bushman9's Blog

ncaaf Saturday: plays/leans (Please add insights)

By bushman9 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, October 03, 2009 12:47 AM   10 comments
college 14-8 ats
(7-1) 2units
(7-7) 1unit

Plays locked in earlier in week:

Cinci -27 (If this keeps rising, might have to play a half-middle at some point)
Miss -9.5
Miami +7 (might add more at 7.5)
Stanford -6 (for some reason this play worries me, thought I was getting a good line on Monday and can't really buy back now.)

Leaning but have yet to play:

Maryland +13 (Clemson is a defensive minded running team this year.  Maryland is a defenseless minded running team that normally plays good when no ones expects anything out of them.  The only thing holding me back is the severe regression in talent on the MD
squad this year.  Almost losing to JMU, losing to MTSU, and getting blown out by Rutgers at home says how down they are this year.)

Cuse +6.5 (This is a different Cuse team this season who has shown they can stay with teams that are more talented while covering 3 of their games as dogs.  Here they get USF in a
great letdown spot after upsetting Florida St. with their star QB out for the season.  I think this to be a close game.  Waiting to see if a 7 comes my way.)

Wisconsin +3

Florida St-3.5 (I can understand why this number has come down as FSU can't be trusted to lay a number to anyone at this point.  They are a complete Jekyl and Hyde team but they do have the superior athletes in this one.  One thing FSU has shown over the past season and a half is that they rebound well after a loss and they play well on the road.  BC has a very mediocre offense and a defense who hasn't really faced a very good offense yet. Add in the trend that in this series the away team has won and covered the spread the past 4 years.)

LSU+4 (Might have to see this line rise a little more to make a play.  I just don't see this Georgia team with their defense playing anything but a back and forth close game with LSU.  Georgia has recently played poorly as a home favorite and well as a road dog.)

Miss St. +5.5 (Just too many points for an underrated and tough SEC team at home.  I think this line may be due to the fact that GTech housed the overrated Tar Heels at home which was a good spot for them to come out fired up.  A question mark for this game is how Miss St. comes out against a non conference opponent after their failed last minute upset of LSU.)

Air Force +3 (Air Force is a little bit more talented in my opinion than Navy this season but that hasn't mattered much in the past.  Navy has won the last 6 meetings and 5 of them as dogs. Is this Air Force's year to break the streak?  This trend is holding me back a little, have to think about it more.

Cal +4 (I was going to lock this in early at 5.5 but was stubborn hoping it would pop to the key # of 6.  The low number is the only thing holding me back at this point but will probably still
bite.  Obviously Cal is dogged due to their 42-3 throttling by Oregon.  They ran into a buzzsaw that was more up for the game than them.  Maybe they thought too highly of themselves or maybe
they were foolishly thinking of USC the following week, I don't know for sure.  Bottom line is Cal is not a good road team and should be fired up to show their true worth against a national powerhouse who has not proved much this year.  One thing that worries me is with a master motivator like Carroll, how will this team respond to the Stafon Johnson tragedy?)
10 comments
comment Post A Comment
53percent says:
10/03/09 11:24AM
gl, imo. pts will not come into play at 7 in ou-mia....ou wins by that or loses outright
bushman9 says:
10/03/09 12:00PM
Cuse +8

Minn -2.5

Both 1 u
bushman9 says:
10/03/09 12:10PM
Syracuse +8 (1u)
Minnesota -2.5
(1u)
Florida State -3(-130)/-3.5
(1u) split the bet

bushman9 says:
10/03/09 12:29PM
Cincinnati -27 (2u)

Notre Dame -11.5 (2u)

LSU +4 (2u)

Air Force +3 (1u)

Stanford -6 (1u)



bushman9 says:
10/03/09 01:25PM
gl 53, who like in that matchup?
bushman9 says:
10/03/09 01:56PM
Ole Miss -9.5 (1u)

Miami +7/+7.5 (2u bet split)
bushman9 says:
10/03/09 01:56PM
Ole Miss -9.5 (1u)

Miami +7/+7.5 (2u bet split)
53percent says:
10/03/09 03:21PM
staying away, under 51.5 is a solid play though...i got tripped up on syr myself... ty for turning me on to maryland
53percent says:
10/03/09 05:18PM
sweating this ill +8, its my biggest bet of the day and bought off, 200 psu -3 at half but riding the other 800.

 

need air force or fsu one to play big tailed you on both

bushman9 says:
10/03/09 11:56PM
53, When is Illinois going to play to their potential?  Bad break man.  Great call on the under Miami.  Wish Air Force made it happen in OT or FSU came back, today could've gone better with a couple breaks.

Overall a disappointing day at 4-5.  I should've stuck with original leans of Wisconsin and not went with that crap team Minnesota.  They are flat out a mediocre team who cannot be trusted in any game.  Their qb is very pedestrian.  The same can be said about ND.  I thought with the overwhelming support of Wash and the line down from the original 14 I was on a value.  I could not be more wrong.  On the bright side Miami and LSU won outright as dogs and Miss bounced back.  Cuse and Cinci started strong and faded.  I still had a chance with Cinci in the 4th.  I chalked up FSU as a loss at half and they came back only to mess with my emotions.  Air Force loses in OT...A couple breaks and this could've been a decent day.  Oh well, onto next week.

18-13 ats
9-3 (2x)
9-10 (1x)
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: bushman9
Joined: March 2008
Location: New York
Team:
Occupation:

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories

Advertisement