bushman9's Blog

NFL Thursday Game Notes

By bushman9 | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, September 08, 2009 03:08 PM   12 comments
Opening Line Pitt -4.5
Current Line Pitt -6

LY at tenn pitt favored by 1 lost the game 31-14
Steelers rushed 24 times for 71 yards (3.0 avg)
Titans rushed 31 times for 117 yards (3.8 avg)
Steelers passed 26 for 42 for 303 yards and 2 ints (11.6 avg)
Titans passed 20-29 for 206 yards and 0 ints (10.3 avg)
Pitt fumbled twice
Tenn had 5 sacks vs 1 for Pitt
LY
Pitt avg. 206.3 yards passing/gm and 105.6 yards rushing/gm
Tenn avg. 176.2 yards passing/gm and 137.4 yards rushing/gm
Pitt allowed avg. 156.9 yards passing/gm and 80.3 rushing/gm
Tenn allowed avg. 199.8 yards passing/gm and 93.9 rushing/gm

titans as dogs of 3+ points regular season
06-07 9-3 ats (year team started 0-5, finished 8-8)
07-08 3-0 ats
08-09 1-0 ats

steelers as favs of 4.5 to 6.5 reg season
08-09 1-3 ats
layed 6.5 at home to texans won 38-17
layed 6 on road at cleveland won 10-6
layed 6 to baltimore at home won 23-20
layed 4.5 to san diego at home won 11-10

pitt LY home record
6 wins at home vs.
texans 38-17
baltimore 23-20
chargers 11-10
bengals 27-10
cowboys 20-13
cleveland 31-0

2 losses at home vs.
giants 21-14
colts 24-20

tenn LY road record
6 wins on road vs.
cinci 24-7
baltimore 13-10
kc 34-10
bears 21-14
jags 24-14
detroit 47-10

2 losses on road vs.
texans 13-12
colts 23-0

Tenn
Key Additions for game: DT Jovan Haye WR Kenny Britt
Key Subtractions: DT Albert Haynesworth
Key Players Back: WR Gage QB Collins RB White RB C. Johnson C Mawae T Roos DE Kearse
DE Vanden Bosch DT Tony Brown LB Bulluck CB Finnegan CB Harper FS Griffin

Pitt
Key additions for game: DE Ziggy Hood
Key Subtractions: LB Foote CB McFadden, G Kendall Simmons
Key Players Back: WR Ward WR Holmes QB Roethlisberger RB Parker TE Miller DE Keisel
NT Hampton LB Woodley LB Farrior LB Harrison LB Timmons (Questionable) CB Taylor
SS Polomalu CB Gay

12 comments
comment Post A Comment
TheBallDontLie says:
09/08/09 03:10PM
The Titans number 1 Nate Washington probably wont suit up. And if he does his hammy will be hindering him
bushman9 says:
09/08/09 03:11PM
Thanks for the good point, that is also why I left him off of Key additions for game.
bushman9 says:
09/08/09 04:00PM
Write-up for the game:

The first thing that popped into my head before the line for this game was released was
the 8-0 ats record of reigning super bowl champs the the past eight opening weeks.  Going
against this trend is a very difficult proposition to get past when thinking of backing
the Titans but at this point I am strongly considering doing just that.  The oddsmakers
clearly know how good (and popular amongs bettors) of a team the Pittsburg Steelers are
and throw in the 8-0 ats superbowl champs trend and all of this was strongly factored into
the opening line of Pittsburg laying 4.5.  The thing about this great Pittsburg team is that
if you look at last years results they had a tendancy to beat up on the bad to mediocre teams
and play closer games with the good to very strong teams (Week3 L 6-15 at Philly, week 4 W 23-20
vs Balt, week 8 L 14-21 vs Giants, week 10 L 20-24 vs Indy, week 11 W 11-10 vs SD, week 14 W 20-13
vs Dallas, week 15 L 14-31 at Tenn) with the lone exception being a 33-10 drubbing of the Pats in
New England.  Also, as I noted above when the Steelers were laying 4.5 to 6.5 points last year
they were a paltry 1-3 ats.

Now let me move onto the Titans.  Everyone has overstated that they lost All-World Dt Albert
Haynesworth who is a certainly a great playmaker.  However, I believe what may be a bigger loss
is the departure of their D-coordinator whiz Jim Schwartz.  If you remember correctly, in the
Titans 31-14 victory of Pittsburgh Big Albert himself did not even play.  The stout Titans
defense that was one of the top units in the league last year return gritty veterans by the
names of Kearse, Vanden Bosch, Tony Brown, Bulluck, Finnegan, Harper, and Griffin who are
itching to prove they can still "play" defense without Big Bad Albert.  I'd also like to point
out that one of the things the Titans do well is get to the QB.  Last year against Pittsburg's
biggest weakness (the Offensive line), they picked up 5 sacks.  This year that weakness may
be worse with the loss of Guard Kendall Simmons.  Another angle that is key in backing the
Titans is their record as underdogs, a role they have seemed to absolutly relish the past few years. 
As I noted above, the Titans as dogs of 3 or greaters points were 9-3 ats in 2006-07, 3-0 ats in
2007-08 and 1-0 ats in 2008-09.  Now they get to play opening night, in front of a national
audience (albeit on the NFL network), against the defending World Champions and dogged by the
now margin of 6 points.  In last year's matchup, a strength of the Titans, their running game
and offensive line, was able to gain 117 yards on the ground and run for 2 touchdowns while
Collins managed an impressive game with 207 yards no ints and 1 touchdown.

While I don't know for sure whether the Steelers will come out like gangbusters or the Titans
will be in the game until the end, the 1.5 line move from 4.5 to 6 and hopefully higher by
game time leads me to believe that the value lies with the visiting Titans who under Jeff Fisher
have reminded us over the past few years to never count them out, especially as an underdog.
What better team than the Tennessee Titans to break up the staggering ATS run of defending
SB champs?
NevadaNightmare says:
09/08/09 04:10PM
Agreed!  Love your write up!  I'm on the Titans +6 as well.  If the line gets better right before the game I'll put more on it at that time.
jpfinne says:
09/08/09 05:09PM
Taking the pts - Titian will be ready and this game is historically tight.
Leaning towards under
lancer89074 says:
09/08/09 05:31PM
First of all, the game played last year was in Tennessee and also the Steelers were coming off of a 5 game win streak and the Titans had just lost a game the previous week. This was a bad spot for Pittsburgh. The Titans were clearly the better team that day.

In your key additions, you failed to mention the new punt and kickoff returner who is their new sensation. Ever heard of Stefan Logan? Apparently not, but you will. Also, Pittsburgh has their punter Sepulveda back after missing almost all of last year.

How much of an impact will be the loss of their defensive coordinator? If their run is shut down can Kerry Collins shred this Steeler defense? Personally, I doubt it.
bushman9 says:
09/08/09 06:44PM


Good points, yes I've heard a few things about Stefan Logan but I think it's bigger than Sepulveda is back as their punt game was very poor last year.  I read somewhere that he got a standing ovation when announced during preseason, so I'm sure Steeler Nation is happy to see him back.  As good as Steelers D is up front, I Johnson and White should get something done behind their strong O-line and if they don't, NO I don't trust Kerry Collins to put the team on his back.
titusnuts says:
09/08/09 10:26PM
Great write-up and information. Thank you for sharing and best of luck
TitanFan says:
09/08/09 10:32PM
The Titans are better without Schwartz  as the DC.   Chuck Cecil is more aggressive and a better fit for the team.  He was the defensive backs coach for the Titans, before the promotion. 
bushman9 says:
09/10/09 10:59AM
Getting 1 unit down so far on:


Titans +6.5



3TB3 says:
09/10/09 11:46AM
Last year the Titans met the Steelers in game 15 with the winner becoming the #1 seed in the AFC. Tennesse demolished the Steelers 31-14. In that game Defensive linemen Albert Haynesworth, Kyle Vandenbosch and Vickerson did NOT dress for the Titans. The latter two still on the team and will start on Thursday.

Only reason the Titans got edged and upset 13-10 by Ravens in playoffs was in effect 5 turnovers all in the red zone getting no points each time(plus Chris Johnson got hurt).

Hard to give 6 points which means Steelers must win by a TD over such a team.

3TB3 says:
09/10/09 11:50AM
Also last year in practically all Steelers games vs. playoff teams, Steelers had a hard time with all of them, even losing a couple of them. Giants, Eagles, Chargers, Ravens and Cardinals. They are not a vastly superior team to top level teams.
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