San Antonio 191.5

Good night
GOLDENGREEK111 says:
03/16/09 05:12PM
ax - what are the plays so far - if any -save me 9 pages  of reading
ZuCrow says:
03/16/09 04:14PM
imo. i think ToR/ChAr Under 194 has a lot of value.
BoyDiamonds says:
03/16/09 06:16PM
B.O.L. to EVERYONE!!! Hope this is the right one.
bobble1woody says:
03/16/09 06:14PM
been reading every comment, very interesting, I'm on the total as you guys, and thanks for yesterday, I made up some losses with your picks, I do appreciate it Axman
JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 06:31PM
GL guys I like the play. This was the only game I was watching but my number never got there. This taking a day off stuff makes time go by so much slower so I thought I might as well check in . I might just put a 1/5U play in and tail ya guys.
Zeus10 says:
03/16/09 06:28PM
wow, I was just putting a bet in on HOU/NO Under 182 and HOU + 3.5 and then the lines changed!! Now the total is at 181..even tho 64% of the public liked over 182.....and the spread went from 3.5 to now 5......I think the under is still a good play....

Also I cant seem to get away from liking Houston + 5.....any comments guys??
Zeus10 says:
03/16/09 06:36PM
man I am hearing Yao is out......I dont know if that is true but I think Im going to stay away from that game now.....GL
Zeus10 says:
03/16/09 06:03PM


wow love that stat!!

I gotta jump on board with the CHA/TOR Under
Zeus10 says:
03/16/09 02:44PM

 

Thanks Ax..

I am going to wait a couple of hours to see if the line moves and the %'s change at all...but right now that pick looks good!

Zeus10 says:
03/16/09 02:38PM

 

just wondering where you got the 90% public on DEN?? I got 54-46 DEN-NJ...with 90% on NJ ML

Zeus10 says:
03/16/09 02:54PM

 

I just reviewed that post and you are right, the numbers add up and I think we are on the most probable side Under 182....I will be locking this in shortly!

Zeus10 says:
03/16/09 02:34PM
I gotta go with NO/HOU Under 182......In 2008 (they have not played in 2009)  5 out of 6 games went under 182....thats right only 1 game and it was @ HOU went Over 182.....Also HOU has a 5 game Under streak and NO has a 2 game Under streak...usually I would like the streak to end but what makes this look good is that the public (so far) is taking the Over and the line still drops...I know the game is a few hours away and the line may move some more and more bets will be placed and the public may be going the other way, but for now Under looks good and I hope it stays that way...
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/16/09 06:16PM
Nice to see you on board, ax! Had a half unit at 195 already. Hoping to get the other half around the same number.

BOL!
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/16/09 04:45PM
That SAC-ATL game looks really promising tomorrow!

So if TOR-CHA goes up to 195, you gonna buy, ax?
Joe_Vienna says:
03/16/09 01:51PM


I would never post something other than an under in your thread ^^
Joe_Vienna says:
03/16/09 02:23PM
some more numbers for you!

Tor/Char 199 HANK
188 AX
189 ACCU
192 Joe

SA/OKC 181
184
187.8
187

Port/Mem 185
186
185.7
201

Hou/NO 190
177
184.6
182

NJ/Den 206
208
208.1
200
cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 03:00PM
the only reason that denver total is so low is because they expect a blowout......and more than half of the time they r right.......look at that suns/warriors total......they threw in a number that would make the public bite low knowning that it was going to a high scoring game......
cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 04:14PM
if the denver game stays close it will go over......if its a blowout it will go under.......i think
cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 04:10PM
here's a little insight i got this morning.....

 

vince carter with harris in the line-up dating back to nov has average 29.05 points a game on back to back nights on the road

 

in that span they are 11-3 against the spread with those team

on the road

 

that last stat don't reflect the totals it reflects the line coverage

 

i think without harris in the line-up he is going to shoot alot of shots tonight.........denvers perimeter d is otrocious (mike tyson accent)

 

 

 

cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 06:05PM
line went down to 194......charlotte game
cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 05:49PM

Toronto led 87-80 on Bosh’s dunk with 7:01 remaining, but Bosh missed consecutive jumpers after Okafor’s follow shot, and Augustin scored on a driving layup with 4:23 left to cut it to 87-84, forcing Toronto to call timeout.

Bosh missed again and Graham had an airball before Okafor’s baseline jumper cut it to 87-86. But Bosh responded with a jumper and Graham dunked over Okafor to put the Raptors up, 91-86.

“When you’re down 10, you’ve got to play perfect at the end and we just missed so many easy shots,” Brown said. “We had our opportunities and it didn’t happen.”

Charlotte, the NBA’s lowest-scoring team, has been held below 100 points in all but two of its 14 games.

it looks that they went into a scoring drought the last 7 minutes of that game and the total was 93-86...i don't see that happening today.....i think charlotte breaks 100 today..... the ? is how much does toronto will be able to muster up......like slice said i don't see bosh getting 39 again......

cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 05:17PM
slice if it goes up to 195 im biting......under on toronto/charlotte with u ........gl
cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 05:11PM
ax i would stay away from that game totally........

 

denver is unpredictable........the best value i see out there is.......

 

spurs -2 first half

 

okla starting five- westbrook, sefolosha, durant, green, kristic

spurs five- parker, duncan, mason, finley, bonner

 

i think the spurs can have the lead by half-time and durant has not played in a couple games im hoping he comes out sluggish......

 

anybody on the same page......

clkclass says:
03/16/09 06:27PM
Thanks Ax, BOL
clkclass says:
03/16/09 04:02PM
Hey Ax. you dont know me, just wanted to thank you for your post. Very helpfull. Your neighbor. clkclass Methuen
shubox88 says:
03/16/09 03:44PM
Ax your hard work does not go unnoticed, it's greatly appriciated.

 

Some additional info to kick around. The MGM/Mirage books just moved the #'s on the NJN/DEN game tonight. Game has also been circled through out Las Vegas.

 

Den -14.5 o/u 203.5, every dollar has been coming in on Den & under after game openners were Den -9.5 & 208.

jim844 says:
03/16/09 04:02PM
the lines have been so erratic today
i go to lunch to return to see lines moved 2 full points in the span of 30 mins
scares me from playing many things :|
jim844 says:
03/16/09 04:30PM
i jumped on the tor/cha u194.5 as well
i agree with you the value is there
hopefully this pans out in our favour
IlikeDawgs says:
03/16/09 06:45PM
espn just confirmed yao not playing 2nite and is ques wed
ricker says:
03/16/09 07:08PM
Any opinions on Okla/SAS Under 187.5? Thanks.
raindelay says:
03/16/09 02:54PM
if +5/-5 points  than line they are ok
raindelay says:
03/16/09 02:41PM
dunkelindex numbers
Toronto at

Charlotte 198
San Antonio

at Oklahoma City 182
Portland at

Memphis 184
Houston at

New Orleans 189
New Jersey

at Denver 207


GreedyReidy says:
03/16/09 05:29PM

Like others new to the forum, I am very impressed by your expertise and insight and I'm loving this forum, too. You seem to be a genuinely positive and welcoming person, which is refreshing considering some of the "hater" posts you see on covers. I'm also impressed with your discipline and hopefully some will rub off on me. Anyway, enough with the blatant, but sincere, ass-kissing.

Though not fully familiar with your methods, it's clear that your picks are more of a statistical bent. How much do emotional and situational factors weigh into to your picks? For instance, NJ is on the second of a back-to-back within a 5-game road trip with a previous back-to-back. NJ gave Denver its worst beat down in 12 years a month or so ago. Someone previously said Denver gets lazy and eases up, but with all the NJ negs, e.g., no Harris, fatigue, last game of the road trip, etc., why not expect a Denver rout?

P.S. What's the origin of your username?
cool_trix says:
03/17/09 04:37PM
BOL Ax.  Not a regular poster on your thread, but do enjoy reading your thoughts and insights.  Hope you can once again post on Covers without being haggled.  If at all possible, let me know your new handle as well so I can look for your thoughts and insights in the future. 
SecondAgain says:
03/17/09 07:00PM
are we at page 21 yet?
charlielo55 says:
03/17/09 04:10PM
Ax, please choose me.....you guys are fuckin' hilarious. It's not about handicapping, it's about money management. A monkey can pick games just as good as your precious Ax. Everyone gets hot and cold, it's about knowing when to put your foot to the metal, and when to back off. You guys are like a bunch of sheep being lead to the slaughter, except lucky for you, the Ax man disappeared....saving you a pile of money on is current cold streak.

 

Here's an under for you Wash St under 120. now you guys can all pile on me.......LOL.

charlielo55 says:
03/16/09 09:43PM
Quit whining you little faggot......what a duesche bag.
highside107 says:
03/17/09 01:51PM

"Out for good"? 
highside107 says:
03/17/09 03:18PM

Say for example if you cap a game at a total of 200 and the Vegas line is 204, he will NOT bet it (the under) because it's too tight of a line. So he employs a "3 possession rule" that says his number has to be 3 possessions (usually 7 points) less than the Vegas total.... so if he caps a game at 193 and the Vegas total is 200 or higher, he will bet it.
success1 says:
03/17/09 06:56PM
Ax, pls add me also to your friends list.....
success1 says:
03/16/09 10:19PM
hanging with ya, joe....let's  hit this under 101 (for me)
success1 says:
03/16/09 09:41PM
94.5 here
success1 says:
03/16/09 09:20PM
SAS unda....good hit, joe......
playaplaya says:
03/16/09 08:57PM
wow we are done..get em tomorrow..ax.
playaplaya says:
03/16/09 09:03PM
the refs..were calling fouls on every little touch.
playaplaya says:
03/16/09 08:01PM
the refs are calling fouls like nothing..just a lil touch it's a foul on the bobcats..toronto been at the line too much!!
tuan357 says:
03/16/09 08:25PM
Wazzzzzzzzup Joe.... Glad to see you around....EC is back....... just letting you know.
tuan357 says:
03/17/09 05:36PM
heard of you from joe schmoe... would like to join your committee.

thanks.
frogster says:
03/17/09 02:19PM
Hi Ax, please PM me as well.

Thank You.

ragarm2 says:
03/17/09 05:25PM
Ax havent been here for long but really admire what I have seen so

far. Please add me to your list. Thank you sir...........

HoldenRg says:
03/17/09 03:37PM
ax can you include  PM for  me? PEACE!
HoldenRg says:
03/17/09 03:43PM
A toast to your classy style my friend hope to hear from you PEACE!
yoyo says:
03/17/09 03:16PM
Ax, it's sad not to see u here again. please add me to ur friend list. thank you and good luck to whatever you're doing. 
AJK says:
03/16/09 08:20PM
UNDER SHOULD BE OK, BOTH TEAMS NEED TO SCORE, AND TORONTO WON'T KEEP UP THEIR END, THEY WILL GET BLOWN OUT, AND THE CATS DON'T HAVE THAT KIND OF SCORING TO SUSTAIN THEIR PACE.

AX...LOOKS LIKE YOUR PORTLAND UNDER LEAN WAS GOOD, TOO BAD YOU DIDNT GET THE NUMBER YOU WANTED
AJK says:
03/16/09 09:29PM
THIS GAME MAKES ME SICK, 36 FREETHROWS FOR A TEAM GETTING BLOWN OUT VS 19 FOR THE HOME TEAM??? THE FIX WAS ON IN THIS GAME.

PKKingster15 says:
03/17/09 02:22PM
ax- i love your threads every day, although i don't tail you blindly.  I'd love to get your new id, i requested you as a friend, but if you're being bombarded, don't sweat it.  BOL in the future bro
PKKingster15 says:
03/17/09 03:22PM


   class act brother
MPSJ says:
03/17/09 03:26PM
hey ax...

 

just discovered u this weekend as a referral fron joe sho...appreciate u...how do i stay in touch

 

thx

Northwest1395 says:
03/17/09 03:57PM
Ax,

I would just ignore it but I can understand your decision. Have really learned some things from your posts.  Please also add me to your friends list!  Thank you.

chump says:
03/17/09 03:52PM
chump says:
03/17/09 03:39PM
AX ... you caught a break when WillBet got boxed ... I was only 6 maybe 7 units behind you and ready to make a run !!!

 

And another thing ... recently you said to me "Chump, I'll give you a winner if you come and clean the winter poop out of my backyard left by my five dog"  ... so don't say you never asked for anything !!!

 

Let's get started on the NCAA tourney ... lot of work to do ... I'll pull an all-nighter  with you along with the others here that respect  you as a capper, a person and a friend !!!

 

In your absence ... the Cavs / Orl under 193 looks like the play tonight !!!!!!!!!!  

chump says:
03/16/09 10:03PM

You have a terrible F^^^ing attitude ... you should be appreciative of yesterdays wins and understand that one does not win everyday ... a lot of work is put into this thread most everyday and your participation isn't necessary ...

Learn how to handicap and decide on your own plays !!!!!!

chump says:
03/16/09 10:24PM

Hmmm jimdapimp is joe shmoe ... how would one know !!!

Hope your well my friend !!!

chump says:
03/16/09 10:27PM

You're alright Brunetto ... even though you're a Celtics fan !!!

chump says:
03/16/09 10:30PM

WOW ... I was way off on this total of 154 !!!!!!!!!!

chump says:
03/16/09 10:40PM
Hmmmmmmm ... big problem on thw WillBet thread !!!
drum67 says:
03/16/09 10:00PM
Soooooooooooooo close U194.5 Charlotte(61 point third f'd us)
Granpa says:
03/16/09 10:06PM
Ok Cricket, what are you thinking for NJ 2h? Got Nuggets -6.5 o/u 101
Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:48PM

I'd like to see what you come up with on 1h plays even if I don't play them. My first thought is first round may be good for FG u, with 1h staying low since these teams don't really know each other then picking it up the 2h. Just a thought, but we'll see.

Thanks

Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:50PM
Jeez, Mem/Port looks ugly.
Granpa says:
03/16/09 10:21PM

really like the O, but not sure with NJ on 3rd in 4 nights. Think I'm laying off to hoping Mem can cover my Tor 2h loss.

Granpa says:
03/16/09 10:08PM

 

Granpa says:
03/17/09 02:35PM
Love to keep following you Ax (Chump too), if you don't mind.

 

Thanks, Granpa

Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:31PM

Didn't have a lot of time at work today, but managed to pull some numbers together. Anxious to see how close I am even if it is my first crack at it.

Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:41PM

Will do. Didn't take into account injuries, days rest or anything like that. Hope to pull that in as I get it together.

Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:37PM
Joe, you plan to have a thread tomorrow for the NIT games?
Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:28PM

 

Nice shooting foul at the end to put it over!!

 

Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:24PM

Missed this but going to tail Mem

Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:16PM

Funny Joe, I don't recall anyone holding a gun to MSU's head making him bet any of these games. Strange how all that works, isn't it?

Granpa says:
03/16/09 09:19PM
We're not dead yet Joe. Where's that rally chicken.
Granpa says:
03/16/09 08:29PM

Hey Joe, going with you on the under but actually had this capped at 200. GL

Granpa says:
03/16/09 08:51PM
Looks like I may have been right about that 200 mark.
Tailer187 says:
03/16/09 07:58PM
relax guys. it's too early. look for some defense after this timeout.
Tailer187 says:
03/16/09 08:14PM
should we hedge? it's at 97.5 now. If we bet over then we just don't need the total not to be at 195, 196 and 197. What you guys think?
matt4000 says:
03/17/09 08:21PM
Hey Ax,

I've been at work for the last few days and am not totally sure what fully happened to make you leave.

I just wanted to say thanks for all the time you put into capping and for posting your plays for free. It was much appreciated!

I have only been on this site for over a year and have learned so much from experienced cappers including yourself.

I do not post much so that I do not clog up someone's threads, but I do read what is said in order to learn from them and to gain insight into a play in order to make a wager on a game.

I say this to say, that I always looked for your plays and then capped that game myself to see if I should play it or not. And by doing this I have made a lot of money...so thanks!

I hope that I can find your posts in the future one day? Good luck in what you do!

Matt

popehike says:
03/17/09 03:43PM

Ax,

Never post, but felt the need to say I found you recently and have enjoyed your class, insight and approach to capping. Sorry to see you may be going underground. Best of luck!

hummeroid says:
03/17/09 02:45PM
Let me guess, Ax is going private and keep the picks to his own group. 

Soon enough, he'll be a tout and start selling plays to the group. 

That's a smart way of getting a contact list.  I've have seen this shit at

this forum and other forums before where one person does well for few

seasons and start having their own group and soon enough, that person

become a tout ans sell their picks to make money instead of giving it away for free.  If this is not the reason for not posting then why let

one poster get to you where you wont be posting anymore.

hummeroid says:
03/17/09 03:06PM
Hates tout doesn't mean you can't become one when there's money to make.  I know he doesn't like touts but if you are good at what you're doing and can make money, why would you not do it.  I wouldn't blame Ax for going tout.  I'll be the first one to pay for his service cuz he's a lot better than some of the touts that I'm getting plays from.  JMHO
JP4LIFE says:
03/17/09 04:48PM
Hey Ax just wanted to say thanks for all u tought us and sharing your knowledge with us. I added u as a friend i hope u will accept me. I think u are the best capper here and would like to be in ur daily discussions. Thank u again
makaveli23 says:
03/16/09 09:25PM


Man you are a fucking ass to everyone MSU?!? I thought you just hated me, fuck shoulda known your just a sorry ass chump who tails and bashes cappers after they take the time to post their plays.  Karma will come back and slap you upside the head.
Gambleholic says:
03/16/09 11:09PM
Well, we can't win them all.  Good try everyone.  


Gambleholic says:
03/17/09 01:56PM


Gambleholic says:
03/17/09 02:13PM
Ax, I am a regular reader, but not necessarily contributor.  Please PM if its cool.  If not, goodluck brother!
timemaster says:
03/18/09 02:56AM
to mods, you should have a device that check ip addresses, it's becoming a farce. guys posting fake amounts, multiple names for single users, plagiarism. if this site cannot offer better protection against psychotic posters then , this site is gonna lose credibility!!!

 

concerned user

EATANDRUN says:
03/17/09 04:42PM
Flippa, well said
EATANDRUN says:
03/17/09 05:25PM
agree 100% with Flippa,

 

don't let those low life hater think they got in your head and ran you off the forum.

 

Most of us here have very high respects and appreciate your efforts and help with your knowledge of capping.

 

 

 

EATANDRUN says:
03/17/09 03:10PM

Ax, please pm me and add me to your friend list...thanks.

EATANDRUN says:
03/17/09 02:17PM
Ax, can you please add me on your friend's list.

 

thanks bro.

 

 

NYCOWBOY says:
03/17/09 02:05PM
hey ax, I was new to your thread from Sun. Nite, figures - find something good and it gets ruined.... I'd really appreciate it if you could put me in on that list also and if not, GL to you anyway. Don't let these people get you down....
jcilla says:
03/17/09 03:41PM
AX can you PM me as well?
AChigurh says:
03/17/09 02:18PM

3 possession rule??

pardon my ignornace but can u explain this please

GreenMachine22 says:
03/17/09 04:26PM
I have respect for what you've done at covers, but this is pathetic. The world is full of hate, get over it...or get run over by it.




robbie0570 says:
03/18/09 10:29AM
50,000 views and 500+ posts for 2 bets

 

if this guy is good and he's winning, thats great, I hope everyone makes a fortune...but does there really need to be 20 fuking pages of 100 post idiots going back and forth discussing their  opinions and thank yous and ball kissing bullshit??...out of curiosity I spent a half a fucking hour going thru each dumb page before I found the guys fucking pick.

 

by the time you end the mystery and find the fucking play the game already started.

 

just post the fucking pick and move on for christs sake...

GWYNN8 says:
03/17/09 03:42PM

[Quote: Originally Posted by highside107]


Say for example if you cap a game at a total of 200 and the Vegas line is 204, he will NOT bet it (the under) because it's too tight of a line. So he employs a "3 possession rule" that says his number has to be 3 possessions (usually 7 points) less than the Vegas total.... so if he caps a game at 193 and the Vegas total is 200 or higher, he will bet it.

Atmanne says:
03/17/09 02:21PM
I haven't been putting any money down, but I've been following your threads trying to soak up knowledge for the last 3-4 weeks. 

Can't say I'm a contributor to the discussions, but I'd appreciate your new ID.  If not, it's all good.
thefever says:
03/17/09 04:59PM
Ax - would really appreciate the add...I truely enjoy reading and I am really trying to progress my skills as a capper...Thanks
RoosterKing says:
03/17/09 02:17PM
Please PM me as well Ax. Been following you threads and love your insight! Please don't disappear on us!
RoosterKing says:
03/17/09 01:58PM
What happened with Ax? Why is he leaving us???
THE_SAINT says:
03/17/09 03:24PM

Ax, please pm me and add me to your friend list,

 always looking for your insight  ...thanks.

ValueforRent says:
03/17/09 07:03PM

Hey what does GMBLRNME say in the morning when me wakes up?

He can't say anything because Axpiota59's cock and balls are firmly entrenched in his mouth.

How unfortunate.

Chooch77 says:
03/17/09 05:04PM
Ax,  What happened pal?  Just added you as a friend.  Hopefully we'll chat soon!
cubboy says:
03/17/09 03:45PM
 joe what happened with ax
cubboy says:
03/16/09 10:08PM
 18-18 FOR THE 3RD YOU GOTTA BE KIDDING ME
cubboy says:
03/16/09 09:31PM
 JOE MY LINE IS O 94 2H MEM IS IT GOOD
Fathomable says:
03/17/09 04:00PM
u will be missed bro. good luck in the future.     
aznracer says:
03/17/09 03:58PM
Hey Ax, I've been following your picks for awhile and I apppreciated all the hard work you put in to give us your POD.  And I'm also looking forward to your MLB opinion too as the season about to come.  If it possible, I would love to have you add me to your buddy's list.  If not I fully understand, no hard feeling.  Your're a class act man.  BOL to you and your family
akhbaseball0319 says:
03/17/09 04:54PM
been following you for a while AX...hook me up with ya new name man

 

thanks

crazycarlitos says:
03/17/09 04:35PM


Man, sorry to see u go, bro !

Best of Luck !
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 08:57PM
FCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 07:51PM
ALL THOSE DEFENSIVE GUYS ARE ON THE BENCH DAMN!!
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 07:56PM
WE NEED A 30 POINT QUARTER!! 
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 07:56PM
WE NEED A 30 POINT TOTAL QUARTER!! 
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 07:58PM
they are averaging 4 points a minute now.


nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 08:14PM




I DO HOPE SO COZ' TORONTO NO D-FENS= +50% FOR CHARLOTTE

WE NEED A DIVINE INTERVENTION!
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 08:16PM
IF YOU ASKED ME I'D GO FOR THE UNDER.
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 07:50PM
COME ON!!! BRICKFEST IS WHAT WE NEED IN CHARLOTTE!!
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 08:48PM
3'S DROPPING EVERYWHERE!! FCK!
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 08:05PM
WE NEED A MIRACLE HERE!! 1ST HALF GOING 100+
nostradamus168 says:
03/16/09 08:12PM
$2000



Mizzou_08 says:
03/17/09 02:14PM
Ignore the haters Ax, they are just a bunch of school kids who bet $5 8 team parlays.  You are kicking ass, you can't win every single play but you sure as heck win alot more than you lose.  I sent you a friends request, please PM me and hopefully we can talk some sports.  I look forward to talking some MLB totals with you in April
KillerKardoogan says:
03/17/09 01:28AM
Pete Rose erased from record books !
KillerKardoogan says:
03/17/09 01:31AM
looks like Will Bet (Pete Rose) is going to need some help on Tuesday
axpiota59 says:
03/17/09 01:46PM

To

the regulars...I will PM you all my new handle (id)...please keep this private.

 The tourney starts in 2 days.  The books are a little off keeping up

with some these games.  Great value all over the board.  I know, I know I said I don’t cap CBB but you

saw what happened when I leaked some info on the NHL.  My inbox was bombarded.  Now you know why.

To

the haters!  I love you man and I'm sorry your life is so miserable.

Ax out for good!  

 

axpiota59 says:
03/16/09 07:39PM

TOR/CHA U...missed it but that may not be a bad thing...bad card tonight.



BOLTA...I'm be back late night.  Enjoy the games
axpiota59 says:
03/17/09 03:19PM
Just to clarify...i started posting picks so people would not have to buy picks from these low lives that call themselves experts.  Capping games is my only job.  You can catch me here in the morning, afternoon, evening and latenight.  I do not sell picks because I do just fine playing them.  the worst insult is to say i am going tout.  i am not leaving covers, just going low key so i can continue to share ideas with the many cappers here with so much to offer.  these cappers that i call my friends know i have never asked for anything in return.  i have been offered to go tout several times.  I have been offered gifts.  let someone here speak up and say i've ever accepted anything.  I've never accepted any money or gifts for any of my picks. 67% this year and well over +30 units.  I do not need anyone's hard earned cash.  I do just fine.  my only goal then, now and in the future is to help others turn a little profit on their hobby.  to many, this is a hobby.  to me, it is my job.


8722raven says:
03/17/09 03:29PM
8722raven   axpiota59
zebones says:
03/17/09 03:11PM
Ax plz add me to friends thx,if not good luck
SlicerDicer says:
03/17/09 04:26PM

Words of wisdom from the land that brought you the genius of George W. Bush    /sarcasm

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 08:19PM
Im holding out for the under, it's still 94 points, do we see the Raptors getting another 17 from the FT line?  Charlotte gonna shoot 50%+, are they gonna use up some clock and work the shot clock possession?

 

 

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 08:12PM
Not bad considering Char shooting 51%, the killer has been the Raptors getting a free 17pts from the Free Throw line, these refs need to stop the tickytack foul shit, though Toronto started looking tired in the 2nd Half, hopefully we see Charlotte slow it down in 2nd Half and get defensive and less fouls.

 

BTW if you want live broadcast of the game:

http://atdhe.net/live-tv-5126.html

 

Currently showing Hornets/Rockets during halftime but it should go back to bobcats game later.

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 08:25PM
http://atdhe.net/live-tv-5126.html

 

2nd Half getting ready to come on, let's go DEFENSE!!

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 08:50PM
Yeah this game is toast, my bad fella's, I contributed to the Under theory on this one, but it's early in the week, and I'm sure this thread will get it back over the week long period.

 

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 08:57PM

Raptors got 8 FT's made in 3Q and Charlotte improved to 53.7% shooting, HAHA.  BTW these refs need to just let them play it out and quit calling tickytack shit

 

SlicerDicer says:
03/16/09 09:00PM

 

Happens, can't win them all otherwise you'd never have a place to go visit ala Las Vegas.

vegasace99 says:
03/17/09 02:08AM

Damn Ax the threads gettin ghetto. i was hopin i would never see this. youre getting too damn popular. people talking shit and taking over YOUR thread w BS. Please dont stray from your roots...pick you own plays n dont feel the need to force a play n change your style. Thanks for all you do. I was going to send this as a PM but thought others needed to see this as well. Thanks Brotha!

peterose24 says:
03/17/09 02:33PM
Hey Ax..I have been silently following the discussion that takes place in this thread and it has done wonders for my handicapping..I would love to start contributing as well..can you please add me to your list? i have sent you a friend request
TURN2BURN says:
03/17/09 05:02PM
Ax, i dont post often but when i do, im always thanking your for the picks win/lose i very much appreciate the time and effort you give to help guys like me make up my mind with picks, and most of the time bank in on them too, BOL in the future my friend.  If you can please add me as friend i would love to continue analyzing your thoughts and matching them with my own... Thanks buddy
BoyDiamonds says:
03/16/09 07:45PM
1st quarter is looking any higher and i'm !!  LETS MISS SOME BUCKETS!!!!
JBrilman says:
03/17/09 11:59AM
WELL SAID VEGASACE
bostonsbetter says:
03/17/09 03:20PM
If they hate than let em hate and watch the money pile up...

 

I havent read through this entire post yet because i dont have a spare day right now but seriously... Ax is unreal at what he does. One of the best cappers on covers by far. When him and Turc team up... LOAD UP!!!

 

All you dumbasses ruined a good thing! You want to hate thats fine but do it silently by not even clicking on the god damn post.

 

You ruined it for people like me that have been watching Ax's NBA plays all year. I have never taken part in any convo simply because the man is unreal... anything that I have to add most likely he already knows...

 

Screw all the haters! They should all be banned for being assholes!!!

FlippaCoin says:
03/17/09 03:57PM




"Class Act"
I've seen this several times in Ax's thread. 
Why? because.....

1) He's a humble man.  Always shines the light on others when winning.  It goes to show that he's got plenty of love and respect from his immediate family and friends, and sharing the love is automatic to him.

2) Takes time to respond to every one of the post in his thread.
Heck, would you?  It's quite time consuming. He volunteered his time to respond so that people don't feel ignored or left out. (just my opinion)

3) considerate of others.  ie... people who might still be wagering goats. Being mindful not to offend anyone.  Always trying to keep the peace in his thread.

4) A great US Marine.

5)  hates touts and bookies, need I say more?

 

Put yourself in his shoes.  Why would you still wanna post and share

picks with jerk-offs who discredit and trash your efforts.  Why let

them still benefit from your work???   An answer would be much

appreciated, here.

FlippaCoin says:
03/17/09 04:27PM



one lost yesterday is a cold streak? 

After a closer inspection, I believe the chic in your avatar has bigger ball-sacs than you do. 

We would like to "pile" some steamy, smelly, brown stuff on you, though.

FlippaCoin says:
03/17/09 04:34PM



*one loss.
It's time for a beer.  my spellcheck is broken.


FlippaCoin says:
03/17/09 04:43PM



Again......
Why would you still wanna post and share

picks for jerk-offs who discredit and trash your efforts.  Why let

them still benefit in the end???

FlippaCoin says:
03/17/09 04:54PM


Thanks
could you add me to friend list, eatandrun?



***get over it...or get run over by it***

The great thing is we all have choices.  We choose not to "get over it....or get run over by it" because those are NOT the ONLY two options available.

A solution has already been reached, so you need not worry about him.


FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 09:48PM


Karma bitch slap MSU?  

MoronStraightUp,
     Next time, when you find yourself at the window with a gun to ur head.....just pull the trigger, don't take the bet. 

Hey Ax, we coulda, woulda, shoulda won that.  39 foul shots WTH (what the heck)?   When the fellow cappers say go for it, we say.....why the hell not!!

We'll get'em next time.  
FlippaCoin says:
03/17/09 02:28PM
OH, great....

Good job MSU!!!




Gambleholic,
PM me, please.
FlippaCoin says:
03/16/09 10:46PM


WBA is in the BOX this morning.
something about MLB forum.
bobble1woody says:
03/17/09 01:54PM
CAN YOU PUT ME ON THAT LIST PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JCWhy83 says:
03/17/09 01:57PM
Ax, I sent a friend request. I want to discuss tonight's NBA games.
JCWhy83 says:
03/16/09 11:13PM
Bring on Tuesday's Thread  
JCWhy83 says:
03/17/09 01:04AM

I got at least 4 games to discuss 
JCWhy83 says:
03/17/09 03:35PM



The things I miss when I take a day off.  I have 4 games I want to get feedback on today so hit me up if you get a chance.
goalie31 says:
03/17/09 02:19PM
AX,I've been tailing you for a couple of weeks and only recall one loser.I appreciate all the hard work you and the rest of the guy's on this thread do to help everyone  win money.I'm not a very good capper myself but have been reading and learnig from this thread.No one is forcing me to tail any cappers on this site and unlike some people I realize you're not go to hit 100 percent of your plays.I hope you will add me as a friend and pm me your new ID.Thanks
gltom says:
03/17/09 05:21PM
thanks for the picks Ax. Hope too here from u soon.

 

KorrupteD says:
03/16/09 10:35PM
wow guys i had NO/Rockets OVER 180.5...and the damn hornets only score only 37 in the 2H and i lose by 1.5 points....final score 95 - 84 dammit thats what i get for going against my UNDER ONLY RULE lol...it was a small play for some action...LETS GET THOSE NUMBERS GOING FOR 2morrow boys :)
MisterMoss says:
03/17/09 03:56PM
I think I've only posted a couple of times in these threads, but I just wanted to Thank you Ax. I think many of us find your insight helpful. If it's not a hassle, I would appreciate being included in your future capping prognostications. Every day has been a college course, so I hope one day, I can understand 10% of what you can.

-MM
DuckyBoy says:
03/17/09 05:14PM
Hey AX, I was turned onto your thread from joe_shmoe when he posted in EC's. Same problem from the same people over there.
A few assholes ruin it for everyone. GL to you bro. Heard you were the best, I guess I'll never find out.
proguy747 says:
03/17/09 05:42PM
Hey ax i sent you a friends request.  Still waiting  for that pm for those filets.  
proguy747 says:
03/16/09 08:37PM
stop posting your worries this thread is not for that.
Fairways-Greens says:
03/17/09 02:15PM
AX                       Please  PM   Your New Handle    Has Been a

 

 

 

JOY to follow you   !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

KingKobe says:
03/17/09 02:42PM

Ax, can you please add me on your friend's list.

golfing123 says:
03/17/09 04:27PM
AX Im sort of new here, ive been reading your post recently and respect your opinions. Dont neccessarily always follow but will not go against. I would enjoy being on your list as your picks and opinions r valuable info. GL to u in your future wagers u really r a class act
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/17/09 04:43PM


I honestly hate people who talk shit like they know what they're talking about but have no idea the kind of garbage that is coming out of their mouth.

Please, back up your words by showing us some monkeys that can win over 66% of the time after 110 games.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/17/09 02:59PM


Don't question his character like that. If you actually knew the guy, you would how much he hates touts.

Ax, you already know that I'd like to get that PM from you, but this is just a friendly reminder.
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/16/09 08:23PM
I am hoping that my Craptors just give up like they always do...
Pick-N-Pop says:
03/17/09 02:21PM
I wrote this in your "Tuesday" thread:

cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 10:13PM
i don't know pa........im sitting out......i would go  denver-6  if anything but small wager........
cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 10:45PM
i see chauncy only has 6 points.........

 

and they r still up 11.......

 

they should cover........would, should and could right.....

cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 10:24PM
yep........patience pa we have 8 on tues and 11 on wed......we'll get back on track tomorrow
cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 09:52PM
msu-   moron straight-up  

 

msu-  my shitty underwears  

cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 09:47PM
msu tomorrow u have alot of action.......college basketball........

 

its a sure bet then that we wont see u in this thread........

cricket2009 says:
03/16/09 09:39PM
lets wait for that denver/nets second half see what the number come out.....

 

took under   charlotte  as well.........

took  san antonio -2  1h

 

1-1 lets get this nets/denver  2nd half guys to break even......if the number is right.........this card was hard to pick.........if anything tomorrow is another day......we have all kinds of payback coming with 8 games tomorrow and 11 on wed......lets not force anything

thanks for the write-ups good work......

cricket2009 says:
03/17/09 02:39PM
ax add me to ur list so i can receive that much needed info......
cricket2009 says:
03/17/09 03:42PM
why do u even explain urself bro........im pretty new here and i have not seen anybody been so helpful in helping other guys make up their minds on who to put their money on.......ur punishing alot of people for the actions of a few assholes....but u r a grown man and u know whats best for u......good luck to u and ur circle.......
clkclass says:
03/17/09 02:43PM
AX dont leave a brother hanging, I know you can find it in your heart to add me 2 your list. THANKS!!
clkclass says:
03/17/09 02:34PM
Wow, ive been reading your post for about a week now and they been very helpfull To bad we have to pay for the haters out there!!   Best wishes 4 you AX keep killing those books!!!!!!! Your Hommie, clkclass.
clkclass says:
03/17/09 02:17PM
NO PLEASEEEEE, DONT LEAVE ME IAM NOT A HATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!   MSU09 you asshole look what you did i hope your FUCKING happy.  Hpe your Fucking wife leaves you 4  a BIG BLACK DICK!!!!!!!!!!!!  LIKE MINE,    ASSSSSS HOLEEEEEEEEE PS. SORRY GUYS LITTLE UPSET. BOL AX.
clkclass says:
03/17/09 02:07PM
SSP_thang says:
03/17/09 02:50PM
Ax, please pm me and add me to your friend list...thanks.
winoNV says:
03/17/09 02:36PM

Ax! I've been following you since my recent sign up on Covers and love your plays! Can you put me on the list too? Thanks buddy!

winoNV says:
03/17/09 02:22PM
GMan321 says:
03/17/09 02:32PM
Ax, i enjoy reading your thoughts and everyone's opinions as well. i am still learning and please pm with your new id. thx a bunch!
Philip_Rivers says:
03/17/09 02:19PM
Hey Ax, I already sent you a PM and thanks for adding me as your friend.  Please PM your new ID as well.  Thanks for all your help.

 

BOL as always.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:58PM

Yeah, I shouldn't have ignored that deceleration in the 2Q.  21 pts 1st 4 mins, 18 next 4 mins, and 15 in final 4 mins.  Pretty dumb play on my part...

This is going to sound weird, but when I think an under will cover, I like the over.  When I like the fav, I like the under.  I liked what Memphis was doing in that 2nd Q and it influenced my play...

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 10:07PM

word. 

chump, this is "jimdapimp"... how ya been buddy?

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 10:00PM

Oops, should have read when I think a *dog* is going to cover, I like the over...

 

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 10:08PM
under 101.5 .5 unit for me. 
joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:42PM

Yeah, I'll have a thread going.  I told myself that I won't force the 1H plays too much.  I'm really going to look around for the 2H plays that fit my system.  In all honesty, I'm a little nervous b/c since it's a tourney, there isn't a lot of data about head to head play.  So I'll be missing a good chunk of the data I normally use... 

I may just use the morning to see if my system is working, then post plays if I feel more comfy.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:47PM
Don't like where this 4th quarter in the NOR game might go...

 

GL everyone.  I'm guaranteeing a win by Axpiota tomorrow.  Haha. 

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:26PM
WHY?  WHY Sean May and Cartier Martin?

 

 

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:27PM

You were spot on with your Cha play.  Missed the push by one b/c the bench was out there.  Oh well, next time.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:35PM

Damn, that's much better than the line I got!!!

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:34PM

Smart... Let me know how it goes.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:12PM

Hey I think I missed it... but by any chance did you bet the Suns/Warriors game last night?  And if you did, did you win?  B/C I can't tell...

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:01PM
Alright, I'm going to get the rally chicken in here.  The rally monkey isn't doing it.
joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:16PM
1H Under SAS

 

Adding:

Under 92.5  SAS 2H.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:24PM
why the hell not... i'm just going to be a degen and play under houston 90 2H for .5 unit.
joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 09:22PM
Adding:

 

NOR -3 2H

Mem +1.5 2H

Over 97 Mem 2H

 

All just 0.75 units.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 08:41PM

If you're going to follow Ax, you're in good hands.  Don't sweat the day-to-day.  Use proper bankroll/money management and don't  every 2-3 minutes.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 08:30PM

I saw that.  It's too bad that his threads have taken the turn they have.  That's why I love Ax's threads.  Just a totally different vibe.  The anaylsis behind everything keeps the haters away.  Haters don't like to read.  Hahaha.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 08:31PM

I like the 2H be right around 90.  That's my guess.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 08:51PM

Still an etire quarter left.  You never know...

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 08:02PM
Taking under 94 1H in SAS game.

 

GLTA.

joe_shmoe says:
03/16/09 08:17PM
I'm adding:

 

Under 97 Char 2H. 

 

I like the way that 1H finished. 

joe_shmoe says:
03/17/09 03:24PM

Couldn't have said it better myself... other than maybe a F* You MSU!

joe_shmoe says:
03/17/09 03:44PM

I remember the dog poop post... and I remember thinking to myself I wish I lived close to Boston.  Haha.

Damn Chump, why you stealing my play?  I swear, my book always leaves me a hook short.  192.5 when I got it early this morning.

joe_shmoe says:
03/17/09 03:46PM

Chump, why did WBA get boxed?  I haven't been in his thread for a while.  I just heard that he was boxed.

joe_shmoe says:
03/17/09 03:55PM

Trust me, I would do the same, but I my book doesn't release lines until about 7.30 am pacific.

And for NCAAB, they don't release totals until 2 hours before the game.  What a load of crap...

Which leads to the question why I stick with them... -105 juice on all NBA and NCAAB.  Also, sick payin bonuses if I ever have to payin.

uwmattyk13 says:
03/16/09 08:54PM
Any last minute feelings about the New Jersey game fellas???
ROLANDOROQUE says:
03/18/09 01:50AM
hi ax,
i just joined the forum a about a week ago. your posts have really been very helpful to a rookie like me. your plays and insights really helped me understand and appreciate the art of capping. hope to hear from you soon. hope you can add me up as a friend. thanks and more power
GOL4 says:
03/17/09 06:30PM
hayorken says:
03/17/09 06:09PM
ax sad to see u go Best of luck to u
ricker says:
03/16/09 07:38PM
No problem, thx Ax and keep the great work 
Ools says:
03/16/09 07:40PM
tor/char - looking close on 1st half # -- both teams shot 50%, but no 3's made yet scares me. Tor a turnovers galore
JSwinz213 says:
03/17/09 02:04PM
AX,

 

I have been following you for about 2 weeks and have found you to be very helpful. I really appeciate all your insight and the picks you post. Please PM me your new ID just so I can read your advice and keep reading the valuable info you post here.

 

I know this is my first post, but it is because I stay away from all the BS that clutters these forums.

 

Thanks,

JSwinz

eagle123 says:
03/17/09 02:15PM
AX, would u pls pm me pls?
GreedyReidy says:
03/17/09 02:24PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by axpiota59]

To

the regulars...I will PM you all my new handle (id)...please keep this private.

 The tourney starts in 2 days.  The books are a little off keeping up

with some these games.  Great value all over the board.  I know, I know I said I don’t cap CBB but you

saw what happened when I leaked some info on the NHL.  My inbox was bombarded.  Now you know why.

To

the haters!  I love you man and I'm sorry your life is so miserable.

Ax out for good!  

Ax,

Gee, I hardly knew ya! I sent my first message (ever) to you yesterday and am now sorry to hear you're gone. For what it's worth, I called the Denver rout over NJ yesterday, so hopefully I can add value to your group. Please add me to your list if you're open to it. Thanks. Good luck!

GMBLRNME says:
03/17/09 05:36PM
GMBLRNME says:
03/17/09 05:38PM
AX...This is the first time in 10 years I've ever made money doing this.  AND I really need it now.  I'm making money because of you.  PLEASE ad me to whatever it is so I can get your advice.

sreno24 says:
03/17/09 04:41PM
sreno24 says:
03/17/09 05:33PM
Hey AX... I very rarely post but since I've been following your picks for a month or so I'm a completely different capper. Thank you... I greatly appreciate it!! I bet b/c sports are my LIFE but I was throwing money away for years. I would love the opportunity to continue to follow your expertise. Trying to find you is the only reason I got a user name today. But like I said I appreciate the past month and I'd love to continue my past month... Thanks and BOL
xef says:
03/17/09 05:34PM
 boss ax pa add pls, im a novice capper but i've learned a lot from your thread thru lurking as im too shy to post my picks. thanks po
stnmtn01 says:
03/17/09 06:21PM
Hey Ax

I've been following you for weeks now and love all the insights you and the rest of the cappers provide. I'm a newbie to this forum and hope you add me as your friend and pm me your new handle.

Forget all those jealous haters!

 

gamecocks207 says:
03/17/09 06:25PM
I finally opened account on covers.com just because of you.  I need the picks and love reading the discussions. 
gamecocks207 says:
03/17/09 06:48PM
I respect your thoughts and comments and capping skills.  Till today never bothered opening an account, please add me as a friend.  
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