bigvern1013's Blog

Posted Tuesday, December 16, 2014 10:31 AM

WTI Crude (CL) Futures Market, and What is Happening. BS Debunked

As I type this, the WTI front month crude oil futures on the CME Globex is trading at 54.25$ per contract. Symbol is CL, active month currently trading is January:  CL 01-15.

Pretty much the whole world has watched as crude has sold off from the 100$ level to what is now a price threatening 50$.  The transfer of wealth over this period has been monumental. if not historical. Moreover, the selloff represents a major shift in the economic power structure of the world, and it has only taken 6 months.

Here is the story that the media is floating as being the reasons for the selloff:

I am an active futures trader, and everyday I trade Crude oil, gold, natural gas, and the mini s&p.  From my vantage point, nearly every reason outlined in the story concerning the pricing of crude oil is complete BS.

Point/Counterpoint on the topic, reasons for the decline in crude oil value from the article:

1)  "A drop off in Global demand".  There have been no "unexpected" fluctuations in global demand for crude oil. It is true that China has been the horse pulling the wagon as far as demand goes for sometime now; and yes they are facing some tough economic times as their real estate bubble is thought to be popping, and is "expected" to be several times worse that the US real estate market failure ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, August 20, 2013 12:37 PM

Week one "Juicy" FCS/FBS matchups&picks (1A and 1AA to the oldtimer)

Some of the most entertaining football is when the 1A "bigboys" have to play the 1AA squads.....and yes the dirty little secret is this: other than the top 10 teams in 1A, there just isn't that much separation anymore between 11-40 when in comparison with the Top 10 teams in 1AA.

One of my favorite things to do is watch a headcoach sweat when his supposed "tune-up game" turns into a potential reason for termination..........

Lets see if we can spot a few week one 1A/1AA matchups that can cause a few ulcers.........lines are taken from 5dimes:

1)  North Dakota State (+14) @ K-State   The back to back national champs of 1AA go to K-state for a Friday night matchup.  NDSU has a bunch of guys back, and are quickly becoming one of the most dominate squads in recent memory.......KSU has lost a huge amount of talent from last more Optimus Klein, no more solid defense. This game boils down to Snyder's JC recruiting class vs a 1AA juggernaut.    I am going with the Bizon here.......NDSU +14

2) Old Dominion (+13) @ East Carolina    ODU throws the ball all over the field......and then they throw it some more.  East Carolina has a slew of guys back 9/9 on each side of the ball.  I actually watched Georgia Southern come back from 21 down to beat ODU in the round of 8 last season........the defense is far from impressive for ODU, and if that no-huddle passing game bogs down, ... [More]

Posted Friday, August 09, 2013 12:05 AM

Oklahoma State Cowboys over 9 wins -130

Man, I like this one a lot.  Obviously, QB play is paramount to the Cowboys having success, but with 2 guys that are capable in Clint Chelf and JW Walsh, that looks to be taken care of......even though I would have liked Wes Lunt at the trigger instead of transferring out.

Could this be the year that OSU puts a top-flight defense on the field?  Tough to put up any eye -popping D numbers in the Big 12, but this unit should be able to average in the 24-28ppg allowed range....and that is enough to get them 10 wins.

Here is what I got on the Pokes' season:

1) Miss State      not sure they cover the 12.5, and Reliant stadium can play a little slow, but should post 35 on MSU.W

2) @UTSA         I like Larry Coker, and UTSA is bowl capable, but this is apples and oranges. Pokes' roll.  W

3) Lamar            this game shouldn't be played. 70+ W

4)  BYE

5) @West Virginia    The Mountaineers will miss Geno, and Clint Trickett doesn't fit the bill.  W

6) Kansas St.           Tough to like KSU to do much this year, especially in Stillwater with a rebuilt D.  DD Win.  W

7) BYE

8) TCU           I like TCU to make some noise ... [More]

Posted Friday, May 10, 2013 12:12 PM

Tebow the Free Agent.

I think it is safe to say that there is a bit of collusion going on here.......looks to me like the Corporation's stance on letting Tebow play in the NFL is to run him to Canada or the Arena League.

It is very hard for me to believe that there is no one out there that will give a proven winner a, he is not the prettiest passer.....but the guy wins games, and brings a compete level that few QB's in the league do.

Seriously, can you remember a QB that has had a winning record in his first year as a starter and won a playoff game, that has been chucked to the gutter by everyone in the "League". 

It appears that no one really cares about winning any longer. Is success defined by how your team looks, as opposed to how it preforms?  Nothing better than getting the guy that can throw the ball 60 yds from his knee at the combine, but is a clusterf***k when the chips are down.  The sad part is that Jamarcus Russell has gotten more positive press for his comeback effort over the last month than Tebow has for his charity work during the same period.  Pretty telling on whom is writing the sports columns these days.

If a team is all set at QB then do not even consider Tebow...but the following squads have no excuse, other than they are scared of the NFL/ESPN media machine:  Bills, Dolphins, Cleveland, Jax, Tennessee, KC, Oakland, Eagles, Vikings, Tampa, Arizona. 

These teams stink, and usually are... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 09, 2012 12:54 PM

Week 2 Studs and Duds.........

Teams that were impressive in my eyes:

1) Arizona    RichRod has a keeper in his QB Scott..that guy can run and throw...good stable of RB's, Arizona is dangerous.

2) LSU         I get it...everyone out there is saying no shit...but they hammered a pretty good offensive team in UW.  The LSU offense is much better than last year with the new QB.

3) Alabama     Another no shit call. But they are good.  Real good.

4) Oklahoma State      Even though they got beaten handily @ Zona, Wes Lunt QB can play for OSU.  Yeah, there were some turnovers, but OSU is fast and physical, and as early as next season Lunt will have them in the top 5.

5)North Dakota State        NDSU at Colorado State yesterday made me a nice wad of cash.  This is an FCS team that can compete at the FBS level.  The NCAA should put them in a bowl game.  Colorado St scored on their first possession...and they didn't score again...NDSU 22-7, and it could have been worse.

6) Georgia       Nice win for Georgia......lots left to prove.
7)  Kansas State  They played great...Collin Klien takes a ton of hits, but the K-State defense was nasty to the Canes....I was impressed, that was a dominant performance.

Teams that Disappointed:

1) Arkansas   &nbs... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 05, 2012 02:17 AM

Final Opinion on Penn State

First of all, QB Tettleton for Ohio lit up PSU.......lights out on 3rd down in the second half.  Pretty impressive.

Now for the main point of this post. 

I grow weary of the "lynch Penn State" attitude.  Sandusky's  crimes were as bad as it gets, and the coverup was bad as well.....the guilty parties are behind bars, the conspirators of the coverup are being investigated, and the figurehead of the school is dead.

The hard truth concerning  this matter is as follows: the crimes committed by Sandusky were criminal matters and not matters that the NCAA should have concerned themselves with at all.   The individuals involved with the coverup were all terminated, Sandusky is in prison, and Paterno is dead.  The need for the NCAA to pile on and get their pound of flesh is irrelevant.

 Personally, I don't understand how further sanctions concerning the football program were warranted.  Is the loss of scholarships and bowl games really appropriate?  Did ESPN not put Penn State on national TV and sell advertising space last Saturday? what exactly were the punishment and sanctions for???

I cannot understand how punishing the current players and fans with sanctions has anything to do with combating child just seems like a petty attempt at making the NCAA look like "do gooders" to the American public. 

If the NCAA would have dished ou... [More]

Posted Sunday, August 19, 2012 08:35 PM

Crude Oil Forcast Aug 20-25

The following synthesis is how I see the position trading strategies for crude oil futures unfolding for the week of Aug 20-25 2012.  It is rather long, but to anyone whom is interested in  or actively trades  crude oil futures, it may be a worthwhile read......

We have seen a substantial rally from the light sweet crude oil futures (symbol CL) over the passed week, Aug 13-17.

I posted a shorting play a week ago Friday for a quick 100 tick pop to the downside.  It was a successful strategy, but a long term downtrend was not in the cards, and we have seen a reversal,  reflecting an overall bullish sentiment from futures players.

As of now, there are 2 key resistance levels to the upside that could bring us into a consolidation pattern for the next week. Both are moving average #'s, both are fairly rare in coming into play, and even rarer in corresponding within a 1$ range (100 ticks).

1)  The Moving Average that I use on the Monthly Chart for (CL) is at 96.87 (upside resistance)

2) The Moving Average from the Weekly Chart for (CL)  is at 96.20 (upside resistance)

As of right now we are seeing a volume split of 3-1 for the October contract to September......this is interesting because the traders have been very reluctant to roll from Sept to Oct. I expected the October contract to be in full control by the middle of last week, but that has not happened.

So, we are currently showing the price for... [More]

Posted Monday, March 19, 2012 05:28 PM

I Gotta hand it to the Broncos

The only thing better than having jesus at QB is having God himself under center.

The signing of Peyton Manning may be the most expensive public relations move of all time....the only QB on the planet that the Broncos fans would have accepted over Tim Tebow is Peyton Manning.  This move shows just how uneasy Elway was with Tebow, yet illustrates his respect for Tebow nation.....he could have made a bid for Matt Flynn (this off season's QB du'jour),  but the need to save face was overwhelming...enter Peyton Manning, the one and only correct answer for the situation.

Now the Broncos can claim that Tebow is being tutored by Peyton for the "future" in order to keep his fanbase happy. Do not kid yourself, if Denver recieves a decent trade proposal involving moving Tim then they will move his ass fast, probably for a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round will be later on in training camp this season, after most loyal Denver fans have forgotten his wins from last season and are focussed on the season at hand....and have been watching a never ending loop of Peyton Manning highlights on ESPN for 6 months straight.

Two points:

1) Peyton will have to play a considerable number of games outdoors late in the season in variable weather conditions. This is new for him.

2)  The offense is not geared to air it out.  The wide recievers are below anything he has thrown to in at least 8 years, and that is a run blocking offensive line, th... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 14, 2012 11:11 AM

The cold hard truth about being a Professional Gambler/Speculator

Some of you out there have read a few of my posts, most of which are emotionally driven bullshit (usually stemming from my unabashed hatred for the mainstream sporting media) but largely I remain an anonymous figure here at covers.  I like it that way, and it is fun to come on and vent from time to time.  I have read at least a dozen threads over the years on guys wanting to know if it is possible to make a living betting on sports. Answers to this question usually range from "no...gambling is a waste of time and for suckers" all the way to sailing around the caribbean on a motoryaght with supermodels.  The following is my two cents, and yes it is the correct answer to the question "is it possible to make a living being a professional gambler?"

Here is my background: 32 years old, medium size construction speculator, commodities trader, sports handicapper.  The construction ate shit in 2008, I still trade commodities and bet college football.  The trading has been ok for  a few years, the betting was below average last season.

I will focus the discussion to sports gambling (which is very similiar to commodities trading regarding money management principles, but very different in many other aspects of function...thus we will save the trading tallk for the investment forum.). 

The following components are absolutely necessary in order to make a living betting on sports:

1)&... [More]

Posted Sunday, January 15, 2012 12:28 PM

Final Word on Tebow

I was one of those whom has backed Tebow since he began to win in the NFL. From a football standpoint, it is astounding how polarizing this guy is....everyone has a strong opinion on Tim Tebow.

It is absolutely amazing just how personal the criticism towards Tebow gets. It seems that the people whom do not like Tebow genuinely hate him. They are offended by his belief system and the way that he plays the game....and more importantly, they hate what he stands for.

On the other hand, Tebow supporters see him as the answer, and back him no matter how dismal the preformance. They are blind to many truths, and at times go out of their way to justify poor play.

Facts are facts though....when he took over, Denver was 1-5. For the Broncos to finish 8-8 is a huge accomplishment, and he was a large part of that. Not to mention a playoff win for Tebow.....something a conventional QB like Matt Ryan has not been able to muster.

What pisses me off is the relentless bullshit arguement that Tebow will never become a true "NFL" quarterback. News flash: Tim Tebow already is an NFL qb. The media calls him "unconventional" at best and downright "incompetent" at worst.

Who is to say just how good Tebow can be? The experts? The same group that touted the likes of Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, Ryan Leaf, Kyle Boller, Kordell Stewart and Akili Smith as having an upside as being amazing? The same experts that have tried to convince america for 10 years th... [More]

Posted Monday, January 09, 2012 02:16 PM

Pats/Broncos II Writeup

Looking forward to this one.  Line went up 5 minutes after the Broncos win over the Steelers at 14....came down to 13.5 immediately, although some smaller shops are hanging up 15's right now to generate some early business.

New England defense is brutal, but that offense is smokin' hot and they know just how to attack the Broncos D.  It is a definite possibility that Denver could get run out of Foxboro.... I have much respect for Tom Brady and Belichek, but............

Offense alone doesn't win tough playoff games. Period.  You have to have some guts on D, and New England is suspect everwhere but at DT. NE has a history of getting pushed around by tough teams in the playoffs that are not flashy (see Jets and Baltimore).

If Denver D makes some stops and force 3's in the redzone, they will have a chance to win this bitch outright.  They will get in the 17-24 pt range out of their offense, and that could be enough to win if the following comes to fruition:

1) Bad weather

2) Relaxed Pass interference officiating

3)  Denver Defense adjusts to underneath drag routes and plays physical with the TE's.  Job #1 on D has to be to hit Gronkowski and Hernandez in the mouth every play.

4) Denver needs to have a 2 possession lead midway through the 3rd to have a legit shot at the upset.

5) Denver must play clean...0 costly turnovers

I must say that I am intrigue... [More]


User: bigvern1013
Joined: October 2006
Location: Montana
Team: Air Force Falcons
Occupation: Trade

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