The Oakland Raiders (2003-Present): A Case Study

Since their Super Bowl defeat in the 2002-03 season the Raiders have consistently been the worst NFL franchise year in and year out.  In the past six seasons they have averaged a mere 4 wins per year which is especially poor considering the league is designed to create parity.  In the past three weeks they have lost to the Broncos by 20, the Houston Texans by 23 and the Giants by 37 while scoring a respective 3, 6 and 7 points.  JaMarcus Russell is leading the offense with a Ryan Leaf like 47.1 passer rating (Leaf's actual career rating was 50.)  One thing that has been constant for the Raiders is there propensity to burn your money, especially in their home games.  As you can see from the numbers below the Raiders have only covered more than 2 home spreads one time since 2003.  However, the Raiders have only been a double digit home underdog one time (last year they were 0-1 ATS.)  If you straight up faded the Raiders for the last six seasons you would be 58-37 (61%) ATS and if you faded at home you'd be a mindblowing 34-47 (73%) ATS.  This research has led to me ask several questions:

Question 1: Why has it taken the linesmakers so long to catch up with how bad the Raiders are (six years and counting)?
Question 2: Since the Raiders have been double digit dogs only once in the past 6 years have the linesmakers finally caught up? or
Question 3: Are the linesmakers still underestimating how bad the Raiders are this season? C... [More]

ncaaf Saturday: plays/leans (Please add insights)

college 14-8 ats
(7-1) 2units
(7-7) 1unit

Plays locked in earlier in week:

Cinci -27 (If this keeps rising, might have to play a half-middle at some point)
Miss -9.5
Miami +7 (might add more at 7.5)
Stanford -6 (for some reason this play worries me, thought I was getting a good line on Monday and can't really buy back now.)

Leaning but have yet to play:

Maryland +13 (Clemson is a defensive minded running team this year.  Maryland is a defenseless minded running team that normally plays good when no ones expects anything out of them.  The only thing holding me back is the severe regression in talent on the MD
squad this year.  Almost losing to JMU, losing to MTSU, and getting blown out by Rutgers at home says how down they are this year.)

Cuse +6.5 (This is a different Cuse team this season who has shown they can stay with teams that are more talented while covering 3 of their games as dogs.  Here they get USF in a
great letdown spot after upsetting Florida St. with their star QB out for the season.  I think this to be a close game.  Waiting to see if a 7 comes my way.)

Wisconsin +3

Florida St-3.5 (I can understand why this number has come down as FSU can't be trusted to lay a number to anyone at this point.  They are a complete Jekyl and Hyde team but they do have the superior athletes in this one.  One thing FSU has shown over the past season and a half is that they... [More]