bracks's Blog
Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 07:38 AM
0-1-1 YTD: -2.5 Units
Sorry, I know I usually have some nice stats to go along with things, however I'm in a rush and this is the only time I will be able to post. I am going for Value today. Smaller bets but playing some exact scores that I really like.
Inter/CSKA Under 2.5 -145 **1.5 Units**
Inter-CSKA 1-1 Final +550 *1/2 Unit*
Bayern -131 **1.5 Units**
Bayern 2-1 Final +700 *1/2 Unit*
Naples 1-0, 2-0 Final +500 each *1/2 Unit*
United 3-0 Final +550 *1 Unit*
United -200 1st HF *1 Unit*
Now, you might say I'm laying a lot of chalk, there is no value there. True, however, I think it would be easy to just lay Bayern, Naples, United 1st HF and INter Under and call it a day. I really like those 4, so I'm swinging for the fences. I think Naples might have the best chances of 1 def hitting. Inter will stay under, might be 1-0 though. Untied win by 2, ? is do they get a 3rd, maybe a 4th?
GL fellas
Posted Saturday, September 24, 2011 11:44 AM
3-1 last week:+3 Units
3-2 YTD: +1/2 Unit
Inter -115 **2 Units**
Last time Inter had only 1pt from 1st 3 games was 1935-36. Bologna Last win @ Inter wa '02. They have only 1pt in last 6 @ Inter.
Posted Saturday, September 24, 2011 08:13 AM
6-0 Last Week : +13.5 Units
17-4-3 YTD: +28.2 Units
Well, have to say, I'm hoping it not a bad sign that I like this week more than last week. Karma will surely not be on my side. Going against both of my Squads. I might as well just bet on Puke to make it a Trifecta. No, they suck.
317-Ohio +4.5 **3 Units**
Williams has left the squad, the line is being shifted around,and in comes a high powered Offense. There defense can only keep them in a game for so long. The offense is passing just fine (when the WR can hold onto the ball), however there is no running game yet. I would love to say I'm wrong about this game: have justseen this story for too log to not know the outcome. They might pull out a win, they shouldn't be laying Over 4 though. Ohio is also 11-4-1 in L16 as a road dog.
346-GT -6.5 **3.5 Units***
This is another team that just isn't ready to go punch for punch. Let's face it, you canstop the Option 9/10 times. The last 1 might go for 85yrds and a TD. when Heels do have the ball, they will have to sustain drives and mak them all count. This Offense isn't ready for that. Am interested to watch the D-Line vs. the Option though. It's a gift that it's still under a TD.
337/8- Ark/Bama Under 50.5 **2.5 Units**
Few and far between have put up big pts vs. Bama and Saban. The offense get its pts over time and there is nothing more I love for an Under than a pound it out running game. Bama may get into t... [More]
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 11:29 PM
8-7 YTD: +3.08 Units
I am kinda pissed. I didn't remember to post United -Even $ as aplay on Sunday. IT was registered on Bake's Play of the Week,but oh well. I think most know I pounded it.
Bolton@ Arse Under 3-125 **3 Units***
I just do't understand this line. I guess they really have the 2-1 final (I don't see Bolt scoring). Arse are 9-0-3 @ H L12 vs. Bolton.Their Last L vs. Bolton Home was 1962. The L8 EPL games @ Emirates,Arse has scored 5G, and never more than 1. Bolton have 1W, 1D and 12 L in L14 EPL games @way. Arse keeps clean sheets @ Home, Bolton can't score. I'll take the U3.
Totts -110 **2.5 Units**
Hey, I will call myself the sucker (as most know). I know this team is better than their early season form. A W @ Wigan is not too much to ask for. I still think Spurs are a solid defensive team. I don'tsee them giving 1 up. That is really my key to making plays to be honest. I take an Under when I think 1 club really won't score, play small fav vs. a club that won't, etc. Maybe have to sweat it out, but it's called gambling guys?
Blackburn @ Newcastle Under 2.5 -130 **2 Units**
Pies are 4-1-6 in L7 @ H. Blackburn may be 1-7-3 in their L11 @way in EPL, however they are 6-0-1 in L7 @ Newcastle. This game has borefest all over it IMO, 1-1 @ most. I was thinking of playing draw, just sticking with this though.
I am only putting these up for now. United play wi... [More]
Posted Sunday, September 18, 2011 12:16 PM
3-3 YTD: +.85 Units
199/200- KC/Det Under 45 **2 Units**
The Chefs showed they can't put a meal together. Megatron is not 100%. Suh & Co. will contain this team.
201- Jax +9.5 **1.5 Units**
Just too many pts for a team that isn't into wining pretty. I have Jets as my suicide pick, however wouldn't lay this in The Swamp.
219/220- Hou/Mia Over 47.5 **1.5 Units**
Phins showed they can score and have no wanting to play defense. Texans should hit the 30+pts again.
222- SD +7 **2 Units**
Pats threw all over Mia, however they didn't impress on Defense. SD has a lot more firepower than phins IMO. If you have to travel to Boston, Set is when to do it. Flight might be across the Co, but its a late start and a short week for NE (who looked a lil tired on MNF)
3 Team Tease **2.5 Units**
207-Balt +4
210- Pitt -3.5
226- AtL +12.5
GL fellas
Posted Sunday, September 18, 2011 08:50 AM
0-1 -2.5 Units
Some of the lines have really dropped today. I would not be surprised to see a lot of draws today. Staying away from Juve & Lazio to win. Think Fiore can get the draw as well if you are looking for value plays.
Juve Under 2.5 -140 **1.5 Units**
Line has gone from -165 last night to -130 this morning. I am not worried about Siena getting 1,so I feel 2-0 at most for Juve,but think its a 1-0 match.
Lazio/Genoa Over 2.5 -125 **1.5 Units**
I don't thin Lazio will have a problem scoring all yr. They will give up almost as much though. Line drop on Lazio ML but the over went u as well. Lazio 2-1, but they might give up a late 1 for 2-2.
Fiore/Udi Draw +215 *1 Unit*
The under is probably the safer bet here, however I really think Fiore is going to lay for the draw.
Parma -Even *1 Unit**
This might be the sucker bet of the day, however @ H, I will take the flyer on even $
GL fellas I hear there is some game on @ 11am? Who's playing again? I think it's great that Fox is replaying the game @ 2pm on regular Fox. Soccer really is making a push.
Posted Saturday, September 17, 2011 09:15 AM
Last week: 4-2-1 +4.7 Units11-4-3 YTD: +14.7 Units
Well, I really don't think this is a great betting card this week, however, great football. I did make my 1st lay on 'Neers on Thurs night when the WR news broke, so that's why I have +1.
107- WVU +1 **2 Units**
110- Clemson -3-115 **2 Units**
Anything you want to read about tis game, go look @ Boom's manifesto thread. He will have said anything you had a ? about. Auburn has won games cause they were @ H IMO. Otherwise, they could have been 0-2 & getting +7 and u here. IF Utah St can get after that D, what are the Tigers going to do?
125/6 - Puke/BC Under 48 **2.5 Units**
Unless there are TO's inside the 2, I don't see this more than a FG outburst. Last yr's game was a 21-16. If you watched last week's, you will now agree that Puke's Offense is just that, offensive. I do think that BC has a stout defense, not unbeatable, but they are playing Puke. I would normally be worried about BC taking a huge lead and letting up, however, their best offensive passing weapon is out. So, I expect it to be ground n pound, taking a lot time off the clock. Backup College 23 Puke 16
3 team tease 136-UF +1/2 140-UNC pk 185 Tree +1 ***3 Units**
Tenn might have a great offense, however its against Cincy. UF has much faster athletes and a great defensive mind in Muschamp. The offense under Wies is only going to get better.
In The South's Oldest Rivalry, don't take a bad...
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Posted Saturday, September 17, 2011 07:36 AM
7-5 YTD: +4.02 Units
Arse @ Blackburn Under 2.5 -125 **1.5 Units**
I really want to back Arse here, however I just don't trust them. They have scored in 85% of their L20 and haven't given u more than 1 in 1/2 of those L20. Blackburn has only won 1 of their L9 @ H (1w in L10 vs. Arse). Defense and tight games has been the key for Blackburn @ H of late. They haven't scored more than 1g in 14/20 @ H while not conceding more than 1g in 15/L20 (6w,6d,3L). I think Arse scores 1 and holds on, just don't love it.
GL fellas Will post the 2 10am games in a bit
And how about that Irish Rugby Team
Posted Thursday, September 15, 2011 09:18 PM
Jeff Barker, Sr Writer for Baltimore Sun, just reported this on twitter 15mins ago.
He refers to both of them as "key Sr.players". Both are WR.
Tyler had 6 rec, 43yrds 1 TD vs. Mia
McCree had 7 rec, 39yrds
I like 'Neers already. I didn't think MD defense was that great vs. a subpar Mia. I think this will be a case of they can't keep up to 'Nees scoring. I am putting this in before it changes
'Neers +1 **2 Units**
Posted Monday, September 12, 2011 09:43 PM
I know, I will hear hell for this, however I don't give a crap. It"s trashing talking on a website. I can handle it.
From just 1 game, I think you can say this:
NE vs. Balt for AFC Title
GB vs. PHL for NFC Title
In the 1st 1, I don't think HFA matter as much in the AFC, however in the NFC, I think that might be the key. (even though GB beat them 2x in Philly)
Just saying, all 4 played great games. I am saying this as a "If they play they're best" thing.
Go ahead, bash away, just saying "My Opinion", which I think is what this forum is all about
Posted Sunday, September 11, 2011 11:40 AM
0-0 YTD
Well, I'm hoping college football success leads to NFL. Remembering the important things those today. When your watching the games today, remember the guy who gave u his Million dollar career to go be Ranger and defend our freedom. Never forget PT 42
459- Buffalo +4 **2 Units**
I selected this pick in the contest back when it was +6. Have you lost some value? sure. However, still having 4 is nice. I think Cassel will drop in form this yr. Weis calling the plays really helped him. No one circles the wagons like the Bills!!!
454- Balt -1 **1.5 Units**
The Black and Blue game. Home value at now only 1. Remember, they lost the playoff game, not the other way around (IMO).
464- PHL/STL Under 43.5 **1.5
Spags should have a nice game plan to slow down the "Dream Team".
467- Tenn -1 **1.5 Units**
I men, do I really have to write something about this game?
472- Zona -6.5 **2 Units**
I don't care if you want to call me a square. Maybe they called the game exactly and it lands on 7. The Kolb to Fitz connection starts off great and score enough IMO.
GL fellas
Posted Friday, September 09, 2011 11:49 PM
6-4 YTD: +4.05 Units
Well, the crazy League games after Euro Quals and before CL mid week. Don't go crazy. I think there are a couple of borefests tomorrow.
Pool @ Stoke Under 2.5 -145 **2 Units**
Stoke hasn't scored more than 1 goal in 11 of L20 @ H (1w, 5d, 5L). In those same L20 @ H they have kept a clean sheet 35% of time. Stoke hasn't conceded more than 2 goals @ H in their L25 @ H. Pool has not been a "Big 4 Power" away. They have scored exactly 1 goal in 10 of L20 away. They have been scored on in 14 of L20 away (1w, 2d, 11L). I wish I had the guts to take Stoke to get the W, but 1-1 seems to be the final.
Villa @ Everton Under 2.5 -135 **1.5 Units**
Ok, Arteta is gone now. I keep asking, who the Hell is going to score for Everton? This is getting ridiculous. I mean, Timmy can't score as well as stop everything. This might be the match up of my fav teams to take unders on this yr in EPL. Villa have only won 20% of their L20 away, while losing 1/2 of those. They have also given up a goal in 95% of those L20 away. Everton has opened the coring in 11 of L20 @ H. (8w, 3d). They also haven't conceded 2 goal @ H in the L8. Scoring will be very much at a premium. 1st to score, more likely wins.
GL fellas I am really thinking about taking the Under in Chelsea/Sunderland. WIll read up tomorrow and see if I can pull the trigger. My advise on United, walk away. I would normally say under since they are on the road, however this might be the time...
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Posted Friday, September 09, 2011 10:45 PM
7-2-2 YTD: +10 Units
Well, I think it would have been an unreal week if WVU got to finish the game and we got the TT as well. I won't complain though. Just hoe it keep going. Tough week as my world collide again: RU/UNC
Bama/PSU Under 42 **2.5 Units**
This is the back end of the home n home series. Last yr, it was a defensive struggle and I think it will be more of the same, with worse QB's. If you want a real write up, read The Freak's.
SO.Car -3 _Even **2.5 Units**
I don't think this is an over reaction to last weeks game. I said they were going to start 0-2. Boise gave UGA O fits, I expect a lot of the same from the Cocks.
RU/UNC Under 48 **2.5 Units**
Here were are again. I don't think I would do this write u justice if I didn't start with most important match up. DE Quinton Couples vs. OG Stapelton/Civil. Couple isn't just good, he is dominant. He's rob the best defensive guy in next yr draft. He will switch around, play left and right side. RU guards will have to give Dodd enough time to take advantage of Sanu/Harrison on NC d-backs. As they stretch the field, (if they have time to) Huggins and Williams should be able to run or catch the ball out of the backfield. Huggins will not be very welcomed in Keenan. Remember, it was down to NC or RU where he was going. He even tricked the media by pulling out a NC hat. Then took it off to have an RU 1 under it. I think RU needs time to get this Offense in full gear and will come u just sho...
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Posted Friday, September 09, 2011 09:20 AM
Well, this was suppose to be game 2, but now it's the 1st off the year.
1st let's get a few things out of the way. If you don't know, I pretty much only bet EPL, CL and Serie A. You will soon find out I have a theory to play games around the League and CL matches.The majority of the world might think the Italian way is too boring, I disagree. I am usually looking for the best Under. Some might not lay -150, however, I do in Serie. Discussion is always welcome. OK, enough BS, let's get it on.
Lazio @ AC Milan Under 2.5 -125 **2 Units**
The defending Champs do not get an easy start to the season. Lazio is no push over for the 1st game. AC was dominant @ H. Milan only lost twice there, while scoring 42GF and only conceding 12GA. In all games they gave up a league low 24GA with 20 clean sheets. In 24yrs, Milan have only lost once in their Season opener ('08 vs. Bologna). Add that to the fact that AC has owned this series. AC is unbeaten in Serie A play vs. Lazio in L26 games ('98). Lazio hasn't won in Milan since "89. All this info seems to make AC the play, however there's a*. Milan play Barca mid week in their 1st CL game. Don't think that not in the back of their mind. I always see teams play slow if they have a lead and take some of the older stars out. This game may change tempo if Lazio can get the 1st goal (If they score @ all). Make no mistake about it though, a draw is a HUGE win for Lazio and thats what I feel they are playing for.
A...
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Posted Sunday, September 04, 2011 11:23 AM
7-1 yesterday: +12.2 Units 7-2 ytd: +10 Units
Great day yesterday. Glad I wasn't greedy and took Miss +3 and didn't ML it. Only 1 play today and prob the last one for the week.
'Neers -23.5 **2 Units**
'Neers team total over 39.5 *1.5 Units**
This may technically be a rivalry, however I think that will just be on paper. Geno will start making his highlight reel early and often. I don't know how they don't score 40 today. Actually, that's wrong. If Smith gets hurt on the 1st play, they won't. So, just hoping that doesn't happen
GL fellas
Posted Saturday, September 03, 2011 11:18 AM
0-1 YTD: -2.2 Units
Well, at least it was a great game last night.
NWestern/BC Under 44.5 **2 Units**
It seems a lot of people like either side, just don't know why you want to play either. Persa is doubtful, Monte already out for BC. I think NW will play a vanilla offense and scoring on BC @ H should be tough. 21-17 type game.
OK -24 -115 **2.5 Units**
Tulsa main guy out, 1 word comes to mind....WOODSHED
USF/ND Under 47.5 **1.5 Units**
I think the Irish D picks up where it left off LY. With Te'o and Smith 2 guys ranked in Top 5 in nation @ their positions, BJ will be running IMO. Irish should put an priority on running the ball. 24-17 Irish.
Fresno ST +11 -120 **1.5 Units**
I just think this is way too many pts. Bought it up since BMaker had 10.5. Hill will circle the wagons with the guys and I see this game as a last poss. type finish.
Miss +3 -115 **2.5 Units**
SEC speed vs. the Mormons, getting points. Thanks, sure.
Boise -3 **2 Units**
I think UGA will be a value team later in the yr, after they start 0-2. Yes, I just talked about SEC speed, however, in a single game, on turf, I will take a very experienced Boise over 98% of schools.
Da 808 State Warriors -6.5 **2.5 Units
Colorado has lost 16 straight true road games. UH is 7-4 the L 3yrs as home favs. Buffs are with out their NFL CB now, with a new coach. June would throw, and I expect McMaklin to to the same on this D.
Fordham ...
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