bookieassassin's Blog

Posted Monday, January 11, 2016 06:06 PM

CLEMSON / BAMA

Unlike most....I feel no urgency to risk my cash on these big games....I do enjoy breaking it down for fun .....often revealing other 'easier' spots to profit......
 *so don't be confused as I have no agenda here..........


BOTTOM LINE
  If you like Clemson here to cover...you should think they can win outright as well
    *BUT.. to win here...they need to play (close to) a perfect game

HOW THIS GAME PLAYS OUT....
  My hunch and the numbers...suggest that Clemson gets out to an early lead...or keeps it close for 2-3 quarters
    *If they can avoid making mistakes...move the chains (keeping their D off the field) they can stay close and cover
    ** If they also can make big plays down the field...they can win
       note: if they can't move the chains...face too many 3rd/longs...their D will wear down late > they have no shot    


2016 College Football Playoff National Championship

Clemson (14-0 / 7-5-2 / 8-6) vs. Alabama ( 13-1 / 8-6 / 5-8-1)
line: Bama -6'/50'  (1H 4/25')

Monday, January 11, 2016
8:30 p.m. ET
University of Phoenix Stadium
      turf: : Bermuda/ Ryegrass

TV:  ESPN (Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox)

Line Value
  *with Clemson...'correct' line 3'-4

ATS stuff
  *Bama away 19-2 SU / 13-8 ATS / 11-10 OU<... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 01:36 PM

WEEK 5

yes.....I know very few are interested just yet
  *many still arguing about week 1 crap......

But here's next week's stuff....lines dependent on this week's results of course....


THURSDAY 9/26


101 SAN FRANCISCO  -7
8:25 p.m. NFL
102 ST LOUIS

103 VIRGINIA TECH
7:30 p.m. ESPN
104 GEORGIA TECH -3

105 IOWA ST
7:30 p.m.   FSN
106 TULSA  P
  *ISU with Texas on deck...Tulsa off bye > Rice



FRIDAY 9/27
 
107 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
8:00 p.m.
108 BYU -17'
  *BYU > Utah / Utah St sand.

109 UTAH ST  -2
9:00 p.m. ESPN
110 SAN JOSE ST
  *Aggies> USC / BYU sand.



SATURDAY 9/28

111 VIRGINIA
12:00 p.m.
112 PITTSBURGH   -5

113 NORTHERN ILLINOIS   -3
12:00 p.m.
114 PURDUE

115 TROY
12:00 p.m.
116 DUKE   -2

117 CONNECTICUT   -3
12:00 p.m.
118 BUFFALO
 *UC off Michigan...Bills off bye

119 TOLEDO
12:00 p.m.
120 BALL ST   -5

121 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
122 NC STATE   -20'

123 KENT ST   -6'
12:00 p.m.
124 WESTERN MICHIGAN

125 EAST CAROLINA
12:00 p.m.
126 NORTH CAROLINA   -13
  *UNC > GT / VT sand..EC off BYE > MTS

127 FLORIDA ST   -24
12:00 p.m.
128 BOSTON COLLEGE
  *FSU off FCS > Terps next

129... [More]

Posted Friday, September 06, 2013 05:48 PM

WEEK 2

Looks like a dangerous week....we really need at least 2-3 games or so to get an accurate read on most teams...

Trying not to give any week 1 cash back....hit 3 silly parlays also........


FRIDAY

8:00 PM ET
Central Florida at Florida International

UCF       483     1-0 (0-0 V)     57%     53
FIU        484     0-1 (0-0 H)     43%     24

  *FIU is an absolute joke at the moment...and should get killed here...new weird coaching hire in Ron Turner..a ton of guys hurt or suspended...about 1/3 st back from a 3-9 SB team...
But UCF has a road game with Penn St on de ck...and did beat Akron (similar to FIU) by 31 at home...but allowed the Zips 8-16 on 3rd...QB Pohl to go 16-21...and was sacked 4 times themselves
I can see the Knights losing interest here...plus line value is poor
$    backing off some..1H play on UCF not bad

8:00 PM ET
Wake Forest at Boston College

WAKE       303     1-0 (0-0 V)     45%     48.5
BC            304     1-0 (1-0 H)     55%     -3

  *I think WF is the better team with the better D... [More]

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Joined: June 2007
Location: Texas
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Occupation: Degenerate

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