bense197969's Blog

Posted Thursday, December 15, 2011 10:52 AM

Sparty v.s UGA, and other Big Ten plays.....

Had a pretty solid year betting the Big Ten, this conference is what I follow and watch.  I certainly catch a lot of other action as well, but not like I used to.  For the Bowl games, I got:

Michigan State +3.5 (and some of the ML)....Yes, they've been horrid in bowl games under Dantonio, going 0-for, but I think this team will be focused. This isn't last years CapitalOne Bowl, this ain't a pissed off Bama v.s. an unmotivated MSU.  This is two teams that would probably split a 10 game series (strictly hypothetical), but I think MSU comes in with a chip on their shoulder. MSU 27-23

also on:

Nebraska/S. Carolina UNDER 47
Northwestern +10 
Penn St/Houston UNDER 56.5

Will be adding Wisky at some point, but gonna wait and see if I can get 7.  Will probably be adding Oklahoma as well, but I'm gonna continue to let people drive that line down.  Looking at the Illini (what a shitfest this bowl is), WMU/Purdue OVER.  No play on the Va Tech/Michigan game as of right now.  Sorry no write-ups, I'm short on time but will be around to chat the next few weeks when possible.  good luck ya'll 

Posted Friday, August 06, 2010 11:29 AM

UFC 117 picks

I got smoked at 116, still feeling the loss on Carwin.  It was my biggest play of the year and I felt I had that capped as good as any fight I've bet in years, it just didn't pan out.  It was 13 unit swing, going from thinking Carwin had it won and me winning 8 units, to seeing Lesnar wear him down and me losing 5 units.  But life goes on.  For 117, I've got:

Clay Guida -107 (2.14 units to win 2 units)...I see Guida being too strong for Dos Anjos.  Clay should be able to take him down and out wrestle him for 3 rounds.  This one could put me to sleep from boredom, I'm just hoping it will also put 2 units into my account.

Jon Fitch -104 (1.04 units to win 1 unit)...Pretty much the same blueprint we'll see from Guida.  Not to mention, Alves has had the 1-year plus layoff which has been profitale to fade lately.

Matt Hughes +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)...Hughes already whooped up on Almeida's teacher, Renzo Gracie, I don't see why he can't beat the student.  I really don't like either one of these guys and I'm not a fan of watching either one fight, but I do think there is value in getting Hughes at this price.  I just really hope that if Hughes does win, we don't here Joe Rogan claim that Hughes is back in the Welterweight title picture, because he's not, and he never will be.

Roy Nelson +300 (1 unit to win 3 units)...How can you not be a fan of the fat guy?  JDS is a bad dude, but at some po... [More]

Posted Monday, June 14, 2010 12:56 PM

Underdog of the year, plus UFN plays.....

2010 MMA:   14 - 15,     + 11.78 units

I got crushed at UFC 114, and then I was out of town golfing during 115, so I just took the whole event off, good thing too 'cuz I liked Thiago.  For my underdog of the year (FWIW: my only other underdog of the year was Leonard Garcia +160 a couple of years ago v.s. Jens Pulver and Garcia KO'd him in the first couple of minutes), I got:



Shane Carwin +160 (5 units to win 8 units)....I'm normally a 1 unit bettor with the ocasional 2 unit wager here and there, but I absolutely love this value, unbelievable too me that he is offered this high.  I honestly would take this at +120!!  Maybe that makes me an idiot, but I think this fight is a toss-up, perhaps even Carwin a 55% fav to win this.  Just so many variables against Brock.  Lesnar's layoff certainly favors Carwin, while Brock has been away from the ocatgon battling a career and even life-threating disease, Carwin has been training his ass off.  And it showed in his dismantling of Mir.  Carwin has had two different camps preparing for Brock only to be dissapointed and have the fight postponed, now, in his third camp, he definitely will have a gameplan, considering he's spent an awful lot of time prepping for this fight over the last year. 

Brock is still so "green" when it comes to MMA.  He is bigger than everybody, and that is really his only advantage.&nb... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 04, 2010 09:35 AM

Penn State v.s. Sparty.....

Season:       98 - 94

Sparty Bets: 15 - 8

2-2 posted last night, but actually had a great night, just wasn't able to post my late plays.  Kinda got lucky on the IU/PU UNDER with noone scoring the last couple of minutes, but I've been doing this shit long enough to be owed some wins like that.  For the Sparty game....

Penn State +13.....This game is definitely a trap for Sparty.  They haven't played well for a while now and they are still in shape to tie for first place in the Big Ten.  It's been a rough few weeks for Sparty, and all they need to do is beat PSU and Michigan at the Breslin in the next 4 days, and they will be Big Ten Co-Champs with OSU and Purdue.  Big Ten titles are fun, but there are much bigger goals out there, and despite what 95% of this forum thinks, I still believe this MSU team is a threat to make the Final Four.  But I digress.

I think the win Sunday was nice, it was ugly, but it got this team in position to win the conference again.  So, ultimately, they've done their job so far this season, to a certain extent.  But I look at this game as a bad sandwich spot.  Sparty is coming off an emotional win at Purdue that allowed them to be playing for the title, and the big senior day game looms on the horizon against the hated Wolverines.  Right smack-dab in the middle is a game v.s. a team they already beat by DD's on the road.  A tough si... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 20, 2010 03:38 PM

UFC 110 investments...

2010 MMA:  4-0   +6.55 units 

Had a great 109 and got 2010 off to a great start, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and I bet these fights based on where I see value, so there will be plenty of losses this year, I'm just hoping the units end up in the positive.  These may not be the most popular picks, but here's what I got....

Big Nog -110 (2.2 units to win 2 units)....I've been waiting for +money, but I'll just settle with the -110.  Cain has gotten his career off to a nice start, but Nog is world class, and a huge step up in competition.  Cain obviously has a wrestling advantage, but other than that, I think Nog has him beat in every other category.

Bonnar +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)....I know this isn't a popular pick, but I'm just not sold on the PE yet.  He doesn't have a quality win in the UFC yet, and I think Bonnar realizes this may be his last shot if he's not successful in this fight. 

Dollaway +200 ( 1 unit to win 2 units)....I can't stand this dude, but I'll take an aggressive striker with outstanding wrestling skills @ +200 v.s. a guy that hasn't fought in the UFC in damn near 2 years.  Plus, doesn't Dolloway have to start to live up to that potential sometime?

Jardine +120 (1 unit to win 1.2 units)....I like betting Jardine as a 'dog.  Bader is stepping up in competition, not that Jardine is top tier, but he is certainly better than anybody Bader has f... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 03, 2010 03:50 PM

UFC whatever, February 6...

I haven't been posting much lately here, just haven't seen a whole lot of value on the recent cards.  Here's what I got to kill time the night before the Superbowl....

Thiago +180 (risking 1 unit to win 1.8 units)....I've always liked Swick, but he's always been a bit overrated.  His record is sugar-coated because he spent a few years at 185 fighting bums.  I still can't believe Hardy earned a title shot for beating him.  I think Thiago will be able to take him down at will, and once on the ground, Thiago's BJJ advantage is incredible.  Even standing, Swick's advantage isn't enough to warrant him being a -200 fav. 

Serra -140 (risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit)....I'm a little scared to back Serra because he's been off for a while, but I think he just outclasses Trigg.  Serra should be able to name the way he wins.


Anyone see any value in Sonnen?  Tough to bet against Nate, but 3-to-1 is a nice comeback on a fighter with Chael's experience.

Posted Tuesday, February 02, 2010 10:45 AM

Sparty v.s Bo and the "Grateful Red"......

Season:        60 - 66

Sparty Bets:  11 - 5

Nothing the last couple of days, 2-4 Saturday .  Just can't get on a roll, it's not good to be looking forward to baseball on February 1st.  I have done well on MSU games this season, here's what I got for the big MSU/Wisky game Tuesday....

Wisconsin -2....Let me start off by saying this will be a brief write-up because if I were to really elaborate on this game, I would write for about 6 hours, and I ain't got that type of time.  I have flip-flopped about 100 hundred times on this game the last couple of weeks, and I'm going to stick with my initial lean of Wisky.  However, I will admit, I'm not very confident in this play.

On paper, MSU looks a lot better than Wisky.  But.....this is freackin' Bo, and he's at the Kohl Center.  Bo is 9-0 vs. Izzo away from the Breslin.  The Badgers have already beaten 2 Top 5 teams at the Kohl Center this season, and as far as the importance of the game, well, if Wisky loses this game, they basically have no chance at the Big Ten Title, whereas, if MSU loses this game, they remain the frontrunner to win the conference.  A lot has been made about MSU's success on the road the last season-and-a-half of conference play, but remember, in that entire time span, they haven't played at the Kohl. 

There are defintitely some things to be worried about if you're gonna back the... [More]

Posted Wednesday, December 09, 2009 11:43 AM

One BIG play for UFC 107...

Went 3-1 last Saturday, winning 3 +200 or higher 'dogs and losing the longshot on Veach.  Got real lucky on the wins, but hell, it's gambling, gotta get lucky sometimes.  I've only got 1 play for so far for 107...


Frank Mir -180....I know everybody and their brother is on Mir, but I just don't see how Kongo can win this.  Even standing up, Mir has gotten a lot better and could likely stand toe-to-toe with Kongo, he just doesn't need to.  Mir should be able to take him down at will and then dominate.  Kongo would have to land a very damaging shot in order to win this.  Even if Cheick lands a big one, the second he goes in for the finish, the advantage goes back to Mir.  I think Mir ends this one in the 1st, by submission.

As for Mir getting all of the action, well MMA wagering is different than covering spreads in football/basketball.  When there is heavy action in the other sports, the point spread moves and anything can happen to make the favorite win by any amount of points, in MMA, we're betting ML's, big difference.  We need a "win", not a win by 4 points, 8 points, etc.


Good luck ya'll.....

Posted Tuesday, December 01, 2009 10:11 AM

Big Ten/ACC challenge (Tuesday)....

Season Posted Record:  7 - 9

Sparty Games:              2 - 1

Nothing Monday after the heartbreaking loss on Marquette Sunday.  for Tuesday I got:


Wake Forest +11....I wasn't real impressed when they played Tennessee.  I was big on Purdue and they won, but they just seem to be missing something early in the season.  The Boilers got worked pretty good last year by Duke in this challenge.  PU wins, but I don't think it will be a blowout.

Northwestern +5....I'll take these points, this should be a low-scoring game and NC State flat-out ain't that good this year.  NU is pretty battle-tested for it being the first day of December.  They've already played Butler, Notre Dame, and Iowa State, and won 2 of the 3.

Maryland -4.5....Indiana just ain't very good, and Vazquez is.


No-play for me on the Sparty/UNC game.  The line is right where I thought it would be.  If anything, I lean a bit towards UNC, but not gonna go against UNCForever's POY.  What worries me about Sparty is the turnovers.  This is gonna be a tough venue for Sparty to play in, and if they turn the ball over like they did against Florida, they will get run right out of the gym by a team that they are better than.  One thing that certainly favors MSU is the backcourt.  HUGE advantage there for Sparty.  U... [More]

Posted Friday, June 05, 2009 10:34 AM

Sometimes... it is this easy:

Been on a nice run lately, I'd really feel a lot better about it if not for the beatings I took in Vegas last weekend.  But for bases tonight, I got:
ARI/SD  OVER 7.5.... Davis just faced Gaudin about a week-and-a-half ago, in a 9-7 game.  Now these two oppose each other in a game at SD with a posted total of 7.5?  No, it's not a trap, it's freackin' Doug Davis v.s. Chad Gaudin with 7.5 for an O/U.  7.5's are reserved for Hamels, Lincecum, Carpenter, Johan, Haren, etc., not Davis v.s. Gaudin.  They've each got whips around 1.50, with that being the case, if we have an average of 3 guys reach base each inning, can we not get 8 runs tonight?  I would think so.  Oh yeah, and neither team is known for stellar bullpen work.
Good luck ya'll 

Posted Wednesday, May 27, 2009 01:12 PM

My biggest MMA wager of the year

Posted Record:  22 - 22 (favs: 7-1, dogs: 15-21)   Went 1-2 at UFC 98, breaking dead even (+0.0 units).  I thought Serra could have won the decision against Hughes, but, oh well, what can ya do?    This is the one I've been waiting for.....I rarely bet favorites in MMA, because I just usually don't spot a lot of value in them.  I don't claim to be the most educated person in this forum when it comes to MMA, but I do know an awful lot about numbers and value, and to me, this line is a gift.   Nathan Diaz (-140) v.s. Joe Stevenson (+110) June 20:   Nathan Diaz -140.....This is fight between two fighters headed in opposite directions.  Despite his recent loss to Clay Guida, Diaz is on the rise and eventually will be a top contender in the 155.  Stevenson has beaten a few lower-tier fighters but has just been a punching bag lately.  Granted, losses to Penn, Sanchez, and Florian are nothing to be ashamed of, but Diaz isn't very far from being on that level.  Stevenson was actaully losing to Tibau also, before he caught him in a guillotine.    Diaz obviously has a huge height advantage, which translates into a nice reach advantage.  I see him being able to "pepper" Stevenson with jabs while they're standing, and then Joe will go for a takedown.  And that is when Diaz is at his best, when he's on the ground.  So naturally, if Diaz has a big advantage standing and on the ground,  h... [More]

Posted Thursday, February 19, 2009 08:45 AM

Wolverine Bet for Thursday.....

Posted Sparty Record:         8 - 4 Posted Wolverine Record:    7 - 2   Nice winner with the under on the Sparty game Tuesday.  After a 49-point first half, I hedged with the over in the second half and had a 12-point cushion to middle with, which hit.  So it was a nice night but I had to sweat it out a lot more than I thought I would since Purdue lit it up in the 2nd half, but a very profitable night.  For tonight....   Michigan -3.5....It pains me to root for this team right now becuase I despise the Wolverines and would love it if they didn't even make the dance, but I set aside my feelings when it comes to gambling.  This is a huge game for both teams, but probably a bit bigger for Michigan, since it's at Crisler.  I think their momentum carries over from their first road win of the season and with the crowd behind them, they pull away and win by 8+.  Minny has been nothing special on the road and they probably aren't playing with the sense of urgency Michigan is.  However, look for Minnesota to return the favor when they play at the "Barn" in a couple of weeks.    I actually have my next three plays on Wolverine games pretty much decided already.  I think Iowa beats Michigan Sunday (and covers) and then as of right now, I really like the Purdue/Michigan game to stay under next Thursday.  But a lot can change.   Good luck ya'll!!!!! ... [More]


User: bense197969
Joined: November 2005
Location: Michigan
Team: Michigan St Spartans
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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