nba playoffs sunday

Posting one up there:

Orlando/Boston Under 95.5 1H

For various reasons.

NBA 2/18 Nuggs at Cavs total discussion

Does anyone else see some value in the Under at 206?

-Looking back at all Thursday Night games this season (based on Covers closing line) the Under has cashed 24 times versus 11 times for the Over.  Linesmakers do not give away money in heavily bet games and most people will want to bet an Over on a Nationally televised game. 

-In their last three games before the break, the Cavs have gone over three in a row, while Denver has gone over in three of their last four before the break possibly increasing the total in tonight's tilt and giving further value to the Under.

-In their last match-up on Jan. 8th at Denver, the total closed at 202 and the final score was 99-97 with the Nuggets winning, a final total of 196.  Both teams shot a respectable 45% from the field, over 40% from 3-point land, and put in 40 points from the charity stripe and still went under by 6.  Yes Carmelo Anthony was out but I still don't think he is worth 4 points on a total.  Add that this low scoring game was played at Denver where the Nuggets average roughly 5 more points per game than on the road.

-Last season, with a lot of the same cast of characters, these two teams played to a total of 193 and 209.  In the game where they went over the total, the Cavs shot a ridiculous 57% from the field, while the Nuggets shot roughly 48% and put in 21 points from the charity and it still only eclipsed tonight's total by 3 points.

So far:

Pl... [More]

nba games played after OT stats

After watching two games go into OT last night I looked into how teams performed in their next game following an overtime game this season.  I came up with the following:

1) Teams in the East are 11-16 Straight up following an OT game.
2) Teams in the East are 13-14 ats (7-10 ats as dogs, 6-4 as favorites).
3) Teams in the West are 16-15 Straight up following an OT game.
4) Teams in the West are 11-19-1 ats (4-8ats as dogs, 7-11-1 as favorites).
5) The teams with the best records after an OT game are the Mavs and Lakers at 5-0 and 3-1 respectively.
6) If you take out the three teams with the best records from each conference, the remaining teams are 15-27 straight up after an overtime game and 16-25ats (9-17 as dogs and 7-8-1 as favorites).

nfl playoff-Jets at Bengals (write-up)

What goes up must come down...eventually.  The Jets dominated the Bengals on all fronts in Week 17 playing with the utmost passion, desire, and urgency.  On the other side, the Bengals team was able to muster only one first down in the first half due to penalty and its defense got totally gashed by the Jets running game.  At this point, the Jets could not look any better to the betting world and the Bengals could not look any worse.

In looking at the result of this game ultimately you have to ask who wanted it more.  That answer is obviously the Jets.  The Bengals simply did not need this game.  Yes, they were playing for the 3rd seed in the playoffs but they already had a home game next week locked up.  In my opinion, Marvin Lewis was taking a let’s see what happens approach.  The following excerpt was taken from an article written by Geoff Hobson:

    “Even as the players headed to the bus to take them to The Meadowlands for Sunday night’s game, they weren’t sure how Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis was going to play the regular-season finale against the Jets.

    “What’s going on?” asked one starter and when the answer was a shrug, he shrugged back.

    Head coach Marvin Lewis tipped his hand with the inactive list when he sat starting running back Cedric Benson and started rookie Bernard Scott. Also out are three defensive starters, tackle Domata Peko, left ... [More]

The Oakland Raiders (2003-Present): A Case Study

Since their Super Bowl defeat in the 2002-03 season the Raiders have consistently been the worst NFL franchise year in and year out.  In the past six seasons they have averaged a mere 4 wins per year which is especially poor considering the league is designed to create parity.  In the past three weeks they have lost to the Broncos by 20, the Houston Texans by 23 and the Giants by 37 while scoring a respective 3, 6 and 7 points.  JaMarcus Russell is leading the offense with a Ryan Leaf like 47.1 passer rating (Leaf's actual career rating was 50.)  One thing that has been constant for the Raiders is there propensity to burn your money, especially in their home games.  As you can see from the numbers below the Raiders have only covered more than 2 home spreads one time since 2003.  However, the Raiders have only been a double digit home underdog one time (last year they were 0-1 ATS.)  If you straight up faded the Raiders for the last six seasons you would be 58-37 (61%) ATS and if you faded at home you'd be a mindblowing 34-47 (73%) ATS.  This research has led to me ask several questions:

Question 1: Why has it taken the linesmakers so long to catch up with how bad the Raiders are (six years and counting)?
Question 2: Since the Raiders have been double digit dogs only once in the past 6 years have the linesmakers finally caught up? or
Question 3: Are the linesmakers still underestimating how bad the Raiders are this season? C... [More]

ncaaf Saturday: plays/leans (Please add insights)

college 14-8 ats
(7-1) 2units
(7-7) 1unit

Plays locked in earlier in week:

Cinci -27 (If this keeps rising, might have to play a half-middle at some point)
Miss -9.5
Miami +7 (might add more at 7.5)
Stanford -6 (for some reason this play worries me, thought I was getting a good line on Monday and can't really buy back now.)

Leaning but have yet to play:

Maryland +13 (Clemson is a defensive minded running team this year.  Maryland is a defenseless minded running team that normally plays good when no ones expects anything out of them.  The only thing holding me back is the severe regression in talent on the MD
squad this year.  Almost losing to JMU, losing to MTSU, and getting blown out by Rutgers at home says how down they are this year.)

Cuse +6.5 (This is a different Cuse team this season who has shown they can stay with teams that are more talented while covering 3 of their games as dogs.  Here they get USF in a
great letdown spot after upsetting Florida St. with their star QB out for the season.  I think this to be a close game.  Waiting to see if a 7 comes my way.)

Wisconsin +3

Florida St-3.5 (I can understand why this number has come down as FSU can't be trusted to lay a number to anyone at this point.  They are a complete Jekyl and Hyde team but they do have the superior athletes in this one.  One thing FSU has shown over the past season and a half is that they... [More]

NFL Thursday Game Notes

Opening Line Pitt -4.5
Current Line Pitt -6

LY at tenn pitt favored by 1 lost the game 31-14
Steelers rushed 24 times for 71 yards (3.0 avg)
Titans rushed 31 times for 117 yards (3.8 avg)
Steelers passed 26 for 42 for 303 yards and 2 ints (11.6 avg)
Titans passed 20-29 for 206 yards and 0 ints (10.3 avg)
Pitt fumbled twice
Tenn had 5 sacks vs 1 for Pitt
LY
Pitt avg. 206.3 yards passing/gm and 105.6 yards rushing/gm
Tenn avg. 176.2 yards passing/gm and 137.4 yards rushing/gm
Pitt allowed avg. 156.9 yards passing/gm and 80.3 rushing/gm
Tenn allowed avg. 199.8 yards passing/gm and 93.9 rushing/gm

titans as dogs of 3+ points regular season
06-07 9-3 ats (year team started 0-5, finished 8-8)
07-08 3-0 ats
08-09 1-0 ats

steelers as favs of 4.5 to 6.5 reg season
08-09 1-3 ats
layed 6.5 at home to texans won 38-17
layed 6 on road at cleveland won 10-6
layed 6 to baltimore at home won 23-20
layed 4.5 to san diego at home won 11-10

pitt LY home record
6 wins at home vs.
texans 38-17
baltimore 23-20
chargers 11-10
bengals 27-10
cowboys 20-13
cleveland 31-0

2 losses at home vs.
giants 21-14
colts 24-20

tenn LY road record
6 wins on road vs.
cinci 24-7
baltimore 13-10
kc 34-10
bears 21-14
jags 24-14
detroit 47-10

2 losses on road vs.
texans 13-12
colts 23-0

Tenn
Key Additions for game: DT Jovan Haye WR Kenny Britt[More]

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week 4 nfl sunday

Excuse the short post its been a long day of drinking...
leans as of now:

KC +9.5 (again pride at home indivison) and Under 47
Texans +7 (again they're better than shown but Kubiak sucks)
Bucs -1.5 (not enough respect)
Skins +10.5 (not enough respect)
Bears +3 (fired up squad)

was thinking Niners but confused on that with all the movement...

NFL Week 2 Writeups/Leans/Plays

Leans as of now, Will pare down:

Raiders +3.5
-this is a battle of two below average ball teams.  Everyone saw the Chiefs hang tough with a chance to tie the ballgame on the road vs The Pats while on Monday Night the Raiders get pasted at Home vs the Broncos.  I don't think the Chiefs are as good as they looked and I don't think the Raiders are as bad as they looked. 
Their also has to be motivation here for the Raiders wanting to make up for their woeful performance.  No one likes to be embarrassed especially on primetime and I look for this defense, especially the talented secondary to be playing with a chip on their shoulders this week.  Maybe the egos and big signings the Raiders made this off-season made them a little overconfident and cocky, and hopefully this first week brought them down to earth.  Another angle I like about this in-division matchup is that it is usually a tightly contested game.  The Raiders lost at home to the Chiefs 12-10 but beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead 20-17 with both numbers falling under the line set at 3.5 and I think  this hook could prove large here.

Vikes +2
-the Colts are an above average football team no question but I don't see them as the elite team they were a couple years ago.  They are a better team than they showed last week for sure but their offense looked a bit rusty and their run defense was pretty poor, getting shredded for 183 yards.  ... [More]

NFL Week 1

My leans so far:

Buffalo Bills Even Improved team on both sides of the ball with key additions on defense and offense and another year under the belts of Edwards, Lynch, and Receiving Corps. They go up against a good Seahawks team with a great defense returning all of their starters.  I have questions whether the Hawks can overcome their offensive deficiencies with a makeshift right side of the offensive line and no established go to receiver with both Engram and Branch out.  The line is saying the Seahawks are a 3 point favorite over the Bills on a nuetral field and I see these teams as being even giving value on the Bills at anything under -3.  Although the Bills were 4-4 last year at home those losses were to the Pats, Giants, Broncos(which they should have won), and Cowboys.  They are a very capable team and should be hungry in their season opener.

Houston Texans +6 1/2

Tennessee Titans +3 (-115)

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2

Green Bay -2 1/2

Write-ups to come for remaining games.

saturday bases

17-7 +18.46 Units Year to Date

6-0 yesterday.

I'm not in love with this card and have seen a dramatic loss of value on several underdogs I would have been interested in at opening price.

I was interested in backing San DIego, White Sox, Nationals, and Texas but lost too much value and they become a no play for me.

A couple other games I'm looking at for probably only a half unit:

Giants- I like this Correia kid but I'm still trying to figure out if there's enough value yet because this lineup might be one of the worst overall I've seen in a while. I might bite if I can get another 10-15 cents.

Marlins- I can't believe how many people are backing Maholm and the Pirates today.  I recognize Maholm has nice stuff and could develop into a solid thrower one day but he was putrid on the road last year allowing a .328 avg and 15 hr's.  Aside from one bad inning against the Mets, Hendrickson didn't pitch all that bad and has the ability to shut down opposing teams.  I think I might play the contrarian and put a small play on the Fish.

Phillies- I still see some value on the Phils here.  Hoping this one moves in my favor somewhat.  I'll take the lineup alone at this price even against Harang.

Orioles- Another contrarian play.  I know Loewen has been out forever but he was a nice young prospect before his injury and just a gut feeling here.

Rays- I really like this team this year and I think we'... [More]