Bodio's NHL Thur 10/06

I'll reiterate again that I don't handicap NHL. I can't even name 5 players in the league. I do handicap odds movement and situations. Basically, this hockey betting system is predicated on the fact that there is just not that many people wagering on this sport. Therefore, major 'odds' moves are more so influenced by the 'sharps' than some of the more popular sports like football, basketball, and baseball. Hopefully the system shows the profit again this year.

I'm going to play 1/3 of my normal bet amount on these wagers.
Let's get to it:

2011 NHL

#1: Philadelphia Flyers +120

Good luck!

=========================================
Updated records:

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned" ... [More]

Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs)

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
6 - 2 @ 75% for +4.0 Units

Thur 10/06

#1: Detroit Tigers (1st 5 innings) +150

Game 1.5 (get it?) rematch here between Fister and Nova. The key here is to determine who is a better pitcher. Take a look at what Fister has done over his last 8 games of the regular season: 56 innings of work, 25 hits, 4 ER’s, and 52 K’s to 4 BB’s. Truly incredible. Sure he didn’t face the ‘best’ offenses in the league but those numbers are still spectacular. His xFIP in the month of September was a slick 2.19 with 9.0 K/9 and 0.79 BB/9 for an 11.33 K/BB ratio. On the other hand, Nova had his worst month in September since May, with a 4.55 xFIP and a measly 1.42 K/BB ratio.

Let’s also compare each pitcher in terms of how they did against the top-5 offenses in the American League this year (Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Royals):

Fister:

KC: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 5 ER
DET: 6.1 inn / 5 hits / 2 ER
BOS: 5.2 inn / 5 hits / 0 ER
DET: 8.0 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 7.2 inn / 6 hits / 4 ER
NYY: 7.0 inn / 7 hits / 3 ER
TEX: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 2 ER
KC: 7.2 inn / 4 hits / 1 ER

Total: 56.1 inn / 50 hits / 21 ER for a 3.36 ERA. Not too bad especially considering the offensive output of the lineups he faced.

Nova:

BOS: 4.1 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 4.1 inn / 4 hits / 5 ER
TEX: 7.1 ... [More]

Bodio's MLB Tue 10/04 (Playoffs)

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
3 - 2 @ 60% for +.98 Units

Tue 10/04

#1: Texas Rangers +102

I've faded Hellickson in his last start and even though he won that one, I promised myself that I'm going right back to fading him next time he's on the mound. Well, that time is today. Speaking of that 'last time', it was a game against the Yankees which Tampa won 5-3 when they came back from a 3-2 deficit late in the game. Looking at that game, Hellickson gave up 6 hits in 6 innings of work with 1 HR, 5 walks, and only 1 K. Surprisingly he only allowed 3 ER's. He got out of 2 bases-loaded situations, one of which was a triple play. He also had a couple of double-plays that ended an inning and minimized some 'damage' in the other (1 run scored when Yankees had men on 1st and 3rd with zero outs). Frankly, Hellickson got very LUCKY. It's one thing to have dynamic stuff to be able to 'get out of jams' (e.g. Verlander, Halladay) and it's another one having luck on your side. Hellickson has a measly 1.63 K/BB, 4.44 FIP (#165 in the league) and 4.72 xFIP (#206 in the league). At the same time he has a terrible 35% GB-rate. With all these factors how in the world is his ERA below 3? Well, the 'unfamiliarity' angle is one factor, as he was a rookie this year, facing teams for the first time. But a better explanation is his .223 BABIP (13th lowest out... [More]

Bodio's MLB Mon 10/03 (Playoffs)

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units

Mon 10/03

#1: Texas Rangers +118

I like the way Colby Lewis has pitched lately. For the month of September his xFIP is 3.59, lowest of any months this year with a 3.63 K/BB ratio. In his last 2 starts against the Rays he's allowed 6 hits and 0 ER's in 13 innings of work. Against a Rays lineup which is average against 'right-handed' pitchers, there is no reason not to think that Lewis can't be sharp again in this outing. Opposite Lewis is Price, who has been struggling a bit lately. His xFIP of 3.74 in September is still pretty solid but his 2.13 K/BB ratio is the lowest this year and 4.28 BB/9 is pretty troubling. In Price's last 2 starts he's allowed 11 runs (7 ER's but the rest were due to HIS errors) on 10 hits with 3 HR's. He'll be facing a Rangers team against which he is 0-5 in his career with a 5.48 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Rangers are the 3rd best offensive team against lefties and I see them having success against Price tonight. Rangers are the play.

#2: Detroit Tigers -125

In the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home. Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important? In my opi... [More]

Bodio's NFL -- Week 4

Bodio's MLB Sat 10/01 (Playoffs)

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
0 - 1 @ 0% for -1.20 Units

Sat 10/01

#1: UNDER 7 ARZ/MIL +100
#2: Tampa Bay Rays +112

Good luck!





Updated records:

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned" ... [More]

Bodio's MLB Fri 09/30 (Playoffs)

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
0 - 0 @ 0% for +0.0 Units

Fri 09/30

#1: UNDER 8.5 TBR/TEX -120
#2: New York Yankees -122

Good luck!





Updated records:

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390
_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned" ... [More]

Bodio's MLB Wed 09/28

2011 MLB Record:
197 - 155 @ 56% for +22.83 Units




Wed 09/28

#1: UNDER 8.5 TOR/CHW -115
Humber is very good against lefties with a 3.60 xFIP and 3.29 K/BB. Jays' lineup has 6 lefties in there. Morrow is a quality pitcher who's allowed 6 hits and 0 ER's in his last 2 starts, 15 innings. Neither one of these 2 teams has a double digit hit game in their last 6 averaging a combined total of 5.5 runs. Cool, rainy weather in Chicago today and I expect another low-scoring contest.

#2: Texas Rangers -144
Tigers own a tie-breaker so Rangers don't want to lose this game as they currently have a 1-game lead for the #2 seed in the AL. I expect them to have their regular lineup in this one as they'll be facing a rookie who's allowed 8 ER's and 3 HR's in his first 9 innings of MLB work. Richards pulled his groin the first time he tried to face Texas this year...he won't be so lucky today.

More plays to come... Waiting for lineups, etc.

Good luck fellas.
_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575
<... [More]

Bodio's MLB Tue 09/27

2011 MLB Record:
197 - 153 @ 56% for +25.08 Units




Tue 09/27

#1: Toronto Blue Jays +121

White Sox have never seen Alvarez before and the kid has great stuff. Toronto is the 5th best hitting team against Buehrle, who's been struggling lately, and is on the down-slope of his career. I could say that I'm backing a better starter and a better offense in this one. But honestly, the fact that Ozzie won't be on the ChiSox sidelines for the first time in the last 8 years could be the greatest factor here. Baseball is a mental game, and it will be very 'different' for these White Sox players in their first game without their 'old' skipper.

====================================

Action Parlay:
Giants ML / Barcelona ML (SPL) -130 (combined odds)

Good luck!
_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned" ... [More]

Bodio's NFL - week 3 MNF

2011-2012 NFL Record:
5 - 11 @ 20% for -7.1 Units




Week 3

#7: Washington Redskins +3.5

The 'Skins have had much success covering the spread in this rivalry lately. Tonight, I expect them to do the same if not win this one outright. Dallas is banged up with Romo, Jones, and Austin having serious injuries. Even though Romo and Jones will play, the loss of Austin really hurts, as he's Dallas' best offensive weapon. Dez Bryant will play in this one but he's also at less than 100%. Felix Jones is one hard hit away from leaving the game and even when healthy he's been struggling to run the ball. I expect Dallas to rely on the pass to the move the ball effectively (as they've done in the first 2 games) but injuries to their O-line (Costa, their center is playing with an injured knee, and Nagy, a 7th round draft pick this year, missed last week with an injury) will make Romo susceptible to pressure as Washington has 7 sacks through 2 games. With all these things considered, I don't see a very aggressive game-plan for Dallas to start out the game. They'll try to run the ball more in the first half but 'Skins' D is getting Landry back for this one, and I expect him to greatly improve their run-D going forward. Speaking of 'getting a player back on D', Josh Wilson is listed as probable and will start after getting banged up against 'Zona. He's a solid corner and should keep Dallas' secondar... [More]

Bodio's MLB Mon 09/26

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580

Bodio's NFL -- Week 3

2011-2012 NFL Record:
2 - 8 @ 20% for -6.8 Units




Week 3

#1: Tennessee Titans -7

Denver is missing their 2 best defenders in Dumervill and Bailey. I expect Tennessee to finally get Chris Johnson going and use their 'new-found' passing game to keep Denver off-balance all day. If the Broncos gave up over 300 yards to a rookie at home last week, what will happen when they face a veteran on the road today? On the other side, the Broncos will have trouble moving the ball against a very solid Tennessee defense. Denver has played 2 close games at home to start the season but they will be very outclassed in this one here. Titans also have the 'revenge' angle in their favor after losing to Denver on the road last season. Final Score: 27-13

#2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1

Big game here for both squads. I know that the Bucs struggle to stop the run and the Falcons have a 'bulldozer' in Turner, but what do you think the game-plan will be this week for Tampa Bay? Atlanta's passing game is not as 'great' as some think and I see Talib doing an adequate job on Roddy White. Atlanta is in the bottom quarter of the league in YPA and if they fall behind, it might be tough for them to come back on the road here. Tampa has played very well in the 2nd half of games this year. They moved the ball against both Detroit and Minnesota, and I see them putting it all together in this one. Atlanta... [More]

Bodio's MLB Sat 09/24

2011 MLB Record:
194 - 151 @ 56% for +24.35 Units




Sat 09/24

#1: Seattle Mariners -105

Ogando is a very mediocre pitcher against lefties (xFIP of 4.21). Seattle has 7 left-handers in the lineup today. Rangers are missing most of their 'key' bats in theirs. King Felix can't go 0-4 against the Rangers this year can he?

Good luck
Sorry fellas...no time for a detailed writeup and I don't even have time to post the breakdowns.  Busy day!
_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned" ... [More]

Bodio's NCAAF - Week 4

Bodio's MLB Fri 09/23

2011 MLB Record:
192 - 151 @ 56% for +22.35 Units




Fri 09/23

#1: UNDER 7.5 TOR/TBR -115

My model has this one at 6.1 total runs and 8 would be needed to lose this one. Price is in a very good form right now, and he's coming off a game where he only threw 78 pitched due to getting hit by a line-drive in the chest. He should be very 'fresh' in this one. One thing about Price is that he is lethal against lefties. His 3.14 xFIP against left-handers is one of the best in the league (it's 3.29 against righties which is also spectacular but his overal 3.91 against right-handers in his career is average). Well, Blue Jays have a number of left-handers in their lineup: Thames, Lind, Johnson, Rasmus, Loewen, Cooper. I expect at least 5 of these players to start today. This is in part a reason why Price is 9-1 with a 1.99 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP against the Jays in his career. It also helps that the Jays are averaging only 3.4 rpg in their last 5, getting double-digits in hits only once in that span. Opposite Price is Morrow. He's a bit of a 'wild-card' as he is hit-or-miss. I like the fact that he's coming off a very dominant performance against the Yankees in his last start, holding New York to only 4 hits and 0 ER's in 8 innings of work. That was definitely a gem! He's been a bit inconsistent against the Rays this year but overall has a 2.86 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them. Morrow is on the road for this one where his ERA is 3 runs lower than at hom... [More]

Bodio's MLB Thur 09/22

2011 MLB Record:
190 - 150 @ 56% for +20.55 Units




Thur 09/22

#1: New York Mets +185

We have one team that is fighting for the playoffs and another one that knows their season is over. But this is baseball, and motivation is not really going to make someone perform better than normal. It's no like Albert Pujols is going to swing his bat harder or Jose Reyes is going to run slower. If you cap based on motivation in baseball that you probably lost a lot of $ in that Red Sox / Orioles game last night. Both of these teams are very similar in terms of hitting, fielding, and bullpen. The big difference is that we have a better overall starting pitcher in Capuano (according to both advanced and standard stats actually). This game is closer to 50/50, and according to my model has New York winning this one 52% of the time. Current odds of -200 or so have St Louis winning this game 67% and New York 33%. Something is very 'off' here.

#2: San Francisco Giants -105

BumG has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the last month or so (him and Vazquez for the Marlins). I backed him in his last start against Kuroda a couple of weeks ago and I see no reason not to do so again in this spot. Sandoval should be back in the lineup for San Fran, who have a bunch of left-handed options available to them. Kuroda has a 4.09 xFIP against lefties and I expect him to get 'hit' again by the Giants tonight.

=============================... [More]

Bodio's MLB Wed 09/21

2011 MLB Record:
189 - 148 @ 56% for +22.28 Units




Wed 09/21

#1: OVER 8 HOU/CIN -120

My model has this one at 9.8 total runs and 7 would be needed for this wager to lose. Reds are the 4th best hitting team against lefties this year so I expect them to have success off Wandy who has been giving up 3/4 ER's in his last 5 starts. Arroyo has allowed 10 HR's in his last 4 starts and 44 on the season. Even the Houston bats should have some success off him. Arroyo is coming off a 114 pitch outing and I expect him to give up some runs in this one as well. Both BP's are below average.

#2: Chicago Cubs +100

This is Cubs' last HOME game of the season. Sure the season was a total disaster but you have to believe that they'll have their best lineup on the field in this one with their best pitcher on the mound. Brewers don't have much to play for, so they might rest a starter or two. Either way, I expect the Cubs to field a strong lineup in order to win their last home game of the season. Garza is a much better pitcher than Wolf according to advanced stats and Chicago hits lefties pretty well. Definitely some 'value' with the home team here.

This is it for the early games. I'm capping late games right now and will most likely have a play or two there as well.
Back in a bit!

Good luck!
_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,13... [More]

Bodio's MLB Tue 09/20

2011 MLB Record:
187 - 147 @ 56% for +21.35 Units




Tue 09/20

#1: Florida Marlins -107

A couple of things about this game that warrant a play on Florida. First of all, Marlins have seen Delgado 6 days ago so the 'unfamiliarity' factor is gone. They kid has averaged 5.0 innings per start in his 5 MLB starts and I don't expect him going past 5 innings today. This brings us to "second of all", which is the fact that Atlanta's bullpen has been pretty used up lately. Kimbrel has appeared in 3 straight (44 pitches), O'Flaherty in 2 straight (26 pitches) and Venters in 2 straight (34 pitches). Atlanta's BP won't be as strong today which is another benefit for Florida. Finally, Sanchez has been very solid lately allowing 2 ER's and 11 hits in his last 3 starts, spanning 21 innings. He has 23 K's and only 7 BB's in that span. I expect him to have another solid outing against an Atlanta offense which scored more than 3 runs only 3 out of the last 9 games.

#2: Milwaukee Brewers -142

I know Marcum is coming off 2 poor outings, but that was against Philly and Colorado, both teams with some solid left-handed bats in their lineups. Cubs are a righty-dominated lineup. Why is this important? Well, Marcum has a 4.14 xFIP and 2.07 K/BB against left-handers this year. He is much more lethal against righties with a 3.64 xFIP and 3.63 K/BB. That's a big difference. Top-3 bullpen, t... [More]

Bodio's NFL -- Week 2

2011-2012 NFL Record:
2 - 4 @ 33% for -2.4 Units




Week 2

#1: Miami Dolphins +3

Look, I know Miami is like 1-9 at home in their last 10 games (not confirmed) and they're coming off another home loss in week 1, but what have the Texans really done to deserve to be road favorites? This is a team that went 2-6 on the road last year, losing their last 6 away from home. Out of the 2 wins, one was a 3 point OT victory in Washington and the other one a TD win @ Oakland. The fact that Houston beat up on "Manning-less" colts who were lead by a 70-year old quarterback is not enough to instill them as 3-point favorites here. At the same time everyone looks at the final result of the NE/MIA game on Monday, but fails to look beyond just the final tally. Miami was in that game the whole time! We forget that Miami had a first-and-goal from the 1 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, and down 21-14. They of course failed to convert (how often do you see an NFL team not getting a TD when they have a 1st-and-goal from the 1???) and settled for a FG. Then down 31-17 in the 4th, again Miami failed to convert when they had a 1st and goal from the 10 this time. It of course led to a long 99-yard TD for Welker on the next play, but the Dolphins didn't quit, drove the field, scored another TD, and then had another strong drive to end the game as time expired and they ended up at NE 17. I don't want to ... [More]

Bodio's MLB Thur 09/15

Bodio's MLB Wed 09/14

I know there are some early games so pasting the breakdowns now.  I'm still capping the games..

Final plays posted in a bit.

Bodio's MLB Tue 09/13

2011 MLB Record:
184 - 144 @ 56% for +21.57 Units




Tue 09/13

#1: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 RL -110
I haven't backed Greinke in awhile but this is a good spot. Rockies have Esmil Rogers on the mound who's been a disaster this year. Tulo is out for Colorado with a number of other players questionable and day-to-day. I expect Greinke to be sharp as Milwaukee should win this one comfortably.

#2: Los Angeles Angels -105
Williams has the 5th best xFIP in the league and has never faced the A's before. Moscoso's xFIP is ranked #228 out of 250 starting pitchers. He's already faced LAA once, and is coming off a 129 pitch outing. I know Oakland is 6-1 against the Angels this year, but these kinds of things should regress back to 50%. I really have no idea why these odds are so 'short' as I would expect LAA to be a bigger favorite. This is my favorite play today.

#3: Arizona Diamondbacks -130
I'm going to ride the Ian Kennedy streak here as he's been unhittable. At the same time I see no reason NOT to continue fading Billigsley. His xFIP went from 3.5 in APR+MAY to 4.0 in JUL to 4.60 in AUG (5.66 in Sept but only 1 start). He's allowed 24 hits in the last 12 innings of work with 10K's to 8 BB's. Just a huge discrepancy in the 'current' quality of these 2 starters. I like the D-Backs to get a comfortable win here.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,60... [More]

Bodio's MLB Mon 09/12

2011 MLB Record:
184 - 143 @ 56% for +22.62 Units




Mon 09/12

#1: UNDER 8 FLA/ATL -105

I like the way both of these pitchers are playing right now. Beachy had a 2.19 xFIP in August and 7.40 K/BB. Volstad has improved every month going from 4.69 xFIP in April to 3.42 in July to 2.70 in August. His 3.29 K/BB ratio in August was highest of the year. Atlanta is averaging 3.125 rpg in their last 8, while Florida will most likely be missing Stanton (Morrison is questionable) again tonight. My model has 6.9 total runs in this one and it would take 9 for this wager to lose.

Good luck!
_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

-----------------------------------
TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580




"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
... [More]

Bodio's MLB Sun 09/11

Bodio's NFL 2011 -- Week 1

2011-2012 NFL Record:
0 - 1 @ 0% for -1.1 Units




Week 1

#1: Pittsburgh Steelers +1

Well, I picked the Steelers to win the SuperBowl this year and this game will provide me with an opportunity to back them for the first time this season. I'll be honest, if this game @ Baltimore was not the first game of the season, I probably would have passed on it. But since it is, I feel this is worth a wager. I truly don't think that home-field advantage is as significant in the first game. Both teams are healthy, both are ready to start their seasons with a win, and both will be looking to kick the crap out of one another. Since you can pretty much throw all the motivational and emotional angles out for this one, it's safe to say that the best team should win this one. Well, I feel that Pittsburgh is the better team. Steelers are a better defensive team than Baltimore, and have all their starters returning on that side of the ball. Ravens have some changes, the most significant being in their secondary, where they have a number of new starters. At the same time I feel that Pittsburgh's offense is better as well. With Mendenhall getting over 400 touches last season during the SuperBowl run, I expect this PIT offense to utilize the pass much more in 2011. Roethlisberger is in his prime and he has a number of solid receivers at his disposal: Wallace, Ward, Brown, Sanders, and even Heath Miller... [More]