bracks's Blog
Posted Saturday, October 01, 2011 09:50 AM
1-1-1 Last Week -.10 Units
9-8-1 YTD: +2.98 Units
I am still pissed about that Red Card in last weeks Arse game tat lead to my 1st push on the U3. It's been a real grind so far in Footie. SO, back to it.
Villa/Wigan Under 2.5 -130 **2 Units**
The way side is 7w,4d in L12 in this match up. Wigan however have only 1w in L13 @way. Villais unbeatenin L7 @ H, only 1Lin L14 EPL. They have drawn the L4 though. Don't feel like laying -175 on Villa.
West Brom/Sunderland Unde 2.5 -130 **2 Units**
The Black Cats have only 2w in L10 @ Stadium of Light, no draws. West Brom goal total could barely get lower than it is. Sunderland have only score more than 1g only one all yr in EPL. 1-1 draw @ most it seems.
Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 07:38 AM
0-1-1 YTD: -2.5 Units
Sorry, I know I usually have some nice stats to go along with things, however I'm in a rush and this is the only time I will be able to post. I am going for Value today. Smaller bets but playing some exact scores that I really like.
Inter/CSKA Under 2.5 -145 **1.5 Units**
Inter-CSKA 1-1 Final +550 *1/2 Unit*
Bayern -131 **1.5 Units**
Bayern 2-1 Final +700 *1/2 Unit*
Naples 1-0, 2-0 Final +500 each *1/2 Unit*
United 3-0 Final +550 *1 Unit*
United -200 1st HF *1 Unit*
Now, you might say I'm laying a lot of chalk, there is no value there. True, however, I think it would be easy to just lay Bayern, Naples, United 1st HF and INter Under and call it a day. I really like those 4, so I'm swinging for the fences. I think Naples might have the best chances of 1 def hitting. Inter will stay under, might be 1-0 though. Untied win by 2, ? is do they get a 3rd, maybe a 4th?
GL fellas
Posted Saturday, September 24, 2011 11:44 AM
3-1 last week:+3 Units
3-2 YTD: +1/2 Unit
Inter -115 **2 Units**
Last time Inter had only 1pt from 1st 3 games was 1935-36. Bologna Last win @ Inter wa '02. They have only 1pt in last 6 @ Inter.
Posted Friday, September 23, 2011 11:29 PM
8-7 YTD: +3.08 Units
I am kinda pissed. I didn't remember to post United -Even $ as aplay on Sunday. IT was registered on Bake's Play of the Week,but oh well. I think most know I pounded it.
Bolton@ Arse Under 3-125 **3 Units***
I just do't understand this line. I guess they really have the 2-1 final (I don't see Bolt scoring). Arse are 9-0-3 @ H L12 vs. Bolton.Their Last L vs. Bolton Home was 1962. The L8 EPL games @ Emirates,Arse has scored 5G, and never more than 1. Bolton have 1W, 1D and 12 L in L14 EPL games @way. Arse keeps clean sheets @ Home, Bolton can't score. I'll take the U3.
Totts -110 **2.5 Units**
Hey, I will call myself the sucker (as most know). I know this team is better than their early season form. A W @ Wigan is not too much to ask for. I still think Spurs are a solid defensive team. I don'tsee them giving 1 up. That is really my key to making plays to be honest. I take an Under when I think 1 club really won't score, play small fav vs. a club that won't, etc. Maybe have to sweat it out, but it's called gambling guys?
Blackburn @ Newcastle Under 2.5 -130 **2 Units**
Pies are 4-1-6 in L7 @ H. Blackburn may be 1-7-3 in their L11 @way in EPL, however they are 6-0-1 in L7 @ Newcastle. This game has borefest all over it IMO, 1-1 @ most. I was thinking of playing draw, just sticking with this though.
I am only putting these up for now. United play wi... [More]
Posted Sunday, September 18, 2011 08:50 AM
0-1 -2.5 Units
Some of the lines have really dropped today. I would not be surprised to see a lot of draws today. Staying away from Juve & Lazio to win. Think Fiore can get the draw as well if you are looking for value plays.
Juve Under 2.5 -140 **1.5 Units**
Line has gone from -165 last night to -130 this morning. I am not worried about Siena getting 1,so I feel 2-0 at most for Juve,but think its a 1-0 match.
Lazio/Genoa Over 2.5 -125 **1.5 Units**
I don't thin Lazio will have a problem scoring all yr. They will give up almost as much though. Line drop on Lazio ML but the over went u as well. Lazio 2-1, but they might give up a late 1 for 2-2.
Fiore/Udi Draw +215 *1 Unit*
The under is probably the safer bet here, however I really think Fiore is going to lay for the draw.
Parma -Even *1 Unit**
This might be the sucker bet of the day, however @ H, I will take the flyer on even $
GL fellas I hear there is some game on @ 11am? Who's playing again? I think it's great that Fox is replaying the game @ 2pm on regular Fox. Soccer really is making a push.
Posted Saturday, September 17, 2011 07:36 AM
7-5 YTD: +4.02 Units
Arse @ Blackburn Under 2.5 -125 **1.5 Units**
I really want to back Arse here, however I just don't trust them. They have scored in 85% of their L20 and haven't given u more than 1 in 1/2 of those L20. Blackburn has only won 1 of their L9 @ H (1w in L10 vs. Arse). Defense and tight games has been the key for Blackburn @ H of late. They haven't scored more than 1g in 14/20 @ H while not conceding more than 1g in 15/L20 (6w,6d,3L). I think Arse scores 1 and holds on, just don't love it.
GL fellas Will post the 2 10am games in a bit
And how about that Irish Rugby Team
Posted Friday, September 09, 2011 11:49 PM
6-4 YTD: +4.05 Units
Well, the crazy League games after Euro Quals and before CL mid week. Don't go crazy. I think there are a couple of borefests tomorrow.
Pool @ Stoke Under 2.5 -145 **2 Units**
Stoke hasn't scored more than 1 goal in 11 of L20 @ H (1w, 5d, 5L). In those same L20 @ H they have kept a clean sheet 35% of time. Stoke hasn't conceded more than 2 goals @ H in their L25 @ H. Pool has not been a "Big 4 Power" away. They have scored exactly 1 goal in 10 of L20 away. They have been scored on in 14 of L20 away (1w, 2d, 11L). I wish I had the guts to take Stoke to get the W, but 1-1 seems to be the final.
Villa @ Everton Under 2.5 -135 **1.5 Units**
Ok, Arteta is gone now. I keep asking, who the Hell is going to score for Everton? This is getting ridiculous. I mean, Timmy can't score as well as stop everything. This might be the match up of my fav teams to take unders on this yr in EPL. Villa have only won 20% of their L20 away, while losing 1/2 of those. They have also given up a goal in 95% of those L20 away. Everton has opened the coring in 11 of L20 @ H. (8w, 3d). They also haven't conceded 2 goal @ H in the L8. Scoring will be very much at a premium. 1st to score, more likely wins.
GL fellas I am really thinking about taking the Under in Chelsea/Sunderland. WIll read up tomorrow and see if I can pull the trigger. My advise on United, walk away. I would normally say under since they are on the road, however this might be the time...
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Posted Friday, September 09, 2011 09:20 AM
Well, this was suppose to be game 2, but now it's the 1st off the year.
1st let's get a few things out of the way. If you don't know, I pretty much only bet EPL, CL and Serie A. You will soon find out I have a theory to play games around the League and CL matches.The majority of the world might think the Italian way is too boring, I disagree. I am usually looking for the best Under. Some might not lay -150, however, I do in Serie. Discussion is always welcome. OK, enough BS, let's get it on.
Lazio @ AC Milan Under 2.5 -125 **2 Units**
The defending Champs do not get an easy start to the season. Lazio is no push over for the 1st game. AC was dominant @ H. Milan only lost twice there, while scoring 42GF and only conceding 12GA. In all games they gave up a league low 24GA with 20 clean sheets. In 24yrs, Milan have only lost once in their Season opener ('08 vs. Bologna). Add that to the fact that AC has owned this series. AC is unbeaten in Serie A play vs. Lazio in L26 games ('98). Lazio hasn't won in Milan since "89. All this info seems to make AC the play, however there's a*. Milan play Barca mid week in their 1st CL game. Don't think that not in the back of their mind. I always see teams play slow if they have a lead and take some of the older stars out. This game may change tempo if Lazio can get the 1st goal (If they score @ all). Make no mistake about it though, a draw is a HUGE win for Lazio and thats what I feel they are playing for.
A...
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