axpiota59's Blog
Posted Thursday, February 05, 2009 06:15 AM
Here's what I'm looking at today
[702] TOTAL u214½-110
(INDIANA vrs PHILADELPHIA)
[703] TOTAL o205-110
(LA LAKERS vrs BOSTON)
[704] BOSTON -6-110
Posted Tuesday, February 03, 2009 11:13 PM
It's very early and not all the numbers are out but let's start with this.
[521] PHOENIX
-2½-110
[522] TOTAL u229-110
(PHOENIX vrs GOLDEN STATE)
Why would I bet on a team that 1-7-1 ats as road fav on 1
day rest?
GS is 6-3 ats as home dog with total over 210
The last time these 2 met in 11/26/07 in GS (and dog), GS
was a 4.5 dog and the total was 229. GS
won su and the total went over.
These two teams like a shootout. There hasn't been a number under 200 in GS vs.
PHO (fav) since 2003.
They did have an OT game in 2005 @ GS that still went under
PHO O/U is 11-3-1 when they have a 3 game home stand scoring
at least 100 each and where next game is away.
They are 5-10 ats in this situation.
GS in this situation where their opponent is coming off a home stand scoring
100 each in 3 games go 1-3 ats
GS O/U 1-6 last 7 games and that lone over was in OT.
PHO O/U 4-2 last 6 and they lost those 2 games that went
over. They play D, they win and it goes
under.
And the other trends that everyone looks at is favorable to
the over and a lean to GS
Statistically capping this, I'm seeing the under for 2
reasons. The geometric mean pulls the
numbers lower because the central tendency is lower than what is pr... [More]
Posted Tuesday, February 03, 2009 06:18 PM
I like these tonight. I know the public are also on these but...the public also wins. GL to the public!
[702] CLEVELAND -10-110
[705] BOSTON -3-110
[706] TOTAL u192-110
(BOSTON vrs PHILADELPHIA)
Posted Monday, February 02, 2009 06:45 PM
I'm looking at these games. Feedback anyone? GLTA
[21206] TOTAL u94-110
(MEMPHIS TOT PTS vrs MEMPHIS TOT PTS)
[21214] TOTAL u91-115
(LA CLIPPERS TOT PTS vrs LA CLIPPERS TOT PTS)
[21230] TOTAL u108½-115
(SAN ANTONIO TOT PTS vrs SAN ANTONIO TOT PTS)
[21232] TOTAL u104-110
(GOLDEN ST TOT PTS vrs GOLDEN ST TOT PTS)
Posted Monday, February 02, 2009 11:28 AM
YTD - 25+ over .500
The all-star game is just around the corner and I'm playing with house money. I'll be cashing out and starting from scratch after the all-star game. With that said, I don't have time today to post capping notes for my plays but I'll share my card. I like the value offered by these numbers. Regardless of the outcome, I feel comfortable buying into these numbers. Each are equal unit plays for me. GLTA.
[502] TOTAL u208-110
(DALLAS vrs ORLANDO)
[504] TOTAL u193½-110
(MEMPHIS vrs WASHINGTON)
[508] MIAMI -9½-110
[512] TOTAL u224½-110
(SACRAMENTO vrs PHOENIX)
[516] TOTAL u213-110
(SAN ANTONIO vrs GOLDEN STATE)
Please do not blindly tail.
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2009 10:14 AM
capping notes:
YTD 48-23
been on a 4 game tailspin so time to deploy a recovery strategy until I get back on track. got hit hard this week.
1. can't win 'em all...can't lose 'em all. SO don't be afraid to bet.2. adjust wagers and reduce unit value until luck turns around.3. do not chase. another day tomorrow.
NEW JERSEY v PHILADELPHIA u198-110
like the value with this play. NBA avg is @ 198 for the year and trending up to about 201+ the last few games. overall, PHI doesn't score or allow 99 a game which leans this under the number. NJ will give up about 101 but thier offense won't score the nba average.
from a home/away angle, PHI tightens up nicely allowing only 93 a game while the offensive production still falls below the league average. NJ games are nice values on the raod since they perform as expected according to their overall numbers which is damn near close to the leaue average.
the real value shows up with both teams' recent numbers. both are scoring and giving up less than their ytd outputs and their H/A performances. so while the league is trending up, recent activities form these teams are trending down.
Lean: under but it loses it's value @ 196
looking at another game but time for breakfast, a haircut and acupuncture.
GLTA...
[More]
Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2009 08:11 AM
YTD 48-19
don't have much time to publish my capping notes but have a look at the IND/ORL total. this is a bargain and a half @215. if I have time, maybe I'll blog my capping notes on my page.
another number that looks attractive this morning, 'as is", is the CHA/LAL total @ 196.5.
other numers on the board to consider with a little line movement.
GLTA
Posted Tuesday, January 27, 2009 07:57 AM
Posted Friday, January 23, 2009 11:55 PM
early capping notes- very early thoughts but I've already played the NY/PHI Under
NY/PHI - good signal on PHI -5 but my play is under 207.5
other considerations:
SAC/MIL - strange signal on MIL -8.5. it's almost a gimme.
CLE/UTA - current line giving CLE points. Good signal for a play.
WAS/POR - the total is attractive. is there value left on the over @ 190.5? i think this get hit overnight and the value disappears by tomorrow.
I'll throw out some more thoughts Saturday once all the numbers are out and settled down.
Posted Friday, January 23, 2009 10:53 AM
Hey gang!
Thursday morning, before even saying hello to me, my friend tells me he had to sell his car because my WED play hit the crapper. Of course he was joking but there's a lesson there somewhere....
Let's hit 'em hard tonight. I'm not sure how much updating I'll be doing today since I have some business to attend to but here are some early thoughts after the line movements overnight.
capping notes-
PHO/CHA - damn, that side number looks whacky. very strong signal on the under. playing the under (200). i try to only play one a day and need to remind myself of that everyday. wagering is a marathon event, pacing is as important as capping and money management
other considerations:
HOU/IND - good signal for HOU (pk). gotta wonder if HOU can pull out a SU win. strong signal for the under (211.5)...in Indy? hmmmmm
MIL/ATL - weak signal for MIL (+5.5) and weak signal for under (203.5)
MEM/NY - very good signal for NY (-6). this actually looks attractive
NO/MIN - good signal for NO (pk). this also looks like a nice number. just win baby
TOR/CHI - weak signal on CHI (-3). two doormat teams on a Friday night. take CHI
NJ/SAS - signal for NJ (+12). as crappy as NJ is, 12 is a value
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE...whatever your play is ...
[More]
Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2009 08:31 PM
I've been looking at the DAL/MIL total. I'd really like to hit this number for the under (203). early thoughts.
Posted Tuesday, January 20, 2009 08:39 AM
Posted Monday, January 19, 2009 01:27 AM
cap notes:
CHI/NY no play
DAL/PHI N/L
TOR/ATL no play
SAS/CHA no play
DEN/HOU U194.5? Opened @196 value left? maybe worth a small play
MIN/LAC MIN -5 opened -3.5 value left? Initially I thought yes but no play
IND/NO U209 already played. might hit it again tomorrow if the lines look good
WAS/GS no value left in the over unless line drops back to 215.5
DET/MEM N/L
PHO/BOS no play (homer play on the C's not a real risk @ -8) if the public jumps back on the C's, better off not playing.
MIL/POR O194 and line is moving down. Wait til tipoff?
CLE/LAL CLE +4.5 I feel like pounding this number as is. also keep an eye out on the total
Posted Sunday, January 18, 2009 12:54 PM
Posted Saturday, January 17, 2009 01:25 PM
Sides isn't my thing...I'm more of a totals guy.
Anyone with me? Is there a lot of value on Utah +5 tonight?
Did the books over-adjust on PHI/NY? 196 to 210?
Posted Friday, January 16, 2009 06:44 PM