bense197969's Blog

My biggest MMA wager of the year

By bense197969 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, May 27, 2009 01:12 PM   17 comments
Posted Record:  22 - 22 (favs: 7-1, dogs: 15-21)
 
Went 1-2 at UFC 98, breaking dead even (+0.0 units).  I thought Serra could have won the decision against Hughes, but, oh well, what can ya do? 
 
This is the one I've been waiting for.....I rarely bet favorites in MMA, because I just usually don't spot a lot of value in them.  I don't claim to be the most educated person in this forum when it comes to MMA, but I do know an awful lot about numbers and value, and to me, this line is a gift.
 
Nathan Diaz (-140) v.s. Joe Stevenson (+110) June 20:
 
Nathan Diaz -140.....This is fight between two fighters headed in opposite directions.  Despite his recent loss to Clay Guida, Diaz is on the rise and eventually will be a top contender in the 155.  Stevenson has beaten a few lower-tier fighters but has just been a punching bag lately.  Granted, losses to Penn, Sanchez, and Florian are nothing to be ashamed of, but Diaz isn't very far from being on that level.  Stevenson was actaully losing to Tibau also, before he caught him in a guillotine. 
 
Diaz obviously has a huge height advantage, which translates into a nice reach advantage.  I see him being able to "pepper" Stevenson with jabs while they're standing, and then Joe will go for a takedown.  And that is when Diaz is at his best, when he's on the ground.  So naturally, if Diaz has a big advantage standing and on the ground,  he is an overwhelming favorite to win this fight, and at -140, it is very much worthy of a large wager.
 
I've got a couple units spread out over a couple of different books and I head out to Vegas in 2 days, and I will certainly be betting it out there as well.  This is one of those fights that makes me yell, FUCK MONEY MANAGEMENT!!!!
 
Good luck with whatever you guys do!!!!
17 comments
comment Post A Comment
MoneyShot says:
05/27/09 02:12PM
MoneyShot says:
05/27/09 02:22PM

really? good info, i didnt know that.

MoneyShot says:
05/27/09 02:23PM
Diaz is -120 at pinny Bense
bense197969 says:
05/28/09 12:29AM

 

Of course, chalk up another bad line for Bense!!  I get them all

boberts427 says:
05/28/09 12:19PM
i read it wrong

dcchan4 says:
05/28/09 03:55PM
i agree, the only chance i see for stevenson is getting diaz on the ground and just laying on him for 15 min and getting a decision
gionetti says:
05/29/09 01:30AM
esplanade??? U dont think DIAZ is anywhere near the top at 155. A pick em-hahahahahahaha. MoneyShot diaz is 120????? if ur saying thats his weight ur a dummy too. bense great post, great wager. Unless Diaz gets disqualified or has a heart attack in the ring, this could be the end of the line for Joe DADDY in the UFC. Dont get me wrong he is good fighter, but not great, he could do well in other organization. Cmon now if ur gonna comment on a fighter at least know what the heck ur talking about, u just sound like a moron. DIAZ BY SOME KINDA CHOKE over JOE DADDY PS.bet large bense
Skanless1 says:
06/03/09 01:44PM
crow (or anyone else).. where do you bet MMA parlays.. bookmaker doesn't offer them.
Steven19083 says:
06/03/09 01:53PM
I do them at 5dimes. They even let me add prop bets like "fight doesn't go 5 rounds" into parlays ... which is the main reason I jumped ship from Bodog.  If you don't want to add prop bets into parlays though, Bodog has better odds for the favorites and lets you parlay boxing + mma + baseball etc all together.
bense197969 says:
06/15/09 10:42AM
6 days 'til fight night, I just added 2 more units with my local, Diaz better be ready.  I just don't see how Joe Daddy will be able to mount any kind of an attack.  I've been wrong plenty of times before, but I think Diaz should be -180 or higher, that's why I'm pounding it.  Good luck gentlemen!!!

 

I might add a play on Burns if I can get a nice +money line, Lytle is old and his fighting hasn't evolved like the rest of the sport.

 

 

whitesox11 says:
06/21/09 12:07AM
How did u do BENSE?
Steven19083 says:
06/21/09 12:50AM
Tough night for everyone, bro. I hope your units are <$100
MrKnish says:
06/21/09 01:32AM

Oh Really? So who did you have? everyone that won? I never see you post plays, only talk shit before or after the fights are over.

Steven19083 says:
06/21/09 02:04AM

I was talking to the OP ... he said it was his biggest wager of the year

MrKnish says:
06/21/09 02:06AM

Don't bother with him, he likes to jump in after the fights are over and talk shit. He never posts plays, just a shit talker.

bense197969 says:
06/21/09 09:10AM

 

Yeah, it's all good though.  Ya win some, you lose some.  The money comes and goes when you gamble, what gets me, is the way that fight went down.  Nate almost looked pre-occupied or something, like this fight didn't mean much to him.  I gotta give it to Joe though, he looked pretty good and Greg Jackson sure can gameplan for a fighter.

bense197969 says:
06/21/09 09:12AM

 

You, sir, are 100% correct.  In fact, this is the most credible statement I've ever seen in any forum on covers.com in the 4 years I've been on here.

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User: bense197969
Joined: November 2005
Location: Michigan
Team: Michigan St Spartans
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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