Posted Sunday, August 04, 2013 12:46 PM
Lots and lots of high lines today. It'll be hard to separate the lines that are legitimately high for a reason vs. lines that inflated and thus have value on the other side.
Here is my attempt at some picks on Sunday:
Cardinals +118: In this rivalry battle between two of the best teams in the National League, this is practically a coin toss and I'll take the dog here. Frankly, I've never seen Mike Leake as a very good pitcher, and it actually really surprises me to see him doing so well this year. Most of his success has been on the road, as he's 7-1 on the road, vs. just 3-3 at home.
Marlins +120: Going back to the well again and taking the Marlins yet again today. I desperately wanted to find an angle and take the Indians, but the Marlins have definitely some advantages on paper. Eovaldi has pitched really well for the year, 46 ip, 36 hits allowed, and he's even been better at home, limiting opponents to a measly .177 average at home. His main problem is walks, and if he can cut that down, the Fish should be able to score a few runs off Kazmir for him. Indians also don't have Swisher or Carlos Santana in the lineup today.
Giants +168: Hard for me to back them again today, but I don't think Roberto Hernandez should be a -195 favorite against anyone. He's by far the weakest link in the Rays rotation. The question will be if Moscoso can give the Giants a quality start. I'll tell you one thing, he can't be worse than Barry Zito (the person he'... [More]
Posted Saturday, August 03, 2013 06:12 PM
What's up guys? Have a few bets pending (Rangers, Braves and won on the Royals in the AM) but here are some of my thoughts for the rest of the day:
Giants +200: I definitely think that there is some significant value here on the Giants at +200 and Timmy here in this spot. Let's face it, Lincecum is nowhere near the pitcher he was a few years ago when he won back to back CY Youngs, but he still strikes out more than 1 batter per inning (127 ip, 137 Ks). He's actually allowed less hits than innings pitched too (127 ip, 120 hits allowed). So you know he still has dominant stuff. David Price is an amazing pitcher, but he's not invincible. 47.1 ip at home, 53 hits allowed, 1.27 WHIP and 4.18 ERA. And he's only 1-4 at home. At +200, give me the Giants for a unit here!
Marlins +120: I've made it a rule to always look at the Marlins whenever Jose Fernandez and Jacob Turner is pitching, especially at home, and this is definitely a juicy situation here. Most bettors won't back the Marlins because they are prejudiced based on what they hear from the media. Frankly though, the Marlins are putting together an exciting young team, and it all starts with their starting pitching. Jacob Turner has put together quite a season, 71 ip so far, only 60 hits allowed and a 1.19 WHIP. He's done even better at home, throwing 36 innings, and only allowing 26 hits, 0.99 WHIP, and a 2.23 ERA. Opponents are hitting a lowly .205 against him at home. Amazing numbers! Meanwhile, Zach McAllister ha... [More]
Posted Friday, August 02, 2013 12:49 PM
Looking at this matchup on paper, it seems like a no brainer to take the Dodgers, the better team and the hotter team.
But if you delve deeper and look at the starting pitching matchups, the Cubs do seem to have an advantage there.
Travis Wood, the Cubs lone all star, has put together a magnificent year. 135 ip, only 101 hits allowed, .207 batting average against. At home, he's been even better, 79 ip, only 61 hits allowed, 1.10 WHIP, 2.72 ERA. .211 batting average against at home. Astounding.
Ryu, who has been very good as a pickup from Korea, has struggled a bit on the road. 60 ip, 61 hits allowed, 1.41 WHIP and a 4.62 ERA. Opponents are hitting .264 against him on the road.
At +135, the Cubs have significant value as a home dog.
Good luck everyone.
Posted Thursday, May 20, 2010 12:30 PM
I'm loving the Braves today. They are a different team at home (12-6 this year) and they are coming off a pretty exciting win. What more can you say about Jason Heyward that hasn't already been said? He's a monster and he's getting even more at bats now that they've moved him to the 2 spot in the lineup. Eric Hinske has been a pleasant surprise for them. And they have Tommy Hanson on the mound.
What the kid Mike Leake has done so far without one inning of minor league baseball has been nothing short of amazing. The kid is 4-0 with a sub 4 era. However, I don't expect him to be perfect every time out and this is a decent spot for him to get his first loss on the road. Also, Scott Rolen and Johnny Gomes (arguably the Reds hottest hitter right now) are out of the lineup today.
As for the Phillies, I look for them to break their modest 2 game losing streak today with a bang. J Roll is back and he gives the team a ton more balance. Phils are 13-7 their last 20 games against right handers. Cubs are without Aramis today (some may call that a blessing). Look for the Phils to bounce back at home.
Posted Sunday, May 16, 2010 12:58 PM
Even with Mitre pitching, the Yanks have a decided advantage against the Twins at home.
Blackburn is not very good on the road, the Yanks are 8-2 their last 10 against righties, and Blackburn is 0-3 in the last three years at Yankee Stadium.
Mitre just needs to throw 5 and allow the Yanks offense to do it's thang.
Also looking for the Jays to stay hot at home (Morrow's numbers are horrible but the kid has so much potential), a small bet on the Reds (I hate Brad Penny and I think he's so overrated; Gomes is on fire as are the Reds), and I'll be riding the Pirates once again! They are playing well against the Cubbies and at +190, you just can't go wrong!
Posted Tuesday, May 11, 2010 05:47 PM
On my way to the game tonight to watch Zito dominate once again on my birthday!
Giants are coming off a decent 4-2 roadie, and they are battling the Pads for first place in the West, with memories of a three game sweep earlier in the season in San Diego. Panda just could not wait for that road trip to end as he slumped badly on the entire trip. Don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe he's hitting like, .067 in May.
Nothing better than some home cooking for the cure!
Look for the Giants to come out with a purpose tonight on their first game of the homestand! In Zito we trust.
Also looking to take the Royals, the Marlins, and the Angels at home.
Good luck guys!
Posted Sunday, May 09, 2010 01:11 PM
i'm liking the dodgers today. Kershaw is legit, and when he's on, there aren't many better than him. You have to remember, he's only 23 or something like that. I look for him to bounce back from his worst start of the year.
It's always hard to bet against Jimenez; he's that good. But no one is perfect, and this situation is set up for the Dodgers pretty well at home. Either is a monster and the return of Manny should help balance that lineup out.
Give me the Dodgers with plus money at home.
Posted Wednesday, May 05, 2010 02:01 AM
-The Freak is amazing. He was just crusing against the Marlins. Just absolutely unhittable. I think he had 9 or 10 K's through 5. As good as he was though, Hanley was unbelievable too, taking him yard, on a pitch that was just too good to hit. Ruined an unbelievable night from Lincecum. Can't believe he struck out 13 and didn't get a win. Dude should be 6-0. And you wonder why at the end of the year, people say wins for a pitcher don't mean a DAMN thing.
-San Diego just cannot lose at home. They have this amazing ability to keep any game that they play at home close, and with that bullpen, that is just a recipe for success. I love Chase Headley. That kid is gonna be a player and one of the main reasons why they were willing to give up on Kouzmanoff. They built that team perfectly for Petco.
-Can people stop running onto the field please? These idiots deserve to be tased. I applaud the officer who did that. Actually, next time some idiot runs on the field, I say Ryan Howard has free reign to get a shot at the guy. That'll teach them a lesson. The field is for the players. Stay the fuck off.
Onto Wednesday's games:
-Giants -145. How do you not keep taking Zito here? The guy is pitching the best baseball of his life and he has great lifetime numbers against the Marlins. He's 4-0 against the Marlins, with a 2.35 era and 30 ips and only 20 hits. Give me the Giants here as they keep rolling.
-Cardinals -125... [More]
Posted Sunday, May 02, 2010 12:54 PM
-Yovanni Gallardo is nails! 7 ips, 11 ks, and 1 HR to boot. He single handedly won that game for the Brewers last night. The kid is a ballplayer and refused to lose, throwing 122 pitches, knowing that he had to go deep into the ballgame for his beleaguered pen. Props to Latroy and Hoffy too for stepping it up too.
-Dice-K, is it safe to say that he's a bust?? Well, at least for the price that he's getting paid..For the 100 million that the Sox paid to get him (50 mil just to have the rights to NEGOTIATE with him), you'd figure you'd want more from him than what is equilvant to a number 3 starter.
-I've said this before, and I'll say it again...The Diamondbacks bullpen should all just go kill themselves. What a bunch of dogs. Someone look to the minors and call up someone that can get 3 damn outs in the late innings. Howry is the ultimate gas can. DFA him immediately.
Onto today's picks:
Boston -150: Beckett's gotta turn it around sometime right??? He's really been scuffling, but traditionally, he's pitched well at Camden (4-1 with a 3.28 era). Youk is not in the lineup today but Mike Lowell has great numbers against Millwood. Look for Boston to avoid the sweep today against the O's.
Royals +130: I'll take a flier on Greinke getting his win here. Hate betting against the Rays but Greinke has been getting it done. His numbers are not as amazing as last year's, but are still top notch. 31 ip, only 28 hits all... [More]
Posted Saturday, May 01, 2010 12:55 PM
not much time for random thoughts but here are some:
-I freaking hate the MLB Saturday blackout rules. They are just completely retarded. Giants game blacked out today and just ruins my Saturday.
-Rockies are so talented but they are just getting killed by injuries. Street, De La Rosa, Hawpe, Hammel, all on the DL. Btw, did anyone see Carlos Gonzalez try and bunt in an RBI situation yesterday? What a horrible play and a gift for the Giants.
onto today's picks:
Angels +101: Simple reasoning here. Kazmir has owned the Tigers whereas Angels have hit Bonderman really well.
More coming up.
Posted Friday, April 30, 2010 12:39 PM
-Man. I have to stop betting on the Brewers. I feel like I'm in a support meeting. "Hi my name is Bruins17. And I need to stop betting on the Brewers. They are dogs and their bullpen sucks." After last night's debacle, if I ever say I'm going to take Doug Davis again, someone just shoot me okay? The guy does not belong on a team in the Majors. Jeff Suppan does not belong on a team in the majors.
-Boy the Dodgers are in the same boat as the Brewers right now. Getting shut out at home, against the Pirates, with a guy named Brian Burres on the mound, who coming into the game had a 7 plus era. Ouch. I guess the writing was on the wall though if coming into the season, your biggest acquistions were Jamey Carroll, Russ Ortiz, Ramon Ortiz and resigning Vincente Padilla. Good luck Dodgers.
-Robinson Cano...8 HRS?!? Wow...A-Rod and Tex should be embarrased..your second baseman is carrying the team.
Onto today's picks:
-Giants -133. Zito, Zito, Zito...ahhh how we've forgotten how good you can be! The guy is just on a roll right now and even better, he has awesome numbers against the Rockies. In the past three years, Zito is 4-2 with a 2.05 era, 70 ip and only 45 hits allowed. Giants have been rolling at home too. Look for that to continue against a Rockies team that has been decimated by injuries so far.
-Diamondbacks +145. Pretty great value here to be betting on a team that has been lighting up the scoreboar... [More]
Posted Wednesday, April 28, 2010 03:47 AM
-Giants are getting hot at home. I called the Wellemeyer start...he was way overdue for a good start. I know Spring stats don't mean a thing, but he really was pitching well in the spring, earning the 5th starter job. He was really impressive tonight. Of course, it also helps when you have a defense that plays great behind you. I'm so happy that Nate Schierholtz is finally getting a chance to play everyday. He showed flashes of brillance last year in RF and he only proved that he can play RF again tonight with two amazing OF assists. Giants go for the sweep tomorrow with the Freak on the mound!
-Is Trevor Hoffman done??? 5 earned runs in the ninth, after Fielder HRs to give them the lead. Blown save number 3 and a 13.50 ERA...ouch. He seems like he can't get away with such a subpar fastball anymore since his changeup is not as effective anymore. I look for the Brewers to bounce back tomorrow though. More on this game later.
-Colorado is unbeatable when Ubaldo pitches. Give the guy 2 runs (they gave him 12 today) and chalk up another win. He's that good guys. Days of the wild Ubaldo are long over; I think he's the third best pitcher in the NL behind Lincecum and Halladay.
Onto Wednesday's games:
Brewers -155: I have no clue who this Narveson guy is but Paul Maholm has some ridiculous splits here. Past three years, he has a 5.21 era and a 10-21 record on the road. Moreover he has a 5.32 era and a 7-14 record in... [More]
Posted Tuesday, April 27, 2010 02:22 AM
-Boy, the Brew Crew just have the right formula to get healthy...and that's to play the Pirates. After getting swept away at home against the Cubbies, they take out their agression against the hapless Buccos. I just feel so bad for Pirate fans. They have a jewel of a ballpark, and a fan base that is fanatical about their sports (Steelers, Penguins and Pitt Panther sports) but they just cannot put together a winning squad. Call up Pedro Alverez now...might as well right??
-I just cannot get a feel on the Rangers at all. They are the type of team that is just not consistent enough for me to get a guage and put my hard earned money on them. Then again, I took them today, and I gave up on them in the 4th, only to have them storm all the way back and tie the game...and then their closer gives up back to back jacks. So it goes sometimes.
-The Giants really had a great gameplan against Halladay tonight. They were attacking his pitches early in the count; moreover, the Giants bullpen was just nails tonight. Sergio Romo is definitely not a household name, but man, he's great. The Giants have a great back of the pen with Affeldt, Romo, and Wilson to close it. Reminds me of the formula that they had in 2002 with Nathan, Felix Rodriguez, Worrell and Nen to close.
Onto Tuesday's picks:
-Astros -125. Berkman has just injected life into this once hapless team. That's the one thing I just love about baseball; a team can look like t... [More]
Posted Sunday, April 25, 2010 03:50 AM
-Barry Zito is back. I was at the game tonight and Zito was just DEALING. The main difference I've seen from Zito now and Zito past is that he's locating his fastball so much better now. The hitters used to just sit on his curve since he could not throw his fastball for strikes. Simply by just eliminating his walks, his curve has become that much more effective. Good for him.
-Padres continue to be on FIRE. Granted, the Reds aren't very good, but to win 8 in a row against anyone, that's pretty impressive. That bullpen is just nails. You get a lead into the 6th and 7th innings, they have some door shutters.
-The Yanks just keep rolling. The scary part is that their big hitters aren't even hitting yet, and they are still winning with ease. Phil Hughes finally is living up to his hype.
-Can one man really make that big of a difference? Before Lance Berkman got healthy, the Astros had a chance to be one of the worst teams in recent memory. Then Berkman comes back and they rattle off some wins. Pretty amazing that Carlos Lee got his first RBI on Thursday night.
Onto Sunday's picks:
Brewers -120: Love this spot here for the Brewers. After their 20-0 win over the Pirates, they dropped 2 in a row to the hapless Cubbies. I look for their bats to regain the swagger that they had in Pittsburgh and avoid the sweep. Brewers have some pretty nice numbers against Wells in limited appearances. Braun hitting ... [More]