BigIron picks, Week 5

Well, back to a shitty week. I think I'm over thinking this year... I fall into that trap every so often. Kind of going "reverse-reverse" psychology... and it's not really working.  For example, going against a Thursday night home dog because "everybody knows about it now" (which didn't matter), or going against Vandy on the road because most people would have been expecting them to bounce back and win easily (which they did).

I'll be trying to keep that in mind this week... don't overthink, just understand the situation. 

Last week:  1-5, -4.1 units 
YTD: 9-16, -9.85 units

Fade away! 

I'll be wrapping up last week's 2H system thread next, but wanted to go ahead and get this week's games done first.

This week's SEC games & line guesses:
Alabama -21 @ Kentucky - How Kentucky can look so promising and then completely shit the bed is beyond me... even today, I don't think the Gators are 40 points better than the Cats, and I don't think Alabama is 21 points better than them, either (more like 17).  After Alabama just handed out a beatdown and UK just suffered one, though, the line will be at least this, if not more.
LSU -4 @ Georgia - LSU has a more experienced offense and a defense that has performed far better to date this year... but this line will still be close.  Georgia has given up 3 turnovers on offense in every game this year, and all of them have been on the Georgia side of the ... [More]