2010 MMA: 14 - 15, + 11.78 units
I got crushed at UFC 114, and then I was out of town golfing during 115, so I just took the whole event off, good thing too 'cuz I liked Thiago. For my underdog of the year (FWIW: my only other underdog of the year was Leonard Garcia +160 a couple of years ago v.s. Jens Pulver and Garcia KO'd him in the first couple of minutes), I got:
Shane Carwin +160 (5 units to win 8 units)....I'm normally a 1 unit bettor with the ocasional 2 unit wager here and there, but I absolutely love this value, unbelievable too me that he is offered this high. I honestly would take this at +120!! Maybe that makes me an idiot, but I think this fight is a toss-up, perhaps even Carwin a 55% fav to win this. Just so many variables against Brock. Lesnar's layoff certainly favors Carwin, while Brock has been away from the ocatgon battling a career and even life-threating disease, Carwin has been training his ass off. And it showed in his dismantling of Mir. Carwin has had two different camps preparing for Brock only to be dissapointed and have the fight postponed, now, in his third camp, he definitely will have a gameplan, considering he's spent an awful lot of time prepping for this fight over the last year.
Brock is still so "green" when it comes to MMA. He is bigger than everybody, and that is really his only advantage. His size/strength advantage has been huge in his previous UFC fights and that won't be the case in the fight. While he still owns the advantage over Carwin, it is not enough to win this fight on that alone. If he is able to take Shane down, Carwin has the wrestling ability and strength to get back up, which is something Brock hasn't seen in an opponent yet. Not to mention, Carwin is by far the best striker Brock has ever faced, so when he shoots on Carwin, if Brock isn't aware of the strike, it will be lights out for him. All of Brocks previous opponents lacked KO power, Carwin has it in every one of his limbs.
I love the fact that Carwin is actually the more experienced fighter for the first time in his career. Although this fight isn't likely to be a long grueling war, experience is still nice to have on our side.
I also like the fact that every single second that these two fighters are standing, pretty much favors Carwin. Now, I'm not saying Brock can't land a big shot standing up, but I do think he isn't very likely do so. Carwin hits hard, very hard. I think Brock will find that out rather early. Carwin by TKO, 1st round!!!
For UFC Fight Night:
Hammil -140 (1.4 units to win 1 unit)
Leben +300 (1 unit to win 3 units)
will likely add a couple more...
Good luck ya'll !!!!!!
Izzo..........Please Stay !!!!!!!!!!