UFC 117 picks

I got smoked at 116, still feeling the loss on Carwin.  It was my biggest play of the year and I felt I had that capped as good as any fight I've bet in years, it just didn't pan out.  It was 13 unit swing, going from thinking Carwin had it won and me winning 8 units, to seeing Lesnar wear him down and me losing 5 units.  But life goes on.  For 117, I've got:

Clay Guida -107 (2.14 units to win 2 units)...I see Guida being too strong for Dos Anjos.  Clay should be able to take him down and out wrestle him for 3 rounds.  This one could put me to sleep from boredom, I'm just hoping it will also put 2 units into my account.

Jon Fitch -104 (1.04 units to win 1 unit)...Pretty much the same blueprint we'll see from Guida.  Not to mention, Alves has had the 1-year plus layoff which has been profitale to fade lately.

Matt Hughes +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)...Hughes already whooped up on Almeida's teacher, Renzo Gracie, I don't see why he can't beat the student.  I really don't like either one of these guys and I'm not a fan of watching either one fight, but I do think there is value in getting Hughes at this price.  I just really hope that if Hughes does win, we don't here Joe Rogan claim that Hughes is back in the Welterweight title picture, because he's not, and he never will be.

Roy Nelson +300 (1 unit to win 3 units)...How can you not be a fan of the fat guy?  JDS is a bad dude, but at some po... [More]

Underdog of the year, plus UFN plays.....

2010 MMA:   14 - 15,     + 11.78 units

I got crushed at UFC 114, and then I was out of town golfing during 115, so I just took the whole event off, good thing too 'cuz I liked Thiago.  For my underdog of the year (FWIW: my only other underdog of the year was Leonard Garcia +160 a couple of years ago v.s. Jens Pulver and Garcia KO'd him in the first couple of minutes), I got:

 

 

Shane Carwin +160 (5 units to win 8 units)....I'm normally a 1 unit bettor with the ocasional 2 unit wager here and there, but I absolutely love this value, unbelievable too me that he is offered this high.  I honestly would take this at +120!!  Maybe that makes me an idiot, but I think this fight is a toss-up, perhaps even Carwin a 55% fav to win this.  Just so many variables against Brock.  Lesnar's layoff certainly favors Carwin, while Brock has been away from the ocatgon battling a career and even life-threating disease, Carwin has been training his ass off.  And it showed in his dismantling of Mir.  Carwin has had two different camps preparing for Brock only to be dissapointed and have the fight postponed, now, in his third camp, he definitely will have a gameplan, considering he's spent an awful lot of time prepping for this fight over the last year. 

Brock is still so "green" when it comes to MMA.  He is bigger than everybody, and that is really his only advantage.&nb... [More]

UFC 110 investments...

2010 MMA:  4-0   +6.55 units 

Had a great 109 and got 2010 off to a great start, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and I bet these fights based on where I see value, so there will be plenty of losses this year, I'm just hoping the units end up in the positive.  These may not be the most popular picks, but here's what I got....

Big Nog -110 (2.2 units to win 2 units)....I've been waiting for +money, but I'll just settle with the -110.  Cain has gotten his career off to a nice start, but Nog is world class, and a huge step up in competition.  Cain obviously has a wrestling advantage, but other than that, I think Nog has him beat in every other category.

Bonnar +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)....I know this isn't a popular pick, but I'm just not sold on the PE yet.  He doesn't have a quality win in the UFC yet, and I think Bonnar realizes this may be his last shot if he's not successful in this fight. 

Dollaway +200 ( 1 unit to win 2 units)....I can't stand this dude, but I'll take an aggressive striker with outstanding wrestling skills @ +200 v.s. a guy that hasn't fought in the UFC in damn near 2 years.  Plus, doesn't Dolloway have to start to live up to that potential sometime?

Jardine +120 (1 unit to win 1.2 units)....I like betting Jardine as a 'dog.  Bader is stepping up in competition, not that Jardine is top tier, but he is certainly better than anybody Bader has f... [More]

UFC whatever, February 6...

I haven't been posting much lately here, just haven't seen a whole lot of value on the recent cards.  Here's what I got to kill time the night before the Superbowl....

Thiago +180 (risking 1 unit to win 1.8 units)....I've always liked Swick, but he's always been a bit overrated.  His record is sugar-coated because he spent a few years at 185 fighting bums.  I still can't believe Hardy earned a title shot for beating him.  I think Thiago will be able to take him down at will, and once on the ground, Thiago's BJJ advantage is incredible.  Even standing, Swick's advantage isn't enough to warrant him being a -200 fav. 

Serra -140 (risking 1.4 units to win 1 unit)....I'm a little scared to back Serra because he's been off for a while, but I think he just outclasses Trigg.  Serra should be able to name the way he wins.

 

Anyone see any value in Sonnen?  Tough to bet against Nate, but 3-to-1 is a nice comeback on a fighter with Chael's experience.

One BIG play for UFC 107...

Went 3-1 last Saturday, winning 3 +200 or higher 'dogs and losing the longshot on Veach.  Got real lucky on the wins, but hell, it's gambling, gotta get lucky sometimes.  I've only got 1 play for so far for 107...

 

Frank Mir -180....I know everybody and their brother is on Mir, but I just don't see how Kongo can win this.  Even standing up, Mir has gotten a lot better and could likely stand toe-to-toe with Kongo, he just doesn't need to.  Mir should be able to take him down at will and then dominate.  Kongo would have to land a very damaging shot in order to win this.  Even if Cheick lands a big one, the second he goes in for the finish, the advantage goes back to Mir.  I think Mir ends this one in the 1st, by submission.

As for Mir getting all of the action, well MMA wagering is different than covering spreads in football/basketball.  When there is heavy action in the other sports, the point spread moves and anything can happen to make the favorite win by any amount of points, in MMA, we're betting ML's, big difference.  We need a "win", not a win by 4 points, 8 points, etc.

 

Good luck ya'll.....

My biggest MMA wager of the year

Posted Record:  22 - 22 (favs: 7-1, dogs: 15-21)   Went 1-2 at UFC 98, breaking dead even (+0.0 units).  I thought Serra could have won the decision against Hughes, but, oh well, what can ya do?    This is the one I've been waiting for.....I rarely bet favorites in MMA, because I just usually don't spot a lot of value in them.  I don't claim to be the most educated person in this forum when it comes to MMA, but I do know an awful lot about numbers and value, and to me, this line is a gift.   Nathan Diaz (-140) v.s. Joe Stevenson (+110) June 20:   Nathan Diaz -140.....This is fight between two fighters headed in opposite directions.  Despite his recent loss to Clay Guida, Diaz is on the rise and eventually will be a top contender in the 155.  Stevenson has beaten a few lower-tier fighters but has just been a punching bag lately.  Granted, losses to Penn, Sanchez, and Florian are nothing to be ashamed of, but Diaz isn't very far from being on that level.  Stevenson was actaully losing to Tibau also, before he caught him in a guillotine.    Diaz obviously has a huge height advantage, which translates into a nice reach advantage.  I see him being able to "pepper" Stevenson with jabs while they're standing, and then Joe will go for a takedown.  And that is when Diaz is at his best, when he's on the ground.  So naturally, if Diaz has a big advantage standing and on the ground,  h... [More]