bense197969's Blog

Penn State v.s. Sparty.....

By bense197969 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, March 04, 2010 09:35 AM

15 comments

Season: 98 - 94

Sparty Bets: 15 - 8

2-2 posted last night, but actually had a great night, just wasn't able to post my late plays. Kinda got lucky on the IU/PU UNDER with noone scoring the last couple of minutes, but I've been doing this shit long enough to be owed some wins like that. For the Sparty game....

Penn State +13.....This game is definitely a trap for Sparty. They haven't played well for a while now and they are still in shape to tie for first place in the Big Ten. It's been a rough few weeks for Sparty, and all they need to do is beat PSU and Michigan at the Breslin in the next 4 days, and they will be Big Ten Co-Champs with OSU and Purdue. Big Ten titles are fun, but there are much bigger goals out there, and despite what 95% of this forum thinks, I still believe this MSU team is a threat to make the Final Four. But I digress.

I think the win Sunday was nice, it was ugly, but it got this team in position to win the conference again. So, ultimately, they've done their job so far this season, to a certain extent. But I look at this game as a bad sandwich spot. Sparty is coming off an emotional win at Purdue that allowed them to be playing for the title, and the big senior day game looms on the horizon against the hated Wolverines. Right smack-dab in the middle is a game v.s. a team they already beat by DD's on the road. A tough situational spot for MSU. Sure PSU won at the Breslin last year and that could be used as motivation for MSU, but this is an identical situation to MSU/Northwestern. NU won at the Breslin last season, and MSU smoked 'em in Evanston earlier this year, and then beat them by 9 at the Breslin a few weeks ago. Well, MSU won at PSU already this season, so I think the "revenge" factor is not really there.

MSU is 5-9 as a DD fav this season and they typically don't even do that well. Izzo has never cared about winning games by 28 points to impress people. Win the game and get ready for the next one. One thing I really like about Penn State is that they should be able to hang around on the glass. In the first meeting, MSU outrebounded them by 9, which actually isn't bad. But in last year's game at the Breslin, MSU outrebounded them by only 3, and if PSU can hang with 'em on the boards, they should definitely stay within the posted 13.

Good luck ya'll !!!!

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tmpeus78 says:

03/04/10 09:38AM

I lean under in this game. Thoughts?

D-Town says:

03/04/10 09:40AM

Good luck Bense.

bense197969 says:

03/04/10 09:45AM

IMO, it's never a bad play to take an under in a BIg Ten conference game. Gun-to-my-head, I play the UNDER, but I think this game is actually gonna be closer than people think, which can be scary when playing an UNDER.

BostonStrangler says:

03/04/10 09:46AM

i like it, GL

PurduePride2206 says:

03/04/10 11:11AM

you have switched me over

and yes that total was close, i was at the game and stoked they started putting in reserves with like 3 mins left which def. helped it go under!

BOL

tmpeus78 says:

03/04/10 11:16AM

Thanks, I'll prob stay away, but just wanted your thoughts! thanks

bense197969 says:

03/04/10 12:08PM

Thanks ya'll...

adding:

Richmond -3.5....Why not? Everybody else is.

Eastern Michigan -4.5....CMU just blew their load in the comeback win against WMU.

sparty444 says:

03/04/10 12:34PM

Sorry but this isn't a trap situation....MSU has to win this game or they lose the Big Ten title. Its that simple The only way PSU keeps it within the number is if they shoot a very high % from 3. If you look at MSU's losses you will notice that their opponents made lots of 3's. Other than Battle & Babbs PSU doesn't have much offensively. They often struggle to score in half-court sets. However Battle always has huge games against State...why? MSU lets him shoot it from NBA land and he can make that shot. If you doesn't tonight the rout is on.

The number appears to be spot on here...really don't recommend a play either way. But its certainly not a trap situation...if Vegas thought that it would be MSU -6 ...if anything I would say Vegas is looking for PSU action in this one. If anything i would lean under. PSU knows it can't run with State...and MSU has struggled with its outside shooting as of late. good luck either way.

kidmike89 says:

03/04/10 12:44PM

bol all. leaning under here myself as I normally do in big ten play. along with a few of you i sweated out the final three in the purdue game last night, so may stay away from total. Like penn st but may have to stay away all together. Better plays out there tonight

bense197969 says:

03/04/10 12:57PM

Considering you've disagreed with everything I've said all season, I would've expected nothing less than that from you again. Yes it is a trap. This is the remaning game that no Sparty fans are worried about. The win against Purdue was a big one. This game is important because yes, they need to win it for the conference title. But it is on a smaller/lesser level compared to the Michigan game. The Michigan game is the rivalry/senior day game, what is the Penn State game? The game in between. If you think Vegas would've ever even of dreamed of opening this line at -6, you've lost what little credibility I thought you had.

bense197969 says:

03/04/10 01:03PM

FYI....In MSU's losses, they've given up 47 3-pointers combined. That's a little over 6 a game. Is that a lot to you?

teezeepicks says:

03/04/10 01:21PM

I agree with you 100% that this team is a big time threat to make another run

I'm on PSU as well.. feels like NW +13 (?) earlier in the season, maybe stronger

bense197969 says:

03/04/10 01:23PM

sparty444 says:

03/04/10 01:36PM

All-season? lol I have posted in 3 threads of yours prior to this one. Indiana-Purdue and Oakland. And I was correct on all 3...meaning you were in-correct.

MSU Big Ten opponents are 30/75 in conference losses. So I put that at 7.5 3's per loss.

Like i said before...this line is right on the money...I had it pegged at -10...so when I see -13 I take it they want money on PSU. But acting like I know nothing is about as laughable as it comes.

teezeepicks says:

03/04/10 11:10PM

Glad MSU pulled out the win as well

It's time to crush Michigan and hang another BT Championship banner

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User:	bense197969
Joined:	November 2005
Location:	Michigan
Team:	Michigan St Spartans
Occupation:	Accounting/Finance

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Penn State v.s. Sparty.....

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