barneybeans's Blog

Posted Tuesday, November 17, 2015 01:11 PM

CONMEBOL WC Qualifiers Match Day 4 (-$730)

Match Day 3 Nov 12         +220
CONMEBOL WCQ Running Total -730

link to Match day 3:

Ecuador PK     -120     300/250
Tie            +210     100/210


Let's see what they can do on the road this match game - the line scares me, a little low.  I know, I always say "CONMEBOL plays CONMEBOL tough" and it is true....

Ecuador will probably soon be a favourite every Quito match and will be a real tough battle every match in the qualifiers - only taking them for 2.5 units because this line looks too good to be true.

If Valencia was playing this would be a 5 unit play.

I have this match as ECU 39% Tie 43% Uru 20% - I 'll lay a little wood -120 on the PK with > 80% chance of 0 downside.

Ecuador 2-0

Colombia PK    -150     450/300
Colombia TIE   +215      50/107
Over 2 Goals    EV      200/200

I am not impressed with Brazil and have not been for about 3 years - Argentina tied Brazil after going up, I was hoping Argentina clobbered Brazil in order to get Colombia today @ +½ +120 or something like that but a tie is better than Argentina ... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 11, 2015 06:52 PM

CONMEBOL WC Qualifiers Match Day 3 (-$950)

Match Day 3
Money = -$950 (ouch!)

link to Match day 2:

Venezuela  +½ EVEN      200/200

Bolivia is that bad, regardless of home stadium in the stratosphere....

Venezuela 1-1

Ecuador -½ -EVEN        300/300
Under     2 EVEN        200/200

Ecuador always plays well in the qualifiers and has qualified for 3 of the last 4 World Cups. Their tight style and cohesive play gives a lot of fits to opposing CONMEBOL teams.

Unfortunately Ecuador will be without Valencia and Uruguay will be missing Jose Maria Gimenez but will call on Cavani, good for them.

If Enner Valencia was playing this would be a 5 unit play

Ecuador 1-0

Colombia +½ +120        100/120
Under    2½ -140        280/200

James is back, not 100% will probably get called up and play for Teo in the 65th minute more or less. I like this match to tie 0-0 but will take Colombia on the spread just in case - one bad match does not mean Colombia is done.

Although we don't know the line ups yet I think Bacca and Teo will have a few good shots on goal and if James comes in late he may be able... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 08, 2015 11:09 AM

CONMEBOL WC Qualifiers Match Day 1 (0-0 +/- $0)

Match Day 1
Money= $

BOLIVIA PK -115    -$115/$100

Bolivia is a tough in La Paz, Uruguay struggles there and are missing Cavani and Suarez.

PERU +1 +120  -$50/$60

Will Jackson Martinez step up after the bruised tibia? Teo? Bacca? James out  : But despite all that a great line up:

Ospina; Arias, Balanta, Murillo, Zapata; Sánchez, Guarín; Cuadrado, Martínez, Bacca; Gutierrez.

Colombia does no win by more than 1 goal today.

PERU/COLOMBIA UNDER 2.5 -150  $300/$200

Big bet of the day - I see this game 0-0 or 1-0 in favor of Colombia.
This will not be a scorefest even if Falcao and James were healthy and playing.

PERU/COLOMBIA 3-way Draw/Empate  +325  $50/$162

More to come....


Posted Sunday, May 09, 2010 09:59 AM

Good MLB Advice

Pitchers have about 5 stars under their belts, coming into form, managers are working out bull penn issues and batters are batters, hot and cold.

What does all this mean? This is the first adjustment time. Happens in NBA and NFL as well.

Vegas lines are getting sharper. This is when accomplished MLB players with good money management and a solid bankroll perservere and the squares get booted out - returning again in a bit only to get booted out during other adjustments coming in the season.

My advice is to cut back, pick your spots wisely and take it all in. Don't chase, don't play with scared money and most importantly make sure your system that worked last month is going to work today.

Although pitchers are always what determines the lines, teams are playing more like teams now and more of the whole team needs to be taken into consideration - meaning a hot team scoring 6-9 runs a game only needs an average outting from their pitching staff, starting pitcher included. There is motivation and momentum and stuff in their heads that don't ever get to the stat columns.

There are other little adjustment periods like....

around the all start break b4, after,
and towards the end of the season where every game counts and teams are going for play off spots and other teams don't care

.....that wreak havoc on systems and prior logic. I see it happen all the time.

Bottom line for me is to sit back and relax a b... [More]

Posted Monday, April 12, 2010 01:10 AM

How I bet MLB

For me all bets are for one unit - always - meaning:

FAV -140
DOG +130

line I am:

FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130

Also I am a believer that a play is a play, if not, throw it out. I just never feel the need to play 1Unit, 2unit, 3, 5, 10, 20unit. Why? Becuase that is factored into the Money Line itself and my perception of value in that line as it pertains to that one game/play. Either there is or is not value.

No disrespect to players who love some games more than others. Not my style. So many times I see guys with winning records lose money because of this. Some players control this and keep the units close as in 1*=$1,000 2*=1,200 3*=$1,300 4*=1,400 and 5*=$1,500 and that's it. The 3* being their single Unit and they have room on either side to pump up or pull back a little - but they are all relatively close.

From a bookie's perspective pumping up your bet size means:

Chasing - because you are getting crushed and cannot pay, you will be eating beans and rice for the next two months.

Invincibility - just because you are hot and up more than the usual somehow your capping skills have magnified this particular week in some godlike form that you did not have over the past 10 years - so might as well double and triple your bet sizes to take advantage of this phenomenon? Unload on the lock! What baffles me is why do you all think this amazing capping power is fleeting? I guess you do b... [More]

Posted Sunday, April 11, 2010 11:07 AM

04/11 SUN

04/11 SUN Yes today is really Sunday

RECORD: 4-9, -03.55 UNITS

Yest    2-3, -01.15 UNITS

SD  PADRES     +220 (LISTED)
WAS NATS       +220 (LISTED)
CHI CUBS       +100 (LIST GORZE)

For me all bets are for one unit - always - meaning:

FAV -140
DOG +130

line I am:

FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130



Posted Friday, April 09, 2010 03:36 PM

0409 FRI

RECORD: 1-4,  -2.75 UNITS

KC ROYALS   +140

All bets are Action unless otherwise noted, and for one unit - always - meaning:

FAV -140
DOG +130

line I am:

FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130


Posted Monday, April 05, 2010 10:50 AM

0405 Mon

RECORD: 0-1,  -1.00 UNIT

Lost with the Yanks yesterday CC pitched petter than JB, Yanks ahead a few times. As a dog I think it was a good play and I'd play it again.

Today I think there is value in the following games, hoping to split.

 SD PADRES   +175
 WAS NATS    +190

All bets are Action unless otherwise noted, and for one unit - always - meaning:

FAV -140 
DOG +130

line I am:

FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130


Posted Sunday, April 04, 2010 04:27 PM

0404 Sun

RECORD: 0-0, +/- 0.00 UNITS

 NY YANKEES +105 Action

All bets are one unit - always - meaning:

FAV -140 
DOG +130

line I am:

FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130



User: barneybeans
Joined: March 2003
Location: Columbia

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