bense197969's Blog

UFC 117 picks

By bense197969 | View all Posts
Posted Friday, August 06, 2010 11:29 AM   17 comments

I got smoked at 116, still feeling the loss on Carwin.  It was my biggest play of the year and I felt I had that capped as good as any fight I've bet in years, it just didn't pan out.  It was 13 unit swing, going from thinking Carwin had it won and me winning 8 units, to seeing Lesnar wear him down and me losing 5 units.  But life goes on.  For 117, I've got:

Clay Guida -107 (2.14 units to win 2 units)...I see Guida being too strong for Dos Anjos.  Clay should be able to take him down and out wrestle him for 3 rounds.  This one could put me to sleep from boredom, I'm just hoping it will also put 2 units into my account.

Jon Fitch -104 (1.04 units to win 1 unit)...Pretty much the same blueprint we'll see from Guida.  Not to mention, Alves has had the 1-year plus layoff which has been profitale to fade lately.

Matt Hughes +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)...Hughes already whooped up on Almeida's teacher, Renzo Gracie, I don't see why he can't beat the student.  I really don't like either one of these guys and I'm not a fan of watching either one fight, but I do think there is value in getting Hughes at this price.  I just really hope that if Hughes does win, we don't here Joe Rogan claim that Hughes is back in the Welterweight title picture, because he's not, and he never will be.

Roy Nelson +300 (1 unit to win 3 units)...How can you not be a fan of the fat guy?  JDS is a bad dude, but at some point this fight will hit the ground, and I think that's where Nelson could ultimately finish it.  3-to-1 on the fat guy sounds valuable to me.

Rodney Wallace +500 (.5 units to win 2.5 units)...Davis took this fight on short notice and this is a drop-off in competition for him.  Defitnitely the possibility of Davis being under-prepared and getting caught by one of those power-packed shots of Wallace.  And hell, does a +500 fighter ever look like a wise bet before the fight?

Parlay:  Silva/Saunders (1 unit to win .8 units)

 

Good luck ya'll!!  I've got a big golf outing Saturday afternoon, I'm hoping I don't drink too much and pass out and miss the fights, but who knows?

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rush1184 says:
08/06/10 03:45PM
im with you on all the fights except the roy nelson and fitch fight. I think alves has learnt from the Gsp fight, he will be focusing on his takedown defense, and im pretty sure we will see a knee to fitch s face when he shoots for a take down... But like ypu said ring rust might be an issue for alves.. he has to cut alot of weight. I see JDS knocking out big country in the first round. hes scary on his feet, and his grond game hasnt been tested so we dont know, but if he can avoid the take down and avoid nelson laying onhim for 3 rounds he shold win it.. good luck on ur picks
bense197969 says:
08/07/10 07:41AM

 

Well, this may sound cliche', but I think Guida's intensity is hard to train for and there ain't no way Emerson/Bradley/Etim push the pace like Guida.  Diego pounded on Guida that 1st round and Clay was actually the aggressor the rest of the fight, despite eing completely covered in blood.  Bottom line, Clay Guida is a savage.  Remember, not even two years ago, Guida was considered a contender at 155.  He's lost to Diego and Florian and all of a sudden he's a bum?  I'm not saying he wins this fight hands down, I just think he's lost to a couple of the best 155ers in the world, but he's also got wins over Danzig and Diaz which I think are more impressive than any of Dos Anjos' wins.  I'm aware of Dos Anjos' leg kicks, I just don't think he'll be able to utilize them when he's on his back eating elbows. 

I certainly don't like being on the other side of you MR219, and I know when you place a bet it's gonna be backed with solid reasoning, but I'm on Guida in this one.

bense197969 says:
08/07/10 07:45AM

 

Good to hear.  I sure hope Roy can take him down, or else we may lose our bet pretty early into the fight, but I like the value in Roy.

MR219 says:
08/07/10 11:09AM

Bense, solid reasoning as always, but like I said, Dos Anjos off of his back is very intersting to watch, and he is very good with getting submissions from the bottom.  I have actually just upped my play on this to 4 units.  Yes, Guida has an experience advantage, but I still would rather have my money on the up and coming fighter who has more tools to pull this one out.

bense197969 says:
08/07/10 03:28PM
Geezus, you upped your bet, man I hope you lose though!   Man, eventually we'll agree on a big one here in the future but I hope you lose your ass tonight   Let's get Fitch!!!!!! 
dj_yaz says:
08/07/10 04:09PM
Im opposite on alot of your picks too
i got

Dos Santos -385----> Even if Roy gets him down, Dos santos has the tools to fight on his back, but with his speed and agility i dont think it gets to the ground or stays on the ground long

Almeida -191 ----> Just because hughes beat almeidas teacher doesnt mean hes going to beat him. No offence to renzo but he was not ready for that fight and was so out of shape. you could see how gassed he was by the 2nd round. Hughes is on a mad decline, im actually surprised hes still fighting. Danas been giving him some easy competition and now he has to prove hes still able to keep up

Alves -128----> They fought 4 years ago when alves was new to the game. His weight cutting abilities hindered his performance first fight and u could see how tired he was. I know alves has been off for a year but i dont think hes a slump. hes been training hard and alves is just a beast. Should be a good fight but Fitch definitely will not do what he did to him last time.

Sonnen +385---> First of all i want silva to win. but Sonnen @ 385 is a price i cant turn down especially after what hes proved. I hate the guy but i think he will give anderson a solid fight. If anderson cant handle control the ground sonnen will take this match.

Following MR219 on the dos anjos pick. i dont see how the person above says guida is not exciting. dude comes out to fight everytime and always puts on a show

BOL to everyone tonight
nwcrazy says:
08/07/10 04:18PM
I'll definitely take Silva over Sonnen.

But I think JDS kills Roy Nelson.

I honestly think JDS is too quick for a slow guy like Nelson. Roy's shots will miss. As time goes on, his takedown attempts should slow down considerably. Then BAMMMM, KO by JDS.

But if he gets lucky enough to take down and hold JDS, I think JDS is good enough to defend himself until stand-up time.

My 2 cents
JackedUp says:
08/07/10 04:30PM
GL with those dogs, every dog has its day...
TheDoctor195 says:
08/07/10 04:34PM
I am only playing 2 fights tonight and you are on both of them.
Fitch even 5 units
Hughes +170 2 units

I was leaning Guida with dos Anjos coming off being sick and not training fully.

good luck

MR219 says:
08/07/10 04:51PM
That illness was about 3 weeks to a month ago, and supposedly was not much of anything...
KineProfessor says:
08/08/10 12:18AM
Nice job Beast Mode - very well done.

Now we can look to fade Hughes against a top level opponent
ApocalypseLater says:
08/08/10 01:08AM
holy shit! the Silva - Sonnen fight was unbelievable... i'm still in shock!
bense197969 says:
08/08/10 09:57AM

 

Huh? 

bense197969 says:
08/08/10 10:06AM

 

 

bense197969 says:
08/08/10 10:11AM

 

 

Sorry ya'll, don't mean to bump my own thread, but this type of shit cracks me up.  This dude posts in my thread that a -180 fav will win by submission and he tells me to count on it.  And then his heavy fav gets subbed in the 1st 4 minutes of the fight.  Now that is some funny shit

Now don't get me wrong, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but when you're gambling, don't ever "count on it". 

cacabware says:
08/08/10 12:12PM

you deserve the bump bense...................

nice job

MR219 says:
08/08/10 05:26PM
Nice call on Hughes.  It is a shame that Dos Anjos got hurt in the fight, but nonetheless, a good call on Guida as well.  
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User: bense197969
Joined: November 2005
Location: Michigan
Team: Michigan St Spartans
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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