bense197969's Blog

One BIG play for UFC 107...

By bense197969 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, December 09, 2009 11:43 AM   10 comments

Went 3-1 last Saturday, winning 3 +200 or higher 'dogs and losing the longshot on Veach.  Got real lucky on the wins, but hell, it's gambling, gotta get lucky sometimes.  I've only got 1 play for so far for 107...

 

Frank Mir -180....I know everybody and their brother is on Mir, but I just don't see how Kongo can win this.  Even standing up, Mir has gotten a lot better and could likely stand toe-to-toe with Kongo, he just doesn't need to.  Mir should be able to take him down at will and then dominate.  Kongo would have to land a very damaging shot in order to win this.  Even if Cheick lands a big one, the second he goes in for the finish, the advantage goes back to Mir.  I think Mir ends this one in the 1st, by submission.

As for Mir getting all of the action, well MMA wagering is different than covering spreads in football/basketball.  When there is heavy action in the other sports, the point spread moves and anything can happen to make the favorite win by any amount of points, in MMA, we're betting ML's, big difference.  We need a "win", not a win by 4 points, 8 points, etc.

 

Good luck ya'll.....

10 comments
comment Post A Comment
DTher85 says:
12/09/09 11:42AM


Yeah the shitty part is if Mir loses, you can bet on some doucher who does not post in this forum to come in and make fun of the covers bloodbath or something.
bense197969 says:
12/09/09 11:48AM

 

Hah, no shit, I wish we could a line whether or not that happens!!

TheDoctor195 says:
12/09/09 01:08PM
Bense:
I dont think that win over big Nog showed Mir improved hand skills, however I think it showed how that staph infection affect Big Nogs game Plan. 

I also see Mir winning this fight as long as he is smart enough to realize his advantage is on the ground not the feet. 
bense197969 says:
12/10/09 12:41AM
Monkeybongos says:
12/11/09 10:58AM
bense, have you considered the effects of Mir's last fight? Maybe it won't be an issue-not sure how much damage to the noggin he sustained-but a beat down like that can effect a fighter's confidence...
bense197969 says:
12/11/09 08:29PM

The whiskey has got the better of me tonight, and I added one more play....

 

DaMarques Johnson +210.....Evidently, he feels like a much more confident fighter since he's been out of the spotlight.  Plus, the dude has skills, he's just cocky.

 

That's it for me, Mir and Johnson.  Was gonna add Diego, but decided against it.  Good luck everybody!!!

MR219 says:
12/11/09 11:59PM

I also have a gut feeling Johnson pulls the upset.  I think Garcia is the better fighter at this point, but I am not sure he is smart/aggressive enough to take advantage.  I also love Mir, and a good no play on Diego, b/c he won't win...BOL!

bense197969 says:
12/12/09 11:02AM

 

Luv having you on my side, you know your MMA shit!!  Lets get paid tonight!!!

bense197969 says:
12/12/09 12:07PM

Adding:

Shane Nelson +275....Who?  I don't know anything about this dude, but Wiman should not be a -350 fav against anyone.

 

Final Card:

Mir -180 (540-300)

Johnson +210 (100-210)

Nelson +275 (50-137.50)

 

Good luck ya'll, I can't even watch tonight, got a work Christmas party   But hey, free drinks

bense197969 says:
12/13/09 12:03AM

   All right, another nice night!! 

 

Now gonna watch Diego/Penn without any money on it.  But I would love to see Diego pull the upset.

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User: bense197969
Joined: November 2005
Location: Michigan
Team: Michigan St Spartans
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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