nfl playoff-Jets at Bengals (write-up)

What goes up must come down...eventually.  The Jets dominated the Bengals on all fronts in Week 17 playing with the utmost passion, desire, and urgency.  On the other side, the Bengals team was able to muster only one first down in the first half due to penalty and its defense got totally gashed by the Jets running game.  At this point, the Jets could not look any better to the betting world and the Bengals could not look any worse.

In looking at the result of this game ultimately you have to ask who wanted it more.  That answer is obviously the Jets.  The Bengals simply did not need this game.  Yes, they were playing for the 3rd seed in the playoffs but they already had a home game next week locked up.  In my opinion, Marvin Lewis was taking a let’s see what happens approach.  The following excerpt was taken from an article written by Geoff Hobson:

    “Even as the players headed to the bus to take them to The Meadowlands for Sunday night’s game, they weren’t sure how Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis was going to play the regular-season finale against the Jets.

    “What’s going on?” asked one starter and when the answer was a shrug, he shrugged back.

    Head coach Marvin Lewis tipped his hand with the inactive list when he sat starting running back Cedric Benson and started rookie Bernard Scott. Also out are three defensive starters, tackle Domata Peko, left ... [More]

The Oakland Raiders (2003-Present): A Case Study

Since their Super Bowl defeat in the 2002-03 season the Raiders have consistently been the worst NFL franchise year in and year out.  In the past six seasons they have averaged a mere 4 wins per year which is especially poor considering the league is designed to create parity.  In the past three weeks they have lost to the Broncos by 20, the Houston Texans by 23 and the Giants by 37 while scoring a respective 3, 6 and 7 points.  JaMarcus Russell is leading the offense with a Ryan Leaf like 47.1 passer rating (Leaf's actual career rating was 50.)  One thing that has been constant for the Raiders is there propensity to burn your money, especially in their home games.  As you can see from the numbers below the Raiders have only covered more than 2 home spreads one time since 2003.  However, the Raiders have only been a double digit home underdog one time (last year they were 0-1 ATS.)  If you straight up faded the Raiders for the last six seasons you would be 58-37 (61%) ATS and if you faded at home you'd be a mindblowing 34-47 (73%) ATS.  This research has led to me ask several questions:

Question 1: Why has it taken the linesmakers so long to catch up with how bad the Raiders are (six years and counting)?
Question 2: Since the Raiders have been double digit dogs only once in the past 6 years have the linesmakers finally caught up? or
Question 3: Are the linesmakers still underestimating how bad the Raiders are this season? C... [More]

NFL Thursday Game Notes

Opening Line Pitt -4.5
Current Line Pitt -6

LY at tenn pitt favored by 1 lost the game 31-14
Steelers rushed 24 times for 71 yards (3.0 avg)
Titans rushed 31 times for 117 yards (3.8 avg)
Steelers passed 26 for 42 for 303 yards and 2 ints (11.6 avg)
Titans passed 20-29 for 206 yards and 0 ints (10.3 avg)
Pitt fumbled twice
Tenn had 5 sacks vs 1 for Pitt
LY
Pitt avg. 206.3 yards passing/gm and 105.6 yards rushing/gm
Tenn avg. 176.2 yards passing/gm and 137.4 yards rushing/gm
Pitt allowed avg. 156.9 yards passing/gm and 80.3 rushing/gm
Tenn allowed avg. 199.8 yards passing/gm and 93.9 rushing/gm

titans as dogs of 3+ points regular season
06-07 9-3 ats (year team started 0-5, finished 8-8)
07-08 3-0 ats
08-09 1-0 ats

steelers as favs of 4.5 to 6.5 reg season
08-09 1-3 ats
layed 6.5 at home to texans won 38-17
layed 6 on road at cleveland won 10-6
layed 6 to baltimore at home won 23-20
layed 4.5 to san diego at home won 11-10

pitt LY home record
6 wins at home vs.
texans 38-17
baltimore 23-20
chargers 11-10
bengals 27-10
cowboys 20-13
cleveland 31-0

2 losses at home vs.
giants 21-14
colts 24-20

tenn LY road record
6 wins on road vs.
cinci 24-7
baltimore 13-10
kc 34-10
bears 21-14
jags 24-14
detroit 47-10

2 losses on road vs.
texans 13-12
colts 23-0

Tenn
Key Additions for game: DT Jovan Haye WR Kenny Britt[More]

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week 4 nfl sunday

Excuse the short post its been a long day of drinking...
leans as of now:

KC +9.5 (again pride at home indivison) and Under 47
Texans +7 (again they're better than shown but Kubiak sucks)
Bucs -1.5 (not enough respect)
Skins +10.5 (not enough respect)
Bears +3 (fired up squad)

was thinking Niners but confused on that with all the movement...

NFL Week 2 Writeups/Leans/Plays

Leans as of now, Will pare down:

Raiders +3.5
-this is a battle of two below average ball teams.  Everyone saw the Chiefs hang tough with a chance to tie the ballgame on the road vs The Pats while on Monday Night the Raiders get pasted at Home vs the Broncos.  I don't think the Chiefs are as good as they looked and I don't think the Raiders are as bad as they looked. 
Their also has to be motivation here for the Raiders wanting to make up for their woeful performance.  No one likes to be embarrassed especially on primetime and I look for this defense, especially the talented secondary to be playing with a chip on their shoulders this week.  Maybe the egos and big signings the Raiders made this off-season made them a little overconfident and cocky, and hopefully this first week brought them down to earth.  Another angle I like about this in-division matchup is that it is usually a tightly contested game.  The Raiders lost at home to the Chiefs 12-10 but beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead 20-17 with both numbers falling under the line set at 3.5 and I think  this hook could prove large here.

Vikes +2
-the Colts are an above average football team no question but I don't see them as the elite team they were a couple years ago.  They are a better team than they showed last week for sure but their offense looked a bit rusty and their run defense was pretty poor, getting shredded for 183 yards.  ... [More]

NFL Week 1

My leans so far:

Buffalo Bills Even Improved team on both sides of the ball with key additions on defense and offense and another year under the belts of Edwards, Lynch, and Receiving Corps. They go up against a good Seahawks team with a great defense returning all of their starters.  I have questions whether the Hawks can overcome their offensive deficiencies with a makeshift right side of the offensive line and no established go to receiver with both Engram and Branch out.  The line is saying the Seahawks are a 3 point favorite over the Bills on a nuetral field and I see these teams as being even giving value on the Bills at anything under -3.  Although the Bills were 4-4 last year at home those losses were to the Pats, Giants, Broncos(which they should have won), and Cowboys.  They are a very capable team and should be hungry in their season opener.

Houston Texans +6 1/2

Tennessee Titans +3 (-115)

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2

Green Bay -2 1/2

Write-ups to come for remaining games.