Posted Sunday, December 13, 2009 08:23 AM
hands up nba cappers who had the lakers to beat utah and got the 2 points as a dog line?
well i am sure 8/10 of you had them as a value play. why not throw a few bucks on the hot lakers and i get +2 to boot. fact is vegas cleaned up with utah winning from start to finish. more than 80% of the public were on the lakeshow. there is a correlation to this week's sucker bet as i am going to bank on vegas for this selection the same way i played the utah jazz tonight.
i have a 7-0 ats record going since posting here, not including ml and teaser winnings. in demapples fashion for this pick i am going with what he would play or i think what he would play. though i did bet this at -3 and not where it currently stands at 3' it is a risky bet and have a few other games on the go that i also think is worthwhile value.
the sucker bet this week is for joe public to bet on the san diego chargers.
so the play is dallas -3' ...although truthfully the wise thing to do is to buy this down to 3 as the chargers seem to do well against the nfc east.
this is the top bet game at s insight..74% spread and 76% looking for dog money payout.
is vegas and ovs books stupid enough to hand over free money in turn started giving you +150 for chargers su and now has blossomed to ver +167? i am sure there are the same bettors taking the +167 now who got in earlier. also there is reverse line movement with the volume of bets and now wants to give you an extra half point.
th...
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Posted Sunday, November 29, 2009 07:24 AM
demapples has not been around and i miss his sucker bet w/u. i am surely not a replacement but here goes a game that he might pick...
with over 90% of the action going miami dolphin's way and we see that the spread is stuck at -3.5 with more lopsided bets coming the fish's way one can't ignore buffalo in this spot.
mia already beat the bills this year 38-10. hardly likely to see an upset with the beating they took, but if that is the way you see this score then why only -3.5?
-it will be 45 degrees out hardly weather that miami is acclimated to.
-the bills won 38-17 as 6.5 favs 2 series ago.
-ronnie brown is out
the above 3 are some reasons to back the bills.
yeah the bills are bad. they did show some life in the first half last week then succumbing in crumbling fashion that is bills football.
there might be some intangibles to this line however that we don't know about.
maybe the bills really like the new coaching system as they now might be familiar with running the plays.
miami is on its second road game winning the first which might mean letdown.
i don't like betting on bad teams. this is as scary as it gets as intangibles with the new regime is the only thing to go on to explain the 'trap' line
so there u have it as the books will continue taking miami bets and not letting this get past -4
buffalo bills +3.5