Just crunched some numbers...been working on a first Q system. Word of warning went 0-2 last night (although the knicks shot over 70% for that first Q to kill the under).
System Record: 0-2
Just a quick work on this system and how it works seeing as no one ever wants to tell people how they have created a system on covers.
It takes into account:
1. Last 3 first Quarters / points for and against
2. Situation ie. b2b/1 day rest etc and the points for/points against for the first Q
3. Last 5 road/home (depending if at home/road) points for/points against
I use the standard deviations and means to figure out my plays if any. If there is a SD of over 5 I automatically throw out any plays on totals because there is too much variance in the results.
Okay as for OKC @ SAC
Using the system we come up with
OKC Points for: 24.47 Points Against: 27.2
SAN Points for: 22.78 Points Against: 19.91
OKC is 1-4 in its last 5 B2Bs
SAN is 3-1-1 in its last 5 1 day rest games
The total is set at 49 here. And these two team's are averaging ~47 for the first Q using my criteria. However, the Spurs are the better team here and WILL control the pace of play, where their margins of victory are averaging roughly 2 points a quarter. As well their last 5 quarters at home are averaging a total of 43. The last 3 played head to head against these two teams average 48 points per first quarter with too much variance in teh results. Therefore we throwout the play on the under here. However, with OKC getting 4.5 points in what should be a close and low scoring total I expect for OKC to cover here. If you look at a lot of OKC's games they play half decent for the first Q and fall a part later.
the Play: OKC +4.5 (FQ) +105
let's Cash this one!