bense197969's Blog

UFC 110 investments...

By bense197969 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, February 20, 2010 03:38 PM   11 comments

2010 MMA:  4-0   +6.55 units 

Had a great 109 and got 2010 off to a great start, but this is a marathon, not a sprint, and I bet these fights based on where I see value, so there will be plenty of losses this year, I'm just hoping the units end up in the positive.  These may not be the most popular picks, but here's what I got....

Big Nog -110 (2.2 units to win 2 units)....I've been waiting for +money, but I'll just settle with the -110.  Cain has gotten his career off to a nice start, but Nog is world class, and a huge step up in competition.  Cain obviously has a wrestling advantage, but other than that, I think Nog has him beat in every other category.

Bonnar +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)....I know this isn't a popular pick, but I'm just not sold on the PE yet.  He doesn't have a quality win in the UFC yet, and I think Bonnar realizes this may be his last shot if he's not successful in this fight. 

Dollaway +200 ( 1 unit to win 2 units)....I can't stand this dude, but I'll take an aggressive striker with outstanding wrestling skills @ +200 v.s. a guy that hasn't fought in the UFC in damn near 2 years.  Plus, doesn't Dolloway have to start to live up to that potential sometime?

Jardine +120 (1 unit to win 1.2 units)....I like betting Jardine as a 'dog.  Bader is stepping up in competition, not that Jardine is top tier, but he is certainly better than anybody Bader has faced.  I think Jardines leg kicks and unorthodox striking will keep Bader at bay.

Sotiropulous +220 (1 unit to win 2.2 units) ....I never have a problem fading Stevenson, especially when I can get 2-to-1. 

 

Good luck ya'll, should be a good card, no real huge favs, so the fighters are pretty evenly matched. 

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--phillyfan-- says:
02/20/10 04:09PM

didnt mean it its a definite W, i used a poor choice of words there, i meant its a no-brainer to me in terms of a value play, i would never lay that amount with joe daddy when even though he's a bjj black belt with a vice-like guilitine, he's been submitted rather easily by florian and penn and sotiropolous's bjj is top notch with great transitions and a very good guard with a heavy top game should help him tonight......  with that level of jiu jitsu its a no-brainer for me at 2-1 odds....       he's been working his way up the ladder and its not his fault the ufc hasnt put tougher competition in front of him..  tonight he gets to prove himself vs a proven veteran...   

Jamieace says:
02/20/10 04:56PM
What do you guys thonk about taking CroCop to merk this last minute fill-in? Its -600.  I'm leaning towards taking a stab at

it, Mirko isnt what he used to be, but I mean cummon. What could this Anthony Perosh dude really have for him?

bense197969 says:
02/20/10 05:16PM

 

Lookin' for a doggy-dog night

JackedUp says:
02/20/10 05:17PM
Backing potentially washed up fighters at -600 is a quick way to a heart attack even though the Cop should win.

BOL
bense197969 says:
02/20/10 05:20PM

 

I very rarely am willing to lay much more than -180, so Cro Cop at -600 isn't even in consideration for me.  Plus, you've gotta factor in that he's a headcase and this Perrosh is supposed to be a ground specialist, which could actually be trouble for Cro Cop.  I would imagine Cro Cop KO's him, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet on it.  Good luck with whatever you decide.

--phillyfan-- says:
02/20/10 11:52PM
sotiropolous         
TheDoctor195 says:
02/21/10 12:21AM


Great call, his bjj was amazing.  I fell for the greg jackson hype.  George Dominated
GuidaClayAllDay says:
02/21/10 02:21PM




x = wagered fighter's line
x < -200: 4-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 6-2 75%
EVEN = x = +200:1-3-1 25%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%

UFC 110: +4.89u
2010 YTD: +8.53u

Some Quick Thoughts:

Nogueira/Velasquez: I thought Cain had a good chance at a GnP TKO, but I did not see that knockdown coming, especially with Nog's chin. Cain was much faster than Nog and his speed/endurance is what really makes him dangerous at the Heavyweight level.

Silva/Bisping: There were times where I thought Bisping had Silva in trouble against the cage, but when Silva began to swing, Bisping gave up his advantage and retreated right away in typical Bisping fashion. Close fight, but Silva landing his wild power shots (and the crowd reacting afterwords) caught the judges attention...yet all 3 judges probably gave Bisping the 1st, and Silva the 2nd and 3rd. Very surreal moment at the end of that fight, with Silva giving everything he's got, knocking Bisping down, and getting a huge applause after the bell.

Bader/Jardine: I'd like to see Bader throw more "on-the-way-out" punches from the clinch. Even though Jardine had more gas late, it did not give him a serious edge as he was always a step slower than Bader.

Bonnar/Soszynski: Surprised Soszynski didn't go for a takedown in the first. He was winning the exchanges but it was becoming more of an even fight in the second. MMA betting gods threw a bone at Soszynski bettors this time, as it should have been a no-contest...and it might be ruled a no-contest later this week.

Lytle/Foster:Too bad the kneebar came out of thin air; this would have probably been a great 3 rounder to watch. Lytle shows that even though he likes to bag, he is always a submission threat (still can't find out who gave him his black belt in BJJ, if anyone knows I would appreciate a response).
ABCapper says:
02/21/10 03:14PM
if joe daddy showed anything, it's that he can take a punch/kick.  how many times did you see him get cracked with a clean shot right on the button?  i know sotiropilous isn't the most powerful guy, but he beat quarters out of daddy.  not to mention how he straight up dominated the ground game.
ABCapper says:
02/21/10 03:15PM
another thing, i'd have to say cain is now world class
K4ngur13 says:
02/21/10 05:30PM
Nice

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User: bense197969
Joined: November 2005
Location: Michigan
Team: Michigan St Spartans
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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