MLB 4:00pm - Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics: Seattle -108

Analysis:

Sometimes when you shop around you get a bargain and we have a HUGE bargain price here to back an outstanding young pitcher in Seattle's Felix Hernandez at basically even money against a virtual unknown rookie for Oakland in Josh Outman. This is one of the biggest pitching mismatches of the early season that I have seen so far particularly when you think about the fact the price tag for King Felix in this game is just as a small favourite and incredibly this game actually opened with Seattle at even money. The Mariners are quickly putting last season's disaster behind them and have started 2009 off very well. Hernandez was simply phenomenal in his first start against Minnesota as he gave up just one run in eight innings en route to a 6-1 Seattle win. Minnesota simply couldn't hit him and that is going to prove to be once again challenging for a very mediocre Athletics offense. King Felix is 3-1 in his L4 starts against Oakland and the one pitcher that bested him in that lone loss was Joe Blanton who is no longer with the A's. Meanwhile, Josh Outman is in his rookie season with Oakland and is making his first ever start in the majors today and what a tough matchup for him in his very first outing. Outman did have a couple bullpen stints with the Athletics in 2008 and didn't have overly impressive numbers. He gave up 14 runs in 25 innings pitched last year with Oakland and this is just a very rough welcoming to him as a Major League starter going up against a young phenom with the ability to just dominate opposing hitters in Felix Hernandez.

Baseball is such a different animal to bet from other sports and a major part of my baseball handicapping tactics are combining matchup edges mostly regarding pitching, situational edges and tremendous money line value. We have all three of those things in this game in Seattle's favour as we are getting a bargain price with the vastly superior pitcher at a price we likely will not see for the rest of the season with a pitcher like Felix Hernandez who many people think could be a Cy Young winner somewhere down the road. The Mariners do not have the strongest bullpen but that is negated by the fact that Felix Hernandez typically goes deep into ballgames mostly pitching all the way up to either the 7th or 8th inning in the majority of his starts. Seattle should be able to get their share of runs off Outman as they are averaging over 4 runs per game so far this season while Hernandez will take care of the rest.

Bonus Play: An additional way to take advantage of this game would be a small play with Seattle pk -113 (5 inning RL) as the Mariners should be able to obtain the lead by the midway point of the game with the strong pitching from Hernandez to back them up.

Good Luck.