barneybeans's Blog

Posted Sunday, May 09, 2010 09:59 AM

Good MLB Advice

Pitchers have about 5 stars under their belts, coming into form, managers are working out bull penn issues and batters are batters, hot and cold.

What does all this mean? This is the first adjustment time. Happens in NBA and NFL as well.

Vegas lines are getting sharper. This is when accomplished MLB players with good money management and a solid bankroll perservere and the squares get booted out - returning again in a bit only to get booted out during other adjustments coming in the season.

My advice is to cut back, pick your spots wisely and take it all in. Don't chase, don't play with scared money and most importantly make sure your system that worked last month is going to work today.

Although pitchers are always what determines the lines, teams are playing more like teams now and more of the whole team needs to be taken into consideration - meaning a hot team scoring 6-9 runs a game only needs an average outting from their pitching staff, starting pitcher included. There is motivation and momentum and stuff in their heads that don't ever get to the stat columns.

There are other little adjustment periods like....

around the all start break b4, after,
and towards the end of the season where every game counts and teams are going for play off spots and other teams don't care

.....that wreak havoc on systems and prior logic. I see it happen all the time.

Bottom line for me is to sit back and relax a b... [More]

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Posted Monday, April 12, 2010 01:10 AM

How I bet MLB

For me all bets are for one unit - always - meaning:

FAV -140
DOG +130

line I am:

FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130

Also I am a believer that a play is a play, if not, throw it out. I just never feel the need to play 1Unit, 2unit, 3, 5, 10, 20unit. Why? Becuase that is factored into the Money Line itself and my perception of value in that line as it pertains to that one game/play. Either there is or is not value.

No disrespect to players who love some games more than others. Not my style. So many times I see guys with winning records lose money because of this. Some players control this and keep the units close as in 1*=$1,000 2*=1,200 3*=$1,300 4*=1,400 and 5*=$1,500 and that's it. The 3* being their single Unit and they have room on either side to pump up or pull back a little - but they are all relatively close.

From a bookie's perspective pumping up your bet size means:

Chasing - because you are getting crushed and cannot pay, you will be eating beans and rice for the next two months.

Invincibility - just because you are hot and up more than the usual somehow your capping skills have magnified this particular week in some godlike form that you did not have over the past 10 years - so might as well double and triple your bet sizes to take advantage of this phenomenon? Unload on the lock! What baffles me is why do you all think this amazing capping power is fleeting? I guess you do b... [More]

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Posted Sunday, April 11, 2010 11:07 AM

04/11 SUN

04/11 SUN Yes today is really Sunday

RECORD: 4-9, -03.55 UNITS

Yest 2-3, -01.15 UNITS

SD PADRES     +220 (LISTED)
WAS NATS       +220 (LISTED)
ATL BRAVES     +180 (LISTED)
DET TIGERS     -200 (ACTION)
HOU ASTROS     +180 (LIST OSWALT)
CHI CUBS       +100 (LIST GORZE)
U 7 SF GIANTS -115 (LISTED OF COURSE)

For me all bets are for one unit - always - meaning:

FAV -140
DOG +130

line I am:

FAV Risk 140 to Win 100
DOG Risk 100 to Win 130

GLTA

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Posted Friday, April 09, 2010 03:36 PM